Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

COP Stage Analysis

ConocoPhillips

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 134.10Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 87/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +29.0%USD 103.94 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	134.10	121.76	10.16	26252427	Upward Expansion	53	33
2026-10-02	126.75	121.32	5.85	31511757	Upward Expansion	47	35
2026-09-25	127.30	120.97	6.42	30733063	Upward Expansion	62	50
2026-09-18	131.83	120.48	11.86	48044076	Upward Expansion	66	74
2026-09-11	137.35	119.74	16.97	21851614	Upward Expansion	77	86
2026-09-04	134.26	118.83	14.06	31769241	Upward Expansion	76	82
2026-08-28	130.35	117.88	11.32	29335688	Upward Expansion	71	76
2026-08-21	134.87	116.96	15.99	38203948	Balance	75	74
2026-08-14	125.95	115.70	7.23	32127978	Balance	61	45
2026-08-07	116.84	114.72	-0.16	38090420	Balance	8	20
2026-07-31	119.69	114.03	5.96	33265629	Balance	14	17
2026-07-24	119.47	113.22	7.12	27921399	Rotation Down	4	6
2026-07-17	113.96	112.24	1.78	29146469	Rotation Down	-28	38
2026-07-10	109.04	111.46	-3.99	34796004	Rotation Down	-22	49
2026-07-03	104.73	110.97	-6.59	28872220	Deceleration	-32	49
2026-06-26	105.96	110.55	-3.52	40518612	Deceleration	-11	30
2026-06-19	107.74	109.93	-4.21	48953529	Deceleration	-5	14
2026-06-12	116.98	109.21	4.82	33092135	Deceleration	18	11
2026-06-05	117.14	108.28	5.54	31458599	Deceleration	21	13
2026-05-29	113.98	107.20	0.33	31403985	Deceleration	29	16
2026-05-22	120.46	106.30	7.70	28170873	Deceleration	37	23
2026-05-15	122.41	105.14	10.65	31428331	Deceleration	41	25
2026-05-08	113.05	103.88	2.60	46598673	Deceleration	36	24
2026-05-01	122.30	102.96	13.62	48865688	Deceleration	43	30
2026-04-24	120.88	101.95	13.55	39752649	Upward Expansion	48	40
2026-04-17	115.20	101.12	8.90	43651194	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-04-10	121.67	100.27	20.17	43275164	Upward Expansion	67	66
2026-04-03	129.58	99.23	32.98	42796905	Upward Expansion	75	86
2026-03-27	132.83	97.93	41.58	45870470	Upward Expansion	90	94
2026-03-20	126.00	96.72	31.82	68952303	Upward Expansion	88	93
2026-03-13	121.01	95.67	24.63	60791907	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-03-06	116.23	94.71	18.09	68619106	Upward Expansion	83	91
2026-02-27	112.64	93.87	12.47	33147481	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-02-20	109.73	93.11	9.05	32750393	Upward Expansion	79	88
2026-02-13	109.79	92.51	10.35	39931986	Upward Expansion	87	89
2026-02-06	106.04	91.81	5.32	44368603	Upward Expansion	84	81
2026-01-30	102.70	91.36	1.74	44974157	Upward Expansion	80	75
2026-01-23	96.90	90.96	-3.74	36096337	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-01-16	96.75	90.64	-4.49	48065526	Rotation Up	66	60
2026-01-09	96.08	90.47	-5.86	51267747	Rotation Up	31	42
2026-01-02	95.28	90.40	-5.54	20367533	Balance	31	40
2025-12-26	90.19	90.04	-11.79	18176625	Balance	11	21
2025-12-19	90.59	89.78	-10.44	49613486	Balance	10	18
2025-12-12	94.14	89.51	-7.09	38651921	Balance	21	20
2025-12-05	92.31	89.33	-9.68	36494760	Deceleration	12	12
2025-11-28	87.39	89.09	-14.53	22441332	Deceleration	-13	12
2025-11-21	86.09	89.10	-13.20	32538480	Deceleration	-28	21
2025-11-14	89.18	89.16	-12.36	35410835	Rotation Down	-26	25
2025-11-07	84.75	89.04	-17.14	38064926	Rotation Down	-36	54
2025-10-31	86.73	88.98	-17.15	28177130	Rotation Down	-19	45
2025-10-24	85.92	88.85	-17.89	34592595	Rotation Down	-23	40
2025-10-17	84.41	89.26	-18.24	31519317	Balance	-28	30
2025-10-10	85.54	89.70	-16.18	27648434	Balance	-5	7
2025-10-03	91.91	90.02	-12.67	30563676	Balance	33	16
2025-09-26	96.12	89.85	-8.25	36865806	Balance	51	22
2025-09-19	89.72	89.82	-14.92	39566728	Balance	31	15
2025-09-12	90.22	89.97	-13.91	29834574	Balance	51	34
2025-09-05	90.72	90.04	-12.47	29080875	Balance	53	45
2025-08-29	96.60	90.13	-7.02	28497818	Balance	42	48
2025-08-22	94.46	90.05	-9.58	28076033	Balance	35	31
2025-08-15	92.28	90.13	-11.87	37904205	Balance	19	16
2025-08-08	90.91	90.42	-12.83	43251797	Balance	12	9
2025-08-01	89.79	90.62	-12.28	28395198	Balance	-9	11
2025-07-25	91.91	90.84	-12.83	26453786	Balance	-1	16
2025-07-18	88.71	90.85	-15.07	26298685	Balance	-9	11
2025-07-11	92.55	90.91	-11.41	33543233	Balance	19	20
2025-07-04	90.68	91.03	-13.87	32181931	Balance	-7	17
2025-06-27	87.29	91.28	-16.15	43247417	Downward Expansion	-27	18
2025-06-20	91.66	91.81	-9.48	44940877	Downward Expansion	-20	13
2025-06-13	93.86	92.30	-7.88	49350740	Downward Expansion	-23	18
2025-06-06	84.43	92.74	-17.75	32698448	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2025-05-30	82.62	93.46	-18.71	41191044	Downward Expansion	-60	38
2025-05-23	82.47	94.11	-18.06	34519322	Downward Expansion	-63	36
2025-05-16	88.71	94.66	-14.74	38091020	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-05-09	85.02	95.03	-14.61	50833775	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2025-05-02	87.73	95.68	-12.95	32835001	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2025-04-25	88.03	96.36	-10.78	30727232	Downward Expansion	-56	64
2025-04-18	85.40	96.73	-10.25	26174931	Downward Expansion	-60	62
2025-04-11	82.91	97.34	-14.85	67077590	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2025-04-04	82.82	97.84	-10.94	50272596	Downward Expansion	-69	33
2025-03-28	98.25	98.42	-4.71	28953101	Downward Expansion	-22	12
2025-03-21	97.82	98.73	-7.04	91345949	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2025-03-14	94.97	98.98	-9.75	55698101	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2025-03-07	86.98	99.32	-19.65	56004936	Downward Expansion	-77	60
2025-02-28	95.16	99.82	-15.30	33701468	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2025-02-21	94.00	99.96	-17.55	34164265	Downward Expansion	-55	52
2025-02-14	92.38	100.29	-20.67	43277970	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2025-02-07	93.64	100.79	-18.86	38886229	Downward Expansion	-59	33
2025-01-31	94.09	101.21	-19.04	26018059	Downward Expansion	-48	25
2025-01-24	96.94	101.60	-17.86	23680036	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2025-01-17	100.77	101.95	-13.61	30550199	Downward Expansion	-49	31
2025-01-10	97.03	102.07	-14.71	23143535	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2025-01-03	96.24	102.26	-17.47	21635761	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2024-12-27	92.27	102.56	-21.82	20785566	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2024-12-20	90.56	103.12	-23.32	64142205	Balance	-76	70
2024-12-13	96.17	103.78	-20.66	33379649	Balance	-59	44
2024-12-06	98.27	104.38	-19.94	31533588	Balance	-42	16
2024-11-29	103.14	104.92	-15.77	45677555	Balance	6	12
2024-11-22	106.39	105.27	-12.63	34334652	Balance	12	15
2024-11-15	106.93	105.77	-11.21	23471773	Balance	-6	5
2024-11-08	106.24	106.22	-14.07	29934874	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2024-11-01	101.95	106.75	-14.15	34059014	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2024-10-25	98.85	107.50	-18.50	20967460	Downward Expansion	-55	25
2024-10-18	99.90	108.16	-19.14	25592696	Downward Expansion	-45	21
2024-10-11	104.46	108.65	-15.51	25463580	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2024-10-04	108.29	108.89	-12.12	37194990	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2024-09-27	99.00	108.79	-19.88	37559921	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-09-20	103.87	109.03	-16.12	66916904	Downward Expansion	-52	35
2024-09-13	97.85	109.03	-20.38	31109143	Downward Expansion	-73	44
2024-09-06	100.23	109.20	-15.80	23413682	Downward Expansion	-57	29
2024-08-30	107.58	109.29	-13.89	25112022	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-08-23	105.32	109.11	-15.91	22800051	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2024-08-16	105.11	109.06	-15.32	28288123	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2024-08-09	101.96	108.88	-15.01	35804377	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-08-02	99.29	108.93	-17.59	39127966	Deceleration	-49	44
2024-07-26	104.07	109.21	-15.81	26386383	Deceleration	-26	25
2024-07-19	107.35	109.32	-14.20	29752312	Deceleration	-16	18
2024-07-12	106.21	109.37	-17.02	21874468	Rotation Down	-21	27
2024-07-05	105.66	109.36	-16.87	14276554	Rotation Down	-25	49
2024-06-28	107.38	109.29	-14.10	30169206	Rotation Down	-28	57
2024-06-21	104.52	109.26	-16.55	43984188	Rotation Down	-31	59
2024-06-14	102.69	109.34	-17.63	29769213	Deceleration	-42	46
2024-06-07	105.14	109.45	-14.50	29663211	Deceleration	-34	36
2024-05-31	109.35	109.49	-10.15	41869186	Deceleration	9	22
2024-05-24	110.07	109.52	-10.00	16648184	Deceleration	18	26
2024-05-17	114.26	109.46	-6.69	28158067	Deceleration	38	25
2024-05-10	114.44	109.46	-5.07	24897696	Upward Expansion	45	35
2024-05-03	113.83	109.47	-3.83	28351632	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-04-26	121.29	109.22	3.09	20304829	Upward Expansion	66	86
2024-04-19	120.49	108.85	5.22	19540795	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-04-12	122.18	108.47	3.57	21917522	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-04-05	124.34	108.17	3.84	19139110	Rotation Up	91	93
2024-03-29	118.53	107.77	-1.87	20763612	Rotation Up	57	72
2024-03-22	114.57	107.55	-4.77	22784800	Balance	40	50
2024-03-15	111.79	107.28	-5.00	44453200	Balance	30	25
2024-03-08	105.23	107.14	-10.63	27338095	Balance	-29	16
2024-03-01	106.39	107.21	-10.15	27108551	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2024-02-23	103.85	107.12	-11.71	23697422	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2024-02-16	102.97	107.18	-11.27	35761327	Downward Expansion	-52	39
2024-02-09	102.80	107.18	-11.91	29088601	Downward Expansion	-55	56
2024-02-02	102.31	107.01	-11.48	26279208	Downward Expansion	-58	59
2024-01-26	103.79	106.73	-9.15	24505313	Downward Expansion	-24	41
2024-01-19	99.76	106.42	-12.23	23394876	Balance	-39	40
2024-01-12	103.30	106.13	-8.56	26913080	Balance	-10	6
2024-01-05	107.76	105.86	-3.28	19446563	Balance	24	13
2023-12-29	107.34	105.40	-5.51	13682215	Balance	22	12
2023-12-22	108.81	104.92	-4.29	29580529	Balance	13	10
2023-12-15	105.92	104.37	-6.33	65059847	Balance	7	12
2023-12-08	103.64	103.94	-6.40	29653340	Balance	-2	13
2023-12-01	106.56	103.47	-3.74	29742754	Balance	9	14
2023-11-24	106.80	102.94	-3.01	14485077	Balance	15	15
2023-11-17	105.97	102.47	-3.19	25913297	Upward Expansion	26	18
2023-11-10	106.38	102.01	-1.02	24895909	Upward Expansion	37	22
2023-11-03	110.19	101.73	3.43	33690710	Upward Expansion	53	38
2023-10-27	108.39	101.25	7.17	27023488	Upward Expansion	53	37
2023-10-20	114.15	100.61	9.80	22546100	Upward Expansion	68	48

Price vs TrendAbove+10.1%

Trend directionRising+6.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+29.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+22.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+14.1%

Price momentumPositive+10.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.35×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

53 / ±100

-24.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

33 /100

-52.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

COP Directional State ↗ COP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up39

Upward Expansion66

Deceleration85

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 20%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	+2.9%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	+12.7%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	+9.6%
Deceleration	2026-05-01	2026-07-03	Developing	-14.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-24	Established	+24.7%
Rotation Up	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	+0.7%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-01-02	New	+1.2%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	+7.2%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	+3.8%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-10-17	Established	-6.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-06-27	Extended	-5.4%
Balance	2024-11-15	2024-12-20	Developing	-15.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-11-08	Established	+4.2%
Deceleration	2024-07-19	2024-08-02	New	-7.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 86/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.16
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +10.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -4.7%
Energy regime cohort: 44th percentile59 in cohort

Test COP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.35×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore COP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 130.69falling

Slow Activity USD 123.36rising

Trend Reference USD 121.76+10.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 103.94+29.0% close margin

Structural low USD 102.69shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +32.9%

From structural high -5.3%

From structural low +60.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	-0.4%-10.9% to +14.8%	+48.0%	+48.0%	-1.8%	+68.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-1.2%-17.3% to +25.6%	+36.4%	+36.4%	-2.9%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-3.3%-14.5% to +36.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+7.0%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+25.5%-2.1% to +49.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+10.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

COP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map