Weekly structural research · AMS · Industrials

BAMNB Stage Analysis

Koninklijke BAM Groep nv

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 11.67Tenure NewBenchmark ^AEX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 54−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 39/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +89.3%EUR 6.17 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.67	10.78	8.38	3351271	Upward Expansion	54	39
2026-10-02	12.50	10.68	17.97	4281572	Deceleration	73	48
2026-09-25	11.92	10.55	13.67	3115449	Deceleration	59	34
2026-09-18	11.73	10.46	14.21	3496815	Deceleration	46	28
2026-09-11	11.35	10.39	10.60	2936723	Deceleration	37	24
2026-09-04	11.42	10.32	10.20	1057777	Deceleration	52	38
2026-08-28	11.65	10.23	13.03	560389	Deceleration	54	43
2026-08-21	11.58	10.13	13.52	608609	Deceleration	44	36
2026-08-14	12.03	10.03	17.16	695527	Deceleration	53	36
2026-08-07	11.43	9.93	12.46	659804	Deceleration	40	27
2026-07-31	11.59	9.86	15.67	892876	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-07-24	11.00	9.78	11.27	689461	Upward Expansion	50	45
2026-07-17	11.28	9.72	14.48	564458	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-07-10	11.87	9.64	21.95	891420	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-07-03	12.53	9.53	29.64	797514	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-06-26	12.55	9.40	33.69	544283	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-06-19	12.42	9.26	31.30	4200455	Upward Expansion	88	94
2026-06-12	11.35	9.09	20.68	1137491	Upward Expansion	81	84
2026-06-05	10.84	8.96	20.38	784448	Upward Expansion	76	74
2026-05-29	11.14	8.84	25.20	10820194	Upward Expansion	80	61
2026-05-22	9.15	8.73	2.53	4407160	Balance	45	21
2026-05-15	8.86	8.68	2.91	4203653	Balance	42	20
2026-05-08	9.36	8.62	8.44	3878420	Balance	54	42
2026-05-01	9.05	8.58	5.89	1775070	Balance	48	33
2026-04-24	9.00	8.54	5.14	2449726	Balance	37	30
2026-04-17	9.39	8.49	10.15	3046160	Balance	44	29
2026-04-10	9.52	8.45	14.11	4081807	Balance	35	15
2026-04-03	8.74	8.39	9.53	4576889	Balance	7	17
2026-03-27	8.18	8.34	5.08	4091302	Balance	-3	19
2026-03-20	8.42	8.32	8.71	4565575	Upward Expansion	9	13
2026-03-13	8.45	8.29	5.72	3298819	Upward Expansion	32	21
2026-03-06	8.76	8.27	12.75	4203062	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-02-27	9.25	8.24	14.66	3780580	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-02-20	9.44	8.17	19.24	6790317	Deceleration	69	45
2026-02-13	9.23	8.09	20.72	3592740	Deceleration	55	33
2026-02-06	8.98	8.02	18.62	3716691	Upward Expansion	48	31
2026-01-30	8.57	7.97	13.79	2413589	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-01-23	8.57	7.92	15.22	4589105	Upward Expansion	61	49
2026-01-16	9.12	7.88	22.80	4224750	Upward Expansion	66	76
2026-01-09	9.21	7.80	28.47	3543161	Upward Expansion	71	78
2026-01-02	9.29	7.74	34.05	2827903	Upward Expansion	77	81
2025-12-26	8.93	7.67	34.25	1210531	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-12-19	8.99	7.61	36.54	4811903	Upward Expansion	74	76
2025-12-12	8.62	7.54	33.46	2995734	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-12-05	8.57	7.47	33.30	5398094	Balance	66	52
2025-11-28	8.28	7.39	31.21	5298360	Balance	58	24
2025-11-21	7.41	7.30	21.00	2769488	Balance	11	8
2025-11-14	7.54	7.22	21.19	3236033	Balance	17	9
2025-11-07	7.16	7.13	16.35	3796083	Upward Expansion	14	13
2025-10-31	7.80	7.04	25.35	4509051	Upward Expansion	39	19
2025-10-24	7.62	6.93	22.75	5312041	Upward Expansion	35	19
2025-10-17	7.12	6.84	18.55	11598259	Upward Expansion	30	19
2025-10-10	8.11	6.76	38.51	4485848	Upward Expansion	67	47
2025-10-03	7.82	6.65	32.26	3451879	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-09-26	7.60	6.55	33.11	3894053	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-09-19	8.08	6.46	44.68	5541624	Upward Expansion	73	49
2025-09-12	7.81	6.34	45.35	3816283	Upward Expansion	68	46
2025-09-05	7.35	6.23	40.57	2840671	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-08-29	7.38	6.12	43.45	5302047	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-08-22	7.75	6.00	50.23	2186800	Upward Expansion	71	62
2025-08-15	7.73	5.87	55.20	3748976	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-08-08	7.82	5.74	60.56	4120297	Upward Expansion	80	59
2025-08-01	7.19	5.61	51.38	4710670	Upward Expansion	54	50
2025-07-25	6.96	5.51	45.29	8368624	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-07-18	7.25	5.41	52.26	3501207	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-07-11	7.50	5.30	57.92	4437536	Upward Expansion	79	68
2025-07-04	7.05	5.18	52.75	3512918	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-06-27	7.21	5.07	56.40	3788632	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-06-20	6.94	4.96	54.75	4314434	Upward Expansion	68	72
2025-06-13	7.32	4.85	63.00	5248033	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-06-06	7.18	4.74	61.20	5457536	Upward Expansion	82	93
2025-05-30	7.14	4.63	63.89	6984914	Upward Expansion	89	96
2025-05-23	6.91	4.52	62.10	7907577	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-05-16	6.56	4.43	53.92	8474320	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-05-09	5.97	4.36	46.07	7876985	Upward Expansion	87	90
2025-05-02	5.73	4.30	43.26	7084437	Deceleration	87	63
2025-04-25	5.10	4.24	32.67	3533496	Deceleration	72	39
2025-04-18	4.77	4.20	28.05	3218139	Upward Expansion	49	30
2025-04-11	4.46	4.16	25.39	5022628	Upward Expansion	46	32
2025-04-04	4.41	4.12	21.63	5237745	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-03-28	4.92	4.09	26.31	4108083	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-03-21	4.84	4.04	24.34	3129107	Upward Expansion	71	87
2025-03-14	4.85	3.99	27.07	5027120	Upward Expansion	72	87
2025-03-07	4.82	3.94	26.58	5841151	Upward Expansion	79	88
2025-02-28	4.80	3.89	25.55	6425890	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-02-21	4.58	3.85	18.69	7461096	Balance	77	72
2025-02-14	4.42	3.82	14.47	9833428	Balance	69	42
2025-02-07	3.88	3.81	3.56	4178207	Balance	17	9
2025-01-31	3.95	3.81	6.61	3260164	Balance	24	11
2025-01-24	3.82	3.81	6.05	2511247	Balance	18	12
2025-01-17	3.93	3.81	8.30	2869179	Balance	37	29
2025-01-10	3.92	3.80	11.80	4382495	Deceleration	40	33
2025-01-03	4.12	3.79	18.98	2877762	Deceleration	59	34
2024-12-27	3.92	3.77	15.07	1472585	Deceleration	33	19
2024-12-20	4.01	3.76	19.19	6681102	Deceleration	39	17
2024-12-13	3.77	3.75	10.78	2831978	Deceleration	19	16
2024-12-06	3.95	3.74	17.19	3489039	Deceleration	29	22
2024-11-29	3.78	3.72	14.50	3359333	Deceleration	24	24
2024-11-22	3.73	3.70	14.01	2584427	Deceleration	27	24
2024-11-15	3.88	3.69	21.74	3273737	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-11-08	3.87	3.68	20.82	3960964	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-11-01	4.01	3.67	24.75	3454987	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-10-25	4.12	3.66	27.22	4023234	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-10-18	4.34	3.62	35.17	4438645	Upward Expansion	82	89
2024-10-11	4.24	3.57	31.84	4418078	Balance	81	78
2024-10-04	4.08	3.54	29.16	5890245	Balance	64	43
2024-09-27	3.82	3.50	21.54	6810731	Balance	43	20
2024-09-20	3.54	3.47	16.44	2948799	Rotation Down	-15	16
2024-09-13	3.35	3.45	11.04	2644164	Rotation Down	-23	30
2024-09-06	3.31	3.42	12.88	3325503	Deceleration	-29	33
2024-08-30	3.51	3.39	15.83	2433647	Deceleration	1	22
2024-08-23	3.46	3.35	16.47	2475284	Deceleration	0	26
2024-08-16	3.35	3.31	14.07	3038530	Deceleration	4	22
2024-08-09	3.33	3.27	17.26	5092710	Upward Expansion	13	16
2024-08-02	3.41	3.24	21.51	8592180	Upward Expansion	36	34
2024-07-26	3.89	3.20	35.68	6171252	Upward Expansion	64	65
2024-07-19	3.90	3.14	37.46	3986499	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-07-12	4.08	3.08	39.64	5406665	Upward Expansion	82	76
2024-07-05	3.97	3.02	39.56	5662600	Upward Expansion	81	61
2024-06-28	3.65	2.96	31.38	4414398	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-06-21	3.70	2.91	34.46	5215810	Upward Expansion	68	54
2024-06-14	3.56	2.87	32.04	4941933	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-06-07	3.69	2.82	37.51	5608511	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-05-31	3.59	2.77	38.21	4831897	Upward Expansion	69	56
2024-05-24	3.68	2.71	41.55	5623508	Upward Expansion	78	55
2024-05-17	3.44	2.65	34.51	5302963	Upward Expansion	58	49
2024-05-10	3.25	2.59	28.77	4615135	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-05-03	3.16	2.53	29.49	10200258	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-04-26	3.63	2.48	50.93	4116071	Upward Expansion	77	77
2024-04-19	3.53	2.42	52.54	4177985	Upward Expansion	78	72
2024-04-12	3.56	2.36	51.89	8646568	Upward Expansion	89	75
2024-04-05	3.52	2.30	52.40	8578242	Upward Expansion	93	77
2024-03-29	3.10	2.24	35.97	3908896	Upward Expansion	79	72
2024-03-22	2.94	2.19	30.60	4641866	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-03-15	3.05	2.15	40.50	4996681	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-03-08	3.02	2.11	38.62	7137115	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-03-01	2.88	2.07	34.49	9164730	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-02-23	2.84	2.03	33.00	9546539	Upward Expansion	95	95
2024-02-16	2.67	2.00	25.16	19186850	Upward Expansion	93	79
2024-02-09	2.29	1.97	8.44	4229202	Upward Expansion	66	56
2024-02-02	2.21	1.96	8.59	2866728	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-01-26	2.31	1.94	14.07	3779164	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-01-19	2.27	1.91	18.04	3332559	Deceleration	67	55
2024-01-12	2.31	1.89	19.57	4436754	Deceleration	66	53
2024-01-05	2.17	1.87	13.35	3596617	Upward Expansion	48	48
2023-12-29	2.14	1.85	10.52	2408572	Upward Expansion	61	56
2023-12-22	2.16	1.84	12.02	4299454	Upward Expansion	64	64
2023-12-15	2.20	1.83	13.41	4859524	Upward Expansion	67	85
2023-12-08	2.24	1.81	17.37	5607291	Upward Expansion	68	89
2023-12-01	2.28	1.79	21.33	9257888	Upward Expansion	80	93
2023-11-24	2.27	1.77	22.26	5314991	Upward Expansion	88	96
2023-11-17	2.21	1.75	20.35	12206199	Upward Expansion	88	95
2023-11-10	2.07	1.74	15.19	8155924	Rotation Up	79	75
2023-11-03	1.95	1.73	10.04	8583160	Rotation Up	56	34
2023-10-27	1.67	1.72	-2.42	3015953	Balance	-54	47
2023-10-20	1.66	1.73	-3.97	2197369	Balance	-48	31

Price vs TrendAbove+8.2%

Trend directionRising+9.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+89.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-32.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-13.6%

Price momentumPositive+22.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.32×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

54 / ±100

+16.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

39 /100

+14.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BAMNB Directional State ↗ BAMNB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance38

Rotation Up54

Upward Expansion75

Deceleration61

Rotation Down17

Downward Expansion4

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 65%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 1%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-02	Developing	+9.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-07-31	Developing	+4.0%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-05-22	Developing	+11.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-03-20	New	-9.0%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-02-20	New	+2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-02-06	Developing	+4.2%
Balance	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	+13.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-11-07	Extended	+19.8%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+12.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-04-18	Developing	-0.7%
Balance	2025-01-17	2025-02-21	Developing	+16.6%
Deceleration	2024-11-22	2025-01-10	Developing	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2024-11-15	Developing	-10.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AEX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 8.38
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +22.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +10.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 83th percentile6 in cohort

Test BAMNB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.59×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.32×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BAMNB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 11.93rising

Slow Activity EUR 11.40rising

Trend Reference EUR 10.78+8.2% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 6.17+89.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 8.54shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +39.4%

From structural high -11.1%

From structural low +69.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AEX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	35	+0.3%-22.0% to +23.0%	+51.4%	+51.4%	+0.5%	+68.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+2.1%-18.6% to +48.7%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+5.5%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+13.8%-20.2% to +68.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+16.1%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+42.0%-22.1% to +94.1%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+38.5%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BAMNB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map