Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

AIOT Stage Analysis

PowerFleet, Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 2.70Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -71−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 69/100directional strength

Maturity 29/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -39.5%USD 4.46 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.70	3.43	-41.82	6775558	Rotation Down	-71	69
2026-10-02	2.81	3.44	-40.12	12017783	Rotation Down	-41	59
2026-09-25	2.80	3.46	-40.78	7371249	Rotation Down	-43	60
2026-09-18	2.88	3.49	-38.01	7324591	Rotation Down	-42	61
2026-09-11	3.00	3.52	-35.78	4924487	Rotation Down	-27	57
2026-09-04	3.02	3.55	-36.61	6011396	Rotation Down	-28	50
2026-08-28	3.05	3.61	-36.59	7432199	Balance	-28	38
2026-08-21	3.04	3.68	-37.24	9565351	Balance	-26	24
2026-08-14	3.11	3.75	-38.11	30782084	Rotation Up	-20	16
2026-08-07	4.41	3.84	-12.18	5723995	Rotation Up	37	23
2026-07-31	3.92	3.87	-18.11	3707261	Rotation Up	12	13
2026-07-24	3.73	3.92	-21.91	5767901	Rotation Up	26	24
2026-07-17	4.23	3.97	-13.48	4876472	Rotation Up	35	32
2026-07-10	4.24	4.01	-17.30	5686130	Rotation Up	27	29
2026-07-03	4.37	4.05	-13.65	7034541	Rotation Up	36	39
2026-06-26	3.74	4.08	-25.80	8366340	Rotation Up	1	21
2026-06-19	3.98	4.12	-25.17	11907201	Rotation Up	4	27
2026-06-12	4.22	4.13	-19.25	8612660	Downward Expansion	17	29
2026-06-05	3.84	4.16	-25.34	9724108	Downward Expansion	-7	16
2026-05-29	3.91	4.19	-28.06	9009754	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2026-05-22	3.41	4.23	-36.03	7398130	Downward Expansion	-41	33
2026-05-15	3.23	4.30	-39.42	5939558	Downward Expansion	-44	37
2026-05-08	3.41	4.37	-37.36	5252711	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2026-05-01	3.26	4.41	-37.77	7838439	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2026-04-24	3.34	4.47	-36.17	9831113	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2026-04-17	3.43	4.54	-33.94	5610983	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2026-04-10	2.95	4.60	-40.46	7173760	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2026-04-03	3.08	4.68	-35.96	6481074	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2026-03-27	2.91	4.74	-37.80	9612266	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2026-03-20	2.79	4.80	-43.18	11675139	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2026-03-13	3.13	4.86	-38.55	5852708	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2026-03-06	3.39	4.91	-35.15	8377854	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2026-02-27	3.57	4.93	-33.50	8678518	Rotation Down	-84	90
2026-02-20	3.79	4.94	-30.79	6005902	Rotation Down	-55	71
2026-02-13	3.89	4.96	-29.36	15747853	Upward Expansion	-41	36
2026-02-06	4.84	4.98	-14.77	8569518	Upward Expansion	14	9
2026-01-30	5.11	4.96	-12.42	4346262	Upward Expansion	36	22
2026-01-23	5.39	4.93	-8.34	3494889	Upward Expansion	53	35
2026-01-16	5.55	4.90	-6.04	4625035	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-01-09	5.51	4.87	-8.03	5531355	Upward Expansion	59	49
2026-01-02	5.25	4.83	-10.87	3167439	Upward Expansion	53	46
2025-12-26	5.43	4.82	-10.18	3894857	Balance	57	50
2025-12-19	5.36	4.79	-11.01	7398779	Balance	54	39
2025-12-12	5.28	4.77	-12.54	6289050	Balance	49	21
2025-12-05	5.26	4.79	-15.17	5779101	Balance	38	18
2025-11-28	4.97	4.79	-19.78	4381245	Balance	26	17
2025-11-21	4.45	4.80	-25.46	7638999	Balance	13	13
2025-11-14	4.92	4.82	-21.12	11214243	Upward Expansion	33	16
2025-11-07	4.89	4.82	-22.29	7357002	Upward Expansion	38	24
2025-10-31	5.10	4.81	-21.82	4787663	Upward Expansion	49	28
2025-10-24	5.39	4.79	-16.04	5212678	Rotation Up	58	33
2025-10-17	5.52	4.79	-12.40	9549652	Rotation Up	38	25
2025-10-10	4.66	4.80	-24.53	8087963	Rotation Up	20	18
2025-10-03	5.09	4.85	-19.88	6654815	Rotation Up	22	44
2025-09-26	5.19	4.87	-17.61	5286126	Rotation Up	23	45
2025-09-19	5.34	4.94	-15.91	9652733	Balance	31	43
2025-09-12	5.25	5.01	-15.76	8613763	Balance	9	24
2025-09-05	5.02	5.10	-18.18	7241037	Downward Expansion	-10	18
2025-08-29	4.67	5.13	-23.33	6930401	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-08-22	4.72	5.17	-23.05	7579167	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-08-15	4.57	5.23	-26.45	13706803	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-08-08	3.87	5.28	-37.67	7345843	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2025-08-01	3.80	5.34	-36.92	8128403	Downward Expansion	-75	51
2025-07-25	4.57	5.43	-26.18	4887606	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-07-18	4.42	5.51	-28.24	7872703	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-07-11	4.24	5.58	-30.60	8479546	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2025-07-04	4.34	5.66	-29.46	6472538	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2025-06-27	4.46	5.74	-26.53	15181367	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2025-06-20	4.54	5.83	-22.31	12253981	Downward Expansion	-59	59
2025-06-13	4.45	5.91	-23.91	8710481	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2025-06-06	4.70	5.96	-20.24	7841068	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-05-30	4.55	5.99	-21.32	14395842	Downward Expansion	-61	32
2025-05-23	4.82	5.99	-15.49	11748777	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2025-05-16	5.97	6.00	1.82	7666052	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2025-05-09	5.30	5.99	-3.51	6769388	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2025-05-02	5.15	5.99	-6.56	4403143	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-04-25	5.12	5.98	-4.07	5575171	Rotation Down	-62	64
2025-04-18	4.77	5.99	-4.86	4969221	Rotation Down	-39	61
2025-04-11	4.84	5.99	-5.48	12127695	Rotation Down	-40	58
2025-04-04	4.27	6.00	-10.19	14904371	Balance	-43	52
2025-03-28	5.59	6.00	5.84	7608897	Balance	-22	26
2025-03-21	5.85	5.98	8.14	5858889	Balance	4	13
2025-03-14	5.91	5.95	9.89	8669688	Upward Expansion	20	10
2025-03-07	5.93	5.92	8.27	11208600	Upward Expansion	39	41
2025-02-28	7.05	5.87	25.70	11522569	Upward Expansion	54	59
2025-02-21	7.43	5.78	29.48	7373512	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-02-14	8.10	5.69	39.77	25090772	Deceleration	70	39
2025-02-07	5.95	5.59	7.17	9437221	Deceleration	14	11
2025-01-31	5.91	5.55	7.34	5858054	Deceleration	25	18
2025-01-24	6.35	5.49	14.55	5198669	Deceleration	31	18
2025-01-17	6.04	5.43	11.60	9676378	Deceleration	33	18
2025-01-10	5.67	5.37	8.48	10456708	Upward Expansion	35	22
2025-01-03	6.65	5.34	25.17	9833503	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-12-27	6.80	5.27	28.23	10901217	Upward Expansion	62	47
2024-12-20	6.53	5.22	25.36	13147227	Upward Expansion	62	63
2024-12-13	6.61	5.18	25.43	6388643	Upward Expansion	66	79
2024-12-06	6.90	5.14	33.47	6915351	Upward Expansion	69	81
2024-11-29	7.04	5.08	42.65	5503351	Upward Expansion	78	82
2024-11-22	7.11	5.01	47.47	12600510	Upward Expansion	83	71
2024-11-15	5.95	4.93	27.76	11784103	Upward Expansion	66	34
2024-11-08	5.40	4.86	13.35	4301475	Upward Expansion	56	28
2024-11-01	4.77	4.82	6.71	4492765	Upward Expansion	43	24
2024-10-25	5.10	4.82	13.44	4378797	Upward Expansion	54	43
2024-10-18	5.52	4.83	24.29	3466630	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-10-11	5.38	4.80	22.81	6931330	Deceleration	61	48
2024-10-04	5.01	4.74	17.12	4637144	Deceleration	50	35
2024-09-27	5.19	4.67	22.76	4050546	Deceleration	56	29
2024-09-20	4.96	4.60	19.82	8591355	Deceleration	50	25
2024-09-13	4.91	4.54	21.65	3375547	Deceleration	48	24
2024-09-06	4.53	4.48	20.15	3143574	Deceleration	35	19
2024-08-30	4.99	4.43	25.71	3354109	Deceleration	52	28
2024-08-23	4.89	4.37	23.44	4912500	Deceleration	39	17
2024-08-16	4.82	4.31	24.37	3651932	Deceleration	37	16
2024-08-09	4.64	4.26	27.81	5662136	Deceleration	29	15
2024-08-02	4.32	4.22	20.62	4202228	Deceleration	21	15
2024-07-26	4.77	4.17	29.80	2740338	Deceleration	34	19
2024-07-19	4.96	4.13	32.48	4396991	Deceleration	31	16
2024-07-12	4.69	4.06	21.12	3541509	Deceleration	14	16
2024-07-05	4.25	3.99	9.87	2322843	Deceleration	15	21
2024-06-28	4.57	3.92	22.60	18901872	Deceleration	28	26
2024-06-21	4.28	3.85	15.13	4163986	Deceleration	34	23
2024-06-14	4.53	3.78	22.09	2088648	Upward Expansion	45	31
2024-06-07	4.59	3.71	28.19	3009165	Upward Expansion	61	46
2024-05-31	5.31	3.63	52.52	2251370	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-05-24	5.32	3.51	51.48	3227871	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-05-17	5.46	3.40	58.62	4141866	Upward Expansion	77	68
2024-05-10	5.20	3.28	55.68	6062969	Upward Expansion	76	56
2024-05-03	4.99	3.18	52.74	4114262	Upward Expansion	76	52
2024-04-26	4.53	3.08	41.10	3475720	Upward Expansion	66	50
2024-04-19	3.99	2.99	29.70	3021664	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-04-12	4.19	2.93	29.16	3913468	Upward Expansion	66	85
2024-04-05	4.74	2.86	45.45	7000514	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-03-29	5.34	2.78	63.01	9114080	Upward Expansion	94	96
2024-03-22	4.53	2.68	38.00	7292223	Upward Expansion	88	73
2024-03-15	3.63	2.59	14.18	5969009	Deceleration	73	44
2024-03-08	2.99	2.54	-7.31	708495	Deceleration	40	26
2024-03-01	3.18	2.51	-3.73	641451	Deceleration	47	35
2024-02-23	2.99	2.49	-8.11	520508	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-02-16	3.06	2.48	-5.21	298952	Upward Expansion	49	41
2024-02-09	3.24	2.48	-1.62	792331	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-02-02	3.17	2.47	-2.43	1211811	Upward Expansion	63	64
2024-01-26	3.01	2.46	-6.69	824570	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-01-19	3.36	2.46	4.16	420527	Rotation Up	78	91
2024-01-12	3.27	2.45	3.75	496642	Rotation Up	50	81
2024-01-05	3.07	2.45	0.22	521702	Rotation Up	43	69
2023-12-29	3.42	2.46	7.58	870176	Rotation Up	62	73
2023-12-22	2.80	2.45	-12.03	734428	Rotation Up	38	51
2023-12-15	2.63	2.46	-17.01	769574	Balance	14	26
2023-12-08	2.31	2.47	-25.16	619025	Balance	-7	19
2023-12-01	2.34	2.49	-24.21	652633	Downward Expansion	-7	16
2023-11-24	2.36	2.51	-24.12	554402	Downward Expansion	-24	15
2023-11-17	2.35	2.53	-24.44	1045824	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2023-11-10	2.07	2.54	-32.69	1372483	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2023-11-03	1.80	2.57	-40.33	767126	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2023-10-27	1.84	2.61	-35.89	614770	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2023-10-20	2.05	2.66	-31.18	1388100	Downward Expansion	-58	42

Price vs TrendBelow-21.2%

Trend directionFalling-11.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-39.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-36.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-41.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-24.5%

Price momentumNegative-8.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.35×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-71 / ±100

-44.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

69 /100

+11.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AIOT Directional State ↗ AIOT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance10

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration40

Rotation Down72

Downward Expansion93

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-10.6%
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-08-28	New	+0.3%
Rotation Up	2026-06-19	2026-08-14	Developing	-21.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-06-12	Established	+24.5%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-02-27	New	-5.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-02-13	Developing	-25.9%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-26	Developing	+22.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-3.5%
Rotation Up	2025-09-26	2025-10-24	Developing	+3.9%
Balance	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	+1.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-09-05	Established	-2.5%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-04-25	New	+5.8%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-27.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-20.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing48

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -41.82
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -8.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -31.4%
Technology regime cohort: 91th percentile23 in cohort

Test AIOT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.35×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AIOT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 2.79falling

Slow Activity USD 3.40falling

Trend Reference USD 3.43-21.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.46-39.5% close margin

Structural low USD 2.55shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +15.6%

Annualized volatility +70.8%

From structural high -54.1%

From structural low +5.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+5.7%-26.4% to +15.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+1.0%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-5.5%-12.4% to +14.8%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-16.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+13.7%-19.8% to +55.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-18.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-16.9%-39.0% to +5.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-58.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AIOT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map