Weekly structural research ยท IST ยท Utilities

ENERY Stage Analysis

Enerya Enerji Anonim Sirketi

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 13.51Tenure NewBenchmark XU100.IS
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction 88โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 95/100directional strength
Maturity 28/100lifecycle context
Confidence 79/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +127.3%TRY 5.94 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2513.519.5240.29404079596Upward Expansion8895
2026-09-1812.859.4129.95587241057Upward Expansion9096
2026-09-1112.189.3113.14306316478Upward Expansion8990
2026-09-0411.049.225.34330816352Upward Expansion7762
2026-08-289.839.17-10.97190166415Balance511
2026-08-218.819.17-20.1021222288Balance-4638
2026-08-148.979.19-17.4649843875Balance-919
2026-08-078.339.19-21.7221828147Balance-2923
2026-07-319.199.22-12.1112615533Rotation Up1113
2026-07-249.559.23-12.1142561566Rotation Up2830
2026-07-179.459.23-13.4758956879Rotation Up3044
2026-07-109.719.24-13.3459185698Rotation Up2447
2026-07-039.589.26-15.13145229856Balance2031
2026-06-269.719.29-13.1846795456Balance2425
2026-06-199.489.30-17.9551443215Balance-410
2026-06-129.469.35-13.69121500264Downward Expansion-2011
2026-06-058.689.35-19.3420747396Downward Expansion-5441
2026-05-298.819.37-17.8229293731Downward Expansion-5036
2026-05-228.649.41-20.05144917388Downward Expansion-5538
2026-05-158.609.44-23.38187095778Downward Expansion-4523
2026-05-089.019.46-23.29305546329Downward Expansion-3317
2026-05-018.909.50-20.70164841869Downward Expansion-3718
2026-04-249.249.50-17.17446937983Downward Expansion-3720
2026-04-179.299.54-17.33352547243Downward Expansion-5333
2026-04-108.949.59-17.23259843643Downward Expansion-5960
2026-04-038.439.65-14.6175929175Downward Expansion-6466
2026-03-278.479.77-11.9675112766Downward Expansion-6562
2026-03-208.599.85-12.3852620849Balance-6548
2026-03-139.199.94-5.8368686866Balance-5121
2026-03-069.219.96-2.5277184367Balance-3917
2026-02-2710.029.96-0.1481388820Balance-1812
2026-02-2010.019.92-0.85183360477Balance-2313
2026-02-139.429.86-7.44196365618Balance-3818
2026-02-069.429.80-2.1585135522Balance-2216
2026-01-309.929.731.61206959329Rotation Down-1823
2026-01-239.339.642.7898606941Rotation Down-2743
2026-01-169.089.553.5754168507Deceleration-3542
2026-01-099.369.4811.8876896543Deceleration214
2026-01-029.459.3721.0649635911Deceleration69
2025-12-269.559.2326.0150735303Deceleration148
2025-12-199.829.0830.6857307424Deceleration3520
2025-12-1210.118.9236.5965170251Deceleration3930
2025-12-0510.478.7647.26100285012Deceleration4330
2025-11-2810.038.5544.68226685870Deceleration3523
2025-11-2110.998.3660.43215442041Deceleration5329
2025-11-149.508.1345.77124794047Deceleration1912
2025-11-079.417.9741.55202793170Deceleration2014
2025-10-319.777.7848.31107122629Deceleration3319
2025-10-249.737.5750.31134120148Deceleration3226
2025-10-179.257.3555.55167087390Deceleration3527
2025-10-1010.197.1565.82349045552Deceleration4233
2025-10-038.806.9443.98283301031Upward Expansion4745
2025-09-2610.436.7668.55187129074Upward Expansion6565
2025-09-1910.796.5475.79329917595Upward Expansion6767
2025-09-1210.786.2995.42322051698Upward Expansion6869
2025-09-0511.906.05114.04300111035Upward Expansion9096
2025-08-2911.025.7893.89407499122Upward Expansion8694
2025-08-2211.115.5398.93231598069Upward Expansion9698
2025-08-1510.045.2993.06252368135Upward Expansion9396
2025-08-089.205.0879.58235415504Upward Expansion8993
2025-08-018.594.9175.02192199103Upward Expansion8794
2025-07-258.224.7672.79261133437Upward Expansion8894
2025-07-187.714.6269.95150706046Upward Expansion8492
2025-07-117.324.5164.96207170982Upward Expansion8092
2025-07-047.124.4265.00304573579Upward Expansion8192
2025-06-276.704.3372.93478415878Upward Expansion8091
2025-06-206.994.2588.02337672144Upward Expansion9395
2025-06-136.084.1765.35328515117Upward Expansion8787
2025-06-065.394.1146.62263595209Upward Expansion7880
2025-05-304.874.0741.47337489189Upward Expansion6571
2025-05-235.184.0347.02523513480Rotation Up8280
2025-05-165.083.9841.50400646640Rotation Up6070
2025-05-094.283.9424.37239216205Rotation Up2748
2025-05-024.283.9228.65202759295Rotation Up2737
2025-04-254.133.8921.66267759037Rotation Up1928
2025-04-184.563.8737.46717896372Rotation Up2320
2025-04-113.843.8316.01379767893Downward Expansion-4734
2025-04-043.443.814.67144057499Downward Expansion-5755
2025-03-283.293.81-2.31487458438Downward Expansion-6849
2025-03-213.143.81-0.15172399501Deceleration-5340
2025-03-143.763.80-0.02204518728Deceleration-1821
2025-03-073.693.791.88184999342Rotation Down-3132
2025-02-283.583.768.08119141749Rotation Down-2750
2025-02-213.48โ€”โ€”117018867Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-143.61โ€”โ€”169805418Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-073.59โ€”โ€”128460908Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-313.65โ€”โ€”167877618Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-243.75โ€”โ€”131988039Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-173.87โ€”โ€”70060591Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-104.08โ€”โ€”79739811Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-034.16โ€”โ€”73595853Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-274.08โ€”โ€”96232093Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-204.29โ€”โ€”298767969Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-134.60โ€”โ€”220953659Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-064.43โ€”โ€”87485770Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-294.39โ€”โ€”136212081Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-224.49โ€”โ€”142406750Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-154.39โ€”โ€”267435805Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-084.04โ€”โ€”180203521Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-013.83โ€”โ€”75959873Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-253.70โ€”โ€”153785356Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-183.73โ€”โ€”236850577Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-113.65โ€”โ€”233397928Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-043.63โ€”โ€”248280328Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-273.31โ€”โ€”462604715Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-203.47โ€”โ€”517795322Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-133.18โ€”โ€”147836790Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-063.39โ€”โ€”144466012Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-303.26โ€”โ€”91879384Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-233.07โ€”โ€”121072157Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-163.17โ€”โ€”153442797Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-093.07โ€”โ€”222845584Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-023.11โ€”โ€”158026094Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-263.12โ€”โ€”198755625Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-192.96โ€”โ€”106773018Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-122.96โ€”โ€”136332246Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-053.04โ€”โ€”168713005Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-283.14โ€”โ€”188169514Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-213.15โ€”โ€”166264075Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-142.87โ€”โ€”356093313Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-072.72โ€”โ€”160817335Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-312.85โ€”โ€”324419521Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-243.00โ€”โ€”394952088Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-172.99โ€”โ€”754938494Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-102.75โ€”โ€”308260798Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-032.75โ€”โ€”264016860Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-262.75โ€”โ€”329728405Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-192.75โ€”โ€”293683777Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-122.75โ€”โ€”41516751Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-052.65โ€”โ€”261216121Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-292.67โ€”โ€”676629680Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-222.78โ€”โ€”627145135Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-152.38โ€”โ€”229448419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-082.40โ€”โ€”329579812Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-012.41โ€”โ€”429985921Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-232.46โ€”โ€”522132515Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-162.52โ€”โ€”510992749Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-092.47โ€”โ€”549306184Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-022.48โ€”โ€”818895100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-262.22โ€”โ€”468344293Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-192.21โ€”โ€”933172259Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-121.87โ€”โ€”451404121Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-051.78โ€”โ€”252250260Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-291.80โ€”โ€”839884032Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-222.13โ€”โ€”408459287Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-152.27โ€”โ€”528724859Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-082.40โ€”โ€”665968528Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-012.33โ€”โ€”612795970Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-242.23โ€”โ€”590408190Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-172.27โ€”โ€”1012474612Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-102.23โ€”โ€”898813114Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-032.19โ€”โ€”930759640Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-272.21โ€”โ€”1284224274Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-202.30โ€”โ€”1072211460Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-132.38โ€”โ€”2200357549Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-062.54โ€”โ€”1825182183Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+41.9%
Trend directionRising+3.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+127.3%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+48.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+40.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+53.5%
Price momentumPositive+59.5%
Volume balanceDemand-led7.58ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

88 / ยฑ100

+82.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

95 /100

+84.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance17
Rotation Up86
Upward Expansion98
Deceleration42
Rotation Down11
Downward Expansion24

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 83 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 18%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-09-042026-09-25New+22.4%
Balance2026-08-072026-08-28New+17.9%
Rotation Up2026-07-102026-07-31New-5.3%
Balance2026-06-192026-07-03New+1.1%
Downward Expansion2026-03-272026-06-12Developing+11.7%
Balance2026-02-062026-03-20Developing-8.8%
Rotation Down2026-01-232026-01-30New+6.3%
Deceleration2025-10-102026-01-16Established-10.9%
Upward Expansion2025-05-302025-10-03Established+80.5%
Rotation Up2025-04-182025-05-23Developing+13.6%
Downward Expansion2025-03-282025-04-11New+16.7%
Deceleration2025-03-142025-03-21New-16.5%
Rotation Down2025-02-282025-03-07New+3.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing23
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution59
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
100/100
Current Relative Strength
40.29
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+59.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+57.9%
Utilities regime cohort
100th percentile7 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.85ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume7.58ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TRY 12.49rising
Slow Activity TRY 9.97rising
Trend Reference TRY 9.52+41.9% close margin
Current Fair Value TRY 5.94+127.3% close margin
Structural low TRY 8.06shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.1%
Annualized volatility +36.7%
From structural high -0.6%
From structural low +67.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs XU100.IS Regime survived Read
Near term5+22.7%-14.3% to +37.5%+60.0%+60.0%+9.5%+80.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+58.6%-9.0% to +126.1%+50.0%+50.0%+47.7%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+105.8%+105.8% to +105.8%+100.0%+100.0%+84.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+80.8%+80.8% to +80.8%+100.0%+100.0%+29.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context