Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical

REYN Stage Analysis

Reynolds Consumer Products Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 22.01Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -27−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 49/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -9.1%USD 24.21 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	22.01	23.12	-17.15	5772989	Rotation Down	-27	49
2026-10-02	22.32	23.10	-16.22	7712275	Rotation Down	-28	60
2026-09-25	21.67	23.10	-18.54	6837582	Rotation Down	-35	63
2026-09-18	22.12	23.20	-14.52	7656695	Rotation Down	-29	41
2026-09-11	21.75	23.26	-15.46	7342939	Deceleration	-34	38
2026-09-04	21.85	23.32	-15.91	10262553	Deceleration	-0	14
2026-08-28	24.05	23.33	-7.60	6413923	Deceleration	40	28
2026-08-21	25.47	23.29	-2.04	6417193	Upward Expansion	46	36
2026-08-14	26.02	23.23	-2.66	5349239	Upward Expansion	52	40
2026-08-07	26.29	23.14	-0.69	6155805	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-07-31	24.72	23.04	-1.95	7055792	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-07-24	25.38	22.97	1.10	4970909	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-07-17	26.01	22.88	1.90	5011613	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-07-10	26.27	22.79	-1.35	6378771	Upward Expansion	72	89
2026-07-03	27.18	22.72	3.81	6230006	Rotation Up	90	95
2026-06-26	26.82	22.59	3.34	8360003	Rotation Up	56	75
2026-06-19	23.87	22.52	-12.14	4409305	Balance	36	51
2026-06-12	23.53	22.51	-11.40	4742065	Balance	14	23
2026-06-05	22.46	22.52	-13.75	4762206	Balance	-19	14
2026-05-29	21.67	22.58	-20.85	4301906	Downward Expansion	-37	18
2026-05-22	21.79	22.64	-18.60	5213845	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2026-05-15	21.15	22.68	-20.49	5819823	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2026-05-08	21.64	22.74	-19.43	9500973	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2026-05-01	20.55	22.77	-19.91	6101370	Downward Expansion	-64	37
2026-04-24	20.83	22.88	-18.16	6521593	Downward Expansion	-62	36
2026-04-17	22.11	22.94	-11.92	4955769	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-04-10	21.94	22.94	-7.95	4499554	Downward Expansion	-61	68
2026-04-03	20.94	22.96	-8.87	3505824	Downward Expansion	-62	75
2026-03-27	20.67	23.03	-7.33	4518556	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2026-03-20	20.58	23.09	-11.21	5686972	Balance	-72	66
2026-03-13	21.24	23.16	-10.65	5616778	Balance	-36	24
2026-03-06	22.46	23.18	-6.97	3786402	Balance	16	13
2026-02-27	24.54	23.17	-0.07	4424579	Balance	60	37
2026-02-20	24.08	23.06	-2.47	3883160	Balance	43	16
2026-02-13	23.47	22.96	-4.05	5109774	Balance	19	11
2026-02-06	22.31	22.88	-10.12	11021312	Balance	-1	9
2026-01-30	22.70	22.83	-10.71	6242326	Balance	4	4
2026-01-23	23.56	22.77	-8.03	2462617	Balance	21	10
2026-01-16	23.45	22.67	-8.75	3404407	Balance	16	14
2026-01-09	23.24	22.57	-10.81	4093382	Balance	12	15
2026-01-02	22.59	22.48	-11.85	2876003	Upward Expansion	15	14
2025-12-26	22.82	22.42	-12.98	2868231	Upward Expansion	28	16
2025-12-19	23.33	22.36	-10.46	3972494	Upward Expansion	43	27
2025-12-12	23.95	22.29	-8.07	4025400	Upward Expansion	57	37
2025-12-05	23.52	22.23	-11.90	3797854	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-11-28	24.47	22.18	-7.90	3321212	Upward Expansion	69	60
2025-11-21	23.80	22.10	-6.52	3510299	Upward Expansion	58	52
2025-11-14	23.74	22.05	-10.10	3752897	Upward Expansion	57	47
2025-11-07	24.15	22.01	-9.21	5685569	Upward Expansion	67	46
2025-10-31	23.72	21.96	-13.95	8996091	Upward Expansion	63	37
2025-10-24	22.73	21.93	-16.48	3848390	Upward Expansion	52	37
2025-10-17	22.93	21.92	-14.63	3827980	Upward Expansion	54	41
2025-10-10	22.67	21.91	-14.26	5904780	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-10-03	23.94	21.90	-12.21	7614239	Rotation Up	77	46
2025-09-26	22.63	21.87	-16.62	17067349	Rotation Up	32	27
2025-09-19	22.12	21.90	-19.63	4474217	Rotation Up	30	29
2025-09-12	22.35	21.94	-17.92	4109586	Rotation Up	25	51
2025-09-05	23.09	21.95	-14.53	4486782	Rotation Up	38	58
2025-08-29	22.53	21.96	-16.74	4574969	Rotation Up	29	39
2025-08-22	22.71	22.08	-17.05	3725527	Balance	17	28
2025-08-15	21.91	22.19	-21.34	3973091	Balance	-2	13
2025-08-08	21.95	22.31	-21.50	5010957	Downward Expansion	-18	15
2025-08-01	21.17	22.40	-22.20	9788462	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-07-25	21.29	22.52	-24.14	7739073	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-07-18	20.88	22.67	-25.46	4304597	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-07-11	21.00	22.84	-24.51	5194736	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-07-04	20.92	23.04	-25.45	5188872	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-06-27	20.46	23.20	-26.37	15970426	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2025-06-20	20.57	23.39	-23.42	5444670	Downward Expansion	-68	75
2025-06-13	20.29	23.57	-24.94	6197120	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2025-06-06	20.89	23.75	-23.64	5304956	Downward Expansion	-71	64
2025-05-30	21.21	23.91	-21.32	3989975	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-05-23	21.12	24.05	-20.69	3496788	Downward Expansion	-73	52
2025-05-16	22.20	24.28	-19.07	4038199	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-05-09	21.97	24.48	-14.93	3648394	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2025-05-02	22.17	24.68	-14.81	4546181	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2025-04-25	22.09	24.86	-12.70	3515220	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2025-04-18	22.50	25.09	-5.87	2365952	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2025-04-11	22.74	25.35	-7.44	5622159	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-04-04	22.76	25.58	-0.70	3917044	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-03-28	22.64	25.83	-11.15	3175605	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-03-21	22.52	26.06	-14.04	5135534	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2025-03-14	22.27	26.27	-15.13	3360953	Downward Expansion	-77	63
2025-03-07	23.25	26.46	-14.03	3243084	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2025-02-28	23.29	26.62	-17.07	4461407	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2025-02-21	23.32	26.73	-20.22	2689378	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2025-02-14	22.77	26.81	-24.30	3659049	Downward Expansion	-86	76
2025-02-07	23.53	26.88	-20.05	4718543	Downward Expansion	-82	53
2025-01-31	26.01	26.92	-11.94	2103278	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-01-24	25.91	26.91	-13.78	1917157	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2025-01-17	25.52	26.91	-14.08	2195641	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2025-01-10	24.58	26.94	-15.17	2202439	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2025-01-03	25.05	26.99	-15.80	1862328	Downward Expansion	-75	53
2024-12-27	25.71	27.02	-14.62	1736406	Deceleration	-27	26
2024-12-20	26.01	27.04	-13.15	3040162	Deceleration	-22	23
2024-12-13	26.78	27.06	-12.91	2782672	Rotation Down	-29	27
2024-12-06	25.85	27.06	-15.57	2349737	Rotation Down	-28	41
2024-11-29	26.09	27.09	-12.33	2282351	Rotation Down	-26	58
2024-11-22	26.16	27.10	-11.74	2944021	Rotation Down	-27	61
2024-11-15	25.66	27.10	-12.10	3500422	Rotation Down	-35	62
2024-11-08	25.64	27.11	-15.49	3298208	Deceleration	-38	44
2024-11-01	25.43	27.12	-12.02	4402703	Deceleration	-18	27
2024-10-25	27.85	27.14	-5.54	1687285	Deceleration	28	28
2024-10-18	28.24	27.08	-4.37	1891035	Deceleration	35	28
2024-10-11	28.07	27.01	-4.99	1970838	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-10-04	27.59	26.96	-5.63	2743586	Upward Expansion	50	40
2024-09-27	29.10	26.93	-0.58	6619635	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-09-20	30.06	26.86	3.59	7647265	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-09-13	29.85	26.76	4.29	2546087	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-09-06	30.26	26.65	11.99	2499549	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-08-30	29.43	26.50	2.71	2566786	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-08-23	28.68	26.37	-0.78	1818712	Upward Expansion	78	79
2024-08-16	28.17	26.24	-1.82	2361991	Balance	73	52
2024-08-09	27.95	26.12	2.38	3788570	Balance	30	23
2024-08-02	26.59	26.02	-2.48	1912728	Rotation Down	-9	14
2024-07-26	25.77	25.95	-8.67	2162389	Rotation Down	-29	50
2024-07-19	24.85	25.91	-14.45	1770115	Rotation Down	-43	58
2024-07-12	24.81	25.90	-18.33	2457788	Balance	-46	48
2024-07-05	25.49	25.88	-16.72	1680796	Balance	-5	11
2024-06-28	25.94	25.83	-12.70	2702804	Balance	7	8
2024-06-21	26.54	25.77	-11.17	2712271	Balance	33	16
2024-06-14	26.07	25.68	-12.94	1875656	Balance	17	11
2024-06-07	25.93	25.62	-10.81	2609336	Upward Expansion	30	17
2024-05-31	26.37	25.57	-7.23	2002099	Upward Expansion	53	41
2024-05-24	26.44	25.47	-8.83	1964975	Upward Expansion	55	48
2024-05-17	26.81	25.34	-6.64	1886968	Upward Expansion	63	50
2024-05-10	27.01	25.22	-4.35	2796654	Deceleration	68	40
2024-05-03	26.19	25.08	-6.35	2365302	Deceleration	37	20
2024-04-26	26.18	24.97	-5.86	2083995	Deceleration	34	18
2024-04-19	25.93	24.87	-3.57	2655059	Deceleration	33	19
2024-04-12	26.00	24.79	-8.95	2445008	Deceleration	35	22
2024-04-05	25.89	24.70	-10.25	2135396	Deceleration	40	27
2024-03-29	26.27	24.63	-10.14	1585145	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-03-22	25.99	24.57	-12.04	2771035	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-03-15	26.53	24.53	-8.05	9139806	Upward Expansion	65	77
2024-03-08	26.64	24.48	-9.18	3211187	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-03-01	27.05	24.44	-9.73	3360604	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-02-23	27.21	24.38	-7.91	2608518	Upward Expansion	89	92
2024-02-16	26.42	24.30	-9.87	4975214	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-02-09	25.94	24.25	-13.36	3018703	Upward Expansion	79	73
2024-02-02	25.32	24.20	-14.43	1434515	Rotation Up	71	62
2024-01-26	24.85	24.19	-15.67	1257026	Rotation Up	34	37
2024-01-19	24.74	24.21	-16.19	1017595	Rotation Up	33	37
2024-01-12	24.90	24.23	-14.01	1588647	Rotation Up	29	40
2024-01-05	24.33	24.24	-14.11	2127767	Rotation Up	17	28
2023-12-29	24.49	24.26	-17.09	1013186	Balance	20	28
2023-12-22	24.67	24.29	-17.12	1487778	Balance	8	17
2023-12-15	24.20	24.28	-18.78	2264616	Balance	-4	10
2023-12-08	23.95	24.31	-17.76	1358673	Downward Expansion	-8	15
2023-12-01	24.16	24.37	-17.34	1553221	Downward Expansion	-15	23
2023-11-24	23.80	24.37	-19.24	1071609	Downward Expansion	-23	24
2023-11-17	24.30	24.41	-17.60	1343946	Downward Expansion	-22	19
2023-11-10	24.57	24.42	-15.77	1501632	Downward Expansion	-26	20
2023-11-03	23.24	24.41	-18.59	1068172	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2023-10-27	22.59	24.45	-16.49	1818117	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2023-10-20	23.21	24.52	-17.09	1614245	Downward Expansion	-63	63

Price vs TrendBelow-4.8%

Trend directionRising+0.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-17.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-17.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-15.8%

Price momentumPositive+0.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.33×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-27 / ±100

+7.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

49 /100

+10.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

REYN Directional State ↗ REYN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion24

Deceleration53

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion54

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 32%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-0.5%
Deceleration	2026-08-28	2026-09-11	New	-9.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-21	Developing	-3.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-03	New	+1.3%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+6.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-05-29	Developing	+4.9%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-03-20	Developing	-11.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2026-01-02	Established	-0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-29	2025-10-03	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-08-22	New	+3.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-08-08	Extended	-12.4%
Deceleration	2024-12-20	2024-12-27	New	-1.2%
Rotation Down	2024-11-15	2024-12-13	Developing	+4.4%
Deceleration	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-9.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing58

Stage 2 · Advancing20

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining80

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -17.15
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +0.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 36th percentile33 in cohort

Test REYN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.92×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 6

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore REYN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 22.02falling

Slow Activity USD 23.57falling

Trend Reference USD 23.12-4.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 24.21-9.1% close margin

Structural low USD 20.22shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +30.5%

From structural high -19.4%

From structural low +8.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-0.2%-8.2% to +13.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.8%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+4.0%-11.2% to +13.6%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-5.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+3.0%+1.2% to +14.0%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-5.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+8.1%-16.0% to +10.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-34.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

REYN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map