Weekly structural research · LSE · Industrials

CSSG Stage Analysis

Croma Security Solutions Group plc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.715Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 5/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +0.1%GBP 0.7146 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.715	0.6918	-1.99	1393	Upward Expansion	55	44
2026-09-25	0.715	0.6922	-4.28	56427	Rotation Up	57	50
2026-09-18	0.73	0.6928	-2.22	171205	Rotation Up	42	49
2026-09-11	0.725	0.6928	-3.09	57940	Rotation Up	43	44
2026-09-04	0.705	0.6932	-7.59	72164	Rotation Up	28	32
2026-08-28	0.70	0.6942	-8.59	418	Rotation Up	17	28
2026-08-21	0.70	0.6955	-8.87	0	Balance	15	23
2026-08-14	0.70	0.6967	-8.70	5105	Balance	-4	12
2026-08-07	0.70	0.6983	-10.38	6417	Balance	-5	9
2026-07-31	0.675	0.7002	-13.85	1705	Balance	-22	12
2026-07-24	0.70	0.7023	-10.18	351	Downward Expansion	-7	9
2026-07-17	0.685	0.704	-11.49	5000	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2026-07-10	0.685	0.7065	-11.18	207	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2026-07-03	0.685	0.7095	-13.18	0	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2026-06-26	0.665	0.7128	-14.98	0	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2026-06-19	0.675	0.7164	-13.12	154	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2026-06-12	0.675	0.7196	-14.68	11	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2026-06-05	0.675	0.7228	-14.48	1821	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-05-29	0.675	0.726	-15.44	15095	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2026-05-22	0.675	0.7295	-16.54	10200	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2026-05-15	0.675	0.7324	-14.98	14157	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2026-05-08	0.675	0.7325	-15.91	12507	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2026-05-01	0.675	0.7326	-17.56	1646	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2026-04-24	0.675	0.7336	-18.31	20007	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2026-04-17	0.685	0.735	-19.99	12951	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2026-04-10	0.685	0.7364	-20.17	9000	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2026-04-03	0.685	0.7378	-19.69	12829	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2026-03-27	0.70	0.7399	-14.84	9960	Balance	-60	42
2026-03-20	0.715	0.7406	-13.12	32488	Balance	-27	20
2026-03-13	0.725	0.7418	-15.34	1241	Balance	-24	16
2026-03-06	0.725	0.7427	-16.05	43751	Balance	-16	15
2026-02-27	0.735	0.7451	-20.25	41356	Balance	-13	16
2026-02-20	0.73	0.7471	-19.63	36012	Balance	-25	24
2026-02-13	0.735	0.7492	-17.80	59555	Balance	-22	24
2026-02-06	0.735	0.7513	-17.77	44609	Balance	-23	21
2026-01-30	0.74	0.7526	-16.50	43709	Balance	-38	21
2026-01-23	0.735	0.7553	-16.83	92230	Balance	-40	21
2026-01-16	0.75	0.7574	-16.36	41850	Balance	-5	8
2026-01-09	0.755	0.7604	-15.37	93852	Balance	-21	13
2026-01-02	0.74	0.763	-16.09	101233	Balance	-34	16
2025-12-26	0.75	0.7662	-14.76	30348	Balance	-6	6
2025-12-19	0.76	0.769	-14.36	50184	Balance	9	10
2025-12-12	0.775	0.7714	-10.93	55014	Balance	12	15
2025-12-05	0.785	0.7734	-10.50	7775	Balance	18	21
2025-11-28	0.771	0.7744	-12.98	16637	Balance	-5	14
2025-11-21	0.771	0.7763	-11.51	2871	Downward Expansion	-5	18
2025-11-14	0.771	0.7783	-13.24	17993	Downward Expansion	-14	22
2025-11-07	0.771	0.7802	-13.39	80070	Downward Expansion	-20	17
2025-10-31	0.7807	0.7825	-12.85	30117	Downward Expansion	-27	18
2025-10-24	0.7613	0.7844	-14.34	45930	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-10-17	0.6789	0.787	-21.21	13067	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2025-10-10	0.6789	0.7923	-21.89	233158	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2025-10-03	0.7031	0.7977	-19.74	41143	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2025-09-26	0.7177	0.8022	-16.33	38825	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2025-09-19	0.7274	0.8059	-14.62	7778	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-09-12	0.7274	0.8104	-15.27	22781	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-09-05	0.7468	0.8158	-12.34	21307	Downward Expansion	-59	63
2025-08-29	0.7225	0.8188	-15.00	31405	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2025-08-22	0.7516	0.8224	-12.87	39979	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2025-08-15	0.7516	0.825	-11.09	64918	Downward Expansion	-66	43
2025-08-08	0.7952	0.8281	-5.40	24591	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2025-08-01	0.7952	0.8294	-4.94	37928	Downward Expansion	-53	46
2025-07-25	0.7952	0.8306	-5.35	26592	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2025-07-18	0.7952	0.8321	-3.94	571732	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2025-07-11	0.7758	0.8336	-5.66	87864	Balance	-61	48
2025-07-04	0.8195	0.8379	1.08	10997	Balance	-43	27
2025-06-27	0.8001	0.839	-0.84	45879	Balance	-52	27
2025-06-20	0.8389	0.837	4.41	46844	Balance	-24	11
2025-06-13	0.834	0.8355	3.18	44768	Balance	-2	3
2025-06-06	0.834	0.8333	3.55	52703	Balance	-3	4
2025-05-30	0.834	0.8304	4.57	30007	Deceleration	12	6
2025-05-23	0.834	0.8239	5.49	34669	Deceleration	11	6
2025-05-16	0.834	0.8173	6.17	45876	Deceleration	11	8
2025-05-09	0.8146	0.811	5.57	18416	Deceleration	5	7
2025-05-02	0.8292	0.8052	7.23	29986	Deceleration	13	7
2025-04-25	0.8292	0.7992	9.82	8528	Deceleration	16	7
2025-04-18	0.8292	0.7938	12.10	24430	Deceleration	19	10
2025-04-11	0.8389	0.7883	18.31	16490	Deceleration	21	11
2025-04-04	0.8389	0.7826	17.60	13279	Deceleration	30	15
2025-03-28	0.8389	0.7768	9.93	3802	Deceleration	32	17
2025-03-21	0.8389	0.7711	10.45	31160	Deceleration	34	18
2025-03-14	0.8389	0.7648	11.01	74508	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-03-07	0.8389	0.7586	10.76	37471	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-02-28	0.8292	0.7519	8.11	52270	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-02-21	0.8631	0.7465	14.65	7646	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-02-14	0.8874	0.7409	17.13	108084	Deceleration	65	40
2025-02-07	0.8389	0.7341	11.62	17036	Deceleration	43	30
2025-01-31	0.8292	0.7289	10.99	1424	Deceleration	41	29
2025-01-24	0.8292	0.7239	13.58	32033	Deceleration	43	32
2025-01-17	0.8437	0.7191	15.95	10170	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-01-10	0.834	0.7138	18.60	6161	Upward Expansion	58	47
2025-01-03	0.834	0.7089	19.44	10032	Upward Expansion	61	58
2024-12-27	0.8389	0.7039	21.84	4422	Upward Expansion	64	75
2024-12-20	0.8389	0.6989	23.58	55329	Upward Expansion	65	76
2024-12-13	0.9068	0.6941	30.94	171384	Upward Expansion	88	90
2024-12-06	0.8534	0.6871	24.04	386475	Upward Expansion	83	85
2024-11-29	0.7372	0.6818	7.97	57056	Upward Expansion	60	74
2024-11-22	0.7939	0.6804	16.71	98661	Downward Expansion	77	79
2024-11-15	0.7703	0.6758	16.39	144356	Downward Expansion	36	49
2024-11-08	0.7467	0.6717	13.00	125959	Downward Expansion	23	15
2024-11-01	0.638	0.6684	-4.11	987505	Downward Expansion	-54	44
2024-10-25	0.638	0.6687	-4.39	10612	Balance	-54	43
2024-10-18	0.6427	0.669	-4.43	3381	Balance	-51	36
2024-10-11	0.6427	0.6692	-2.72	5855	Balance	-51	30
2024-10-04	0.6474	0.669	-1.84	16024	Balance	-21	11
2024-09-27	0.6663	0.6695	1.03	26850	Balance	-3	4
2024-09-20	0.6663	0.6698	2.77	3103	Balance	-5	5
2024-09-13	0.6663	0.6708	2.79	8230	Balance	-8	6
2024-09-06	0.6663	0.6696	4.51	10292	Balance	-12	11
2024-08-30	0.6663	0.6684	2.61	16063	Balance	-14	28
2024-08-23	0.6522	0.667	1.54	4599	Balance	-15	30
2024-08-16	0.6522	0.666	2.21	21035	Balance	-13	21
2024-08-09	0.638	0.6651	2.25	40202	Deceleration	-2	8
2024-08-02	0.6663	0.6649	7.29	125805	Deceleration	24	10
2024-07-26	0.6947	0.663	11.04	47943	Deceleration	48	21
2024-07-19	0.6852	0.6594	12.10	27636	Deceleration	33	15
2024-07-12	0.6805	0.6561	10.85	36431	Deceleration	32	16
2024-07-05	0.6805	0.6528	12.19	6633	Deceleration	33	18
2024-06-28	0.6852	0.6506	14.19	25219	Deceleration	36	20
2024-06-21	0.6852	0.6493	13.93	30188	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-06-14	0.6852	0.6471	15.95	23554	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-06-07	0.6852	0.6452	15.29	22635	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-05-31	0.69	0.6389	16.27	53981	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-05-24	0.6947	0.6291	17.30	80237	Upward Expansion	63	64
2024-05-17	0.6947	0.6192	16.70	27084	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-05-10	0.6947	0.6098	17.36	13269	Upward Expansion	66	49
2024-05-03	0.6947	0.6011	21.38	36550	Deceleration	69	42
2024-04-26	0.6569	0.5924	16.72	3780	Deceleration	41	25
2024-04-19	0.6474	0.5846	19.42	31033	Deceleration	36	23
2024-04-12	0.6474	0.5781	18.78	37316	Deceleration	37	24
2024-04-05	0.6474	0.5714	20.84	2753	Deceleration	39	25
2024-03-29	0.6474	0.5649	21.02	21653	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-03-22	0.6474	0.558	22.12	12448	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-03-15	0.638	0.551	24.24	7544	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-03-08	0.6616	0.5439	30.77	25037	Upward Expansion	63	72
2024-03-01	0.6758	0.536	34.17	27834	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-02-23	0.6947	0.528	38.67	236700	Upward Expansion	81	68
2024-02-16	0.6333	0.5189	27.38	11319	Upward Expansion	63	47
2024-02-09	0.6285	0.5118	29.56	64541	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-02-02	0.6238	0.5054	28.62	67344	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-01-26	0.6238	0.4993	29.05	23219	Upward Expansion	61	46
2024-01-19	0.6238	0.4931	32.61	13724	Deceleration	62	47
2024-01-12	0.6333	0.487	32.29	240639	Deceleration	66	47
2024-01-05	0.6096	0.4812	26.81	18516	Deceleration	53	41
2023-12-29	0.586	0.4769	21.64	5515	Upward Expansion	58	48
2023-12-22	0.586	0.4719	22.43	29616	Upward Expansion	63	58
2023-12-15	0.5813	0.4668	23.63	13421	Upward Expansion	66	84
2023-12-08	0.6144	0.4619	31.14	38038	Upward Expansion	65	87
2023-12-01	0.6474	0.456	38.98	37188	Upward Expansion	83	93
2023-11-24	0.6172	0.449	34.08	79155	Upward Expansion	84	90
2023-11-17	0.6309	0.4431	37.45	221176	Rotation Up	83	78
2023-11-10	0.4938	0.437	10.25	149022	Rotation Up	-8	7
2023-11-03	0.3977	0.4356	-11.79	0	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2023-10-27	0.3977	0.4375	-10.90	46364	Balance	-67	57
2023-10-20	0.4115	0.4393	-9.88	23110	Balance	-57	34
2023-10-13	0.4343	0.4407	-8.01	3695	Balance	-30	15

Price vs TrendAbove+3.3%

Trend directionFalling-1.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+0.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-2.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.2%

Price momentumPositive+4.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.30×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

+26.7 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

44 /100

+12.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CSSG Directional State ↗ CSSG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance26

Rotation Up58

Upward Expansion81

Deceleration51

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion7

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 23%Deceleration 19%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	+2.1%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	+3.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-07-24	Established	+2.2%
Balance	2025-11-28	2026-03-27	Established	-9.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-11-21	Established	-3.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-11	Developing	-7.0%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-05-30	Developing	-0.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-2.8%
Deceleration	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+7.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-17	Developing	+14.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-11-22	New	+24.4%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-10-25	Developing	-2.2%
Deceleration	2024-06-28	2024-08-09	Developing	-6.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing52

Stage 3 · Distribution44

Stage 4 · Declining48

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 56/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.99
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +4.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +4.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 75th percentile52 in cohort

Test CSSG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.07×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.30×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CSSG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.7187rising

Slow Activity GBP 0.6957rising

Trend Reference GBP 0.6918+3.3% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.7146+0.1% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.65shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +10.7%

From structural high -15.3%

From structural low +11.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	-0.7%-6.8% to +13.8%	+41.2%	+41.2%	+0.4%	+64.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+5.1%-6.1% to +14.0%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+1.0%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+13.7%+12.6% to +19.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+11.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+4.6%-8.2% to +28.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-9.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CSSG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map