Weekly structural research · LSE · Communication Services

BMY Stage Analysis

Bloomsbury Publishing Plc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close GBP 620.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 8−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.6%GBP 565.86 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	620.00	616.55	6.31	4606835	Balance	8	16
2026-09-18	606.00	611.31	4.50	1566123	Balance	0	9
2026-09-11	621.00	606.21	7.37	944365	Upward Expansion	28	15
2026-09-04	623.00	600.31	6.05	828827	Upward Expansion	49	38
2026-08-28	643.00	594.46	9.65	1173129	Upward Expansion	57	59
2026-08-21	654.00	589.60	11.85	94448	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-08-14	664.00	584.43	14.56	395311	Deceleration	69	42
2026-08-07	650.00	579.10	10.98	115443	Deceleration	52	26
2026-07-31	611.00	573.40	4.89	346198	Deceleration	19	15
2026-07-24	607.00	568.81	5.62	172889	Deceleration	32	18
2026-07-17	619.14	564.53	9.22	147745	Deceleration	34	21
2026-07-10	623.07	559.86	11.04	689829	Deceleration	38	24
2026-07-03	628.96	554.94	10.35	401871	Upward Expansion	43	31
2026-06-26	611.29	550.31	9.15	422617	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-06-19	628.96	546.53	13.87	1982673	Upward Expansion	61	63
2026-06-12	649.00	541.57	16.34	91126	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-06-05	665.00	537.27	20.65	332369	Upward Expansion	75	69
2026-05-29	652.00	532.13	18.08	696592	Upward Expansion	71	54
2026-05-22	640.00	527.07	15.41	1868310	Upward Expansion	71	53
2026-05-15	608.00	522.80	12.73	1191959	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-05-08	620.00	518.38	14.00	1701858	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-05-01	613.00	513.68	10.82	1441313	Upward Expansion	69	60
2026-04-24	620.00	510.01	11.46	2654715	Upward Expansion	77	65
2026-04-17	604.00	505.28	5.30	2197020	Upward Expansion	76	64
2026-04-10	579.00	500.99	1.12	1062464	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-04-03	572.00	498.66	0.94	1185337	Upward Expansion	68	78
2026-03-27	562.00	496.26	3.34	1425620	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-03-20	557.00	493.82	2.47	2652443	Upward Expansion	65	69
2026-03-13	584.00	491.77	3.37	2083034	Rotation Up	76	63
2026-03-06	561.00	488.12	-1.28	3702179	Rotation Up	18	9
2026-02-27	463.00	485.50	-23.51	1077773	Downward Expansion	-54	59
2026-02-20	453.00	485.92	-24.30	1185761	Downward Expansion	-55	58
2026-02-13	444.00	487.20	-24.94	2568566	Balance	-61	49
2026-02-06	447.50	489.56	-24.63	1546153	Balance	-58	22
2026-01-30	497.00	491.09	-16.00	689846	Balance	-2	9
2026-01-23	499.00	490.68	-15.78	787487	Balance	-4	5
2026-01-16	504.00	491.08	-16.52	902226	Balance	-24	11
2026-01-09	479.00	491.64	-20.47	949743	Balance	-51	35
2026-01-02	473.50	492.27	-20.72	330101	Balance	-54	42
2025-12-26	478.50	493.64	-20.11	161973	Balance	-51	36
2025-12-19	479.00	495.06	-21.09	964378	Balance	-49	29
2025-12-12	475.50	495.62	-20.55	1622199	Balance	-41	23
2025-12-05	490.00	500.69	-19.16	985990	Balance	-29	12
2025-11-28	498.00	505.02	-19.03	688376	Balance	-11	7
2025-11-21	480.00	508.62	-21.17	2066477	Balance	-21	13
2025-11-14	520.00	511.98	-16.74	2377631	Balance	1	14
2025-11-07	511.00	513.77	-18.77	1576082	Balance	-6	9
2025-10-31	500.00	515.16	-21.56	1815633	Balance	-19	9
2025-10-24	511.96	516.86	-19.88	2379687	Downward Expansion	-16	8
2025-10-17	475.46	519.79	-24.12	1117094	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2025-10-10	478.96	523.87	-24.79	1234033	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2025-10-03	502.96	527.23	-22.25	1816447	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2025-09-26	477.96	529.66	-25.06	906191	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2025-09-19	475.46	534.05	-25.52	2888867	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2025-09-12	508.96	539.86	-21.52	2382058	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-09-05	499.96	544.82	-22.82	1272688	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-08-29	488.96	549.95	-24.90	985034	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-08-22	495.46	555.85	-25.64	644742	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-08-15	474.46	561.72	-28.03	1025047	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2025-08-08	482.46	567.24	-27.12	1052721	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2025-08-01	475.46	571.81	-28.52	2403871	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2025-07-25	491.46	578.36	-27.19	1391324	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2025-07-18	514.84	584.44	-23.21	3089364	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2025-07-11	493.35	590.07	-26.53	1198283	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2025-07-04	484.85	596.88	-27.40	1521963	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2025-06-27	510.84	603.05	-23.77	1845794	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-06-20	520.84	608.15	-22.43	1162245	Downward Expansion	-60	68
2025-06-13	497.85	612.78	-26.76	1545530	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2025-06-06	514.84	618.58	-24.50	2734270	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2025-05-30	520.84	624.41	-23.32	3399111	Downward Expansion	-61	38
2025-05-23	495.85	630.31	-26.81	4105649	Downward Expansion	-65	29
2025-05-16	627.81	638.90	-7.16	1054564	Downward Expansion	-20	16
2025-05-09	619.81	640.30	-6.83	1591867	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2025-05-02	605.81	642.30	-9.28	870786	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-04-25	580.82	644.50	-11.02	626991	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2025-04-18	573.82	647.53	-10.56	419310	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2025-04-11	552.83	651.12	-10.49	996760	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2025-04-04	550.83	654.82	-11.81	504000	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2025-03-28	599.81	658.65	-10.60	685559	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2025-03-21	597.82	662.45	-10.71	1809815	Downward Expansion	-62	68
2025-03-14	579.82	666.65	-13.24	671504	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2025-03-07	575.82	670.98	-14.35	785710	Downward Expansion	-76	64
2025-02-28	609.81	674.38	-10.77	1105505	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2025-02-21	649.80	677.64	-3.26	1488261	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2025-02-14	657.80	678.77	-2.78	808805	Downward Expansion	-37	16
2025-02-07	653.80	680.03	-2.86	988238	Downward Expansion	-49	24
2025-01-31	665.79	681.89	-0.50	1582485	Downward Expansion	-51	42
2025-01-24	671.79	681.42	2.79	1291303	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2025-01-17	639.80	679.89	-1.71	825449	Balance	-54	49
2025-01-10	619.81	678.88	-1.50	2179285	Balance	-61	42
2025-01-03	671.79	678.54	7.48	543825	Balance	-5	4
2024-12-27	673.79	676.07	9.35	142540	Balance	14	7
2024-12-20	683.79	673.94	12.50	3223919	Balance	16	6
2024-12-13	697.78	669.14	12.51	2567080	Balance	19	12
2024-12-06	669.79	664.73	8.52	1153801	Balance	8	13
2024-11-29	663.80	661.53	8.38	2255599	Balance	8	11
2024-11-22	659.80	657.06	8.74	1232121	Balance	7	6
2024-11-15	671.79	653.26	14.12	2023815	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-11-08	689.79	649.39	17.92	1456714	Upward Expansion	46	30
2024-11-01	697.78	644.79	18.68	1343151	Upward Expansion	46	29
2024-10-25	753.72	638.85	28.08	1838759	Deceleration	66	35
2024-10-18	669.76	631.32	13.48	641938	Deceleration	20	10
2024-10-11	679.75	627.15	17.47	436985	Deceleration	21	12
2024-10-04	671.75	622.21	16.69	324131	Deceleration	31	17
2024-09-27	671.75	618.35	17.09	430053	Deceleration	33	21
2024-09-20	681.75	613.61	21.09	835406	Deceleration	39	22
2024-09-13	663.76	609.04	18.33	783798	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-09-06	665.76	604.58	20.93	434267	Upward Expansion	50	40
2024-08-30	713.74	598.54	27.64	972516	Upward Expansion	63	52
2024-08-23	723.74	590.63	31.33	563162	Upward Expansion	70	55
2024-08-16	709.74	582.16	30.17	545890	Upward Expansion	67	52
2024-08-09	677.75	574.06	27.59	1098169	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-08-02	707.74	566.83	34.19	2923709	Upward Expansion	72	77
2024-07-26	683.75	558.85	29.07	1673309	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-07-19	695.64	551.71	34.50	1502105	Upward Expansion	78	84
2024-07-12	709.63	544.05	36.73	1295499	Upward Expansion	88	85
2024-07-05	651.66	535.90	27.30	1115278	Upward Expansion	77	70
2024-06-28	625.67	529.51	23.50	918522	Upward Expansion	69	66
2024-06-21	609.68	522.64	19.96	482344	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-06-14	609.68	516.65	21.87	426124	Upward Expansion	69	58
2024-06-07	597.69	510.15	18.65	1061370	Upward Expansion	66	53
2024-05-31	609.68	504.02	21.06	1348341	Upward Expansion	74	52
2024-05-24	539.72	497.56	7.30	1557134	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-05-17	565.70	492.56	11.45	336116	Upward Expansion	63	41
2024-05-10	573.70	487.01	13.24	805217	Upward Expansion	67	42
2024-05-03	529.72	481.05	7.78	261508	Upward Expansion	53	36
2024-04-26	545.72	476.21	12.32	732392	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-04-19	555.71	471.38	18.30	1054826	Upward Expansion	64	42
2024-04-12	551.71	465.97	16.48	429685	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-04-05	519.73	461.38	11.23	341833	Upward Expansion	47	37
2024-03-29	527.72	457.39	12.57	345202	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-03-22	544.72	453.50	16.82	206181	Upward Expansion	67	59
2024-03-15	531.72	449.30	17.36	320345	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-03-08	555.71	445.10	24.04	673163	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-03-01	529.72	440.67	18.56	830860	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-02-23	544.72	437.21	22.13	458263	Upward Expansion	86	86
2024-02-16	529.72	433.27	19.36	1584866	Upward Expansion	84	70
2024-02-09	484.75	430.37	11.75	209871	Upward Expansion	68	48
2024-02-02	476.25	429.23	9.52	487670	Upward Expansion	65	44
2024-01-26	469.75	428.26	7.98	767435	Upward Expansion	62	43
2024-01-19	466.76	427.12	9.93	274388	Upward Expansion	61	46
2024-01-12	460.76	426.24	6.35	203546	Upward Expansion	62	60
2024-01-05	468.26	425.85	7.32	342293	Rotation Up	65	72
2023-12-29	469.75	425.39	7.15	60808	Rotation Up	42	65
2023-12-22	465.76	423.32	6.75	754148	Rotation Up	43	61
2023-12-15	465.26	421.80	8.36	678223	Rotation Up	38	55
2023-12-08	459.76	420.78	7.38	573697	Rotation Up	37	41
2023-12-01	419.78	419.96	-1.67	309868	Downward Expansion	11	16
2023-11-24	429.78	420.64	0.95	734579	Downward Expansion	2	14
2023-11-17	414.78	421.25	-3.04	359744	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2023-11-10	413.78	422.51	-1.68	200307	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2023-11-03	415.78	424.44	-2.23	1099719	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2023-10-27	389.76	425.97	-6.89	432336	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2023-10-20	399.26	427.83	-6.39	370452	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2023-10-13	394.76	429.41	-9.98	239730	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2023-10-06	384.76	431.22	-11.18	165941	Downward Expansion	-69	53

Price vs TrendAbove+0.6%

Trend directionRising+9.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+6.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.8%

Price momentumPositive+10.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.04×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

8 / ±100

-49.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

16 /100

-42.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BMY Directional State ↗ BMY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance57

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration84

Rotation Down41

Downward Expansion34

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 38%Deceleration 8%Downward Expansion 33%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+2.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-11	New	-5.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-10	2026-08-14	Developing	+6.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-07-03	Established	+12.9%
Rotation Up	2026-03-06	2026-03-13	New	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-02-27	New	+2.2%
Balance	2025-10-31	2026-02-13	Established	-11.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-10-24	Extended	-23.8%
Balance	2024-11-22	2025-01-17	Developing	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-11-15	New	-3.7%
Deceleration	2024-09-20	2024-10-25	Developing	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-01-12	2024-09-13	Extended	+44.1%
Rotation Up	2023-12-08	2024-01-05	Developing	+1.8%
Downward Expansion	2023-08-18	2023-12-01	Established	+3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing31

Stage 2 · Advancing88

Stage 3 · Distribution61

Stage 4 · Declining12

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 52/100
Current Relative Strength: 6.31
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +10.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +3.0%
Communication Services regime cohort: 80th percentile10 in cohort

Test BMY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume5.10×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.04×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BMY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 618.40falling

Slow Activity GBP 626.45rising

Trend Reference GBP 616.55+0.6% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 565.86+9.6% close margin

Structural low GBP 549.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.0%

Annualized volatility +18.6%

From structural high -10.1%

From structural low +42.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	-2.8%-9.2% to +14.2%	+35.7%	+35.7%	-2.1%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-0.6%-3.3% to +23.3%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-0.4%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+4.8%-24.8% to +22.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+8.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+20.4%-27.3% to +28.2%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BMY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map