Weekly structural research ยท GER ยท Financial Services

MULT Stage Analysis

Multitude AG

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 5.76Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 51โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 32/100directional strength
Maturity 26/100lifecycle context
Confidence 51/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +14.7%EUR 5.02 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-095.765.66-1.5448649Rotation Up5132
2026-10-026.105.663.4375675Rotation Up4533
2026-09-255.825.64-2.2415490Rotation Up2018
2026-09-185.725.64-3.8829902Rotation Up1729
2026-09-115.765.64-4.5927147Rotation Up2149
2026-09-045.705.66-7.661009Rotation Up2035
2026-08-285.885.66-7.063469Rotation Up2334
2026-08-216.045.65-3.2411773Downward Expansion2123
2026-08-145.925.65-6.5626720Downward Expansion-1410
2026-08-075.225.63-17.487918Downward Expansion-6047
2026-07-315.205.66-15.904468Downward Expansion-6345
2026-07-245.245.68-13.869088Downward Expansion-6144
2026-07-175.485.69-9.413220Downward Expansion-5346
2026-07-105.385.69-12.261696Downward Expansion-5549
2026-07-035.245.70-17.373628Downward Expansion-6252
2026-06-265.305.70-13.207159Balance-6152
2026-06-195.505.71-11.462428Balance-2535
2026-06-125.565.72-9.623771Balance-2432
2026-06-055.325.75-14.3819220Balance-2525
2026-05-295.505.78-13.1070535Balance-712
2026-05-225.745.80-8.8934858Balance-25
2026-05-155.645.83-7.1659617Rotation Up910
2026-05-086.005.85-2.8345712Rotation Up2538
2026-05-015.985.85-2.7731777Balance2531
2026-04-246.275.882.8098578Balance3329
2026-04-176.035.88-3.2483071Balance-610
2026-04-106.125.902.0388771Downward Expansion-169
2026-04-035.775.91-0.8253235Downward Expansion-4835
2026-03-275.345.93-4.4467909Downward Expansion-5950
2026-03-205.315.96-4.8473588Balance-6249
2026-03-135.706.01-2.1283245Balance-3522
2026-03-065.576.03-4.4359298Balance-4117
2026-02-275.806.04-6.7331467Balance-1612
2026-02-205.826.05-6.0182084Balance-1811
2026-02-136.116.080.4280475Balance-98
2026-02-065.916.10-1.6972674Downward Expansion-3420
2026-01-305.586.13-6.1963280Downward Expansion-4121
2026-01-235.816.17-3.4934212Downward Expansion-3520
2026-01-165.576.19-8.6664435Downward Expansion-4626
2026-01-096.136.220.8253006Downward Expansion-3626
2026-01-025.756.25-2.5637991Downward Expansion-6148
2025-12-265.516.28-5.6928886Downward Expansion-6576
2025-12-195.506.31-5.5049127Downward Expansion-6779
2025-12-125.526.33-4.6341426Downward Expansion-7182
2025-12-055.386.33-6.3536358Downward Expansion-8281
2025-11-285.686.33-0.3191367Downward Expansion-7267
2025-11-215.726.313.82109397Deceleration-4648
2025-11-146.366.3012.01100691Deceleration-19
2025-11-076.206.2510.9932115Deceleration-511
2025-10-316.276.1911.0116820Deceleration910
2025-10-246.426.1312.7029835Deceleration198
2025-10-176.256.0512.0379398Deceleration158
2025-10-106.255.9810.3754849Deceleration3117
2025-10-036.605.9016.3740898Deceleration4326
2025-09-266.535.8218.9651013Deceleration4226
2025-09-196.505.7419.7862343Deceleration3923
2025-09-126.415.6718.5839770Deceleration3724
2025-09-056.555.5922.0878651Deceleration4327
2025-08-296.195.5214.29261876Deceleration3317
2025-08-226.615.4520.0396125Deceleration4124
2025-08-156.385.3716.1663277Deceleration3423
2025-08-085.955.309.0629246Deceleration3923
2025-08-016.105.2514.98166003Upward Expansion4639
2025-07-256.635.1921.0834145Upward Expansion6158
2025-07-186.645.1120.8732963Upward Expansion6361
2025-07-116.925.0225.9650314Upward Expansion7466
2025-07-046.684.9424.0228669Upward Expansion6865
2025-06-276.584.8720.8686391Upward Expansion6666
2025-06-206.474.7922.2129570Upward Expansion6880
2025-06-136.834.7128.1490646Upward Expansion8393
2025-06-066.674.6221.0386251Upward Expansion8895
2025-05-306.534.5319.80141900Upward Expansion9497
2025-05-236.094.4513.41128054Upward Expansion9295
2025-05-165.654.404.7663476Upward Expansion8895
2025-05-095.184.36-2.9486291Upward Expansion7488
2025-05-025.204.32-1.1654854Upward Expansion8089
2025-04-255.254.273.5273947Upward Expansion8787
2025-04-184.934.221.89126166Upward Expansion7968
2025-04-114.374.18-6.09117560Balance3922
2025-04-044.474.18-5.4888912Balance4216
2025-03-284.054.17-21.3826156Balance-3142
2025-03-214.094.19-22.5520723Balance-1935
2025-03-144.094.20-23.2119112Balance-1628
2025-03-074.094.23-23.3426620Balance-4330
2025-02-284.144.26-21.1324254Balance-3818
2025-02-214.244.27-18.2945553Balance-3013
2025-02-144.244.29-19.4153895Balance-208
2025-02-074.294.33-15.8960768Balance-167
2025-01-314.214.37-17.4932926Balance-3112
2025-01-244.264.40-15.2342953Balance-2811
2025-01-174.224.43-14.2622202Balance-2913
2025-01-104.414.46-7.6060750Balance-2012
2025-01-034.244.49-9.828796Balance-1910
2024-12-274.144.52-12.5620264Balance-1913
2024-12-204.104.56-12.9332938Balance-2114
2024-12-134.524.58-6.4451381Balance-811
2024-12-064.654.57-3.6761946Downward Expansion-86
2024-11-294.094.58-11.7338101Downward Expansion-4829
2024-11-224.144.58-9.4737503Downward Expansion-4729
2024-11-154.114.60-9.4658743Downward Expansion-3722
2024-11-083.934.60-13.1741567Downward Expansion-4325
2024-11-014.184.62-7.2234010Downward Expansion-3322
2024-10-254.424.63-2.5622531Downward Expansion-3922
2024-10-184.634.621.7036593Downward Expansion-5136
2024-10-114.014.61-10.3331785Downward Expansion-6573
2024-10-043.654.60-16.9450211Rotation Down-7581
2024-09-273.754.60-16.1540052Rotation Down-4968
2024-09-203.674.60-14.4836256Rotation Down-5567
2024-09-134.274.60-0.3728945Rotation Down-2847
2024-09-064.384.584.8547889Balance-2531
2024-08-304.464.564.0214616Balance-214
2024-08-234.514.537.3234305Balance015
2024-08-165.024.5121.9624906Upward Expansion2921
2024-08-094.904.4724.1561995Upward Expansion3219
2024-08-024.384.4412.5985044Upward Expansion2216
2024-07-265.084.4225.9575581Upward Expansion5842
2024-07-195.434.3838.01152178Upward Expansion6951
2024-07-125.314.3032.2570415Upward Expansion6547
2024-07-055.254.2533.7577723Upward Expansion6449
2024-06-285.174.1934.8257509Upward Expansion6456
2024-06-214.934.1430.4151261Upward Expansion6369
2024-06-145.434.0845.8945762Upward Expansion7982
2024-06-075.243.9938.0590096Upward Expansion7565
2024-05-315.103.8935.97130224Upward Expansion7859
2024-05-244.783.7926.9688927Upward Expansion6847
2024-05-174.383.7116.75134512Upward Expansion5743
2024-05-104.783.6527.2571004Upward Expansion7552
2024-05-034.213.5817.60121638Upward Expansion6149
2024-04-264.623.5328.2018955Upward Expansion7667
2024-04-194.203.4719.7165057Upward Expansion6573
2024-04-124.613.4230.47107651Upward Expansion8388
2024-04-054.263.3619.56116917Upward Expansion7280
2024-03-294.323.3119.2915968Upward Expansion7869
2024-03-224.203.2617.9661284Deceleration7547
2024-03-153.823.218.8693500Deceleration4728
2024-03-083.603.183.2425528Deceleration3928
2024-03-013.643.154.6323349Deceleration4231
2024-02-233.693.118.0317239Deceleration4432
2024-02-163.853.0815.0323006Upward Expansion5337
2024-02-093.673.0511.0547398Upward Expansion5742
2024-02-023.623.029.8927710Upward Expansion6251
2024-01-263.772.9914.43114089Upward Expansion6463
2024-01-193.972.9623.7763872Upward Expansion7468
2024-01-123.922.9321.7396183Upward Expansion7661
2024-01-053.842.9020.5566304Upward Expansion7772
2023-12-293.672.8814.7229048Upward Expansion7581
2023-12-223.292.863.6920358Rotation Up6581
2023-12-153.672.8715.64107454Rotation Up5178
2023-12-083.462.859.52114751Rotation Up4752
2023-12-013.562.8515.75107407Rotation Up4241
2023-11-243.332.8411.33169541Rotation Up-45
2023-11-172.632.84-10.83248246Downward Expansion-6159
2023-11-102.142.86-24.3037297Downward Expansion-8382
2023-11-032.342.90-17.327106Downward Expansion-7373
2023-10-272.342.94-14.6479440Downward Expansion-7766
2023-10-202.602.97-5.7516370Downward Expansion-5943
Price vs TrendAbove+1.7%
Trend directionFalling-0.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+14.7%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.5%
Relative strength directionImproving+10.7%
Price momentumNegative-5.9%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.74ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

51 / ยฑ100

+30.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

32 /100

-17.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance39
Rotation Up46
Upward Expansion72
Deceleration71
Rotation Down18
Downward Expansion3

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 23%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-08-282026-10-09Developing-2.0%
Downward Expansion2026-07-032026-08-21Developing+15.3%
Balance2026-05-222026-06-26Developing-7.7%
Rotation Up2026-05-082026-05-15New-6.0%
Balance2026-04-172026-05-01New-0.8%
Downward Expansion2026-03-272026-04-10New+14.6%
Balance2026-02-132026-03-20Developing-13.1%
Downward Expansion2025-11-282026-02-06Developing+4.0%
Deceleration2025-08-082025-11-21Established-3.9%
Upward Expansion2025-04-182025-08-01Established+23.6%
Balance2024-12-132025-04-11Established-3.4%
Downward Expansion2024-10-112024-12-06Developing+16.1%
Rotation Down2024-09-132024-10-04New-14.4%
Balance2024-08-232024-09-06New-3.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing65
Stage 2 ยท Advancing51
Stage 3 ยท Distribution63
Stage 4 ยท Declining49

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3A ยท Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
53/100
Current Relative Strength
-1.54
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-5.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-11.3%
Financial Services regime cohort
100th percentile3 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.61ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.74ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 5.86rising
Slow Activity EUR 5.66rising
Trend Reference EUR 5.66+1.7% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 5.02+14.7% close margin
Structural low EUR 5.10shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +5.5%
Annualized volatility +28.8%
From structural high -12.5%
From structural low +17.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term5-1.0%-11.3% to +20.5%+20.0%+20.0%+1.1%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3+10.9%-13.0% to +22.4%+66.7%+66.7%+2.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+47.7%+43.7% to +51.7%+100.0%+100.0%+34.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+30.9%+24.4% to +37.4%+100.0%+100.0%+15.5%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context