Weekly structural research ยท NASDAQ ยท Financial Services

CUB Stage Analysis

Lionheart Holdings

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 10.89Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and expanding.
Direction 60โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 49/100directional strength
Maturity 3/100lifecycle context
Confidence 79/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +4.0%USD 10.47 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
View chart values ยท 112 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2510.8910.82-11.48454862Upward Expansion6049
2026-09-1810.8710.81-9.05606406Balance5447
2026-09-1110.8710.81-8.48280246Balance5240
2026-09-0410.8810.80-9.20697567Balance5444
2026-08-2810.8810.79-9.21450929Balance5442
2026-08-2110.8610.79-9.34108417Balance4730
2026-08-1410.8510.78-12.02518604Balance3619
2026-08-0710.8710.78-11.22542517Balance3917
2026-07-3110.8110.77-7.56355881Balance149
2026-07-2410.8010.76-7.483334403Balance2414
2026-07-1710.7910.76-9.3319823Upward Expansion2417
2026-07-1010.8010.75-13.3875192Upward Expansion3216
2026-07-0310.8110.75-12.09178706Upward Expansion3822
2026-06-2610.7810.74-11.944079267Upward Expansion5334
2026-06-1910.8810.73-15.502107077Upward Expansion6245
2026-06-1210.8810.73-13.757805539Upward Expansion7155
2026-06-0510.8910.72-12.164739866Upward Expansion8157
2026-05-2910.8310.71-16.991184344Upward Expansion7052
2026-05-2210.8110.70-15.261630Upward Expansion6861
2026-05-1510.8010.69-14.81204930Upward Expansion6765
2026-05-0810.8110.68-15.4462298Upward Expansion7369
2026-05-0110.8010.68-11.4591190Upward Expansion7068
2026-04-2410.8210.67-10.4163513Upward Expansion8887
2026-04-1710.8010.66-9.181434Upward Expansion8686
2026-04-1010.7610.65-4.5453347Upward Expansion6976
2026-04-0310.7910.64-0.5371883Upward Expansion9291
2026-03-2710.7410.632.3276218Upward Expansion7586
2026-03-2010.7410.62-1.2770352Upward Expansion8088
2026-03-1310.7310.61-3.6089704Upward Expansion8087
2026-03-0610.7210.60-4.982860Upward Expansion7883
2026-02-2710.7010.60-6.596909Upward Expansion7061
2026-02-2010.7010.59-7.10371Upward Expansion6857
2026-02-1310.7010.58-6.21273935Upward Expansion7159
2026-02-0610.69โ€”โ€”56929Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3010.68โ€”โ€”61196Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2310.70โ€”โ€”326488Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1610.68โ€”โ€”5413Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0910.67โ€”โ€”22626Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0210.63โ€”โ€”6803Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2610.65โ€”โ€”335442Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1910.63โ€”โ€”385273Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1210.61โ€”โ€”85760Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0510.60โ€”โ€”36226Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2810.57โ€”โ€”8409Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2110.65โ€”โ€”10041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1410.61โ€”โ€”3272Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0710.62โ€”โ€”142687Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3110.62โ€”โ€”75880Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2410.55โ€”โ€”4684Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1710.56โ€”โ€”52570Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1010.56โ€”โ€”153364Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0310.51โ€”โ€”780Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2610.50โ€”โ€”7387Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1910.50โ€”โ€”374Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1210.50โ€”โ€”35Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0510.50โ€”โ€”14677Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2910.50โ€”โ€”2005Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2210.50โ€”โ€”20789Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1510.50โ€”โ€”790794Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0810.50โ€”โ€”699238Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0110.48โ€”โ€”3516Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2510.50โ€”โ€”20787Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1810.48โ€”โ€”12778Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1110.48โ€”โ€”236862Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0410.46โ€”โ€”8669Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2710.50โ€”โ€”61855Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2010.54โ€”โ€”654759Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1310.52โ€”โ€”208844Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0610.54โ€”โ€”251254Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3010.49โ€”โ€”1483615Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2310.41โ€”โ€”90473Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1610.38โ€”โ€”135124Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0910.36โ€”โ€”80313Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0210.34โ€”โ€”429785Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2510.30โ€”โ€”38065Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1810.27โ€”โ€”105913Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1110.26โ€”โ€”237378Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0410.26โ€”โ€”1469073Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2810.24โ€”โ€”113884Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2110.24โ€”โ€”85430Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1410.23โ€”โ€”190485Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0710.22โ€”โ€”77023Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2810.19โ€”โ€”36885Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2110.18โ€”โ€”328297Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1410.16โ€”โ€”268226Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0710.15โ€”โ€”23419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3110.13โ€”โ€”25339Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2410.12โ€”โ€”12778Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1710.12โ€”โ€”93208Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1010.12โ€”โ€”35483Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0310.10โ€”โ€”83901Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2710.10โ€”โ€”59261Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2010.09โ€”โ€”984866Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1310.07โ€”โ€”120267Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0610.08โ€”โ€”28116Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2910.05โ€”โ€”67781Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2210.04โ€”โ€”207091Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1510.04โ€”โ€”7862Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0810.03โ€”โ€”77366Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0110.02โ€”โ€”25913Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2510.02โ€”โ€”263312Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1810.01โ€”โ€”51198Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1110.01โ€”โ€”497965Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0410.01โ€”โ€”548119Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2710.01โ€”โ€”159384Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-209.99โ€”โ€”70593Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1310.01โ€”โ€”289156Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-069.99โ€”โ€”147616Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3010.01โ€”โ€”1027155Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-239.99โ€”โ€”521317Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1610.00โ€”โ€”2836721Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-099.98โ€”โ€”714Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+0.7%
Trend directionRising+0.6%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.6%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.5%
Relative strength directionImproving+0.5%
Price momentumPositive+1.4%
Volume balanceDemand-led6.07ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

60 / ยฑ100

+5.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

49 /100

+7.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance30
Rotation Up57
Upward Expansion83
Deceleration49
Rotation Down17
Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-08-09 to 2026-09-25 ยท 33 classified observations out of 112 shown.

Balance 27%Upward Expansion 73%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-09-252026-09-25New+0.0%
Balance2026-07-242026-09-18Developing+0.6%
Upward Expansion2026-02-132026-07-17Established+0.8%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing57
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution70
Stage 4 ยท Declining52

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3A ยท Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
34/100
Current Relative Strength
-11.48
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+1.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-30.9%
Financial Services regime cohort
80th percentile168 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.33ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume6.07ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 10.88rising
Slow Activity USD 10.84rising
Trend Reference USD 10.82+0.7% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 10.47+4.0% close margin
Structural low USD 10.74shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +0.5%
Annualized volatility +2.1%
From structural high -3.0%
From structural low +3.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs QQQ Regime survived Read
Near term6+0.3%-0.7% to +0.7%+66.7%+66.7%-0.2%+83.3%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+0.7%+0.5% to +0.9%+100.0%+100.0%-9.8%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+1.4%+1.4% to +1.4%+100.0%+100.0%-20.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context