Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

MKSI Stage Analysis

MKS Instruments Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 264.50Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction -31−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 28/100directional strength

Maturity 11/100lifecycle context

Confidence 62/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +72.5%USD 153.33 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	264.50	297.43	-6.26	5107360	Deceleration	-31	28
2026-10-02	279.15	295.72	-0.09	5340364	Rotation Down	-30	33
2026-09-25	260.82	293.41	-5.31	6570915	Rotation Down	-34	45
2026-09-18	252.08	292.86	-4.74	7026303	Rotation Down	-39	53
2026-09-11	267.31	293.08	2.67	5163742	Rotation Down	-25	50
2026-09-04	260.31	292.85	0.35	6538270	Rotation Down	-29	45
2026-08-28	255.76	292.26	-0.09	6945169	Deceleration	-31	34
2026-08-21	278.85	291.56	10.43	6176014	Deceleration	-5	18
2026-08-14	310.44	289.49	21.22	5103574	Deceleration	10	17
2026-08-07	304.71	285.93	21.99	10773083	Deceleration	18	21
2026-07-31	297.18	281.97	26.79	10062644	Deceleration	24	19
2026-07-24	328.88	277.66	43.23	4322531	Upward Expansion	41	27
2026-07-17	324.69	272.16	41.62	6089253	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-07-10	368.58	266.65	56.65	6512485	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-07-03	365.56	259.55	61.20	8040588	Upward Expansion	65	71
2026-06-26	388.61	252.79	76.30	9456375	Upward Expansion	78	82
2026-06-19	406.37	245.04	80.15	5329268	Upward Expansion	92	84
2026-06-12	355.69	236.27	65.84	5542161	Upward Expansion	84	66
2026-06-05	301.65	229.16	46.97	4514370	Upward Expansion	65	58
2026-05-29	324.02	224.25	53.40	4083748	Upward Expansion	75	76
2026-05-22	320.38	218.22	59.07	6297445	Upward Expansion	78	78
2026-05-15	302.94	212.29	55.25	5829767	Upward Expansion	73	80
2026-05-08	312.98	206.73	62.76	9814120	Upward Expansion	84	87
2026-05-01	279.17	200.33	56.24	5626016	Upward Expansion	69	80
2026-04-24	280.77	195.60	62.63	5661689	Upward Expansion	74	76
2026-04-17	278.38	190.29	68.12	4667523	Upward Expansion	76	57
2026-04-10	268.57	185.29	76.01	4752347	Deceleration	74	47
2026-04-03	234.49	180.16	64.27	4386232	Deceleration	42	26
2026-03-27	223.01	175.81	65.83	4294189	Deceleration	37	26
2026-03-20	226.96	171.81	66.31	7234040	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-03-13	213.29	167.74	55.87	6608918	Upward Expansion	49	44
2026-03-06	209.84	163.95	54.12	6731365	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-02-27	244.28	160.25	79.89	7354715	Upward Expansion	68	72
2026-02-20	258.82	155.18	93.83	9927505	Upward Expansion	80	91
2026-02-13	260.29	149.86	101.22	8221420	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-02-06	242.54	144.65	89.19	11045184	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-01-30	235.00	140.10	82.88	10336173	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-23	216.68	135.73	70.98	6957985	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-01-16	203.64	131.83	63.02	6247958	Upward Expansion	93	94
2026-01-09	185.76	128.05	48.83	3927824	Upward Expansion	88	84
2026-01-02	168.07	124.82	38.74	2167876	Upward Expansion	74	59
2025-12-26	163.91	122.16	33.83	2030438	Upward Expansion	70	58
2025-12-19	159.28	119.42	32.45	5680622	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-12-12	155.50	116.88	30.79	4674761	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-12-05	162.66	114.70	34.79	4537323	Upward Expansion	76	60
2025-11-28	156.12	111.92	31.24	2417806	Upward Expansion	74	59
2025-11-21	143.54	109.23	27.01	4578312	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-11-14	142.28	106.89	22.23	5022513	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-11-07	154.31	104.26	32.67	7169109	Upward Expansion	83	82
2025-10-31	143.25	101.28	19.72	5186300	Upward Expansion	75	65
2025-10-24	142.48	98.50	21.67	3894604	Upward Expansion	80	66
2025-10-17	136.08	96.45	19.08	4557456	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-10-10	120.87	94.83	8.57	6284165	Upward Expansion	66	77
2025-10-03	137.42	93.66	20.45	5584966	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-09-26	121.42	91.88	7.84	6648556	Upward Expansion	75	84
2025-09-19	128.21	90.87	13.11	12082210	Upward Expansion	90	86
2025-09-12	114.73	90.00	3.28	6648954	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-09-05	104.16	89.60	-4.88	3242782	Upward Expansion	63	53
2025-08-29	103.01	89.74	-5.48	4328959	Deceleration	61	42
2025-08-22	104.70	90.04	-4.85	4226708	Deceleration	57	34
2025-08-15	99.69	90.43	-10.85	5281986	Rotation Up	45	27
2025-08-08	98.85	91.07	-11.84	6654926	Rotation Up	19	21
2025-08-01	92.26	91.38	-15.19	5942811	Rotation Up	32	33
2025-07-25	98.98	91.87	-11.62	4507481	Rotation Up	38	64
2025-07-18	104.16	92.08	-6.98	4888748	Rotation Up	43	69
2025-07-11	105.89	92.02	-4.93	4415752	Rotation Up	42	67
2025-07-04	104.01	92.21	-7.81	2979195	Rotation Up	41	59
2025-06-27	99.68	92.52	-11.02	5736947	Balance	15	26
2025-06-20	90.23	92.95	-16.80	3702071	Balance	-1	12
2025-06-13	88.90	93.73	-18.81	5214290	Balance	-5	12
2025-06-06	88.17	94.24	-20.72	3871428	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2025-05-30	81.76	95.13	-25.69	3594538	Downward Expansion	-27	23
2025-05-23	83.17	95.72	-23.78	3989307	Downward Expansion	-31	25
2025-05-16	89.96	96.27	-20.37	6516006	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2025-05-09	79.43	96.66	-25.57	7608274	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-05-02	75.24	97.61	-30.41	7007231	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-04-25	73.51	98.59	-30.43	8981136	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2025-04-18	63.23	99.78	-36.98	7696825	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2025-04-11	65.02	101.29	-37.28	14083953	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2025-04-04	59.82	102.80	-38.66	10596684	Downward Expansion	-92	90
2025-03-28	80.96	104.25	-26.09	4167551	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2025-03-21	87.49	105.48	-22.78	7015770	Downward Expansion	-68	81
2025-03-14	85.65	106.56	-24.82	7408342	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-03-07	84.23	107.62	-28.46	7530110	Downward Expansion	-84	81
2025-02-28	91.11	108.37	-25.81	6325311	Balance	-76	65
2025-02-21	102.07	108.84	-20.37	3750656	Balance	-46	29
2025-02-14	102.64	109.53	-22.19	5411424	Balance	-16	8
2025-02-07	108.29	110.23	-16.15	3475090	Balance	15	19
2025-01-31	112.16	111.34	-13.48	5656742	Balance	20	23
2025-01-24	116.33	112.01	-11.76	3572234	Balance	16	22
2025-01-17	118.92	112.42	-8.70	3723352	Balance	3	5
2025-01-10	107.99	112.78	-14.88	3262933	Balance	-34	23
2025-01-03	107.22	113.58	-17.54	2471840	Balance	-33	22
2024-12-27	105.13	114.22	-19.99	2115217	Balance	-36	20
2024-12-20	102.50	114.88	-21.56	4935958	Balance	-32	14
2024-12-13	111.43	115.77	-16.92	3516614	Balance	-8	15
2024-12-06	113.46	116.26	-14.92	3475273	Balance	-7	13
2024-11-29	112.51	116.77	-12.84	2825817	Downward Expansion	-23	20
2024-11-22	113.56	117.02	-11.29	4302637	Downward Expansion	-30	17
2024-11-15	104.24	117.20	-16.90	4101345	Downward Expansion	-47	32
2024-11-08	114.92	117.27	-11.42	4628778	Downward Expansion	-50	36
2024-11-01	99.41	117.47	-18.94	4809822	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2024-10-25	99.76	118.38	-19.83	4036685	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-10-18	101.49	119.42	-18.24	5042528	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2024-10-11	108.11	120.20	-12.71	3176241	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-10-04	104.61	120.57	-14.46	3922522	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-09-27	109.01	121.29	-10.83	4379926	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2024-09-20	108.58	121.81	-10.36	4815612	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-09-13	110.53	122.13	-7.44	4599466	Downward Expansion	-56	35
2024-09-06	103.20	122.53	-8.47	3949003	Downward Expansion	-69	39
2024-08-30	117.82	123.02	-1.67	3279177	Rotation Down	-52	39
2024-08-23	120.02	122.67	-0.73	2714422	Rotation Down	-30	45
2024-08-16	117.47	122.28	-1.88	4261596	Rotation Down	-30	46
2024-08-09	106.66	121.89	-6.08	6511940	Balance	-33	37
2024-08-02	105.11	121.66	-7.21	7323211	Balance	-32	24
2024-07-26	122.87	121.36	4.89	4640042	Upward Expansion	28	16
2024-07-19	123.59	120.64	2.68	5007552	Upward Expansion	46	29
2024-07-12	141.56	119.81	12.85	4845726	Upward Expansion	71	50
2024-07-05	132.24	118.24	5.20	2887798	Upward Expansion	57	36
2024-06-28	128.80	116.58	5.98	4884997	Upward Expansion	52	33
2024-06-21	129.61	115.05	6.42	4683757	Upward Expansion	55	35
2024-06-14	131.95	113.30	8.53	4776311	Upward Expansion	62	39
2024-06-07	126.45	111.40	7.60	4220691	Upward Expansion	52	37
2024-05-31	124.86	109.50	9.08	4114893	Upward Expansion	54	42
2024-05-24	129.22	107.58	11.18	3860559	Upward Expansion	60	42
2024-05-17	126.29	105.47	10.16	10235407	Deceleration	56	36
2024-05-10	128.50	103.68	14.75	3303872	Deceleration	49	24
2024-05-03	120.15	101.99	9.27	2673202	Deceleration	32	22
2024-04-26	118.90	100.70	9.32	2889810	Deceleration	36	22
2024-04-19	106.52	99.57	1.95	3728551	Upward Expansion	34	27
2024-04-12	120.83	98.78	9.36	2689382	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-04-05	126.59	97.64	14.19	2839385	Upward Expansion	65	57
2024-03-29	130.97	96.44	17.47	2295872	Upward Expansion	78	65
2024-03-22	124.85	95.37	11.59	2871409	Upward Expansion	70	63
2024-03-15	119.36	94.31	9.98	3703326	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-03-08	126.11	93.32	14.82	3028052	Upward Expansion	76	74
2024-03-01	124.60	92.19	11.67	2741831	Upward Expansion	80	85
2024-02-23	118.20	91.30	7.77	2379025	Upward Expansion	72	82
2024-02-16	122.61	90.89	13.08	3398070	Upward Expansion	88	92
2024-02-09	117.75	90.18	6.78	4206755	Upward Expansion	87	90
2024-02-02	107.48	89.76	-1.16	2692634	Rotation Up	74	81
2024-01-26	108.25	89.60	0.02	3099589	Rotation Up	54	73
2024-01-19	105.85	89.52	-2.27	2765371	Rotation Up	55	76
2024-01-12	99.58	89.29	-6.11	3265022	Rotation Up	33	70
2024-01-05	96.29	89.40	-7.03	3186803	Rotation Up	28	65
2023-12-29	101.11	89.47	-6.20	2027561	Rotation Up	45	65
2023-12-22	98.73	89.25	-8.54	4412277	Downward Expansion	45	50
2023-12-15	94.49	89.20	-12.05	6955236	Downward Expansion	8	29
2023-12-08	82.62	88.90	-20.86	2633335	Downward Expansion	-33	33
2023-12-01	82.75	88.82	-20.71	3759988	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2023-11-24	77.04	88.94	-26.46	1948899	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2023-11-17	75.04	89.10	-28.14	3239449	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2023-11-10	69.55	89.36	-32.34	3276057	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2023-11-03	67.11	89.73	-33.24	7018483	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2023-10-27	65.84	90.19	-30.58	4369514	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2023-10-20	72.57	90.88	-26.02	3654890	Rotation Down	-84	86

Price vs TrendBelow-11.1%

Trend directionRising+5.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+72.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-96.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-62.9%

Price momentumNegative-1.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.06×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-31 / ±100

-5.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

28 /100

-21.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MKSI Directional State ↗ MKSI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up30

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration55

Rotation Down45

Downward Expansion50

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 42%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 23%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	+7.2%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-28	Developing	-13.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-07-24	Established	+18.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+20.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2026-03-20	Extended	+117.9%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	-1.6%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-15	Developing	-4.2%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-06-27	New	+12.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-06-06	Established	+4.7%
Balance	2024-12-06	2025-02-28	Established	-19.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-11-29	Established	+9.0%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	+0.3%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-08-09	New	+1.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing42

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining58

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 72/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.26
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -1.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -24.5%
Technology regime cohort: 56th percentile77 in cohort

Test MKSI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.06×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MKSI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 266.20falling

Slow Activity USD 298.43falling

Trend Reference USD 297.43-11.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 153.33+72.5% close margin

Structural low USD 228.46shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +13.5%

Annualized volatility +51.8%

From structural high -40.9%

From structural low +109.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	+7.7%-13.9% to +25.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+3.8%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+26.3%+3.3% to +74.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+14.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+11.6%-16.1% to +147.2%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-19.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+47.7%-38.2% to +166.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-5.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MKSI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map