Weekly structural research · MIL · Technology

EXAI Stage Analysis

Expert.ai S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 1.61Tenure DevelopingBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +14.7%EUR 1.41 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.61	1.66	-6.35	503260	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2026-10-02	1.62	1.66	-7.30	580081	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2026-09-25	1.60	1.66	-11.26	561396	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2026-09-18	1.60	1.66	-11.37	464314	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2026-09-11	1.57	1.66	-15.05	640055	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2026-09-04	1.51	1.67	-17.82	19158	Downward Expansion	-90	93
2026-08-28	1.57	1.67	-15.72	32697	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2026-08-21	1.59	1.68	-15.11	102806	Balance	-73	62
2026-08-14	1.64	1.68	-14.31	69570	Balance	-57	37
2026-08-07	1.66	1.69	-13.51	75804	Balance	-46	23
2026-07-31	1.69	1.70	-9.59	100366	Balance	-28	12
2026-07-24	1.68	1.70	-9.64	16250	Balance	-31	14
2026-07-17	1.65	1.70	-11.49	43114	Balance	-38	17
2026-07-10	1.69	1.70	-10.92	111588	Balance	-29	13
2026-07-03	1.70	1.69	-10.78	268598	Balance	-28	12
2026-06-26	1.68	1.70	-9.55	199853	Balance	-46	22
2026-06-19	1.65	1.69	-13.96	142566	Balance	-52	36
2026-06-12	1.66	1.69	-11.17	126610	Balance	-21	20
2026-06-05	1.68	1.68	-7.59	487426	Balance	-19	19
2026-05-29	1.64	1.67	-10.24	760595	Balance	-4	13
2026-05-22	1.64	1.66	-9.11	442128	Balance	16	12
2026-05-15	1.67	1.66	-7.06	871167	Upward Expansion	29	15
2026-05-08	1.70	1.65	-5.66	753835	Upward Expansion	50	28
2026-05-01	1.78	1.65	0.71	455395	Upward Expansion	57	44
2026-04-24	1.79	1.64	2.64	792740	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-04-17	1.73	1.64	-2.90	683836	Balance	50	46
2026-04-10	1.74	1.64	-0.02	631258	Balance	42	33
2026-04-03	1.73	1.63	4.14	805085	Balance	39	26
2026-03-27	1.75	1.63	10.68	1264514	Balance	38	19
2026-03-20	1.74	1.62	12.11	1818475	Balance	21	13
2026-03-13	1.59	1.61	-0.37	1049923	Balance	-18	23
2026-03-06	1.59	1.61	0.40	889656	Balance	0	18
2026-02-27	1.59	1.60	-5.49	516920	Balance	10	21
2026-02-20	1.62	1.59	-1.93	455851	Upward Expansion	23	21
2026-02-13	1.61	1.59	0.02	732420	Upward Expansion	30	18
2026-02-06	1.67	1.59	2.89	723391	Upward Expansion	56	38
2026-01-30	1.75	1.58	8.77	617912	Upward Expansion	61	66
2026-01-23	1.78	1.57	12.28	646288	Upward Expansion	62	74
2026-01-16	1.84	1.56	13.81	848707	Upward Expansion	73	76
2026-01-09	1.87	1.55	16.45	2772320	Upward Expansion	82	75
2026-01-02	1.77	1.53	11.36	1139641	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-12-26	1.59	1.52	1.78	246409	Upward Expansion	55	58
2025-12-19	1.63	1.52	3.67	871793	Upward Expansion	55	51
2025-12-12	1.65	1.51	8.17	809838	Balance	58	43
2025-12-05	1.73	1.50	13.14	1877376	Balance	57	34
2025-11-28	1.60	1.49	4.92	566878	Rotation Down	25	17
2025-11-21	1.45	1.48	-3.64	838464	Rotation Down	-18	33
2025-11-14	1.42	1.47	-8.90	397658	Balance	-23	32
2025-11-07	1.42	1.47	-7.13	754180	Balance	-6	20
2025-10-31	1.45	1.46	-6.17	533830	Balance	12	17
2025-10-24	1.51	1.46	-1.02	615497	Upward Expansion	32	21
2025-10-17	1.52	1.44	1.14	812281	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-10-10	1.58	1.43	4.23	1383495	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-10-03	1.53	1.41	-2.33	1835276	Upward Expansion	61	57
2025-09-26	1.70	1.40	9.85	743052	Upward Expansion	75	81
2025-09-19	1.69	1.38	10.21	1105844	Upward Expansion	79	80
2025-09-12	1.62	1.36	4.74	933470	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-09-05	1.60	1.35	5.47	1124149	Deceleration	71	44
2025-08-29	1.52	1.33	-1.65	1047773	Deceleration	48	24
2025-08-22	1.45	1.33	-8.47	510305	Deceleration	34	23
2025-08-15	1.43	1.32	-9.17	413020	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-08-08	1.40	1.32	-9.10	657314	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-08-01	1.43	1.31	-4.24	3230232	Upward Expansion	62	55
2025-07-25	1.58	1.31	4.04	1233046	Upward Expansion	82	88
2025-07-18	1.54	1.30	2.76	962017	Upward Expansion	80	80
2025-07-11	1.50	1.29	0.63	1453060	Upward Expansion	76	64
2025-07-04	1.43	1.29	-2.97	561220	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-06-27	1.41	1.29	-4.09	225851	Upward Expansion	58	52
2025-06-20	1.41	1.29	-3.18	200008	Upward Expansion	62	64
2025-06-13	1.40	1.29	-4.25	310046	Rotation Up	64	70
2025-06-06	1.44	1.29	-4.40	297830	Rotation Up	43	57
2025-05-30	1.44	1.29	-2.89	1769836	Rotation Up	46	54
2025-05-23	1.41	1.28	-3.22	1220929	Rotation Up	38	51
2025-05-16	1.33	1.28	-11.36	702276	Rotation Up	25	43
2025-05-09	1.34	1.29	-7.85	1004462	Rotation Up	27	37
2025-05-02	1.34	1.29	-5.84	336523	Balance	26	32
2025-04-25	1.29	1.29	-6.51	377204	Balance	0	20
2025-04-18	1.30	1.29	-2.92	482749	Downward Expansion	-10	18
2025-04-11	1.28	1.30	0.60	1471115	Downward Expansion	-24	18
2025-04-04	1.23	1.31	-5.12	2899989	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-03-28	1.12	1.31	-23.37	860483	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-03-21	1.14	1.33	-23.07	641832	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2025-03-14	1.10	1.34	-25.96	2416427	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2025-03-07	1.11	1.35	-26.04	1077074	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-02-28	1.12	1.36	-26.28	608798	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2025-02-21	1.12	1.36	-26.18	911920	Downward Expansion	-84	81
2025-02-14	1.15	1.36	-23.58	1207211	Downward Expansion	-82	67
2025-02-07	1.27	1.37	-13.50	977496	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-01-31	1.29	1.36	-10.91	842834	Rotation Down	-62	65
2025-01-24	1.25	1.36	-12.80	703154	Rotation Down	-44	64
2025-01-17	1.27	1.36	-11.76	746060	Rotation Down	-43	61
2025-01-10	1.26	1.35	-9.22	850134	Rotation Down	-48	61
2025-01-03	1.32	1.35	-2.24	134110	Deceleration	-27	42
2024-12-27	1.33	1.34	-0.76	84989	Deceleration	-1	22
2024-12-20	1.33	1.34	0.29	1337042	Deceleration	0	10
2024-12-13	1.37	1.33	0.66	1060394	Deceleration	16	9
2024-12-06	1.40	1.33	4.00	923855	Deceleration	36	21
2024-11-29	1.40	1.32	8.97	598563	Deceleration	37	23
2024-11-22	1.42	1.32	10.76	1141229	Deceleration	37	22
2024-11-15	1.45	1.32	11.86	1397922	Deceleration	54	26
2024-11-08	1.41	1.32	10.70	1214274	Deceleration	32	17
2024-11-01	1.37	1.33	6.25	831066	Deceleration	30	18
2024-10-25	1.39	1.33	7.60	703475	Deceleration	33	18
2024-10-18	1.39	1.33	7.58	941315	Deceleration	35	21
2024-10-11	1.41	1.35	12.21	1180361	Rotation Up	12	13
2024-10-04	1.41	1.36	14.80	1088900	Rotation Up	17	20
2024-09-27	1.37	1.36	8.55	1634111	Rotation Up	29	25
2024-09-20	1.51	1.36	23.52	915624	Rotation Up	40	39
2024-09-13	1.49	1.36	23.27	1195460	Rotation Up	31	53
2024-09-06	1.40	1.34	17.12	777689	Rotation Up	28	59
2024-08-30	1.50	1.33	22.00	2161671	Rotation Up	34	65
2024-08-23	1.53	1.31	27.98	2332811	Rotation Up	44	61
2024-08-16	1.45	1.30	23.61	1780190	Balance	34	33
2024-08-09	1.36	1.28	21.52	1932761	Balance	-8	13
2024-08-02	1.31	1.26	16.22	8612557	Rotation Down	1	7
2024-07-26	1.12	1.25	-5.67	3258632	Rotation Down	-25	23
2024-07-19	1.17	1.25	-2.85	1286556	Rotation Down	-15	16
2024-07-12	1.20	1.24	-1.18	1597327	Rotation Down	-19	20
2024-07-05	1.14	1.22	-4.55	1116465	Rotation Down	-34	36
2024-06-28	1.22	1.22	4.30	1000577	Rotation Down	-25	41
2024-06-21	1.12	1.20	-4.70	346708	Rotation Down	-29	49
2024-06-14	1.11	1.19	-3.21	458386	Deceleration	-30	47
2024-06-07	1.13	1.18	-6.93	419703	Deceleration	-11	31
2024-05-31	1.18	1.17	-2.23	428402	Deceleration	-6	23
2024-05-24	1.24	1.15	3.05	670731	Deceleration	2	20
2024-05-17	1.21	1.14	-2.08	751148	Deceleration	10	19
2024-05-10	1.24	1.12	2.61	2335820	Deceleration	22	20
2024-05-03	1.24	1.11	6.20	1962859	Deceleration	31	20
2024-04-26	1.47	1.11	24.57	426848	Deceleration	44	35
2024-04-19	1.53	1.09	31.86	1187041	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-04-12	1.52	1.07	33.04	806474	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-04-05	1.55	1.05	35.50	2076034	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-03-29	1.43	1.04	23.47	4788794	Upward Expansion	68	75
2024-03-22	1.85	1.02	63.16	4473747	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-15	1.64	0.9951	48.73	1993296	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-03-08	1.55	0.9745	44.56	3057145	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-01	1.51	0.9577	44.19	8389928	Upward Expansion	96	97
2024-02-23	1.31	0.9419	26.82	3844737	Rotation Up	94	87
2024-02-16	1.05	0.9352	5.39	597172	Rotation Up	42	51
2024-02-09	0.998	0.9349	2.58	1673093	Rotation Up	25	44
2024-02-02	1.02	0.9374	6.56	1119340	Rotation Up	34	49
2024-01-26	0.992	0.9345	5.30	864592	Rotation Up	29	43
2024-01-19	0.95	0.93	1.78	991273	Balance	21	28
2024-01-12	0.922	0.9263	-1.37	332008	Balance	-5	19
2024-01-05	0.933	0.9234	0.35	897294	Balance	-3	17
2023-12-29	0.972	0.9201	5.26	834024	Downward Expansion	-5	16
2023-12-22	0.869	0.9163	-5.53	267591	Downward Expansion	-34	23
2023-12-15	0.85	0.915	-7.47	418178	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2023-12-08	0.856	0.9162	-6.77	480201	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2023-12-01	0.814	0.9159	-9.77	1385087	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2023-11-24	0.852	0.9119	-3.82	1988167	Rotation Down	-66	74
2023-11-17	0.715	0.9105	-19.61	452042	Rotation Down	-48	81
2023-11-10	0.711	0.913	-17.65	580099	Rotation Down	-56	83
2023-11-03	0.759	0.917	-12.94	951948	Rotation Down	-45	73
2023-10-27	0.759	0.9164	-8.13	597581	Deceleration	-48	66
2023-10-20	0.824	0.914	-0.02	875205	Deceleration	-18	22

Price vs TrendBelow-3.2%

Trend directionFalling-1.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+14.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.6%

Price momentumNegative-7.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.79×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-34 / ±100

+32.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

20 /100

-62.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EXAI Directional State ↗ EXAI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration47

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion59

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	+2.5%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-08-21	Established	-3.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-6.5%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-04-17	Developing	+8.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-02-20	Developing	-0.2%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	-4.3%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	+10.3%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-2.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-24	Developing	-6.8%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+10.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-08-15	Developing	+1.4%
Rotation Up	2025-05-09	2025-06-13	Developing	+4.3%
Balance	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+3.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-04-18	Developing	+2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing45

Stage 2 · Advancing24

Stage 3 · Distribution59

Stage 4 · Declining76

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 60/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.35
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -7.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.6%
Technology regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test EXAI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.90×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.79×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EXAI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 1.61rising

Slow Activity EUR 1.64falling

Trend Reference EUR 1.66-3.2% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 1.41+14.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 1.46shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +14.5%

From structural high -18.1%

From structural low +17.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	-5.2%-39.3% to +32.3%	+38.5%	+57.7%	-5.6%	+88.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-16.2%-39.5% to +85.5%	+37.5%	+62.5%	-12.7%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-11.6%-48.4% to +45.0%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-30.3%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+18.9%-65.1% to +72.2%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-4.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EXAI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map