Weekly structural research · MEX · Technology

LRCX Stage Analysis

Lam Research Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 5,604.57Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 7−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 36/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +123.4%MXN 2,508.50 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5,604.57	5,167.20	31.50	8474	Deceleration	7	17
2026-09-18	4,894.66	5,115.11	19.47	5056	Deceleration	-37	56
2026-09-11	5,055.49	5,091.11	23.79	19921	Deceleration	-13	39
2026-09-04	5,153.38	5,056.28	26.15	13014	Deceleration	-6	18
2026-08-28	5,171.48	5,016.16	27.27	2177	Deceleration	-5	18
2026-08-21	5,294.23	4,980.17	31.70	2903	Deceleration	2	19
2026-08-14	5,652.00	4,930.02	45.77	8625	Deceleration	21	29
2026-08-07	5,336.00	4,872.42	34.79	18486	Deceleration	22	36
2026-07-31	5,204.00	4,821.21	33.50	140	Deceleration	27	34
2026-07-24	5,340.00	4,750.41	40.28	217	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-07-17	5,434.00	4,677.10	44.55	749	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-07-10	6,294.24	4,599.29	70.57	35	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-07-03	6,700.00	4,488.68	83.93	0	Upward Expansion	77	92
2026-06-26	6,594.60	4,362.01	85.06	7870	Upward Expansion	81	92
2026-06-19	6,831.98	4,235.00	95.03	0	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-06-12	6,395.42	4,094.43	86.79	345	Upward Expansion	94	90
2026-06-05	5,356.18	3,974.83	64.77	879	Upward Expansion	67	76
2026-05-29	5,574.77	3,892.64	68.85	3025	Upward Expansion	83	88
2026-05-22	5,342.04	3,806.28	66.00	5286	Upward Expansion	82	79
2026-05-15	5,063.63	3,720.87	61.46	4424	Upward Expansion	79	83
2026-05-08	5,099.79	3,640.40	61.33	22097	Upward Expansion	87	91
2026-05-01	4,490.82	3,551.73	49.21	57206	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-04-24	4,647.41	3,491.52	54.01	7173	Upward Expansion	77	84
2026-04-17	4,594.81	3,415.47	53.84	1976	Upward Expansion	80	70
2026-04-10	4,608.00	3,338.95	56.58	1910	Deceleration	83	58
2026-04-03	3,964.00	3,251.00	37.71	1785	Deceleration	45	32
2026-03-27	3,822.15	3,182.31	40.95	7239	Deceleration	42	28
2026-03-20	4,065.87	3,118.49	58.04	7196	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-03-13	3,740.49	3,044.58	44.37	34234	Upward Expansion	50	46
2026-03-06	3,690.00	2,982.21	40.76	10483	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-02-27	4,041.90	2,922.36	47.13	10895	Upward Expansion	68	66
2026-02-20	4,174.73	2,847.28	53.94	5375	Upward Expansion	82	73
2026-02-13	4,010.55	2,769.51	49.74	634	Upward Expansion	73	70
2026-02-06	3,949.74	2,699.10	50.81	2306	Upward Expansion	70	84
2026-01-30	4,091.85	2,630.73	65.71	2227	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-01-23	3,789.75	2,555.65	54.32	3470	Upward Expansion	81	93
2026-01-16	3,923.90	2,490.81	64.31	2128	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-01-09	3,799.75	2,416.99	63.92	2446	Upward Expansion	98	98
2026-01-02	3,079.80	2,347.55	38.78	69	Upward Expansion	70	86
2025-12-26	3,140.80	2,299.87	39.67	819	Upward Expansion	80	85
2025-12-19	3,099.80	2,247.15	42.86	32	Upward Expansion	82	69
2025-12-12	2,975.81	2,199.07	37.06	31	Upward Expansion	75	59
2025-12-05	2,899.81	2,155.12	37.66	48	Upward Expansion	74	59
2025-11-28	2,784.57	2,107.94	32.91	71	Upward Expansion	65	60
2025-11-21	2,614.60	2,064.07	29.29	32	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-11-14	2,807.57	2,023.90	38.89	39	Upward Expansion	67	68
2025-11-07	2,890.56	1,978.13	42.03	16146	Upward Expansion	76	73
2025-10-31	2,984.04	1,929.59	49.42	8492	Upward Expansion	92	77
2025-10-24	2,779.57	1,870.98	44.41	1108	Upward Expansion	87	81
2025-10-17	2,649.59	1,829.30	37.62	678	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-10-10	2,439.62	1,793.16	30.42	660	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-10-03	2,684.68	1,764.02	41.10	11146	Upward Expansion	99	99
2025-09-26	2,365.64	1,727.84	24.73	132	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-09-19	2,299.40	1,701.46	23.99	32	Upward Expansion	96	95
2025-09-12	1,969.49	1,683.82	5.78	42	Upward Expansion	80	63
2025-09-05	1,903.16	1,673.80	4.69	212	Upward Expansion	67	55
2025-08-29	1,907.55	1,666.63	8.27	101	Upward Expansion	71	59
2025-08-22	1,848.61	1,660.57	4.17	11179	Upward Expansion	51	48
2025-08-15	1,869.51	1,654.52	7.05	5168	Upward Expansion	66	57
2025-08-08	1,894.51	1,647.99	9.09	224	Upward Expansion	75	65
2025-08-01	1,789.53	1,637.81	5.25	172	Upward Expansion	66	78
2025-07-25	1,841.52	1,627.86	7.48	200	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-07-18	1,898.38	1,616.17	12.92	0	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-07-11	1,898.38	1,601.20	12.47	16528	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-07-04	1,839.52	1,588.89	6.22	50	Upward Expansion	81	89
2025-06-27	1,844.52	1,579.70	7.18	3910	Upward Expansion	84	79
2025-06-20	1,709.55	1,568.39	1.01	23037	Rotation Up	60	60
2025-06-13	1,716.36	1,560.63	-1.03	35340	Rotation Up	47	60
2025-06-06	1,649.35	1,551.29	-6.11	48398	Downward Expansion	37	39
2025-05-30	1,559.38	1,548.44	-11.12	669	Downward Expansion	6	26
2025-05-23	1,657.34	1,546.96	-6.60	0	Downward Expansion	19	29
2025-05-16	1,657.34	1,543.68	-5.96	5325	Downward Expansion	-7	12
2025-05-09	1,484.41	1,536.74	-13.58	1256	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-05-02	1,468.42	1,540.55	-13.41	1400	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-04-25	1,409.44	1,544.20	-18.26	284	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2025-04-18	1,434.43	1,551.43	-11.05	0	Rotation Down	-64	76
2025-04-11	1,434.43	1,553.22	-8.41	1587	Rotation Down	-27	60
2025-04-04	1,225.62	1,554.37	-21.68	261	Rotation Down	-57	69
2025-03-28	1,529.40	1,562.94	-5.64	15	Deceleration	-16	27
2025-03-21	1,565.38	1,564.87	-2.43	0	Deceleration	12	25
2025-03-14	1,565.38	1,566.63	-1.97	23095	Deceleration	25	18
2025-03-07	1,599.37	1,568.70	-0.41	631	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-02-28	1,574.15	1,570.78	-1.04	3229	Upward Expansion	53	38
2025-02-21	1,770.04	1,573.69	8.47	10046	Upward Expansion	81	81
2025-02-14	1,669.09	1,570.08	2.03	6	Rotation Up	66	78
2025-02-07	1,688.08	1,570.17	5.88	215	Rotation Up	38	68
2025-01-31	1,725.65	1,579.67	12.05	184	Rotation Up	51	71
2025-01-24	1,667.10	1,587.92	8.58	30	Balance	33	53
2025-01-17	1,673.47	1,597.05	12.54	5	Balance	12	18
2025-01-10	1,589.14	1,605.21	8.22	182	Downward Expansion	-22	14
2025-01-03	1,490.99	1,609.72	3.39	0	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2024-12-27	1,490.99	1,617.50	3.13	85	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2024-12-20	1,449.21	1,621.56	0.08	27688	Downward Expansion	-61	30
2024-12-13	1,529.17	1,627.19	1.86	211	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-12-06	1,563.91	1,629.08	5.19	1382	Downward Expansion	-52	35
2024-11-29	1,504.95	1,628.53	4.89	3507	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-11-22	1,476.97	1,629.96	2.19	671	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2024-11-15	1,436.00	1,630.39	-0.28	7316	Downward Expansion	-75	50
2024-11-08	1,563.91	1,632.19	6.11	83	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-11-01	1,515.10	1,633.18	5.77	6274	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-10-25	1,558.92	1,635.46	6.90	1558	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2024-10-18	1,448.99	1,636.28	-2.55	3403	Downward Expansion	-72	44
2024-10-11	1,598.77	1,640.77	9.05	577	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-10-04	1,577.90	1,640.26	7.72	114	Rotation Down	-35	41
2024-09-27	1,626.37	1,643.66	11.22	130	Rotation Down	-40	67
2024-09-20	1,488.24	1,641.92	3.57	7910	Rotation Down	-49	82
2024-09-13	1,468.75	1,643.10	3.15	860	Rotation Down	-51	78
2024-09-06	1,482.73	1,646.41	6.59	430	Rotation Down	-55	72
2024-08-30	1,587.49	1,647.13	10.79	990	Rotation Down	-39	46
2024-08-23	1,618.03	1,641.46	12.42	150	Deceleration	-33	43
2024-08-16	1,627.61	1,637.17	12.59	990	Deceleration	-0	33
2024-08-09	1,661.58	1,628.87	17.95	0	Deceleration	9	39
2024-08-02	1,661.58	1,618.35	20.57	0	Upward Expansion	23	36
2024-07-26	1,661.58	1,607.83	20.11	70	Upward Expansion	43	47
2024-07-19	1,671.94	1,597.30	19.77	640	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-07-12	1,973.08	1,585.61	39.21	0	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-07-05	1,973.08	1,563.59	47.92	520	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-06-28	1,940.92	1,538.69	47.22	280	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-06-21	1,918.37	1,514.86	46.45	2340	Upward Expansion	100	100
2024-06-14	1,724.35	1,491.14	34.77	0	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-06-07	1,724.35	1,473.89	34.27	730	Upward Expansion	95	97
2024-05-31	1,612.92	1,456.37	21.86	2850	Upward Expansion	73	76
2024-05-24	1,618.06	1,441.60	22.82	450	Deceleration	78	59
2024-05-17	1,585.89	1,426.66	16.90	4210	Deceleration	59	36
2024-05-10	1,547.52	1,412.79	14.72	3490	Deceleration	33	30
2024-05-03	1,547.91	1,399.67	16.80	1120	Deceleration	36	29
2024-04-26	1,489.84	1,385.89	11.94	0	Deceleration	39	29
2024-04-19	1,489.84	1,373.09	16.69	520	Upward Expansion	45	41
2024-04-12	1,593.71	1,358.47	24.19	2270	Upward Expansion	54	56
2024-04-05	1,583.54	1,340.87	21.22	0	Upward Expansion	62	61
2024-03-29	1,583.54	1,325.25	23.72	0	Upward Expansion	65	66
2024-03-22	1,583.54	1,309.64	26.43	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-03-15	1,583.54	1,294.01	28.36	1000	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-03-08	1,679.92	1,278.39	40.55	100	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-03-01	1,574.02	1,261.95	31.91	3650	Upward Expansion	85	75
2024-02-23	1,523.86	1,249.04	26.56	200	Upward Expansion	74	71
2024-02-16	1,567.82	1,238.19	30.16	140	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-02-09	1,504.35	1,221.91	25.57	140	Upward Expansion	94	78
2024-02-02	1,417.48	1,207.75	17.35	320	Upward Expansion	72	70
2024-01-26	1,489.37	1,195.79	27.06	1920	Upward Expansion	99	80
2024-01-19	1,378.52	1,181.84	21.66	600	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-01-12	1,345.95	1,171.59	19.37	0	Upward Expansion	79	93
2024-01-05	1,345.95	1,162.34	19.21	0	Upward Expansion	91	97
2023-12-29	1,345.95	1,152.69	17.71	1400	Upward Expansion	98	99
2023-12-22	1,321.08	1,140.11	16.50	110	Upward Expansion	98	99
2023-12-15	1,312.59	1,128.36	16.99	240	Upward Expansion	99	97
2023-12-08	1,225.99	1,116.89	15.32	0	Upward Expansion	80	91
2023-12-01	1,225.99	1,108.30	16.76	100	Upward Expansion	88	94
2023-11-24	1,206.81	1,099.72	17.47	0	Upward Expansion	81	93
2023-11-17	1,206.81	1,091.77	18.52	650	Upward Expansion	89	96
2023-11-10	1,198.75	1,083.83	21.50	60	Upward Expansion	88	95
2023-11-03	1,169.85	1,076.15	19.12	0	Upward Expansion	75	91
2023-10-27	1,169.85	1,069.44	26.01	0	Upward Expansion	80	92
2023-10-20	1,169.85	1,062.73	29.26	50	Upward Expansion	80	64
2023-10-13	1,153.90	1,056.01	26.03	110	Deceleration	65	44
2023-10-06	1,134.44	1,049.83	24.40	190	Deceleration	39	28

Price vs TrendAbove+8.5%

Trend directionRising+10.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+123.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-84.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+31.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-53.6%

Price momentumPositive+46.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

7 / ±100

+11.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

17 /100

-1.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LRCX Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion45

Deceleration76

Rotation Down41

Downward Expansion41

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 60%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 13%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-09-25	Developing	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-07-24	Established	+16.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+20.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2026-03-20	Extended	+120.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-06	Developing	+17.0%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-18	New	+17.0%
Deceleration	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	-9.6%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-14	New	-3.3%
Balance	2025-01-17	2025-01-24	New	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-18	2025-01-10	Established	+9.7%
Deceleration	2024-10-11	2024-10-11	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2024-08-30	2024-10-04	Developing	-0.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing1

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution72

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 21/100
Current Relative Strength: 31.50
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +46.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +49.2%
Technology regime cohort: 17th percentile29 in cohort

Test LRCX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.67×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LRCX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 5,216.41falling

Slow Activity MXN 5,425.73rising

Trend Reference MXN 5,167.20+8.5% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 2,508.50+123.4% close margin

Structural low MXN 3,625.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +7.2%

Annualized volatility +51.9%

From structural high -18.0%

From structural low +132.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+3.9%-10.8% to +21.6%	+53.8%	+53.8%	+1.5%	+30.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+10.6%-22.8% to +72.5%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+9.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+17.2%-23.0% to +50.6%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+12.9%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-5.4%-28.2% to +63.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-3.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LRCX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

RMI Reversal Map