Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

DAL Stage Analysis

Dalaroo Metals Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.115Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
A price shock beyond the complete Activity structure bypassed the ordinary persistence gate.

Direction 86−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +201.0%AUD 0.0382 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.115	0.0702	84.20	40045871	Upward Expansion	86	71
2026-10-02	0.075	0.0683	22.97	1449860	Balance	55	25
2026-09-25	0.072	0.0678	19.48	1272158	Balance	37	17
2026-09-18	0.068	0.0677	12.87	866615	Upward Expansion	11	6
2026-09-11	0.072	0.0672	20.19	773420	Upward Expansion	50	33
2026-09-04	0.074	0.0671	20.82	34472	Deceleration	60	40
2026-08-28	0.07	0.0665	14.10	37152	Deceleration	35	23
2026-08-21	0.073	0.0663	20.59	170823	Deceleration	46	32
2026-08-14	0.072	0.0665	19.44	105890	Deceleration	35	19
2026-08-07	0.07	0.0666	15.41	80755	Deceleration	29	18
2026-07-31	0.07	0.0658	20.77	0	Upward Expansion	32	16
2026-07-24	0.066	0.0649	18.09	43181	Upward Expansion	31	19
2026-07-17	0.072	0.0641	30.06	429178	Upward Expansion	55	47
2026-07-10	0.073	0.0632	33.76	120313	Upward Expansion	56	49
2026-07-03	0.074	0.0624	37.10	380639	Upward Expansion	59	46
2026-06-26	0.074	0.0617	40.46	619539	Deceleration	58	32
2026-06-19	0.074	0.0606	41.50	388466	Deceleration	46	22
2026-06-12	0.07	0.0595	36.11	768658	Deceleration	36	19
2026-06-05	0.063	0.0585	26.65	817634	Upward Expansion	36	18
2026-05-29	0.066	0.0576	32.68	150000	Upward Expansion	52	33
2026-05-22	0.068	0.0569	39.88	1941490	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-05-15	0.073	0.0564	52.99	1337473	Upward Expansion	62	69
2026-05-08	0.075	0.0559	57.81	3385678	Upward Expansion	62	69
2026-05-01	0.085	0.0552	82.17	4861811	Deceleration	77	70
2026-04-24	0.066	0.0538	44.01	2475588	Deceleration	42	33
2026-04-17	0.069	0.0532	50.49	6504563	Deceleration	42	16
2026-04-10	0.058	0.0525	28.86	978484	Deceleration	11	13
2026-04-03	0.048	0.0522	13.34	936302	Deceleration	-15	17
2026-03-27	0.05	0.0522	20.52	1287754	Deceleration	16	14
2026-03-20	0.052	0.0518	28.42	1801052	Deceleration	26	13
2026-03-13	0.057	0.0514	39.73	1728342	Deceleration	36	18
2026-03-06	0.059	0.0509	43.31	1232668	Deceleration	39	24
2026-02-27	0.069	0.0497	64.26	1840487	Deceleration	52	29
2026-02-20	0.055	0.0484	35.50	2497382	Upward Expansion	51	29
2026-02-13	0.067	0.0476	70.69	6491114	Upward Expansion	63	60
2026-02-06	0.058	0.0463	54.56	7114946	Upward Expansion	60	73
2026-01-30	0.063	0.0453	68.26	9658506	Upward Expansion	59	73
2026-01-23	0.08	0.0442	118.63	67891527	Upward Expansion	83	81
2026-01-16	0.074	0.0427	107.90	43823909	Upward Expansion	80	65
2026-01-09	0.046	0.0414	36.02	1451745	Balance	19	11
2026-01-02	0.043	0.041	28.83	58114	Balance	24	10
2025-12-26	0.042	0.0406	27.09	145775	Balance	27	19
2025-12-19	0.045	0.0401	40.18	588138	Balance	33	23
2025-12-12	0.048	0.0396	50.44	297198	Balance	34	20
2025-12-05	0.054	0.039	73.53	2835499	Balance	34	14
2025-11-28	0.042	0.0382	38.14	700	Balance	7	17
2025-11-21	0.039	0.0377	33.11	424894	Upward Expansion	15	20
2025-11-14	0.041	0.0371	37.84	575192	Upward Expansion	27	19
2025-11-07	0.035	0.0364	17.14	1806927	Upward Expansion	24	16
2025-10-31	0.047	0.0357	55.97	715013	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-10-24	0.051	0.0347	68.79	1057949	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-10-17	0.058	0.0336	95.11	8184593	Upward Expansion	75	54
2025-10-10	0.054	0.0324	86.39	6607012	Upward Expansion	75	54
2025-10-03	0.045	0.0312	57.73	2903129	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-09-26	0.048	0.0303	73.99	6785536	Upward Expansion	68	73
2025-09-19	0.047	0.0293	72.94	1557536	Upward Expansion	70	79
2025-09-12	0.049	0.0285	80.76	6903366	Upward Expansion	77	84
2025-09-05	0.048	0.0276	78.58	5986444	Upward Expansion	82	84
2025-08-29	0.039	0.0266	45.56	1463282	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-08-22	0.04	0.026	50.37	4507211	Deceleration	69	54
2025-08-15	0.04	0.0252	52.80	10299652	Deceleration	69	36
2025-08-08	0.025	0.0245	-2.13	511092	Deceleration	15	15
2025-08-01	0.029	0.0243	15.24	1282510	Deceleration	31	19
2025-07-25	0.03	0.024	19.41	444853	Deceleration	34	20
2025-07-18	0.028	0.0236	10.52	1687817	Upward Expansion	39	22
2025-07-11	0.029	0.0233	16.78	677444	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-07-04	0.031	0.0229	24.18	437992	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-06-27	0.033	0.0226	34.50	802826	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-06-20	0.035	0.0221	44.05	2097253	Upward Expansion	72	56
2025-06-13	0.035	0.0217	44.35	10393232	Upward Expansion	77	56
2025-06-06	0.031	0.0213	29.54	1193526	Upward Expansion	71	72
2025-05-30	0.028	0.0212	18.81	760992	Upward Expansion	65	81
2025-05-23	0.028	0.0211	19.92	487082	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-05-16	0.03	0.0211	28.74	1645875	Rotation Up	77	85
2025-05-09	0.032	0.0208	39.58	2628862	Rotation Up	58	62
2025-05-02	0.025	0.0206	9.36	905749	Balance	30	23
2025-04-25	0.022	0.0206	-0.31	1181807	Downward Expansion	-16	12
2025-04-18	0.019	0.0208	-12.43	2056901	Downward Expansion	-52	39
2025-04-11	0.015	0.021	-29.28	1007339	Downward Expansion	-76	62
2025-04-04	0.017	0.0216	-20.13	100000	Downward Expansion	-64	46
2025-03-28	0.019	0.0219	-14.15	20085	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2025-03-21	0.02	0.0222	-8.83	50000	Downward Expansion	-38	28
2025-03-14	0.018	0.0222	-16.18	0	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2025-03-07	0.018	0.0224	-18.03	383198	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2025-02-28	0.02	0.0226	-11.36	1098688	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2025-02-21	0.021	0.0227	-8.32	1444857	Downward Expansion	-31	22
2025-02-14	0.023	0.0228	-2.69	1504891	Downward Expansion	-22	18
2025-02-07	0.018	0.0229	-23.41	15000	Downward Expansion	-72	56
2025-01-31	0.02	0.0233	-15.55	284102	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2025-01-24	0.018	0.0233	-23.09	0	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2025-01-17	0.018	0.0234	-22.52	329631	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2025-01-10	0.02	0.0236	-14.29	2372570	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2025-01-03	0.018	0.0236	-22.94	35000	Downward Expansion	-73	84
2024-12-27	0.019	0.0238	-19.26	117389	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2024-12-20	0.019	0.024	-17.64	735542	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2024-12-13	0.018	0.0242	-24.49	45231	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2024-12-06	0.02	0.0244	-17.77	69063	Balance	-70	69
2024-11-29	0.02	0.0246	-18.52	366384	Balance	-33	42
2024-11-22	0.023	0.0247	-7.40	118908	Balance	-17	13
2024-11-15	0.023	0.0247	-7.11	45706	Balance	3	3
2024-11-08	0.027	0.0245	7.70	933628	Balance	34	14
2024-11-01	0.025	0.0241	0.66	550690	Balance	22	15
2024-10-25	0.027	0.0238	6.67	758764	Balance	32	20
2024-10-18	0.023	0.0235	-10.54	1068758	Balance	11	14
2024-10-11	0.024	0.0232	-7.59	955036	Upward Expansion	29	15
2024-10-04	0.026	0.0231	-1.76	858734	Upward Expansion	55	53
2024-09-27	0.027	0.0228	-1.26	0	Upward Expansion	56	62
2024-09-20	0.027	0.0225	-3.51	53444	Upward Expansion	56	61
2024-09-13	0.033	0.0223	16.66	2466640	Balance	77	59
2024-09-06	0.025	0.0219	-12.47	165072	Balance	37	18
2024-08-30	0.027	0.0218	-8.30	651414	Balance	47	20
2024-08-23	0.02	0.0216	-32.61	504653	Balance	9	11
2024-08-16	0.024	0.0216	-20.47	216874	Upward Expansion	37	20
2024-08-09	0.024	0.0216	-20.28	0	Upward Expansion	48	44
2024-08-02	0.024	0.0216	-23.56	1110232	Upward Expansion	51	55
2024-07-26	0.025	0.0216	-22.07	175470	Upward Expansion	51	51
2024-07-19	0.026	0.0215	-20.91	987603	Balance	52	40
2024-07-12	0.03	0.0214	-10.66	925321	Balance	60	28
2024-07-05	0.02	0.0211	-40.93	72736	Balance	0	7
2024-06-28	0.02	0.0213	-42.36	2569019	Balance	-4	9
2024-06-21	0.024	0.0218	-33.53	4418723	Balance	11	8
2024-06-14	0.021	0.022	-43.01	405630	Rotation Up	10	11
2024-06-07	0.022	0.0223	-43.01	1142558	Rotation Up	18	25
2024-05-31	0.025	0.0228	-35.68	669726	Rotation Up	23	40
2024-05-24	0.026	0.023	-34.68	80144	Rotation Up	28	37
2024-05-17	0.025	0.0231	-39.10	596020	Balance	24	30
2024-05-10	0.026	0.0236	-37.16	2522495	Balance	8	19
2024-05-03	0.021	0.0245	-49.22	1637395	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2024-04-26	0.023	0.0255	-44.94	1102306	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2024-04-19	0.018	0.0265	-57.73	25881753	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-04-12	0.016	0.0277	-64.30	10000	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-04-05	0.016	0.029	-64.94	30543	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2024-03-29	0.016	0.0302	-66.17	58846	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2024-03-22	0.016	0.0312	-66.30	232290	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-03-15	0.02	0.0323	-58.19	405561	Downward Expansion	-66	86
2024-03-08	0.017	0.0334	-65.89	1427752	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-03-01	0.019	0.0347	-62.24	453180	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2024-02-23	0.02	0.036	-60.63	25000	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2024-02-16	0.02	0.0371	-61.63	140000	Downward Expansion	-67	55
2024-02-09	0.022	0.0384	-58.84	90	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-02-02	0.021	0.04	-61.94	767059	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2024-01-26	0.021	0.0416	-62.17	365327	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2024-01-19	0.023	0.0435	-58.74	1933	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2024-01-12	0.025	0.0452	-56.62	854353	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-01-05	0.023	0.0468	-60.91	1150016	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2023-12-29	0.022	0.0484	-64.02	20000	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2023-12-22	0.023	0.0497	-62.94	476838	Downward Expansion	-73	66
2023-12-15	0.022	0.051	-65.16	1955106	Downward Expansion	-79	65
2023-12-08	0.025	0.0521	-60.17	7892798	Downward Expansion	-78	62
2023-12-01	0.035	0.0531	-44.71	44227045	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-11-24	0.03	0.0538	-53.54	110755	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2023-11-17	0.032	0.055	-51.67	916923	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2023-11-10	0.036	0.0561	-46.33	490000	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2023-11-03	0.03	0.0569	-56.48	10000	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2023-10-27	0.03	0.0579	-56.62	786527	Downward Expansion	-93	91
2023-10-20	0.04	0.0589	-44.19	1076195	Downward Expansion	-83	72

Price vs TrendAbove+63.7%

Trend directionRising+6.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+201.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+100.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+84.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+50.4%

Price momentumPositive+98.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led20.04×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

86 / ±100

+37.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

71 /100

+38.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DAL Directional State ↗ DAL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance37

Rotation Up75

Upward Expansion87

Deceleration46

Rotation Down12

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 15%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-5.6%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-09-04	Developing	+5.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-07-31	Developing	-5.4%
Deceleration	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+5.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-06-05	Developing	-16.0%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-05-01	Developing	+23.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-02-20	Developing	-25.7%
Balance	2025-11-28	2026-01-09	Developing	+9.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-11-21	Established	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-07-25	2025-08-22	Developing	+33.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-07-18	Developing	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	-6.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing31

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 84.20
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +98.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +101.0%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 72th percentile94 in cohort

Test DAL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume16.50×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume20.04×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+87.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DAL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.0866rising

Slow Activity AUD 0.0738rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.0702+63.7% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.0382+201.0% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.054shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.9%

Annualized volatility +80.7%

From structural high -32.4%

From structural low +228.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-2.7%-23.5% to +59.7%	+43.8%	+43.8%	-4.1%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+7.7%-6.8% to +42.9%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+4.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+39.3%-28.0% to +74.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+38.6%	+66.7%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+49.7%+20.0% to +79.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+44.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DAL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map