Weekly structural research · ASX · Energy

KKO Stage Analysis

Kinetiko Energy Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.033Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 77/100directional strength

Maturity 84/100lifecycle context

Confidence 70/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -50.9%AUD 0.0673 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.033	0.0429	-36.38	554241	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2026-09-25	0.035	0.0436	-33.50	890334	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-09-18	0.037	0.0442	-31.36	899991	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2026-09-11	0.038	0.0448	-30.64	177201	Downward Expansion	-20	25
2026-09-04	0.041	0.0456	-28.47	16506	Downward Expansion	-6	24
2026-08-28	0.045	0.0462	-23.35	488885	Downward Expansion	1	23
2026-08-21	0.044	0.0471	-25.87	271426	Downward Expansion	-18	29
2026-08-14	0.038	0.048	-37.11	70354	Downward Expansion	-42	37
2026-08-07	0.039	0.0492	-37.73	1546415	Downward Expansion	-46	46
2026-07-31	0.04	0.0504	-35.00	124999	Downward Expansion	-50	55
2026-07-24	0.035	0.0514	-42.42	250700	Downward Expansion	-63	75
2026-07-17	0.035	0.0524	-43.37	119246	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2026-07-10	0.035	0.0534	-44.04	45529	Downward Expansion	-66	85
2026-07-03	0.036	0.0543	-43.19	1277	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-06-26	0.031	0.055	-51.08	602409	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2026-06-19	0.035	0.0558	-45.67	362751	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2026-06-12	0.037	0.0566	-42.75	441324	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2026-06-05	0.041	0.0578	-35.39	1800289	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2026-05-29	0.0435	0.0588	-32.48	387098	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2026-05-22	0.046	0.0598	-28.29	1941561	Downward Expansion	-71	47
2026-05-15	0.052	0.0609	-18.99	1090374	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2026-05-08	0.053	0.0614	-18.72	1328820	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-05-01	0.051	0.0621	-21.88	636226	Downward Expansion	-49	31
2026-04-24	0.057	0.0631	-13.55	1085943	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2026-04-17	0.054	0.0639	-19.73	1600544	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2026-04-10	0.049	0.0648	-27.55	775777	Downward Expansion	-69	52
2026-04-03	0.054	0.0659	-16.95	1257318	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2026-03-27	0.049	0.0669	-24.37	1361143	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2026-03-20	0.055	0.0682	-14.85	563950	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2026-03-13	0.049	0.069	-26.20	366212	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2026-03-06	0.054	0.0707	-21.47	621479	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2026-02-27	0.053	0.0716	-26.22	1190629	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2026-02-20	0.055	0.0722	-22.81	892008	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2026-02-13	0.06	0.073	-14.62	1068652	Balance	-50	34
2026-02-06	0.062	0.0733	-9.88	1953149	Balance	-43	19
2026-01-30	0.07	0.0733	-0.04	253589	Balance	-8	18
2026-01-23	0.07	0.0731	0.27	330891	Balance	-18	22
2026-01-16	0.074	0.0728	5.68	1046730	Balance	-13	21
2026-01-09	0.077	0.072	12.57	462529	Rotation Down	-11	19
2026-01-02	0.068	0.0709	-0.69	1321124	Rotation Down	-39	21
2025-12-26	0.066	0.0703	-3.92	207246	Rotation Down	-28	28
2025-12-19	0.066	0.07	-2.51	165403	Rotation Down	-35	57
2025-12-12	0.061	0.0696	-10.98	1730669	Rotation Down	-38	67
2025-12-05	0.057	0.0696	-16.58	1381926	Rotation Down	-47	69
2025-11-28	0.054	0.0696	-21.34	2042592	Rotation Down	-44	61
2025-11-21	0.06	0.0698	-11.08	861389	Deceleration	-37	44
2025-11-14	0.072	0.0698	3.80	548707	Deceleration	7	9
2025-11-07	0.073	0.0693	3.62	499961	Deceleration	10	12
2025-10-31	0.0715	0.0687	0.18	753348	Deceleration	8	12
2025-10-24	0.08	0.0683	9.97	1039226	Deceleration	21	15
2025-10-17	0.069	0.0679	-4.87	1175899	Deceleration	18	15
2025-10-10	0.073	0.0679	0.06	619196	Deceleration	32	18
2025-10-03	0.081	0.0678	9.66	695611	Deceleration	38	24
2025-09-26	0.081	0.0673	10.99	719059	Deceleration	41	27
2025-09-19	0.08	0.0667	9.41	1189860	Upward Expansion	45	34
2025-09-12	0.083	0.0662	12.15	258426	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-09-05	0.083	0.0656	12.04	1954794	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-08-29	0.089	0.0648	18.63	1732447	Upward Expansion	71	60
2025-08-22	0.079	0.0639	5.32	3147771	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-08-15	0.099	0.0632	31.94	2302911	Upward Expansion	96	97
2025-08-08	0.08	0.062	8.53	661878	Rotation Up	86	91
2025-08-01	0.072	0.0617	-0.96	673749	Rotation Up	44	74
2025-07-25	0.078	0.0614	6.71	707959	Rotation Up	54	72
2025-07-18	0.07	0.061	-5.32	321992	Downward Expansion	43	46
2025-07-11	0.062	0.0612	-14.71	515242	Downward Expansion	-8	23
2025-07-04	0.064	0.0615	-12.73	473079	Downward Expansion	-16	14
2025-06-27	0.06	0.062	-17.89	912978	Downward Expansion	-54	47
2025-06-20	0.053	0.0625	-27.96	557737	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2025-06-13	0.043	0.063	-42.06	683522	Downward Expansion	-90	90
2025-06-06	0.05	0.0638	-32.98	637326	Downward Expansion	-79	71
2025-05-30	0.056	0.0645	-24.82	155446	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2025-05-23	0.056	0.0652	-24.75	265547	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2025-05-16	0.059	0.0658	-20.92	503331	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2025-05-09	0.059	0.0671	-20.38	37585	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2025-05-02	0.059	0.0684	-20.99	287415	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2025-04-25	0.058	0.0701	-20.09	81219	Downward Expansion	-60	66
2025-04-18	0.059	0.0711	-17.69	1196083	Downward Expansion	-55	56
2025-04-11	0.054	0.0718	-23.37	940681	Downward Expansion	-67	42
2025-04-04	0.06	0.0726	-15.82	56683	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-03-28	0.069	0.0732	-7.69	597374	Downward Expansion	-13	14
2025-03-21	0.069	0.0737	-7.50	619188	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2025-03-14	0.07	0.0742	-4.57	1155832	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2025-03-07	0.065	0.0744	-13.18	307508	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-02-28	0.063	0.0749	-18.39	560805	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-02-21	0.065	0.0756	-17.06	1107454	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2025-02-14	0.066	0.0759	-18.32	3687900	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2025-02-07	0.059	0.0762	-26.81	2979394	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2025-01-31	0.06	0.0769	-26.23	818322	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2025-01-24	0.06	0.0776	-25.63	142016	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2025-01-17	0.061	0.0784	-24.06	81603	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-01-10	0.073	0.0784	-9.56	195678	Downward Expansion	-56	49
2025-01-03	0.0615	0.0783	-23.67	159157	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2024-12-27	0.068	0.0788	-16.36	194045	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2024-12-20	0.073	0.0791	-8.43	329579	Deceleration	-15	12
2024-12-13	0.073	0.079	-11.09	370605	Deceleration	-27	20
2024-12-06	0.08	0.0792	-4.38	722332	Rotation Down	-18	22
2024-11-29	0.074	0.0792	-12.10	818234	Rotation Down	-23	45
2024-11-22	0.067	0.0792	-20.51	771294	Deceleration	-31	48
2024-11-15	0.069	0.0795	-17.60	769167	Deceleration	-29	37
2024-11-08	0.07	0.0798	-17.23	1194487	Deceleration	-17	25
2024-11-01	0.078	0.0803	-6.70	774619	Upward Expansion	22	13
2024-10-25	0.072	0.0807	-15.30	3533814	Upward Expansion	36	40
2024-10-18	0.098	0.0811	13.29	448653	Upward Expansion	63	78
2024-10-11	0.099	0.0803	14.88	1942391	Upward Expansion	70	79
2024-10-04	0.11	0.0793	28.18	2554936	Upward Expansion	89	81
2024-09-27	0.088	0.0781	1.61	1275621	Balance	67	38
2024-09-20	0.081	0.0772	-7.27	1021128	Balance	37	16
2024-09-13	0.077	0.0765	-11.30	1327117	Balance	32	16
2024-09-06	0.079	0.0762	-8.71	364095	Balance	49	29
2024-08-30	0.082	0.0762	-7.41	1437446	Balance	51	36
2024-08-23	0.083	0.0761	-6.65	1305712	Balance	54	38
2024-08-16	0.078	0.076	-12.57	985068	Balance	44	23
2024-08-09	0.08	0.0761	-8.56	365009	Balance	47	26
2024-08-02	0.083	0.0761	-7.49	904405	Balance	54	31
2024-07-26	0.075	0.0761	-16.43	575732	Balance	3	8
2024-07-19	0.076	0.0763	-16.05	122498	Balance	7	14
2024-07-12	0.079	0.0762	-12.82	263722	Balance	6	7
2024-07-05	0.082	0.0762	-8.28	295375	Balance	-8	5
2024-06-28	0.082	0.0763	-8.05	1515561	Balance	-32	22
2024-06-21	0.062	0.0764	-30.91	659534	Balance	-65	50
2024-06-14	0.07	0.077	-21.83	7157	Balance	-51	31
2024-06-07	0.075	0.0777	-18.13	292310	Balance	-31	16
2024-05-31	0.079	0.0784	-12.34	751520	Balance	-23	11
2024-05-24	0.068	0.0787	-25.00	696827	Balance	-44	23
2024-05-17	0.08	0.0795	-13.18	989135	Balance	-24	12
2024-05-10	0.0808	0.0801	-11.85	719770	Balance	-22	14
2024-05-03	0.072	0.0808	-20.43	319986	Balance	-34	14
2024-04-26	0.078	0.0817	-13.61	491542	Balance	-6	16
2024-04-19	0.0765	0.0828	-15.49	117435	Downward Expansion	-4	22
2024-04-12	0.087	0.0835	-6.98	437656	Downward Expansion	25	33
2024-04-05	0.089	0.0839	-4.80	690165	Downward Expansion	1	19
2024-03-29	0.085	0.0851	-10.66	770356	Downward Expansion	-15	17
2024-03-22	0.072	0.0864	-23.31	252621	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-03-15	0.07	0.0879	-24.80	2774768	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-03-08	0.075	0.0886	-21.60	2807470	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2024-03-01	0.06	0.0892	-36.77	561509	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2024-02-23	0.059	0.0902	-37.51	1384009	Downward Expansion	-93	94
2024-02-16	0.07	0.0909	-26.53	289100	Downward Expansion	-80	68
2024-02-09	0.077	0.0912	-19.51	462105	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2024-02-02	0.079	0.0916	-18.34	808248	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2024-01-26	0.082	0.0921	-13.86	138226	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2024-01-19	0.08	0.0923	-14.56	20419	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-01-12	0.079	0.0925	-16.74	275315	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2024-01-05	0.085	0.0928	-10.82	1275075	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2023-12-29	0.079	0.0928	-18.69	196064	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2023-12-22	0.074	0.093	-23.61	1232856	Rotation Down	-78	75
2023-12-15	0.08	0.0934	-17.37	1430260	Rotation Down	-43	61
2023-12-08	0.085	0.0937	-9.80	960481	Rotation Down	-34	49
2023-12-01	0.085	0.0938	-8.71	200009	Rotation Down	-25	42
2023-11-24	0.08	0.0939	-14.24	1548739	Deceleration	-35	49
2023-11-17	0.091	0.0943	-3.00	107280	Deceleration	-15	18
2023-11-10	0.096	0.0944	3.43	1011759	Deceleration	-10	15
2023-11-03	0.087	0.0941	-6.25	81552	Deceleration	-18	20
2023-10-27	0.092	0.0942	1.19	70770	Deceleration	16	15
2023-10-20	0.099	0.0942	7.69	1606037	Deceleration	31	17
2023-10-13	0.099	0.0937	5.52	1605664	Deceleration	33	19

Price vs TrendBelow-23.1%

Trend directionFalling-16.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-50.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-36.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+6.8%

Price momentumNegative-38.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.21×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-64.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

77 /100

+52.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

KKO Directional State ↗ KKO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion25

Deceleration41

Rotation Down79

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 7%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-10-02	Extended	-40.0%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-13	Developing	-18.9%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2026-01-09	Developing	+42.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-11-21	Developing	-25.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-19	Developing	-19.2%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	+2.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-07-18	Extended	+2.9%
Deceleration	2024-12-13	2024-12-20	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2024-11-29	2024-12-06	New	+8.1%
Deceleration	2024-11-08	2024-11-22	New	-4.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	-29.1%
Balance	2024-04-26	2024-09-27	Established	+12.8%
Downward Expansion	2023-12-29	2024-04-19	Established	-3.2%
Rotation Down	2023-12-01	2023-12-22	New	-12.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution2

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -36.38
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -38.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -40.1%
Energy regime cohort: 49th percentile49 in cohort

Test KKO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.21×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore KKO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.0355falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.0398falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.0429-23.1% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.0673-50.9% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.031shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +9.0%

Annualized volatility +57.0%

From structural high -60.2%

From structural low +6.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	38	+0.0%-28.8% to +72.4%	+44.7%	+47.4%	+0.1%	+84.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	-1.0%-21.2% to +47.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.4%	+64.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-1.2%-29.6% to +44.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.7%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-7.4%-41.5% to +63.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-16.0%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

KKO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map