Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Basic Materials

JCTC Stage Analysis

Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 2.91Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 47/100lifecycle context

Confidence 70/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -23.9%USD 3.82 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.91	2.40	8.97	37759	Deceleration	42	31
2026-10-02	2.95	2.36	9.51	38201	Deceleration	46	35
2026-09-25	2.91	2.32	7.68	39599	Upward Expansion	54	37
2026-09-18	2.93	2.28	10.86	50205	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-09-11	2.93	2.24	10.68	42557	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-09-04	2.93	2.21	8.99	59343	Upward Expansion	63	52
2026-08-28	2.96	2.18	9.24	38141	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-08-21	2.94	2.14	7.74	336170	Upward Expansion	66	56
2026-08-14	2.91	2.11	2.60	80080	Upward Expansion	67	59
2026-08-07	3.14	2.08	10.53	130868	Upward Expansion	84	79
2026-07-31	2.65	2.05	-3.06	50546	Upward Expansion	65	69
2026-07-24	2.55	2.04	-7.41	75646	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-07-17	2.77	2.03	-2.11	99534	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-07-10	2.52	2.01	-15.56	158242	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-07-03	2.56	2.01	-13.99	111890	Rotation Up	77	58
2026-06-26	2.20	1.99	-26.50	109980	Rotation Up	32	22
2026-06-19	2.12	2.00	-33.49	131773	Rotation Up	27	21
2026-06-12	2.08	2.01	-34.13	103170	Rotation Up	17	21
2026-06-05	1.99	2.03	-36.87	112262	Rotation Up	16	22
2026-05-29	2.18	2.05	-35.01	307646	Balance	28	29
2026-05-22	2.13	2.08	-36.01	75464	Balance	9	19
2026-05-15	1.91	2.11	-42.97	236752	Balance	-11	16
2026-05-08	1.99	2.16	-41.78	193473	Downward Expansion	-9	18
2026-05-01	2.00	2.21	-39.54	157477	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2026-04-24	1.93	2.26	-42.07	30358	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2026-04-17	1.95	2.31	-41.25	148651	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2026-04-10	1.70	2.37	-46.70	76344	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2026-04-03	1.69	2.43	-45.72	34906	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2026-03-27	1.65	2.49	-46.27	36061	Downward Expansion	-71	56
2026-03-20	1.80	2.56	-44.63	44641	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2026-03-13	1.75	2.63	-48.31	31288	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2026-03-06	1.77	2.70	-49.26	42881	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2026-02-27	1.86	2.76	-48.38	152184	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2026-02-20	1.78	2.82	-51.67	100191	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2026-02-13	1.91	2.88	-48.59	126020	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2026-02-06	1.95	2.93	-48.99	299032	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2026-01-30	1.91	2.99	-51.91	39009	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2026-01-23	2.02	3.05	-50.07	330587	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2026-01-16	1.81	3.11	-55.87	131370	Downward Expansion	-80	60
2026-01-09	2.40	3.17	-42.95	92845	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2026-01-02	2.38	3.22	-43.20	52389	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-12-26	2.32	3.26	-46.21	112750	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-12-19	2.05	3.32	-52.57	189190	Downward Expansion	-81	72
2025-12-12	2.40	3.37	-45.07	108374	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2025-12-05	2.06	3.41	-54.36	217804	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2025-11-28	2.46	3.47	-45.83	26794	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2025-11-21	2.48	3.52	-43.36	13956	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-11-14	2.57	3.57	-43.73	104593	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2025-11-07	2.68	3.61	-42.02	59423	Downward Expansion	-92	92
2025-10-31	2.98	3.64	-38.09	35206	Downward Expansion	-85	79
2025-10-24	3.23	3.68	-32.28	25982	Downward Expansion	-74	62
2025-10-17	3.39	3.73	-28.02	45281	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2025-10-10	3.47	3.76	-25.11	43207	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-10-03	3.50	3.79	-26.89	29715	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-09-26	3.48	3.82	-27.21	132111	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-09-19	3.53	3.86	-27.25	99654	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2025-09-12	3.62	3.90	-24.57	37425	Downward Expansion	-48	24
2025-09-05	3.62	3.93	-23.69	85166	Downward Expansion	-37	16
2025-08-29	3.61	3.97	-23.92	38416	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2025-08-22	3.86	4.00	-19.62	29052	Downward Expansion	-25	18
2025-08-15	3.77	4.02	-22.54	74481	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-08-08	3.81	4.05	-21.79	144825	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-08-01	3.61	4.08	-23.56	20341	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-07-25	3.40	4.11	-30.02	64168	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2025-07-18	3.51	4.15	-27.73	196318	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2025-07-11	3.74	4.19	-22.56	43438	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2025-07-04	3.70	4.23	-24.14	32582	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2025-06-27	3.76	4.26	-22.29	15887	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-06-20	3.81	4.28	-18.66	5004	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-06-13	3.76	4.30	-20.24	15130	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2025-06-06	3.76	4.31	-21.28	21178	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-05-30	3.84	4.32	-18.86	2550	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-05-23	3.74	4.34	-20.20	19218	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-05-16	3.62	4.36	-25.27	52159	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2025-05-09	3.90	4.38	-14.85	20758	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-05-02	3.96	4.41	-14.36	92028	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2025-04-25	3.91	4.45	-13.33	46595	Downward Expansion	-57	62
2025-04-18	3.73	4.48	-12.77	37632	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2025-04-11	3.67	4.52	-16.78	143007	Balance	-70	53
2025-04-04	4.20	4.55	1.38	28993	Balance	-44	33
2025-03-28	4.60	4.56	-0.36	29207	Balance	-31	20
2025-03-21	4.40	4.56	-7.33	21694	Balance	-37	23
2025-03-14	4.24	4.56	-11.10	56012	Balance	-22	16
2025-03-07	4.41	4.56	-10.34	17533	Balance	20	9
2025-02-28	4.62	4.55	-9.68	9862	Balance	40	18
2025-02-21	4.87	4.53	-8.55	79802	Balance	47	22
2025-02-14	4.43	4.52	-19.09	41816	Balance	23	9
2025-02-07	4.79	4.52	-10.83	20479	Balance	45	19
2025-01-31	4.59	4.52	-14.87	22975	Balance	28	11
2025-01-24	4.60	4.53	-16.48	39569	Balance	29	12
2025-01-17	4.52	4.53	-17.25	74713	Balance	30	13
2025-01-10	4.72	4.55	-11.74	22336	Balance	22	15
2025-01-03	4.52	4.57	-18.24	37021	Rotation Up	17	16
2024-12-27	4.64	4.60	-17.52	37618	Rotation Up	23	25
2024-12-20	4.80	4.63	-14.57	16632	Downward Expansion	11	21
2024-12-13	4.69	4.65	-18.90	17535	Downward Expansion	-15	16
2024-12-06	4.82	4.67	-16.74	80987	Downward Expansion	-16	10
2024-11-29	4.28	4.68	-24.21	27003	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2024-11-22	4.36	4.72	-22.78	79934	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2024-11-15	4.13	4.76	-25.93	22813	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2024-11-08	4.13	4.79	-28.98	59151	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2024-11-01	4.26	4.84	-23.32	26011	Downward Expansion	-52	45
2024-10-25	4.33	4.88	-23.79	38888	Balance	-45	25
2024-10-18	4.32	4.91	-24.43	38179	Balance	-29	17
2024-10-11	4.89	4.95	-14.92	33485	Balance	-2	21
2024-10-04	4.94	4.96	-13.39	9058	Balance	-0	17
2024-09-27	4.92	4.98	-14.04	48296	Downward Expansion	-13	17
2024-09-20	4.94	4.99	-13.22	46322	Downward Expansion	-19	18
2024-09-13	4.53	5.00	-19.61	38468	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-09-06	4.51	5.04	-15.65	5212	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-08-30	4.61	5.06	-19.09	9242	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-08-23	4.35	5.09	-24.54	10744	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-08-16	4.27	5.11	-25.57	13268	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-08-09	4.08	5.15	-25.39	24741	Downward Expansion	-77	80
2024-08-02	4.10	5.21	-25.36	64939	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2024-07-26	4.56	5.27	-20.17	25440	Downward Expansion	-68	73
2024-07-19	4.48	5.30	-24.18	40511	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2024-07-12	4.69	5.32	-24.07	28876	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-07-05	4.80	5.35	-22.65	20074	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2024-06-28	4.85	5.36	-19.32	7154	Balance	-64	51
2024-06-21	5.05	5.37	-16.28	24634	Balance	-55	31
2024-06-14	5.35	5.36	-11.43	21803	Balance	16	8
2024-06-07	5.45	5.34	-6.92	44816	Balance	34	15
2024-05-31	5.36	5.31	-6.18	13051	Balance	7	5
2024-05-24	5.34	5.29	-8.16	17060	Balance	7	3
2024-05-17	5.41	5.26	-6.05	96751	Balance	21	8
2024-05-10	5.17	5.24	-8.47	14168	Balance	6	7
2024-05-03	5.49	5.22	-1.75	43397	Balance	36	16
2024-04-26	5.37	5.19	-3.27	25162	Balance	20	10
2024-04-19	5.10	5.17	-4.86	30391	Balance	10	7
2024-04-12	5.69	5.15	-0.20	15995	Deceleration	59	34
2024-04-05	5.34	5.12	-7.20	5122	Deceleration	32	15
2024-03-29	5.34	5.10	-8.75	1224	Deceleration	23	12
2024-03-22	5.38	5.07	-9.26	7373	Deceleration	24	12
2024-03-15	5.39	5.04	-7.20	4861	Deceleration	33	14
2024-03-08	5.36	5.02	-9.63	4129	Deceleration	33	18
2024-03-01	5.24	5.00	-13.93	11543	Deceleration	32	15
2024-02-23	5.27	5.00	-12.58	8406	Deceleration	34	18
2024-02-16	5.73	5.02	-4.61	2961	Deceleration	49	24
2024-02-09	5.12	4.97	-16.69	14487	Deceleration	34	22
2024-02-02	5.43	4.94	-10.84	8354	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-01-26	5.20	4.90	-14.14	16918	Upward Expansion	59	43
2024-01-19	5.25	4.87	-13.46	63683	Upward Expansion	64	53
2024-01-12	5.99	4.85	0.51	30986	Upward Expansion	87	83
2024-01-05	5.83	4.81	0.12	10813	Upward Expansion	89	91
2023-12-29	5.43	4.78	-10.36	19371	Upward Expansion	77	86
2023-12-22	5.27	4.75	-13.64	28857	Upward Expansion	72	84
2023-12-15	5.46	4.73	-10.54	60752	Upward Expansion	93	91
2023-12-08	5.24	4.70	-11.97	27449	Upward Expansion	86	80
2023-12-01	4.95	4.69	-16.89	67956	Balance	69	54
2023-11-24	4.73	4.68	-20.94	23030	Balance	35	19
2023-11-17	4.77	4.69	-20.32	13398	Balance	-7	5
2023-11-10	4.72	4.70	-20.25	22436	Balance	-27	13
2023-11-03	4.58	4.71	-20.95	13988	Balance	-51	29
2023-10-27	4.61	4.74	-16.02	12968	Balance	-47	21
2023-10-20	4.68	4.78	-17.46	9648	Balance	-32	14

Price vs TrendAbove+21.4%

Trend directionRising+16.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-23.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+12.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+24.5%

Price momentumPositive+71.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.22×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

42 / ±100

-17.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

31 /100

-14.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

JCTC Directional State ↗ JCTC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion61

Deceleration68

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 8%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-1.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-09-25	Developing	+15.5%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-07-03	Developing	+28.6%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-05-29	New	+14.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2026-05-08	Extended	-46.6%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-04-11	Established	-22.2%
Rotation Up	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	-2.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-12-20	Developing	+12.7%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-10-25	New	-12.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-09-27	Established	+2.5%
Balance	2024-04-19	2024-06-28	Developing	-5.0%
Deceleration	2024-02-09	2024-04-12	Developing	+11.1%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-08	2024-02-02	Developing	+3.6%
Balance	2023-08-11	2023-12-01	Established	+1.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing48

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 90/100
Current Relative Strength: 8.97
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +71.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +48.2%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 100th percentile5 in cohort

Test JCTC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.36×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.22×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore JCTC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 2.92falling

Slow Activity USD 2.65rising

Trend Reference USD 2.40+21.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 3.82-23.9% close margin

Structural low USD 1.61shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.5%

Annualized volatility +47.3%

From structural high -16.9%

From structural low +89.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+2.9%-0.4% to +4.7%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+4.0%	+66.7%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	+1.0%+1.0% to +1.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-0.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	-20.2%-20.2% to -20.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-23.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-6.4%-6.4% to -6.4%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-26.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

JCTC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map