Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Cyclical

SHA0 Stage Analysis

Schaeffler AG

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 6.63Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -78−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 75/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +17.3%EUR 5.65 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	6.63	7.98	-19.40	4004396	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-09-18	6.93	8.09	-15.27	5579872	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2026-09-11	7.19	8.20	-12.84	2446063	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2026-09-04	7.43	8.31	-11.26	3899974	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2026-08-28	7.53	8.40	-11.54	561815	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-08-21	7.64	8.47	-8.51	714384	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2026-08-14	7.39	8.60	-12.06	462548	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-08-07	7.14	8.69	-14.23	1322007	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2026-07-31	7.09	8.75	-12.13	3915361	Balance	-66	58
2026-07-24	7.98	8.79	1.45	599318	Balance	-49	35
2026-07-17	8.20	8.78	6.12	665899	Balance	-27	28
2026-07-10	8.35	8.75	7.97	754015	Balance	-22	25
2026-07-03	8.79	8.73	11.50	617812	Balance	18	18
2026-06-26	7.86	8.68	5.17	1188093	Upward Expansion	5	9
2026-06-19	9.05	8.63	20.67	2008235	Upward Expansion	49	46
2026-06-12	9.60	8.53	31.40	934714	Upward Expansion	53	64
2026-06-05	9.71	8.42	34.16	798684	Upward Expansion	54	69
2026-05-29	10.56	8.32	46.07	6948306	Balance	79	70
2026-05-22	9.54	8.19	35.37	4841966	Balance	58	44
2026-05-15	9.59	8.08	43.49	7812137	Balance	59	40
2026-05-08	8.78	7.96	31.42	8095274	Balance	26	25
2026-05-01	8.08	7.86	22.89	3650480	Balance	4	14
2026-04-24	7.82	7.79	21.24	5889847	Rotation Down	-1	7
2026-04-17	8.37	7.71	28.26	5352166	Rotation Down	-15	20
2026-04-10	7.56	7.63	21.83	3875412	Rotation Down	-25	47
2026-04-03	6.94	7.55	16.39	3924825	Rotation Down	-27	45
2026-03-27	6.81	7.50	19.91	6554409	Deceleration	-29	44
2026-03-20	6.46	7.46	14.56	12771869	Deceleration	-18	36
2026-03-13	6.87	7.41	17.37	7817548	Deceleration	1	20
2026-03-06	7.49	7.34	28.38	20673971	Upward Expansion	25	25
2026-02-27	9.99	7.25	61.79	4316175	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-02-20	10.32	7.08	69.95	2788596	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-02-13	10.48	6.90	78.13	3577795	Upward Expansion	71	68
2026-02-06	10.00	6.70	74.68	9504592	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-01-30	9.62	6.52	72.58	10271278	Upward Expansion	68	85
2026-01-23	11.47	6.35	106.45	10045682	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-01-16	10.20	6.11	85.25	8263122	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-01-09	8.83	5.91	63.60	4784246	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-01-02	8.32	5.75	61.12	2445852	Upward Expansion	88	94
2025-12-26	7.64	5.60	51.18	1767557	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-12-19	7.54	5.49	51.20	3359958	Upward Expansion	79	88
2025-12-12	7.49	5.37	52.47	3803173	Upward Expansion	83	66
2025-12-05	7.36	5.25	52.52	5591460	Upward Expansion	85	61
2025-11-28	6.42	5.13	35.64	2633133	Upward Expansion	64	50
2025-11-21	6.01	5.04	31.90	3721299	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-11-14	6.38	4.96	36.11	1654912	Upward Expansion	65	67
2025-11-07	6.56	4.86	42.61	3751357	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-10-31	6.78	4.74	45.98	5654959	Upward Expansion	87	73
2025-10-24	6.32	4.62	35.45	3915467	Upward Expansion	82	68
2025-10-17	5.77	4.53	26.16	2731783	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-10-10	6.05	4.46	30.24	5478637	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-10-03	5.85	4.39	25.33	2560587	Upward Expansion	79	68
2025-09-26	5.54	4.33	22.03	2555424	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-09-19	5.76	4.29	27.71	5779600	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-09-12	5.22	4.24	15.91	3039109	Upward Expansion	66	73
2025-09-05	5.38	4.20	20.27	4905582	Upward Expansion	75	80
2025-08-29	5.70	4.15	25.94	6727089	Upward Expansion	94	76
2025-08-22	5.00	4.09	8.45	2177977	Upward Expansion	78	68
2025-08-15	4.88	4.04	5.59	1879720	Upward Expansion	74	66
2025-08-08	4.68	4.02	1.86	3061243	Upward Expansion	67	75
2025-08-01	4.75	3.98	6.25	3467273	Upward Expansion	70	88
2025-07-25	4.90	3.95	5.57	3688810	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-07-18	4.66	3.92	-0.45	2727200	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-07-11	4.66	3.89	-1.04	3722871	Upward Expansion	87	89
2025-07-04	4.54	3.87	-2.38	3719530	Rotation Up	86	78
2025-06-27	4.21	3.85	-11.05	1551298	Rotation Up	43	49
2025-06-20	4.09	3.84	-11.88	2814551	Rotation Up	28	41
2025-06-13	3.98	3.84	-15.63	1936753	Rotation Up	23	44
2025-06-06	4.03	3.84	-18.17	1606521	Rotation Up	25	42
2025-05-30	4.09	3.83	-16.82	2087814	Balance	27	31
2025-05-23	4.03	3.84	-17.76	5182556	Balance	14	23
2025-05-16	3.89	3.85	-21.88	3581911	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2025-05-09	3.78	3.88	-24.25	3570670	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-05-02	3.67	3.90	-26.02	2453378	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2025-04-25	3.67	3.92	-24.01	4242068	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2025-04-18	3.33	3.94	-28.42	3745106	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-04-11	3.07	3.95	-32.16	10695412	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2025-04-04	3.09	3.98	-33.38	11457327	Balance	-81	71
2025-03-28	3.60	4.01	-29.65	7057379	Balance	-62	38
2025-03-21	3.85	4.03	-26.97	7630824	Balance	-36	15
2025-03-14	3.84	4.04	-28.04	6273843	Balance	-21	15
2025-03-07	3.89	4.05	-28.03	7541855	Balance	4	16
2025-02-28	4.36	4.06	-18.60	4241843	Balance	26	32
2025-02-21	4.29	4.07	-19.57	3626279	Balance	5	11
2025-02-14	4.07	4.08	-25.20	2682275	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2025-02-07	3.79	4.10	-28.71	1945437	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2025-01-31	3.88	4.13	-27.62	3584945	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2025-01-24	3.70	4.17	-30.68	9620913	Downward Expansion	-62	34
2025-01-17	4.07	4.21	-22.58	2764890	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2025-01-10	3.76	4.24	-26.47	2488362	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-01-03	3.84	4.28	-24.26	987580	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2024-12-27	3.84	4.33	-25.14	1370309	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2024-12-20	3.80	4.38	-25.90	8202182	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2024-12-13	4.03	4.43	-23.93	2948222	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2024-12-06	3.98	4.48	-25.13	4953379	Downward Expansion	-55	47
2024-11-29	4.03	4.54	-21.59	3749171	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2024-11-22	3.92	4.58	-23.00	2699277	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-11-15	3.93	4.62	-22.58	2672802	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2024-11-08	3.95	4.66	-22.58	4090718	Downward Expansion	-62	29
2024-11-01	4.12	4.71	-19.84	1790659	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2024-10-25	4.50	4.75	-13.89	1576786	Downward Expansion	-21	28
2024-10-18	4.61	4.77	-12.90	3625994	Downward Expansion	-20	27
2024-10-11	4.43	4.79	-15.50	4526092	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-10-04	4.39	4.82	-15.51	3806111	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2024-09-27	4.16	4.85	-21.86	2892278	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2024-09-20	3.82	4.89	-25.66	2503546	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2024-09-13	3.80	4.94	-26.55	3200569	Downward Expansion	-87	92
2024-09-06	3.92	5.00	-22.99	3019080	Downward Expansion	-86	90
2024-08-30	4.24	5.04	-19.67	1848441	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2024-08-23	4.26	5.07	-18.40	1349677	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2024-08-16	4.22	5.09	-18.17	2407668	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2024-08-09	4.19	5.10	-16.34	4626174	Downward Expansion	-84	88
2024-08-02	4.40	5.12	-12.29	2162994	Downward Expansion	-79	75
2024-07-26	4.59	5.13	-12.45	2333516	Rotation Down	-72	57
2024-07-19	4.75	5.13	-8.50	1480837	Rotation Down	-40	45
2024-07-12	4.87	5.12	-9.28	2537555	Rotation Down	-34	49
2024-07-05	5.07	5.11	-4.36	1644104	Rotation Down	-20	35
2024-06-28	4.86	5.08	-7.28	1430972	Upward Expansion	-27	35
2024-06-21	4.81	5.06	-8.11	2169018	Upward Expansion	-12	22
2024-06-14	4.98	5.05	-4.26	1499643	Upward Expansion	10	11
2024-06-07	5.34	5.03	-0.54	2078596	Upward Expansion	47	30
2024-05-31	5.36	4.99	-0.14	1515872	Upward Expansion	54	46
2024-05-24	5.31	4.95	-2.14	1409255	Upward Expansion	53	39
2024-05-17	5.70	4.91	4.65	2245192	Upward Expansion	69	50
2024-05-10	5.80	4.87	6.21	6568286	Deceleration	74	42
2024-05-03	4.99	4.82	-4.78	2169026	Deceleration	28	16
2024-04-26	5.30	4.81	-0.22	3114814	Deceleration	44	30
2024-04-19	5.18	4.78	-0.53	2274570	Deceleration	39	29
2024-04-12	5.27	4.76	-0.26	2526956	Deceleration	41	32
2024-04-05	5.28	4.73	-1.87	2017458	Deceleration	44	35
2024-03-29	5.24	4.71	-4.59	1563221	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-03-22	5.19	4.68	-4.53	2783046	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-03-15	5.30	4.66	-1.32	4231452	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-03-08	5.30	4.64	-0.87	2409639	Upward Expansion	67	77
2024-03-01	5.47	4.61	2.47	3205934	Upward Expansion	78	90
2024-02-23	5.28	4.59	0.35	2445516	Upward Expansion	69	88
2024-02-16	5.49	4.58	5.79	1880725	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-02-09	5.25	4.56	2.29	3236514	Rotation Up	85	85
2024-02-02	5.01	4.54	-2.59	2137469	Rotation Up	51	66
2024-01-26	4.89	4.52	-5.38	2156977	Rotation Up	46	53
2024-01-19	4.59	4.52	-9.36	2641943	Rotation Up	19	40
2024-01-12	4.73	4.53	-7.70	2373371	Balance	29	41
2024-01-05	4.56	4.54	-10.82	2020847	Balance	11	20
2023-12-29	4.69	4.55	-9.41	1044568	Balance	5	15
2023-12-22	4.57	4.56	-12.03	2527786	Balance	-18	11
2023-12-15	4.37	4.58	-16.57	2918592	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2023-12-08	4.37	4.60	-17.00	1555877	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2023-12-01	4.25	4.62	-18.03	2234417	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2023-11-24	4.31	4.66	-15.28	1254181	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2023-11-17	4.38	4.70	-13.85	2424804	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2023-11-10	4.16	4.74	-14.81	2308662	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2023-11-03	4.24	4.80	-13.46	3404251	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2023-10-27	4.23	4.84	-10.91	1971648	Downward Expansion	-69	45
2023-10-20	4.40	4.88	-8.01	1600742	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2023-10-13	4.36	4.91	-11.33	5479424	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2023-10-06	4.58	4.92	-7.39	1242358	Downward Expansion	-55	37

Price vs TrendBelow-16.9%

Trend directionFalling-9.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+17.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-28.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-24.6%

Price momentumNegative-2.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.14×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-78 / ±100

-16.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

75 /100

+11.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SHA0 Directional State ↗ SHA0 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration39

Rotation Down67

Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-7.1%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-31	Developing	-19.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	-19.1%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	+30.7%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-24	New	+12.6%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	New	-0.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2026-03-06	Extended	+60.7%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	+12.6%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	+1.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-16	Developing	+26.5%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-04-04	Developing	-27.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-02	2025-02-14	Extended	-7.5%
Rotation Down	2024-07-05	2024-07-26	New	-9.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-06-28	Developing	-14.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing23

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.40
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -2.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -16.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 92th percentile38 in cohort

Test SHA0 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.14×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SHA0 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 6.99falling

Slow Activity EUR 7.91falling

Trend Reference EUR 7.98-16.9% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 5.65+17.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 6.49shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.6%

Annualized volatility +48.3%

From structural high -42.9%

From structural low +22.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	27	+0.2%-19.4% to +22.9%	+55.6%	+44.4%	+1.8%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+0.1%-10.4% to +33.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-0.5%-12.7% to +44.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+7.3%-15.2% to +33.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SHA0 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map