Weekly structural research · SHZ · Utilities

200037 Stage Analysis

Shenzhen Nanshan Power Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close HKD 2.21Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 49/100directional strength

Maturity 38/100lifecycle context

Confidence 39/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +15.3%HKD 1.92 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.21	2.31	14.55	484064	Deceleration	-39	49
2026-10-02	2.24	2.30	14.42	756352	Deceleration	-33	38
2026-09-25	2.23	2.30	10.65	861179	Deceleration	-38	37
2026-09-18	2.29	2.29	11.29	1918953	Deceleration	5	13
2026-09-11	2.32	2.28	14.49	2739725	Deceleration	9	14
2026-09-04	2.26	2.27	11.45	288000	Deceleration	2	11
2026-08-28	2.28	2.26	9.12	379800	Deceleration	20	15
2026-08-21	2.30	2.25	8.99	686200	Deceleration	26	19
2026-08-14	2.35	2.23	9.31	499800	Deceleration	28	19
2026-08-07	2.44	2.22	13.77	469400	Deceleration	34	15
2026-07-31	2.33	2.20	14.50	377720	Deceleration	5	16
2026-07-24	2.28	2.19	10.52	547730	Deceleration	2	22
2026-07-17	2.21	2.17	7.60	1135379	Deceleration	10	29
2026-07-10	2.19	2.16	-3.05	745600	Deceleration	12	24
2026-07-03	2.23	2.15	-5.17	402600	Upward Expansion	33	22
2026-06-26	2.21	2.14	-7.44	967858	Upward Expansion	52	42
2026-06-19	2.56	2.13	5.20	5490580	Upward Expansion	67	78
2026-06-12	2.75	2.11	20.66	1367300	Upward Expansion	84	93
2026-06-05	2.62	2.08	12.56	865800	Upward Expansion	78	89
2026-05-29	2.63	2.06	11.01	7523018	Upward Expansion	86	87
2026-05-22	2.50	2.03	5.44	8167170	Upward Expansion	85	76
2026-05-15	2.43	2.01	2.30	10817250	Upward Expansion	83	57
2026-05-08	2.21	1.99	-6.98	1972961	Upward Expansion	64	50
2026-05-01	2.16	1.98	-6.59	2034952	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-04-24	2.17	1.97	-5.52	3451783	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-04-17	2.26	1.96	-1.52	5091720	Upward Expansion	81	58
2026-04-10	2.08	1.95	-5.95	1335000	Upward Expansion	62	50
2026-04-03	2.09	1.95	0.90	6126404	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-03-27	2.22	1.94	3.86	5849141	Upward Expansion	90	91
2026-03-20	2.11	1.93	-2.15	3969112	Upward Expansion	79	87
2026-03-13	2.12	1.93	-4.69	4102008	Upward Expansion	90	91
2026-03-06	2.05	1.92	-7.34	2214371	Upward Expansion	82	84
2026-02-27	2.03	1.91	-10.55	2282140	Upward Expansion	84	82
2026-02-13	1.99	1.91	-10.16	1112417	Upward Expansion	73	72
2026-02-06	1.96	1.90	-10.63	1239738	Upward Expansion	61	61
2026-01-30	1.96	1.90	-12.83	2195689	Deceleration	61	53
2026-01-23	1.95	1.90	-15.07	2024744	Deceleration	55	38
2026-01-16	1.92	1.89	-15.83	2233092	Deceleration	44	17
2026-01-09	1.90	1.89	-16.20	1107400	Deceleration	16	8
2026-01-02	1.88	1.88	-13.97	236889	Deceleration	8	6
2025-12-26	1.89	1.88	-14.49	632589	Deceleration	21	9
2025-12-19	1.89	1.88	-11.98	442040	Deceleration	24	11
2025-12-12	1.90	1.87	-12.78	511928	Deceleration	29	13
2025-12-05	1.90	1.86	-12.57	418845	Deceleration	41	21
2025-11-28	1.89	1.85	-12.41	471018	Deceleration	44	23
2025-11-21	1.88	1.85	-10.37	1465083	Deceleration	44	24
2025-11-14	1.96	1.84	-11.90	3605014	Deceleration	63	37
2025-11-07	1.90	1.83	-16.21	603720	Deceleration	36	21
2025-10-31	1.89	1.83	-16.97	750801	Deceleration	33	19
2025-10-24	1.91	1.82	-15.92	979213	Deceleration	49	24
2025-10-17	1.89	1.82	-13.23	766680	Deceleration	32	17
2025-10-10	1.88	1.82	-18.25	513870	Deceleration	30	18
2025-10-03	1.87	1.81	-20.06	387080	Deceleration	32	21
2025-09-26	1.90	1.81	-17.08	1673391	Deceleration	37	20
2025-09-19	1.86	1.81	-18.26	1721854	Upward Expansion	42	26
2025-09-12	1.88	1.81	-16.86	1845610	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-09-05	1.91	1.81	-13.70	1413831	Upward Expansion	63	66
2025-08-29	1.94	1.80	-13.43	3191314	Upward Expansion	68	73
2025-08-22	1.98	1.80	-8.13	5653460	Upward Expansion	81	75
2025-08-15	1.92	1.79	-7.12	2312998	Upward Expansion	70	57
2025-08-08	1.88	1.79	-5.27	890913	Upward Expansion	63	50
2025-08-01	1.87	1.79	-4.94	1698855	Rotation Up	60	56
2025-07-25	1.86	1.79	-7.23	2035310	Rotation Up	31	49
2025-07-18	1.85	1.79	-5.91	3246110	Rotation Up	21	41
2025-07-11	1.88	1.80	-2.66	4215201	Balance	27	39
2025-07-04	1.88	1.80	-1.09	2902038	Balance	26	22
2025-06-27	1.77	1.81	-5.92	644060	Balance	-13	13
2025-06-20	1.77	1.82	-2.68	910630	Balance	-23	18
2025-06-13	1.80	1.83	-2.36	793696	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2025-06-06	1.76	1.84	-5.29	446178	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-05-30	1.78	1.86	-3.04	2088870	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-23	1.72	1.86	-7.33	1347287	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-05-16	1.68	1.87	-10.05	517170	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2025-05-09	1.68	1.87	-9.72	635590	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-05-02	1.64	1.88	-10.05	724660	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2025-04-25	1.76	1.88	-3.80	482020	Downward Expansion	-58	59
2025-04-18	1.68	1.88	-6.98	288060	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2025-04-11	1.69	1.87	-7.07	1088590	Downward Expansion	-75	59
2025-04-04	1.81	1.86	-5.87	414813	Deceleration	-27	28
2025-03-28	1.78	1.86	-9.74	357317	Deceleration	-33	27
2025-03-21	1.82	1.85	-8.65	865410	Deceleration	-26	23
2025-03-14	1.81	1.84	-11.68	686276	Deceleration	-26	22
2025-03-07	1.80	1.83	-11.25	399944	Deceleration	-11	16
2025-02-28	1.79	1.83	-10.00	1081250	Deceleration	-15	18
2025-02-21	1.85	1.83	-10.35	1100782	Rotation Down	1	14
2025-02-14	1.85	1.82	-8.55	946834	Rotation Down	-22	42
2025-02-07	1.81	1.82	-9.29	457660	Rotation Down	-25	50
2025-01-31	1.79	1.81	-6.97	43900	Deceleration	-25	37
2025-01-24	1.77	1.81	-9.44	452120	Deceleration	-11	30
2025-01-17	1.81	1.81	-6.47	602210	Deceleration	-4	22
2025-01-10	1.83	1.81	-2.07	430830	Deceleration	14	22
2025-01-03	1.84	1.81	-2.62	1422710	Deceleration	27	21
2024-12-27	2.00	1.81	-1.73	964791	Upward Expansion	45	35
2024-12-20	2.03	1.80	-0.13	1219130	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-12-13	2.08	1.79	1.67	1029300	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-12-06	2.07	1.78	0.53	2178275	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-11-29	2.15	1.77	6.29	3250000	Upward Expansion	76	87
2024-11-22	2.13	1.76	7.31	2590520	Upward Expansion	80	90
2024-11-15	2.06	1.75	1.08	2634703	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-11-08	2.15	1.74	1.75	7017314	Rotation Up	93	92
2024-11-01	1.91	1.73	-3.33	4516245	Rotation Up	39	69
2024-10-25	1.92	1.73	-4.38	2919151	Rotation Up	45	59
2024-10-18	1.83	1.72	-6.65	1224850	Downward Expansion	35	44
2024-10-11	1.81	1.72	-5.04	3471120	Downward Expansion	2	22
2024-10-04	1.75	1.72	-12.40	1120430	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2024-09-27	1.67	1.72	-7.80	1350908	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2024-09-20	1.52	1.72	-1.38	156800	Downward Expansion	-70	86
2024-09-13	1.50	1.73	-1.72	108630	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2024-09-06	1.54	1.74	-1.08	374369	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-08-30	1.55	1.74	-3.26	695079	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2024-08-23	1.56	1.75	-0.92	828930	Downward Expansion	-82	69
2024-08-16	1.66	1.75	3.09	771600	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2024-08-09	1.70	1.76	4.94	230814	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2024-08-02	1.70	1.76	2.91	568006	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2024-07-26	1.71	1.76	2.82	618800	Balance	-57	52
2024-07-19	1.70	1.76	-1.44	803610	Balance	-31	41
2024-07-12	1.70	1.77	-1.16	990000	Balance	-21	26
2024-07-05	1.74	1.77	2.77	1000300	Balance	-10	12
2024-06-28	1.74	1.77	0.80	1011631	Balance	7	4
2024-06-21	1.77	1.77	-0.02	1135300	Balance	25	13
2024-06-14	1.81	1.77	-0.07	1368600	Balance	43	18
2024-06-07	1.77	1.77	-2.46	4242773	Balance	24	9
2024-05-31	1.83	1.77	-0.45	1537270	Balance	46	19
2024-05-24	1.74	1.77	-6.02	1170866	Balance	-4	7
2024-05-17	1.75	1.77	-8.42	795880	Balance	0	6
2024-05-10	1.82	1.77	-5.14	1209941	Balance	6	10
2024-05-03	1.75	1.78	-7.52	317600	Balance	-5	6
2024-04-26	1.75	1.79	-6.41	866600	Balance	10	8
2024-04-19	1.73	1.80	-5.78	2253730	Balance	1	10
2024-04-12	1.87	1.81	2.30	2844260	Balance	22	29
2024-04-05	1.87	1.82	-1.12	1127330	Balance	4	13
2024-03-29	1.82	1.83	-2.43	1725146	Balance	-6	6
2024-03-22	1.76	1.84	-7.52	1644106	Balance	-31	14
2024-03-15	1.76	1.86	-8.31	1000770	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-03-08	1.75	1.88	-6.76	1455296	Downward Expansion	-47	25
2024-03-01	1.75	1.90	-7.67	2066469	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2024-02-23	1.74	1.92	-4.79	2669816	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-02-09	1.73	1.94	-2.88	1238150	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-02-02	1.71	1.96	4.95	7490392	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2024-01-26	1.74	1.98	-1.84	2740600	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-01-19	1.77	2.00	-0.59	3560504	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2024-01-12	1.75	2.02	-4.23	694534	Deceleration	-60	47
2024-01-05	1.77	2.04	-4.78	162034	Deceleration	-46	40
2023-12-29	1.78	2.06	-8.73	401287	Downward Expansion	-46	42
2023-12-22	1.73	2.08	-8.75	528610	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2023-12-15	1.81	2.10	-6.57	1389426	Downward Expansion	-49	47
2023-12-08	1.78	2.11	-10.04	735900	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2023-12-01	1.76	2.12	-13.00	612400	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2023-11-24	1.76	2.14	-14.46	377610	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2023-11-17	1.75	2.16	-16.57	467510	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2023-11-10	1.76	2.18	-16.42	1098471	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2023-11-03	1.73	2.20	-17.27	685556	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2023-10-27	1.83	2.22	-12.22	470165	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2023-10-20	1.83	2.24	-10.74	810451	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2023-10-13	1.88	2.26	-13.21	318391	Downward Expansion	-85	89
2023-09-29	1.95	2.28	-10.81	476561	Downward Expansion	-82	85

Price vs TrendBelow-4.1%

Trend directionRising+4.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+15.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+14.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.6%

Price momentumPositive+6.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.18×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-39 / ±100

-47.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

49 /100

+34.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

200037 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration45

Rotation Down61

Downward Expansion60

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 30%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-07-10	2026-10-09	Established	+0.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-07-03	Established	+13.8%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2026-01-30	Established	+3.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-19	Developing	-1.1%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+1.1%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-11	New	+6.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-13	Developing	+6.5%
Deceleration	2025-02-28	2025-04-04	Developing	+1.1%
Rotation Down	2025-02-07	2025-02-21	New	+2.2%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	-2.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2024-12-27	Developing	-2.9%
Rotation Up	2024-10-25	2024-11-08	New	+12.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-02	2024-10-18	Developing	+7.6%
Balance	2024-03-22	2024-07-26	Established	-2.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing72

Stage 3 · Distribution42

Stage 4 · Declining28

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 13/100
Current Relative Strength: 14.55
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +17.9%
Utilities regime cohort: 17th percentile6 in cohort

Test 200037 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.18×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 200037 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 2.24falling

Slow Activity HKD 2.31falling

Trend Reference HKD 2.31-4.1% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 1.92+15.3% close margin

Structural low HKD 2.08shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.1%

Annualized volatility +34.2%

From structural high -22.2%

From structural low +19.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	-0.5%-7.4% to +11.4%	+35.7%	+35.7%	+0.0%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.9%-1.6% to +10.6%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+2.5%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-0.9%-10.8% to +10.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+3.4%-31.5% to +3.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-19.2%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

200037 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map