Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

M3B0 Stage Analysis

Pyramid AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 1.41Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -23−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 40/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -60.8%EUR 3.60 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.41	1.53	-43.86	4338	Balance	-23	17
2026-09-25	1.38	1.58	-46.39	2012	Balance	-33	19
2026-09-18	1.44	1.64	-44.76	5336	Downward Expansion	-24	18
2026-09-11	1.41	1.71	-47.39	46170	Downward Expansion	-32	32
2026-09-04	1.45	1.77	-47.80	6610	Downward Expansion	-48	48
2026-08-28	1.40	1.83	-51.43	17780	Downward Expansion	-52	58
2026-08-21	1.36	1.90	-52.84	3829	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-08-14	1.41	1.97	-52.44	0	Downward Expansion	-54	64
2026-08-07	1.41	2.03	-52.96	2076	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2026-07-31	1.35	2.10	-54.45	1000	Downward Expansion	-75	85
2026-07-24	1.40	2.17	-52.51	5000	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2026-07-17	1.41	2.24	-52.37	2	Downward Expansion	-65	85
2026-07-10	1.34	2.30	-55.79	2150	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2026-07-03	1.38	2.38	-56.38	1	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2026-06-26	1.38	2.47	-55.16	5831	Downward Expansion	-58	79
2026-06-19	1.44	2.56	-54.44	3000	Downward Expansion	-50	54
2026-06-12	1.45	2.65	-54.09	0	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2026-06-05	1.48	2.76	-54.00	0	Downward Expansion	-54	58
2026-05-29	1.44	2.85	-56.44	160773	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-05-22	1.40	2.94	-57.89	7041	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-05-15	1.38	3.02	-57.46	25472	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2026-05-08	1.37	3.11	-59.02	139063	Downward Expansion	-72	82
2026-05-01	1.36	3.18	-59.85	104663	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2026-04-24	1.49	3.26	-56.46	60329	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2026-04-17	1.53	3.32	-56.93	17196	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-04-10	1.49	3.39	-57.06	11949	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2026-04-03	1.43	3.46	-58.33	47683	Downward Expansion	-94	96
2026-03-27	1.80	3.53	-46.08	14366	Downward Expansion	-93	87
2026-03-20	2.95	3.59	-12.45	5081	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2026-03-13	2.90	3.61	-17.60	5068	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2026-03-06	3.05	3.63	-13.98	6405	Downward Expansion	-67	55
2026-02-27	3.20	3.64	-15.61	7066	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2026-02-20	3.32	3.65	-12.35	1097	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-02-13	3.23	3.66	-13.51	8769	Downward Expansion	-61	39
2026-02-06	3.40	3.67	-8.39	20599	Deceleration	-26	24
2026-01-30	3.42	3.67	-7.21	72876	Rotation Down	-26	27
2026-01-23	3.36	3.69	-10.14	4832	Rotation Down	-23	36
2026-01-16	3.46	3.69	-9.20	2240	Rotation Down	-20	39
2026-01-09	3.44	3.69	-9.79	4520	Balance	-18	32
2026-01-02	3.44	3.69	-7.64	16362	Balance	-19	26
2025-12-26	3.38	3.70	-8.93	4780	Balance	-21	24
2025-12-19	3.38	3.71	-9.28	28868	Balance	8	14
2025-12-12	3.68	3.72	-1.58	9089	Upward Expansion	27	15
2025-12-05	4.06	3.72	9.09	15248	Upward Expansion	53	34
2025-11-28	4.10	3.72	10.95	19289	Upward Expansion	58	47
2025-11-21	4.17	3.72	16.19	2629	Upward Expansion	61	66
2025-11-14	4.59	3.70	23.51	5413	Upward Expansion	76	74
2025-11-07	4.32	3.66	17.51	42639	Upward Expansion	72	70
2025-10-31	4.24	3.63	13.15	12491	Balance	72	63
2025-10-24	3.78	3.59	-0.59	10781	Balance	42	35
2025-10-17	3.98	3.57	5.83	63335	Balance	53	36
2025-10-10	3.53	3.53	-8.46	2140	Balance	-11	10
2025-10-03	3.60	3.50	-8.13	2520	Balance	12	7
2025-09-26	3.39	3.47	-12.28	1090	Balance	-7	7
2025-09-19	3.56	3.45	-8.19	2788	Balance	28	12
2025-09-12	3.56	3.43	-8.98	1409	Balance	28	13
2025-09-05	3.56	3.42	-9.17	4005	Balance	26	12
2025-08-29	3.56	3.40	-11.01	3532	Deceleration	16	8
2025-08-22	3.56	3.38	-13.25	1888	Deceleration	15	9
2025-08-15	3.52	3.37	-14.98	7973	Deceleration	14	10
2025-08-08	3.50	3.37	-15.75	16143	Deceleration	16	11
2025-08-01	3.45	3.37	-15.17	3739	Deceleration	15	10
2025-07-25	3.56	3.38	-16.12	784	Deceleration	33	18
2025-07-18	3.52	3.39	-18.11	1327	Deceleration	33	17
2025-07-11	3.58	3.40	-17.66	1303	Deceleration	33	16
2025-07-04	3.80	3.39	-11.65	9920	Deceleration	44	20
2025-06-27	3.52	3.38	-19.59	35691	Deceleration	30	19
2025-06-20	3.42	3.39	-20.17	15289	Deceleration	33	19
2025-06-13	3.52	3.40	-19.19	13458	Rotation Up	38	21
2025-06-06	3.65	3.42	-19.63	7698	Rotation Up	16	19
2025-05-30	3.71	3.43	-17.81	10822	Rotation Up	29	30
2025-05-23	3.62	3.44	-19.13	4095	Rotation Up	34	52
2025-05-16	3.73	3.45	-17.92	13739	Rotation Up	26	57
2025-05-09	3.88	3.47	-14.24	2509	Rotation Up	30	57
2025-05-02	4.16	3.50	-7.05	24245	Balance	45	50
2025-04-25	3.68	3.52	-15.21	14331	Balance	9	24
2025-04-18	3.46	3.53	-17.07	6816	Downward Expansion	-11	21
2025-04-11	3.26	3.54	-19.34	7106	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-04-04	3.14	3.56	-23.80	7277	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2025-03-28	3.20	3.59	-29.34	18534	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-03-21	2.72	3.61	-41.73	353	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2025-03-14	2.72	3.66	-42.74	6670	Downward Expansion	-68	59
2025-03-07	2.70	3.71	-44.02	21561	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2025-02-28	2.82	3.76	-41.34	7575	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2025-02-21	2.96	3.81	-38.82	6998	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-02-14	3.10	3.86	-37.40	24334	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2025-02-07	2.88	3.91	-40.70	10928	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2025-01-31	3.18	3.96	-35.23	8832	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2025-01-24	3.22	4.00	-34.22	11640	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2025-01-17	3.38	4.03	-30.26	27373	Downward Expansion	-65	38
2025-01-10	3.62	4.05	-23.87	3433	Downward Expansion	-54	29
2025-01-03	3.72	4.07	-21.62	5146	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-12-27	3.72	4.08	-22.94	2080	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-12-20	3.82	4.10	-21.48	15285	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2024-12-13	3.42	4.12	-32.23	23178	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2024-12-06	3.60	4.15	-29.50	1339	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-11-29	3.78	4.17	-24.04	6683	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-11-22	3.72	4.19	-25.06	4066	Balance	-65	53
2024-11-15	4.00	4.21	-19.96	5813	Balance	-50	33
2024-11-08	3.96	4.23	-21.72	4669	Balance	-42	26
2024-11-01	4.04	4.24	-21.31	1125	Balance	-26	10
2024-10-25	3.98	4.26	-24.18	2365	Balance	-3	16
2024-10-18	4.32	4.29	-19.56	2715	Rotation Up	11	22
2024-10-11	4.60	4.30	-13.99	1503	Rotation Up	17	20
2024-10-04	4.96	4.31	-6.90	16368	Rotation Up	-5	5
2024-09-27	3.94	4.32	-28.19	11597	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2024-09-20	3.80	4.39	-28.92	17376	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-09-13	3.84	4.42	-29.02	4381	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-09-06	3.96	4.46	-26.15	1562	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2024-08-30	3.88	4.49	-30.73	11389	Balance	-68	47
2024-08-23	4.20	4.53	-24.76	1061	Balance	-40	26
2024-08-16	4.32	4.57	-22.19	3240	Balance	-34	21
2024-08-09	4.20	4.61	-22.60	2953	Balance	-30	15
2024-08-02	4.20	4.66	-23.15	5632	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-07-26	4.36	4.71	-24.22	4025	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2024-07-19	4.60	4.76	-19.92	5589	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2024-07-12	4.48	4.79	-25.43	6070	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-07-05	4.24	4.83	-29.58	4591	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-06-28	4.12	4.88	-32.06	5942	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2024-06-21	4.12	4.94	-33.03	156	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-06-14	4.12	4.99	-33.70	3329	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2024-06-07	4.20	5.05	-35.58	5576	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2024-05-31	4.24	5.11	-35.99	9170	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2024-05-24	4.28	5.15	-37.17	975	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-05-17	4.32	5.20	-37.78	6366	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2024-05-10	4.40	5.24	-37.90	325	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-05-03	4.44	5.28	-35.72	4955	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-04-26	4.32	5.34	-39.05	5372	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2024-04-19	4.36	5.41	-37.96	9838	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2024-04-12	4.28	5.47	-40.54	28323	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2024-04-05	4.64	5.53	-37.07	7538	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-03-29	4.84	5.58	-36.05	5125	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-03-22	4.74	5.62	-36.89	8215	Downward Expansion	-64	32
2024-03-15	4.90	5.67	-34.33	11991	Downward Expansion	-51	24
2024-03-08	5.40	5.72	-27.83	4437	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2024-03-01	5.80	5.75	-22.67	19872	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-02-23	4.94	5.77	-33.46	7673	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-02-16	4.98	5.84	-32.47	2942	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2024-02-09	4.88	5.93	-33.75	14070	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2024-02-02	5.02	6.05	-32.51	6203	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2024-01-26	5.24	6.18	-30.46	786	Downward Expansion	-64	36
2024-01-19	5.58	6.30	-24.93	7668	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2024-01-12	5.76	6.41	-23.89	4468	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2024-01-05	5.80	6.52	-23.50	7747	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2023-12-29	5.82	6.63	-24.64	7740	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2023-12-22	5.52	6.74	-29.04	27060	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2023-12-15	5.58	6.86	-29.21	16021	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2023-12-08	5.64	6.98	-29.33	7728	Downward Expansion	-48	31
2023-12-01	6.00	7.09	-23.82	10472	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2023-11-24	5.78	7.20	-25.54	3169	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2023-11-17	5.92	7.30	-23.74	1750	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2023-11-10	5.80	7.37	-22.47	5175	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2023-11-03	5.60	7.42	-25.44	2441	Downward Expansion	-67	80
2023-10-27	5.68	7.47	-22.34	1805	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2023-10-20	5.44	7.50	-26.67	29899	Downward Expansion	-74	59
2023-10-13	5.66	7.54	-26.35	6393	Downward Expansion	-72	53

Price vs TrendBelow-7.7%

Trend directionFalling-29.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-60.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-43.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.5%

Price momentumNegative-1.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.60×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-23 / ±100

+24.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

17 /100

-31.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

M3B0 Directional State ↗ M3B0 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance66

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration53

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion42

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 4%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 64%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	+2.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-09-18	Extended	-55.4%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-02-06	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-01-16	2026-01-30	New	-1.2%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-01-09	New	+1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-07	2025-12-12	Developing	-14.8%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-10-31	Developing	+19.1%
Deceleration	2025-06-20	2025-08-29	Developing	+4.0%
Rotation Up	2025-05-09	2025-06-13	Developing	-9.3%
Balance	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+13.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-04-18	Established	-8.6%
Balance	2024-10-25	2024-11-22	Developing	-6.5%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-10-18	New	-12.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-09-27	New	-0.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing69

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution4

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -43.86
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -1.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.0%
Financial Services regime cohort: 62th percentile8 in cohort

Test M3B0 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.32×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.60×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore M3B0 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 1.41stable

Slow Activity EUR 1.42falling

Trend Reference EUR 1.53-7.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 3.60-60.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 1.23shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +24.3%

From structural high -71.8%

From structural low +14.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-1.4%-11.2% to +17.8%	+43.8%	+43.8%	-2.7%	+43.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-5.7%-27.3% to +16.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-8.2%	+22.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-14.7%-60.6% to +19.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-12.8%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-29.5%-59.3% to -16.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-44.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

M3B0 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map