Weekly structural research ยท SHZ ยท Communication Services

300805 Stage Analysis

Guangdong Brandmax Marketing Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 8.67Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -6โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 9/100directional strength
Maturity 16/100lifecycle context
Confidence 58/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -9.6%CNY 9.60 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-028.678.98-7.9541804700Balance-69
2026-09-258.659.10-11.6442544252Deceleration-1010
2026-09-188.309.25-17.9228653310Deceleration-2112
2026-09-118.259.43-18.1536855835Downward Expansion-2417
2026-09-048.569.62-16.0357658183Downward Expansion-3420
2026-08-288.259.86-22.169845600Downward Expansion-4026
2026-08-217.8910.01-27.045725701Downward Expansion-4429
2026-08-148.3610.16-24.9210642500Downward Expansion-4333
2026-08-078.3210.27-25.8613326800Downward Expansion-4637
2026-07-318.2410.35-23.5130239900Downward Expansion-5248
2026-07-247.4810.42-32.1920753900Downward Expansion-7164
2026-07-178.1810.52-26.3149831998Downward Expansion-6765
2026-07-107.4610.60-39.4110618000Downward Expansion-7288
2026-07-037.5310.74-41.727240882Downward Expansion-7490
2026-06-267.2610.90-45.166292500Downward Expansion-8594
2026-06-197.8711.06-42.2422382840Downward Expansion-8092
2026-06-128.0111.16-37.836074144Downward Expansion-8393
2026-06-058.3811.28-37.078376292Downward Expansion-8492
2026-05-298.6111.38-37.1836264986Downward Expansion-8383
2026-05-229.3411.47-32.7235260222Downward Expansion-7668
2026-05-1510.0211.52-28.4439725799Downward Expansion-6646
2026-05-0810.7811.56-23.6725350278Downward Expansion-4632
2026-05-0110.4011.59-24.7429891855Downward Expansion-5839
2026-04-2410.6011.63-22.9552790484Downward Expansion-6056
2026-04-1710.5811.70-23.4028578070Rotation Down-6262
2026-04-1010.3611.77-22.3335196215Rotation Down-2851
2026-04-039.5011.81-24.0751887736Deceleration-4250
2026-03-2710.9211.88-15.7329610537Deceleration-1729
2026-03-2011.1211.92-15.2131255554Deceleration-1222
2026-03-1311.6111.94-14.5049515602Deceleration2216
2026-03-0612.0811.93-10.8151650990Upward Expansion5133
2026-02-2713.2211.91-4.8556551318Upward Expansion6371
2026-02-1313.6411.840.59158263509Upward Expansion6576
2026-02-0614.1211.765.22240684126Upward Expansion6979
2026-01-3015.6711.6614.20133765571Upward Expansion8980
2026-01-2312.7911.49-8.2353771019Rotation Down4033
2026-01-1612.2111.42-11.77130968591Rotation Down168
2026-01-0911.8311.35-13.9556159246Rotation Down-1234
2026-01-0210.5511.32-20.2121356947Rotation Down-3358
2025-12-2610.3711.31-22.4949006800Balance-3954
2025-12-1910.4911.32-19.4826811300Balance-2629
2025-12-1210.6511.34-20.1037208000Balance98
2025-12-0511.6111.36-12.5643033868Balance3422
2025-11-2812.4311.32-5.31102345364Balance4727
2025-11-2112.0811.26-4.6387232860Balance3816
2025-11-1410.9711.19-17.6935102960Balance57
2025-11-0711.4311.18-15.4940941630Balance1212
2025-10-3111.4811.10-14.8534899350Balance1114
2025-10-2411.3011.05-15.4622358906Balance2120
2025-10-1710.7311.02-15.8627734508Upward Expansion1115
2025-10-1011.3911.02-15.0813042943Upward Expansion3619
2025-10-0311.4411.03-15.6514822200Upward Expansion5032
2025-09-2611.8511.03-10.4575383283Upward Expansion5538
2025-09-1912.7110.99-2.72156489166Upward Expansion6946
2025-09-1212.4610.96-3.27166141886Upward Expansion7050
2025-09-0511.6110.95-7.2151428288Upward Expansion5748
2025-08-2911.6310.94-7.6556901800Upward Expansion5956
2025-08-2212.0910.910.4046954221Rotation Up7670
2025-08-1511.6210.881.3048976050Rotation Up3850
2025-08-0811.3310.873.6246836230Rotation Up2944
2025-08-0111.6410.838.1765344508Balance4147
2025-07-2511.1610.802.1937155890Balance1726
2025-07-1811.0410.853.6631003448Balance1314
2025-07-1111.0911.026.6569744049Balance-84
2025-07-0410.5811.024.0932327500Balance-3014
2025-06-2710.7811.008.0243692998Balance-2814
2025-06-2010.2410.977.1436095500Balance-3819
2025-06-1310.7410.9311.8482792090Balance-178
2025-06-0610.4410.888.8539641249Balance-2817
2025-05-3010.6810.8313.7547352530Balance510
2025-05-2310.8610.7315.3498288439Balance511
2025-05-1611.3110.6620.3995684979Balance910
2025-05-0910.5010.5613.2348648655Rotation Down-98
2025-05-0210.5810.4717.4848195080Rotation Down-2422
2025-04-2510.0210.4011.8478423353Rotation Down-1937
2025-04-1810.5310.3119.8488882901Rotation Down-1839
2025-04-119.1510.184.4848171868Deceleration-3245
2025-04-0410.1010.099.7417820965Deceleration114
2025-03-2810.219.988.8227086960Deceleration87
2025-03-2110.739.8613.7551804780Deceleration2311
2025-03-1411.709.7220.7452896860Deceleration4924
2025-03-0711.499.5620.6454835530Deceleration4826
2025-02-2810.649.4114.8670455928Deceleration4626
2025-02-2111.839.3423.7993875802Deceleration5131
2025-02-1412.229.2031.44150652493Deceleration5631
2025-02-0711.259.0424.2754404535Deceleration3521
2025-01-3110.828.8925.0421543870Deceleration3420
2025-01-2411.188.7427.68100415940Deceleration3621
2025-01-1711.148.5829.04151188522Upward Expansion4228
2025-01-1010.268.4122.98101804172Upward Expansion6151
2025-01-0310.728.2927.04119140295Upward Expansion6463
2024-12-2712.548.1437.68229941436Upward Expansion6781
2024-12-2016.177.9678.12274897158Upward Expansion9795
2024-12-1311.167.6523.47101593798Upward Expansion8374
2024-12-0610.147.5211.5890175878Upward Expansion7570
2024-11-299.777.429.26132295776Upward Expansion7569
2024-11-229.057.332.8997771800Upward Expansion6760
2024-11-159.287.262.3479462522Upward Expansion7874
2024-11-088.747.16-7.2350962664Upward Expansion7271
2024-11-017.907.11-10.7849307100Upward Expansion6062
2024-10-258.647.10-4.0058056840Upward Expansion7172
2024-10-188.367.09-4.7556101621Balance6561
2024-10-117.697.13-9.9274270356Balance2432
2024-10-048.477.14-5.2524723100Balance3830
2024-09-277.417.10-8.3346964000Balance-2913
2024-09-206.647.11-3.2113978000Balance-4835
2024-09-136.487.14-4.5625980866Balance-4529
2024-09-066.747.12-2.4746903484Balance-3826
2024-08-306.737.13-5.0424211100Balance-3724
2024-08-236.477.20-6.7135289788Balance-3615
2024-08-166.887.28-2.6748655280Rotation Up715
2024-08-097.007.42-1.27100641455Rotation Up1223
2024-08-028.547.5218.62157731230Downward Expansion3535
2024-07-267.707.606.92125464640Downward Expansion-1014
2024-07-197.317.68-1.75115781647Downward Expansion-3219
2024-07-126.917.77-6.43121751900Downward Expansion-5739
2024-07-056.187.84-14.7222475500Downward Expansion-6565
2024-06-286.317.95-14.5827884741Downward Expansion-6568
2024-06-216.198.05-18.3721267600Downward Expansion-6863
2024-06-146.558.15-15.7419308000Downward Expansion-5946
2024-06-076.248.22-19.9037848420Downward Expansion-6642
2024-05-317.098.31-10.2034720740Downward Expansion-4230
2024-05-246.968.34-12.5725914420Downward Expansion-5636
2024-05-177.228.37-12.1829139998Downward Expansion-5441
2024-05-107.048.40-14.7630562538Downward Expansion-5859
2024-05-037.148.45-12.5314825200Downward Expansion-5758
2024-04-267.038.48-12.6834187914Downward Expansion-5658
2024-04-196.348.51-19.7547734570Balance-6856
2024-04-127.238.60-7.9840518142Balance-4420
2024-04-057.658.63-5.8838624150Balance-3520
2024-03-298.088.641.1881956961Balance-2917
2024-03-229.578.6318.17111358387Rotation Down88
2024-03-158.078.57-0.0778256887Rotation Down-2320
2024-03-087.378.57-6.0149567050Rotation Down-3044
2024-03-017.658.59-2.8191755192Rotation Down-2346
2024-02-237.598.610.7195615171Rotation Down-2245
2024-02-095.998.65-17.8571131757Deceleration-4142
2024-02-026.958.724.5548498069Deceleration-2123
2024-01-268.718.7621.1865079268Upward Expansion2614
2024-01-199.058.7626.7267171597Upward Expansion5234
2024-01-1210.898.7650.51111644466Upward Expansion6850
2024-01-059.968.7037.7767213607Upward Expansion6054
2023-12-2911.118.6748.78158983314Upward Expansion8068
2023-12-2210.128.5841.85231325986Upward Expansion7160
2023-12-159.858.5537.3058754783Upward Expansion7674
2023-12-089.238.5327.7030583900Rotation Up6063
2023-12-019.448.5429.4257085642Rotation Up4259
2023-11-249.128.5524.4728463536Rotation Up3551
2023-11-179.148.5223.8726311800Balance2836
2023-11-108.918.5121.5333837268Balance413
2023-11-038.728.4921.2544955390Balance-54
2023-10-278.138.5014.8823762078Balance-4322
2023-10-207.798.5112.9618183344Balance-5427
2023-10-138.218.5213.9329133300Balance-3015
2023-09-298.428.5017.0033281035Balance-2816
2023-09-228.078.4812.0751529624Balance-3519
Price vs TrendBelow-3.5%
Trend directionFalling-13.8%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.6%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.9%
Relative strength directionImproving+33.8%
Price momentumNegative-8.7%
Volume balanceDemand-led3.85ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-6 / ยฑ100

+28.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

9 /100

-11.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance57
Rotation Up31
Upward Expansion33
Deceleration44
Rotation Down18
Downward Expansion41

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 23%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-10-022026-10-02New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-09-182026-09-25New+4.2%
Downward Expansion2026-04-242026-09-11Established-22.2%
Rotation Down2026-04-102026-04-17New+2.1%
Deceleration2026-03-132026-04-03New-18.2%
Upward Expansion2026-01-302026-03-06Developing-22.9%
Rotation Down2026-01-022026-01-23New+21.2%
Balance2025-10-242025-12-26Developing-8.2%
Upward Expansion2025-08-292025-10-17Developing-7.7%
Rotation Up2025-08-082025-08-22New+6.7%
Balance2025-05-162025-08-01Developing+2.9%
Rotation Down2025-04-182025-05-09New-0.3%
Deceleration2025-01-242025-04-11Developing-18.1%
Upward Expansion2024-10-252025-01-17Established+28.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing70
Stage 2 ยท Advancing9
Stage 3 ยท Distribution11
Stage 4 ยท Declining91

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
18/100
Current Relative Strength
-7.95
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-8.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-5.3%
Communication Services regime cohort
32th percentile31 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.74ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.85ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution6 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CNY 8.53rising
Slow Activity CNY 8.46falling
Trend Reference CNY 8.98-3.5% close margin
Current Fair Value CNY 9.60-9.6% close margin
Structural low CNY 7.05shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.3%
Annualized volatility +38.2%
From structural high -46.1%
From structural low +23.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs 399001.SZ Regime survived Read
Near term18+2.9%-13.2% to +26.0%+61.1%+61.1%+1.1%+50.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate8+8.0%-22.0% to +40.0%+62.5%+62.5%+4.0%+0.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended7-8.4%-34.9% to +37.9%+28.6%+28.6%-9.6%+42.9%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle4-18.3%-40.3% to +26.3%+25.0%+25.0%-4.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context