Weekly structural research ยท TWO ยท Basic Materials

6959 Stage Analysis

Ion Electronic Materials Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TWD 131.50Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 24โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 24/100directional strength
Maturity 25/100lifecycle context
Confidence 60/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +29.0%TWD 101.95 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25131.50116.842.211029979Balance2424
2026-09-18123.00114.78-2.86876310Deceleration39
2026-09-11116.00112.97-6.76567112Deceleration-1517
2026-09-04109.50111.37-13.11485865Rotation Down-1923
2026-08-28111.00110.25-12.05335763Rotation Down-2043
2026-08-21104.50109.22-15.7021361Deceleration-2751
2026-08-14111.00108.35-12.1650349Deceleration-137
2026-08-07103.00107.00-15.9651575Balance-833
2026-07-31104.50105.82-12.91118033Balance-415
2026-07-24120.00104.58-1.6051483Upward Expansion3116
2026-07-17116.50102.85-2.39151835Upward Expansion3418
2026-07-10132.00101.243.81530442Upward Expansion5130
2026-07-03140.5099.067.03881514Upward Expansion5836
2026-06-26127.0096.581.471267365Upward Expansion5537
2026-06-19144.0094.4810.14930519Upward Expansion6243
2026-06-12136.5091.949.681308129Deceleration5837
2026-06-05141.5089.9310.832642710Deceleration5432
2026-05-29127.5087.800.072393192Upward Expansion4528
2026-05-22120.5086.21-0.771857599Upward Expansion5538
2026-05-15107.5084.92-9.842941588Upward Expansion6150
2026-05-08125.5084.164.042680996Upward Expansion6676
2026-05-01144.5082.6628.184377141Upward Expansion7687
2026-04-24140.5080.4025.1516678051Upward Expansion8491
2026-04-17163.0078.2654.1710336756Upward Expansion9898
2026-04-1090.9075.48-9.70875242Upward Expansion6978
2026-04-0385.5075.07-8.151201683Rotation Up5971
2026-03-2791.9074.83-3.502862127Rotation Up5067
2026-03-2089.5074.37-7.751576916Rotation Up3746
2026-03-1376.8074.00-21.061034134Balance-1712
2026-03-0669.5073.90-29.81220103Balance-4233
2026-02-2769.7073.87-34.14344478Balance-3926
2026-02-1368.9073.88-32.35344162Balance-2714
2026-02-0668.0073.86-30.41708237Rotation Up-617
2026-01-3075.7073.92-24.26548054Rotation Up1327
2026-01-2380.1073.69-20.69606551Downward Expansion1825
2026-01-1678.5073.35-21.74924642Downward Expansion-1013
2026-01-0970.5073.05-27.82541052Downward Expansion-4328
2026-01-0267.5073.13-29.40136839Downward Expansion-5840
2025-12-2667.5073.68-28.19181061Downward Expansion-6044
2025-12-1968.0074.24-26.15206153Downward Expansion-6157
2025-12-1268.2074.96-27.92151029Downward Expansion-6575
2025-12-0566.6075.62-29.74181305Downward Expansion-6676
2025-11-2866.2075.35-30.02337939Balance-6069
2025-11-2163.8075.11-30.29583863Balance-4248
2025-11-1468.0075.02-29.20474571Balance-2224
2025-11-0776.2074.72-22.28333808Upward Expansion3216
2025-10-3177.4074.03-23.43339048Upward Expansion5233
2025-10-2480.0073.85-19.67130548Upward Expansion5651
2025-10-1781.8073.76-17.97307582Upward Expansion6050
2025-10-1084.5073.71-16.10330187Upward Expansion7247
2025-10-0380.7073.62-18.97297067Upward Expansion6335
2025-09-2676.6074.00-20.32486238Rotation Up5232
2025-09-1976.4074.70-21.33575609Rotation Up2939
2025-09-1279.5075.45-18.591637169Rotation Up3652
2025-09-0578.6076.13-16.98465162Balance3246
2025-08-2978.4076.93-17.08551988Balance3232
2025-08-2278.1077.90-16.34515362Balance-916
2025-08-1578.2078.58-18.74710159Balance-139
2025-08-0874.0079.13-22.87159385Downward Expansion-3722
2025-08-0168.5079.76-27.69161874Downward Expansion-5535
2025-07-2570.0080.64-26.80167535Downward Expansion-5446
2025-07-1868.3081.35-29.48173347Downward Expansion-5053
2025-07-1169.9082.19-26.68155584Downward Expansion-4651
2025-07-0468.8083.04-28.00210658Downward Expansion-4737
2025-06-2769.8083.92-27.98494880Downward Expansion-4429
2025-06-2069.5084.93-27.37359587Downward Expansion-3115
2025-06-1372.9086.14-24.66752780Downward Expansion-1724
2025-06-0684.0087.30-12.35266633Downward Expansion-1533
2025-05-3084.3087.96-11.43361459Downward Expansion-1729
2025-05-2389.5088.79-8.00945009Downward Expansion-1922
2025-05-1688.1089.50-10.711237202Downward Expansion-3640
2025-05-0958.4090.30-38.96121837Downward Expansion-7284
2025-05-0259.2091.92-39.0490984Downward Expansion-7288
2025-04-2560.9093.70-35.96156721Downward Expansion-7389
2025-04-1859.0095.35-37.76228438Downward Expansion-8594
2025-04-1155.5096.93-42.94820047Downward Expansion-9798
2025-04-0472.0098.50-33.40246835Downward Expansion-8996
2025-03-2877.3099.88-30.44260398Downward Expansion-8794
2025-03-2180.30100.72-30.30315103Downward Expansion-8789
2025-03-1482.00101.52-28.61649856Downward Expansion-8579
2025-03-0792.00102.54-22.66130760Balance-5737
2025-02-2897.50103.51-20.37168033Balance-2512
2025-02-2199.00104.36-22.05204929Balance-1218
2025-02-14100.00105.29-19.92302706Downward Expansion-2024
2025-02-07102.50106.28-19.64337362Downward Expansion-2223
2025-01-24107.50107.23-16.42497283Downward Expansion-1616
2025-01-1798.50108.16-22.51422859Downward Expansion-4940
2025-01-1094.70โ€”โ€”227647Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0392.90โ€”โ€”96565Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2794.80โ€”โ€”133301Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2091.50โ€”โ€”114190Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1393.30โ€”โ€”155801Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0695.50โ€”โ€”423614Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2995.20โ€”โ€”381599Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-22100.00โ€”โ€”322063Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-15106.00โ€”โ€”71803Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-08107.50โ€”โ€”274094Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-01104.00โ€”โ€”232890Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-25109.00โ€”โ€”158713Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-18111.00โ€”โ€”237657Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-11112.00โ€”โ€”157678Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-04107.00โ€”โ€”249039Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-27112.50โ€”โ€”508787Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-20110.50โ€”โ€”323127Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-13106.50โ€”โ€”262781Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-06102.50โ€”โ€”411634Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-30113.50โ€”โ€”595402Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-23102.30โ€”โ€”382986Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16104.28โ€”โ€”866126Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-09112.68โ€”โ€”605846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-02121.08โ€”โ€”371287Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-26123.06โ€”โ€”260246Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-19127.01โ€”โ€”481703Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-12129.48โ€”โ€”697014Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-05130.97โ€”โ€”743092Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-28135.41โ€”โ€”867334Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-21130.47โ€”โ€”2267839Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-14121.08โ€”โ€”407364Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-07118.61โ€”โ€”403113Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-31119.60โ€”โ€”1287624Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-24123.55โ€”โ€”1343846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-17114.66โ€”โ€”4235290Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-10145.79โ€”โ€”2646775Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-03159.14โ€”โ€”2123493Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-26175.94โ€”โ€”2147920Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-19164.08โ€”โ€”4819559Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-12163.59โ€”โ€”5748082Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-05158.15โ€”โ€”4905468Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-29140.85โ€”โ€”2521787Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-22118.12โ€”โ€”905553Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-15113.18โ€”โ€”479475Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-08115.65โ€”โ€”884607Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-01118.61โ€”โ€”839339Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-23119.60โ€”โ€”1210132Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-16118.12โ€”โ€”787298Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-09114.66โ€”โ€”103493Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-02111.20โ€”โ€”754799Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-26105.27โ€”โ€”550076Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-19104.77โ€”โ€”297969Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-12105.76โ€”โ€”356704Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-05110.70โ€”โ€”279184Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-29115.65โ€”โ€”313384Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-22115.15โ€”โ€”586331Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-15116.63โ€”โ€”871336Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-08119.11โ€”โ€”1447369Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-01114.66โ€”โ€”828655Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-24109.22โ€”โ€”489664Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-17111.20โ€”โ€”676364Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-10110.70โ€”โ€”1236054Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-0392.71โ€”โ€”1513988Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-2798.55โ€”โ€”708624Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-20113.67โ€”โ€”396428Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-13116.63โ€”โ€”300801Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-06119.60โ€”โ€”748720Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-29126.02โ€”โ€”1267582Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-22129.98โ€”โ€”805518Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+12.6%
Trend directionRising+13.6%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+29.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+2.2%
Relative strength directionImproving+0.7%
Price momentumPositive+43.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led2.79ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

24 / ยฑ100

+44.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

24 /100

-18.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance52
Rotation Up56
Upward Expansion33
Deceleration45
Rotation Down17
Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 ยท 87 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 23%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 39%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-09-252026-09-25New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-09-112026-09-18New+6.0%
Rotation Down2026-08-282026-09-04New-1.4%
Deceleration2026-08-142026-08-21New-5.9%
Balance2026-07-312026-08-07New-1.4%
Upward Expansion2026-06-192026-07-24Developing-16.7%
Deceleration2026-06-052026-06-12New-3.5%
Upward Expansion2026-04-102026-05-29Developing+40.3%
Rotation Up2026-03-202026-04-03New-4.5%
Balance2026-02-132026-03-13New+11.5%
Rotation Up2026-01-302026-02-06New-10.2%
Downward Expansion2025-12-052026-01-23Developing+20.3%
Balance2025-11-142025-11-28New-2.6%
Upward Expansion2025-10-032025-11-07Developing-5.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing28
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution43
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
73/100
Current Relative Strength
2.21
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+43.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-1.9%
Basic Materials regime cohort
22th percentile37 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.11ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.79ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TWD 121.83rising
Slow Activity TWD 120.14rising
Trend Reference TWD 116.84+12.6% close margin
Current Fair Value TWD 101.95+29.0% close margin
Structural low TWD 81.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +9.0%
Annualized volatility +103.2%
From structural high -40.4%
From structural low +124.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TWII Regime survived Read
Near term5+1.7%-18.9% to +29.9%+80.0%+80.0%-2.6%+0.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate4-4.1%-13.0% to +74.9%+50.0%+50.0%-11.1%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended3-10.8%-21.1% to +59.3%+33.3%+33.3%-21.3%+66.7%Too little matched history
Full cycle1-29.6%-29.6% to -29.6%+0.0%+0.0%-78.8%+100.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context