Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

GMM Stage Analysis

Grammer AG

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 14.10Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and stable.

Direction 94−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 77/100directional strength

Maturity 68/100lifecycle context

Confidence 59/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widestable separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +72.1%EUR 8.19 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	14.10	9.36	45.73	0	Upward Expansion	94	77
2026-09-18	12.60	9.12	34.19	0	Upward Expansion	83	73
2026-09-11	12.40	8.95	31.31	0	Upward Expansion	87	74
2026-09-04	12.40	8.80	32.75	0	Upward Expansion	93	76
2026-08-28	10.40	8.63	13.22	0	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-08-21	11.20	8.49	24.99	0	Upward Expansion	87	82
2026-08-14	11.00	8.33	21.36	0	Upward Expansion	87	91
2026-08-07	10.60	8.16	18.77	0	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-07-31	10.50	8.01	21.33	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2026-07-24	10.30	7.85	19.31	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-07-17	10.70	7.70	25.95	0	Upward Expansion	99	99
2026-07-10	9.75	7.54	12.97	0	Upward Expansion	95	97
2026-07-03	8.90	7.42	2.01	0	Upward Expansion	76	87
2026-06-26	9.05	7.32	6.14	0	Upward Expansion	87	80
2026-06-19	8.55	7.23	-1.63	0	Upward Expansion	71	60
2026-06-12	8.50	7.15	1.72	0	Upward Expansion	70	59
2026-06-05	8.25	7.07	1.30	0	Upward Expansion	51	52
2026-05-29	8.25	7.00	-0.15	0	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-05-22	8.35	6.95	3.38	0	Upward Expansion	67	63
2026-05-15	8.20	6.88	3.17	0	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-05-08	8.25	6.83	2.89	0	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-05-01	8.35	6.78	5.00	0	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-04-24	8.45	6.72	6.63	0	Upward Expansion	79	89
2026-04-17	8.35	6.65	1.59	685	Upward Expansion	83	86
2026-04-10	8.25	6.58	2.54	0	Deceleration	84	72
2026-04-03	7.60	6.51	0.17	0	Deceleration	61	35
2026-03-27	7.05	6.46	-4.53	0	Deceleration	40	21
2026-03-20	6.60	6.45	-9.82	0	Upward Expansion	39	21
2026-03-13	6.90	6.46	-7.39	0	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-03-06	7.00	6.45	-9.00	0	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-02-27	6.95	6.46	-14.68	0	Rotation Up	65	78
2026-02-20	7.55	6.44	-9.45	0	Rotation Up	47	74
2026-02-13	7.90	6.42	-2.38	0	Rotation Up	60	71
2026-02-06	7.25	6.37	-11.11	3466	Downward Expansion	37	32
2026-01-30	6.25	6.34	-22.79	0	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2026-01-23	6.20	6.35	-22.56	1710	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2026-01-16	5.90	6.35	-25.94	3420	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2026-01-09	6.20	6.37	-21.65	1710	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2026-01-02	5.65	6.39	-28.20	0	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2025-12-26	5.80	6.44	-25.13	0	Downward Expansion	-70	57
2025-12-19	6.00	6.49	-22.59	0	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-12-12	6.00	6.54	-20.91	0	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2025-12-05	6.10	6.60	-19.51	0	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2025-11-28	6.20	6.67	-17.22	0	Balance	-56	51
2025-11-21	6.10	6.70	-15.16	0	Balance	-58	41
2025-11-14	6.30	6.71	-13.79	0	Balance	-49	29
2025-11-07	6.20	6.71	-13.81	0	Balance	-53	25
2025-10-31	6.65	6.72	-9.19	0	Balance	-24	14
2025-10-24	6.35	6.74	-11.26	0	Balance	-37	17
2025-10-17	6.55	6.78	-7.35	0	Balance	-30	16
2025-10-10	6.75	6.79	-6.85	0	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2025-10-03	6.45	6.81	-13.27	0	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2025-09-26	6.50	6.82	-11.39	0	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2025-09-19	6.25	6.82	-15.16	0	Downward Expansion	-60	66
2025-09-12	6.05	6.81	-19.16	0	Balance	-71	65
2025-09-05	6.30	6.80	-15.63	0	Balance	-61	40
2025-08-29	6.50	6.79	-13.91	0	Balance	-11	12
2025-08-22	6.85	6.76	-13.04	0	Balance	5	13
2025-08-15	6.75	6.72	-15.91	0	Balance	0	11
2025-08-08	7.15	6.68	-9.36	0	Balance	22	17
2025-08-01	6.60	6.62	-12.01	0	Balance	-4	10
2025-07-25	6.70	6.56	-13.74	0	Rotation Down	-16	18
2025-07-18	6.65	6.50	-13.42	0	Rotation Down	-21	35
2025-07-11	6.25	6.45	-19.44	0	Deceleration	-29	45
2025-07-04	6.45	6.42	-15.97	0	Deceleration	-3	23
2025-06-27	6.35	6.37	-18.92	0	Upward Expansion	-6	21
2025-06-20	6.50	6.34	-16.31	0	Upward Expansion	15	17
2025-06-13	6.70	6.30	-14.98	0	Upward Expansion	34	21
2025-06-06	7.20	6.28	-11.71	0	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-05-30	7.40	6.26	-10.06	0	Upward Expansion	61	68
2025-05-23	7.55	6.24	-8.35	0	Upward Expansion	61	68
2025-05-16	7.70	6.21	-8.58	0	Upward Expansion	69	67
2025-05-09	8.20	6.18	-0.79	0	Deceleration	83	51
2025-05-02	7.00	6.15	-12.27	0	Deceleration	45	27
2025-04-25	6.45	6.16	-19.07	0	Rotation Up	40	22
2025-04-18	6.35	6.21	-18.57	0	Rotation Up	20	24
2025-04-11	6.50	6.28	-13.32	0	Rotation Up	35	38
2025-04-04	7.35	6.31	-4.42	0	Rotation Up	46	70
2025-03-28	7.30	6.30	-15.10	0	Rotation Up	50	73
2025-03-21	6.90	6.29	-22.24	0	Rotation Up	30	67
2025-03-14	7.40	6.31	-18.40	0	Rotation Up	51	72
2025-03-07	6.70	6.32	-26.65	0	Balance	38	54
2025-02-28	6.60	6.35	-25.98	0	Balance	17	28
2025-02-21	6.00	6.40	-31.70	0	Balance	-9	17
2025-02-14	5.80	6.47	-35.33	0	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2025-02-07	5.90	6.57	-31.65	0	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2025-01-31	5.60	6.68	-35.70	40	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-01-24	5.45	6.81	-37.91	0	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-01-17	5.70	6.92	-34.89	0	Downward Expansion	-54	56
2025-01-10	5.30	7.02	-38.23	0	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2025-01-03	5.00	7.17	-42.57	0	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2024-12-27	4.84	7.37	-44.90	0	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2024-12-20	5.20	7.54	-40.99	0	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2024-12-13	5.20	7.71	-42.78	0	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2024-12-06	4.96	7.88	-45.24	0	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2024-11-29	5.55	8.07	-38.97	0	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2024-11-22	5.30	8.24	-42.50	0	Downward Expansion	-89	89
2024-11-15	6.00	8.44	-36.45	0	Downward Expansion	-82	83
2024-11-08	6.45	8.59	-32.57	0	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-11-01	6.80	8.74	-29.43	0	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2024-10-25	6.85	8.84	-30.80	0	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-10-18	6.85	8.96	-32.43	0	Downward Expansion	-71	49
2024-10-11	7.20	9.09	-29.68	0	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-10-04	7.30	9.16	-29.50	0	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-09-27	8.00	9.21	-24.57	0	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2024-09-20	8.40	9.24	-20.96	100	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-09-13	7.30	9.28	-31.77	0	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2024-09-06	7.15	9.37	-33.59	0	Downward Expansion	-74	82
2024-08-30	7.10	9.47	-37.55	0	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2024-08-23	7.35	9.57	-35.62	0	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2024-08-16	7.80	9.69	-31.55	0	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2024-08-09	7.60	9.80	-33.04	0	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2024-08-02	7.90	9.91	-30.72	0	Downward Expansion	-86	89
2024-07-26	8.20	10.01	-31.88	0	Downward Expansion	-86	79
2024-07-19	8.90	10.10	-27.18	1124	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2024-07-12	9.10	10.18	-27.08	0	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-07-05	9.60	10.25	-23.76	0	Downward Expansion	-62	74
2024-06-28	8.85	10.33	-28.35	0	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2024-06-21	8.70	10.43	-29.85	0	Downward Expansion	-85	71
2024-06-14	9.75	10.57	-20.92	0	Balance	-53	31
2024-06-07	10.80	10.65	-16.09	0	Balance	-18	17
2024-05-31	10.10	10.68	-22.68	0	Balance	-39	26
2024-05-24	10.10	10.73	-24.48	0	Balance	-31	16
2024-05-17	10.30	10.75	-23.96	0	Rotation Up	-5	14
2024-05-10	10.70	10.80	-20.46	0	Rotation Up	18	26
2024-05-03	10.90	10.85	-17.79	200	Downward Expansion	5	26
2024-04-26	11.00	10.90	-16.87	0	Downward Expansion	6	21
2024-04-19	10.60	10.94	-20.44	0	Downward Expansion	-17	25
2024-04-12	11.00	11.00	-18.68	428	Downward Expansion	-8	25
2024-04-05	9.80	11.05	-28.36	0	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2024-03-29	10.60	11.16	-22.51	0	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2024-03-22	10.60	11.26	-22.30	0	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-03-15	9.20	11.37	-31.39	40	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2024-03-08	8.90	11.53	-33.58	0	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-03-01	8.90	11.71	-34.03	34	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2024-02-23	9.70	11.90	-28.66	0	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2024-02-16	9.95	12.10	-27.70	0	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2024-02-09	10.10	12.24	-25.89	0	Downward Expansion	-82	82
2024-02-02	10.20	12.32	-27.17	0	Downward Expansion	-84	71
2024-01-26	10.80	12.39	-23.47	0	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2024-01-19	11.00	12.46	-19.65	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-01-12	11.10	12.53	-20.39	0	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2024-01-05	10.90	12.61	-22.76	885	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2023-12-29	10.90	12.69	-22.92	0	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2023-12-22	11.40	12.76	-18.81	34	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2023-12-15	11.10	12.89	-20.11	0	Downward Expansion	-79	49
2023-12-08	11.90	13.01	-13.09	0	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2023-12-01	12.00	13.16	-12.05	0	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2023-11-24	12.70	13.29	-4.97	0	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2023-11-17	12.20	13.42	-9.06	0	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-11-10	11.90	13.55	-9.14	0	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2023-11-03	11.40	13.66	-12.36	0	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2023-10-27	10.80	13.76	-12.37	0	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2023-10-20	11.70	13.89	-5.64	0	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2023-10-13	12.20	13.98	-4.72	0	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2023-10-06	12.60	14.04	-0.33	0	Downward Expansion	-66	79

Price vs TrendAbove+50.6%

Trend directionRising+21.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+72.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+64.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+45.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+39.6%

Price momentumPositive+100.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

94 / ±100

+25.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

77 /100

+9.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GMM Directional State ↗ GMM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up87

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration54

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-09-25	Established	+68.9%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+17.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-5.7%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-02-27	New	-12.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-02-06	Developing	+18.9%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-11-28	Developing	-5.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-10	New	+8.0%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-09-12	Developing	-8.3%
Rotation Down	2025-07-18	2025-07-25	New	+0.8%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-07-11	New	-3.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	-17.5%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+17.1%
Rotation Up	2025-03-14	2025-04-25	Developing	-12.8%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	+11.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: 45.73
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +100.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +68.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 65th percentile17 in cohort

Test GMM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GMM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 12.89rising

Slow Activity EUR 10.34rising

Trend Reference EUR 9.36+50.6% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 8.19+72.1% close margin

Structural low EUR 7.15shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +37.2%

From structural high -0.7%

From structural low +156.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+5.8%-14.5% to +17.0%	+61.5%	+61.5%	+5.3%	+76.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+17.9%-12.3% to +50.3%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+5.3%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+18.1%-18.2% to +77.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+23.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-5.8%-18.1% to +6.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-22.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GMM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map