Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Defensive

GO Stage Analysis

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 11.96Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 57−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 41/100directional strength

Maturity 80/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -27.3%USD 16.45 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.96	9.42	5.29	10014688	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-10-02	11.62	9.23	1.21	14861408	Upward Expansion	52	38
2026-09-25	11.07	9.06	-4.35	8033516	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-09-18	11.27	9.02	-0.85	10120745	Upward Expansion	64	68
2026-09-11	11.25	8.99	-1.57	11347337	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-09-04	12.38	8.96	5.84	12799628	Upward Expansion	81	92
2026-08-28	12.17	8.88	2.63	13301543	Upward Expansion	84	91
2026-08-21	11.60	8.80	-3.43	13028626	Upward Expansion	82	80
2026-08-14	11.13	8.74	-11.33	20537028	Deceleration	78	48
2026-08-07	9.91	8.68	-21.63	11898045	Deceleration	49	26
2026-07-31	9.19	8.67	-25.16	11992417	Rotation Up	42	25
2026-07-24	9.01	8.70	-27.10	11451892	Rotation Up	31	31
2026-07-17	9.44	8.75	-25.74	9303613	Rotation Up	36	53
2026-07-10	9.98	8.77	-25.62	8285621	Rotation Up	40	64
2026-07-03	10.39	8.79	-22.00	9757815	Rotation Up	44	68
2026-06-26	9.92	8.83	-25.62	13955691	Rotation Up	40	62
2026-06-19	9.26	8.87	-34.30	15469273	Balance	27	46
2026-06-12	9.58	8.91	-31.13	12419631	Balance	16	25
2026-06-05	8.56	8.96	-37.82	12497997	Balance	-7	10
2026-05-29	8.51	9.08	-41.76	10334092	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2026-05-22	8.02	9.25	-44.36	20625507	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2026-05-15	7.40	9.49	-48.74	28183109	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2026-05-08	8.19	9.76	-44.34	12133186	Downward Expansion	-34	25
2026-05-01	8.35	10.00	-41.12	11973350	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2026-04-24	7.81	10.27	-45.16	13069342	Downward Expansion	-46	41
2026-04-17	7.58	10.54	-46.63	16409353	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2026-04-10	6.84	10.83	-49.86	15599734	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-04-03	7.22	11.20	-45.65	13712444	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-03-27	7.07	11.57	-45.60	26395182	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2026-03-20	5.79	11.94	-57.44	26836540	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-03-13	6.40	12.36	-54.50	27795734	Downward Expansion	-90	87
2026-03-06	6.59	12.76	-54.16	40468526	Downward Expansion	-91	68
2026-02-27	9.88	13.16	-32.97	11656838	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2026-02-20	10.36	13.28	-30.29	10282752	Downward Expansion	-48	47
2026-02-13	10.28	13.40	-30.74	8613506	Downward Expansion	-52	53
2026-02-06	10.07	13.52	-33.75	10252854	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-01-30	9.53	13.62	-39.27	11655652	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2026-01-23	9.80	13.75	-38.38	9927614	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2026-01-16	9.59	13.84	-40.24	10109447	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2026-01-09	9.55	13.97	-41.67	15352231	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2026-01-02	10.17	14.11	-37.31	11388949	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2025-12-26	10.27	14.23	-38.41	6917714	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2025-12-19	10.00	14.34	-39.86	19095290	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2025-12-12	10.83	14.45	-35.25	10089946	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2025-12-05	11.34	14.56	-34.35	12574258	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-11-28	11.13	14.66	-35.74	8794888	Rotation Down	-73	89
2025-11-21	10.57	14.84	-36.97	14010379	Rotation Down	-60	84
2025-11-14	11.25	15.01	-35.89	10771778	Rotation Down	-53	77
2025-11-07	12.15	15.14	-31.67	25427885	Deceleration	-50	67
2025-10-31	13.61	15.21	-26.53	14149945	Deceleration	-34	33
2025-10-24	15.14	15.21	-17.19	12069099	Deceleration	2	15
2025-10-17	15.36	15.15	-14.68	11057521	Deceleration	16	20
2025-10-10	15.39	15.06	-12.98	12745642	Deceleration	22	23
2025-10-03	16.47	14.95	-9.37	14832092	Deceleration	36	24
2025-09-26	15.84	14.83	-12.17	17382837	Upward Expansion	43	30
2025-09-19	16.55	14.70	-9.21	15577734	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-09-12	17.77	14.67	-0.77	11816816	Upward Expansion	65	73
2025-09-05	18.32	14.64	3.89	8216991	Upward Expansion	66	85
2025-08-29	18.11	14.58	3.26	13120718	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-22	18.63	14.52	5.39	12497122	Rotation Up	81	90
2025-08-15	18.33	14.44	2.44	14445855	Rotation Up	58	75
2025-08-08	18.54	14.36	3.59	42445638	Rotation Up	55	49
2025-08-01	13.50	14.30	-22.31	14432187	Balance	-32	15
2025-07-25	13.88	14.37	-22.73	10205960	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-07-18	13.77	14.42	-23.60	10302053	Downward Expansion	-49	30
2025-07-11	13.27	14.52	-26.36	13904337	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-07-04	13.39	14.71	-26.80	13982012	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-06-27	12.63	14.91	-30.76	29761278	Downward Expansion	-68	50
2025-06-20	13.44	15.18	-24.28	14396486	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2025-06-13	13.63	15.39	-24.05	16796727	Downward Expansion	-47	52
2025-06-06	13.69	15.53	-24.89	15917173	Downward Expansion	-45	49
2025-05-30	13.58	15.66	-24.76	14489986	Balance	-46	35
2025-05-23	13.29	15.71	-25.88	14596634	Balance	-45	20
2025-05-16	14.22	15.83	-23.55	20643053	Balance	-18	16
2025-05-09	14.40	15.93	-18.26	29175140	Balance	-13	19
2025-05-02	16.48	15.99	-7.51	18338719	Downward Expansion	-5	19
2025-04-25	15.69	15.99	-10.13	18334055	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2025-04-18	15.16	16.06	-8.92	12729771	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-04-11	14.16	16.09	-18.17	17642646	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-04-04	13.70	16.16	-16.12	16983568	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-03-28	13.25	16.28	-27.92	9231205	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2025-03-21	12.68	16.47	-33.83	9505630	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-03-14	11.99	16.64	-38.38	16230558	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2025-03-07	13.10	16.87	-35.47	16711318	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2025-02-28	11.87	17.09	-44.27	31071469	Downward Expansion	-80	63
2025-02-21	15.68	17.32	-30.04	8364319	Downward Expansion	-46	25
2025-02-14	16.68	17.49	-28.23	10216310	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2025-02-07	16.79	17.65	-26.61	9327179	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2025-01-31	16.19	17.80	-29.97	11460082	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2025-01-24	16.32	17.99	-31.19	7845226	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2025-01-17	15.95	18.19	-32.58	8430772	Downward Expansion	-57	56
2025-01-10	16.50	18.36	-29.20	6884526	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2025-01-03	15.67	18.50	-35.15	6155828	Balance	-52	39
2024-12-27	15.47	18.68	-37.42	4260367	Balance	-51	29
2024-12-20	16.73	18.89	-32.71	9186334	Rotation Up	-22	18
2024-12-13	19.11	19.09	-25.90	5468709	Rotation Up	17	29
2024-12-06	19.12	19.20	-26.32	7624586	Balance	16	28
2024-11-29	21.00	19.26	-17.66	8291165	Balance	13	26
2024-11-22	19.54	19.42	-23.73	10542139	Downward Expansion	-14	11
2024-11-15	17.82	19.64	-30.09	11677378	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-11-08	17.80	19.94	-33.48	17535840	Downward Expansion	-46	32
2024-11-01	15.05	20.23	-41.50	16684462	Downward Expansion	-74	51
2024-10-25	16.77	20.62	-36.93	7914275	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-10-18	17.36	21.02	-35.64	10549149	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-10-11	16.06	21.38	-41.22	9450623	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2024-10-04	16.58	21.74	-39.47	9163942	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2024-09-27	17.67	22.05	-36.32	8952035	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-09-20	15.97	22.34	-42.71	11634666	Downward Expansion	-78	70
2024-09-13	16.44	22.68	-41.09	8085711	Downward Expansion	-81	77
2024-09-06	17.34	22.99	-35.17	7039047	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2024-08-30	18.94	23.26	-34.23	7265628	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-08-23	17.73	23.46	-39.71	9539563	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2024-08-16	18.86	23.71	-36.25	7403037	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-08-09	19.60	23.94	-31.30	15194329	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2024-08-02	18.83	24.19	-34.76	14303262	Downward Expansion	-76	52
2024-07-26	20.80	24.45	-31.14	13122243	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2024-07-19	21.57	24.65	-31.30	9726451	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-07-12	21.20	24.84	-35.97	7614372	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2024-07-05	22.01	25.09	-34.54	4562757	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-06-28	22.12	25.34	-32.69	7993389	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-06-21	21.22	25.55	-36.13	25328596	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2024-06-14	20.65	25.79	-38.34	7149378	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2024-06-07	20.91	26.04	-36.00	7011658	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-05-31	21.99	26.25	-31.50	4653338	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2024-05-24	22.62	26.47	-31.27	8927384	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-05-17	22.47	26.61	-31.43	16898489	Downward Expansion	-74	76
2024-05-10	20.89	26.78	-35.57	19375988	Downward Expansion	-85	73
2024-05-03	25.71	27.00	-20.48	5392055	Balance	-43	27
2024-04-26	26.17	27.06	-18.92	5432933	Balance	-35	20
2024-04-19	26.97	27.15	-13.86	5853008	Balance	-12	10
2024-04-12	26.29	27.21	-21.07	5933057	Balance	4	13
2024-04-05	26.82	27.33	-20.44	6214778	Balance	13	21
2024-03-29	28.78	27.46	-15.88	4486810	Balance	28	27
2024-03-22	28.22	27.52	-18.44	8381360	Balance	-6	12
2024-03-15	26.82	27.66	-20.66	6514833	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2024-03-08	25.93	27.89	-24.68	5751695	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-03-01	26.38	28.17	-25.13	9789608	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-02-23	25.99	28.40	-25.36	3950955	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-02-16	25.89	28.65	-25.25	5864698	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2024-02-09	25.55	28.90	-27.99	6114945	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2024-02-02	24.69	29.14	-29.77	5916145	Downward Expansion	-76	72
2024-01-26	25.35	29.37	-27.78	5125647	Downward Expansion	-73	70
2024-01-19	25.90	29.55	-26.47	4555790	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2024-01-12	26.98	29.65	-21.98	4414310	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2024-01-05	26.50	29.71	-21.62	6000793	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2023-12-29	26.96	29.76	-23.45	5504971	Downward Expansion	-61	34
2023-12-22	27.37	29.82	-22.79	6718039	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2023-12-15	28.67	29.88	-19.16	6254901	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2023-12-08	29.25	29.95	-15.52	4109172	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2023-12-01	28.47	29.99	-17.79	4170675	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2023-11-24	28.52	30.02	-18.13	2602690	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2023-11-17	28.01	30.07	-19.45	6450504	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2023-11-10	27.44	30.08	-20.09	6136579	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2023-11-03	28.36	30.10	-15.58	5185644	Rotation Down	-64	52
2023-10-27	27.05	30.08	-15.09	4833837	Rotation Down	-46	70
2023-10-20	27.58	30.12	-16.53	3246801	Rotation Down	-43	70

Price vs TrendAbove+27.0%

Trend directionRising+8.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-27.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+17.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+30.9%

Price momentumPositive+74.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.95×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

57 / ±100

-10.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

-43.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GO Directional State ↗ GO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up44

Upward Expansion67

Deceleration65

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 8%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 64%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-10-09	Developing	+3.1%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	+12.3%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-7.4%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+8.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-05-29	Established	-25.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	-1.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-07	Developing	-26.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-09-26	Developing	-12.5%
Rotation Up	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+0.5%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-01	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-07-25	Developing	+1.4%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-05-30	New	-5.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-05-02	Established	-0.1%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	+1.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing49

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution21

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.29
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +74.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +51.9%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 62th percentile8 in cohort

Test GO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.95×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 11.55falling

Slow Activity USD 10.34rising

Trend Reference USD 9.42+27.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 16.45-27.3% close margin

Structural low USD 6.73shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.5%

Annualized volatility +42.1%

From structural high -24.9%

From structural low +111.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-2.8%-12.5% to +21.4%	+36.4%	+36.4%	-4.0%	+72.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-8.6%-38.5% to +31.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-10.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-17.8%-45.4% to +30.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-26.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-32.8%-35.4% to -9.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-58.7%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map