Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

PNR Stage Analysis

Pantoro Gold Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 3.02Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 47/100directional strength

Maturity 8/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +12.6%AUD 2.68 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	3.02	2.86	-19.23	14330397	Rotation Up	34	47
2026-10-02	2.93	2.88	-22.40	13457923	Rotation Up	10	21
2026-09-25	2.94	2.95	-23.22	13895632	Balance	13	26
2026-09-18	2.77	3.04	-29.24	30484639	Balance	-1	22
2026-09-11	2.60	3.11	-34.47	11629139	Downward Expansion	-6	26
2026-09-04	2.89	3.19	-30.21	3430711	Downward Expansion	-4	27
2026-08-28	2.88	3.24	-31.75	3180136	Downward Expansion	-20	32
2026-08-21	2.68	3.31	-36.77	2564900	Downward Expansion	-43	34
2026-08-14	2.42	3.41	-43.69	2212644	Downward Expansion	-52	55
2026-08-07	2.52	3.50	-42.81	2901391	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-07-31	2.04	3.58	-52.59	2961292	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-07-24	2.00	3.69	-52.78	1948414	Downward Expansion	-74	88
2026-07-17	1.92	3.79	-55.27	3236927	Downward Expansion	-85	92
2026-07-10	2.09	3.88	-51.47	4529072	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2026-07-03	2.39	3.98	-44.96	4374091	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2026-06-26	2.40	4.06	-44.46	4302224	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2026-06-19	2.74	4.16	-37.26	3321146	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2026-06-12	2.52	4.22	-42.30	4825818	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2026-06-05	2.64	4.30	-38.62	16270459	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2026-05-29	3.00	4.38	-31.39	3774699	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2026-05-22	3.13	4.45	-27.96	8095662	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2026-05-15	3.33	4.52	-23.27	10112440	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2026-05-08	3.39	4.61	-22.90	6999716	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-05-01	3.21	4.69	-26.89	12325995	Downward Expansion	-68	45
2026-04-24	3.77	4.80	-14.62	11239813	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-04-17	3.73	4.87	-16.89	11122580	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2026-04-10	3.87	4.92	-13.74	7851019	Downward Expansion	-62	75
2026-04-03	3.50	4.97	-18.23	9200231	Downward Expansion	-62	79
2026-03-27	3.18	5.02	-24.88	16715806	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2026-03-20	3.36	5.06	-19.74	30353203	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2026-03-13	3.46	5.10	-18.98	28783129	Downward Expansion	-74	45
2026-03-06	5.14	5.12	17.41	8597289	Balance	1	6
2026-02-27	5.75	5.09	27.78	11093893	Balance	28	13
2026-02-20	4.89	5.02	11.54	8979538	Balance	-18	24
2026-02-13	4.83	4.98	13.28	9994002	Balance	-18	19
2026-02-06	4.46	4.92	8.17	13755591	Deceleration	-10	6
2026-01-30	5.09	4.86	22.48	12643065	Deceleration	33	18
2026-01-23	5.40	4.80	31.93	13253545	Deceleration	42	24
2026-01-16	5.22	4.72	29.04	8768211	Deceleration	33	19
2026-01-09	4.99	4.66	28.00	7705916	Deceleration	23	13
2026-01-02	5.16	4.61	34.27	4604951	Deceleration	24	11
2025-12-26	5.11	4.56	34.77	4571821	Deceleration	9	10
2025-12-19	4.80	4.50	30.99	18748420	Deceleration	7	9
2025-12-12	4.79	4.45	31.80	10658763	Deceleration	8	12
2025-12-05	4.80	4.40	35.25	41359686	Deceleration	13	13
2025-11-28	5.39	4.35	54.83	5717641	Deceleration	34	23
2025-11-21	4.65	4.27	39.53	6252419	Deceleration	22	25
2025-11-14	5.08	4.21	51.15	6303839	Deceleration	34	29
2025-11-07	4.85	4.14	44.84	10769816	Upward Expansion	41	28
2025-10-31	5.12	4.06	53.50	11430335	Upward Expansion	50	44
2025-10-24	5.32	3.97	59.65	12491710	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-10-17	6.04	3.89	84.92	15153154	Upward Expansion	70	68
2025-10-10	5.87	3.78	84.51	10539736	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-10-03	6.31	3.67	102.15	13954469	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-09-26	5.92	3.54	98.94	11863680	Upward Expansion	90	95
2025-09-19	5.31	3.42	83.27	32574169	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-09-12	5.37	3.33	87.32	12180393	Upward Expansion	89	93
2025-09-05	4.82	3.24	71.73	15178668	Upward Expansion	82	90
2025-08-29	4.62	3.15	65.75	9787160	Upward Expansion	83	90
2025-08-22	4.32	3.06	57.55	6184844	Upward Expansion	77	86
2025-08-15	4.31	2.98	60.31	9385909	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-08-08	4.06	2.89	56.03	10801018	Upward Expansion	76	65
2025-08-01	3.55	2.82	41.18	7341990	Deceleration	56	32
2025-07-25	3.72	2.75	50.15	14208513	Deceleration	54	26
2025-07-18	3.00	2.68	21.88	9034333	Deceleration	26	21
2025-07-11	2.89	2.63	21.14	9527248	Deceleration	28	21
2025-07-04	3.23	2.58	36.29	9743786	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-06-27	3.06	2.53	31.92	17455734	Upward Expansion	48	36
2025-06-20	3.26	2.49	42.19	40240042	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-06-13	3.60	2.43	58.26	7162907	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-06-06	3.54	2.37	58.99	7920954	Upward Expansion	73	68
2025-05-30	3.40	2.32	56.64	21923447	Upward Expansion	71	72
2025-05-23	3.43	2.27	61.84	7383610	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-05-16	3.21	2.23	54.28	12371920	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-05-09	3.26	2.19	61.14	8226561	Upward Expansion	77	69
2025-05-02	2.84	2.15	42.58	9589012	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-04-25	3.05	2.13	60.38	8533273	Upward Expansion	75	52
2025-04-18	2.87	2.09	56.09	7047399	Upward Expansion	72	49
2025-04-11	2.58	2.06	45.53	3206961	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-04-04	2.42	2.04	37.89	8816525	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-03-28	2.80	2.03	55.54	6415024	Upward Expansion	75	65
2025-03-21	2.72	2.00	54.63	18746754	Upward Expansion	76	65
2025-03-14	2.72	1.97	60.23	6226889	Upward Expansion	83	83
2025-03-07	2.38	1.94	40.25	2543280	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-02-28	2.38	1.91	38.76	3358629	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-02-21	2.46	1.87	44.23	7229288	Upward Expansion	84	91
2025-02-14	2.55	1.84	47.48	19346509	Upward Expansion	85	86
2025-02-07	2.21	1.80	31.04	5995000	Balance	56	55
2025-01-31	1.96	1.78	17.58	3662244	Balance	25	26
2025-01-24	1.78	1.78	10.44	4177733	Balance	-0	11
2025-01-17	1.78	1.77	13.11	2286432	Rotation Down	-9	10
2025-01-10	1.78	1.76	14.66	3444029	Rotation Down	-27	26
2025-01-03	1.62	1.75	5.44	1077632	Rotation Down	-34	45
2024-12-27	1.53	1.75	0.54	1321073	Rotation Down	-31	52
2024-12-20	1.48	1.75	0.13	2911879	Rotation Down	-39	57
2024-12-13	1.62	1.75	7.06	3745142	Rotation Down	-27	46
2024-12-06	1.67	1.75	9.68	2737454	Upward Expansion	-22	35
2024-11-29	1.70	1.74	12.73	2691071	Upward Expansion	0	21
2024-11-22	1.70	1.73	14.24	2477832	Upward Expansion	13	18
2024-11-15	1.68	1.73	15.64	3758354	Upward Expansion	21	14
2024-11-08	1.87	1.72	29.54	5638191	Upward Expansion	46	30
2024-11-01	2.12	1.70	52.22	2656690	Upward Expansion	62	44
2024-10-25	2.12	1.68	53.24	5124450	Upward Expansion	65	47
2024-10-18	2.12	1.64	54.72	4785595	Upward Expansion	68	49
2024-10-11	2.04	1.61	52.39	4688239	Upward Expansion	64	49
2024-10-04	2.04	1.57	56.49	2023461	Upward Expansion	67	52
2024-09-27	1.96	1.53	51.75	2682509	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-09-20	2.04	1.49	61.34	2635294	Upward Expansion	72	80
2024-09-13	1.96	1.44	59.70	1505691	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-09-06	1.96	1.40	64.17	1871811	Upward Expansion	70	78
2024-08-30	2.12	1.36	79.74	3117920	Upward Expansion	86	79
2024-08-23	1.78	1.31	55.29	2283591	Deceleration	71	42
2024-08-16	1.63	1.28	44.55	4288194	Deceleration	45	21
2024-08-09	1.50	1.25	37.40	3104534	Deceleration	28	21
2024-08-02	1.43	1.22	29.66	2008744	Deceleration	33	21
2024-07-26	1.43	1.21	30.33	2168174	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-07-19	1.48	1.19	34.07	3615468	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-07-12	1.62	1.17	46.38	4161986	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-07-05	1.70	1.15	57.10	4214223	Upward Expansion	74	55
2024-06-28	1.63	1.12	52.90	2057541	Upward Expansion	71	52
2024-06-21	1.60	1.09	50.01	2913963	Upward Expansion	72	53
2024-06-14	1.38	1.07	31.16	3776738	Upward Expansion	63	51
2024-06-07	1.58	1.05	48.43	1950861	Upward Expansion	70	64
2024-05-31	1.56	1.02	50.84	2254357	Upward Expansion	72	63
2024-05-24	1.51	0.9951	46.14	2945265	Upward Expansion	68	63
2024-05-17	1.55	0.9673	48.45	6725662	Upward Expansion	76	68
2024-05-10	1.46	0.9407	42.04	2477194	Upward Expansion	69	68
2024-05-03	1.39	0.9135	37.73	3648995	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-04-26	1.51	0.888	50.25	1959300	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-04-19	1.48	0.8585	47.68	5204442	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-04-12	1.43	0.8324	39.13	6779058	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-04-05	1.26	0.8115	23.10	4985394	Upward Expansion	89	94
2024-03-29	1.07	0.7967	3.22	1299848	Upward Expansion	78	83
2024-03-22	1.10	0.7888	8.17	4753484	Upward Expansion	83	71
2024-03-15	0.918	0.7848	-8.99	3292892	Balance	34	26
2024-03-08	0.867	0.7826	-16.00	1778924	Downward Expansion	-8	7
2024-03-01	0.697	0.7837	-31.70	1349697	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-02-23	0.714	0.8001	-29.52	2237003	Downward Expansion	-47	50
2024-02-16	0.714	0.8217	-30.12	824304	Downward Expansion	-50	57
2024-02-09	0.68	0.846	-33.79	620198	Balance	-64	60
2024-02-02	0.697	0.8693	-33.68	1485217	Balance	-60	42
2024-01-26	0.697	0.8857	-33.49	1291862	Balance	-48	30
2024-01-19	0.748	0.9033	-28.66	2235212	Balance	-35	15
2024-01-12	0.816	0.918	-24.52	2326203	Balance	-9	12
2024-01-05	0.901	0.9288	-17.90	476411	Balance	-2	17
2023-12-29	0.969	0.9356	-13.91	651352	Balance	8	16
2023-12-22	0.884	0.9435	-21.58	1216540	Balance	-5	12
2023-12-15	0.884	0.9531	-21.96	1471525	Balance	-6	12
2023-12-08	0.816	0.965	-26.54	1950894	Downward Expansion	-14	16
2023-12-01	0.884	0.9815	-20.72	1912313	Downward Expansion	-23	22
2023-11-24	0.833	0.999	-26.44	1985243	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2023-11-17	0.833	1.01	-28.23	2188334	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2023-11-10	0.816	1.03	-30.60	3679687	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2023-11-03	0.714	1.04	-40.67	24225196	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2023-10-27	0.68	1.05	-43.77	2033839	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2023-10-20	0.748	1.06	-40.43	4074096	Downward Expansion	-66	69

Price vs TrendAbove+5.5%

Trend directionFalling-20.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+12.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+30.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+32.2%

Price momentumNegative-22.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

34 / ±100

+40.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

47 /100

+21.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PNR Directional State ↗ PNR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance27

Rotation Up69

Upward Expansion48

Deceleration19

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion28

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+3.1%
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+6.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-09-11	Extended	-24.9%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	+6.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2026-02-06	Established	-12.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-11-07	Established	+19.5%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-08-01	New	+22.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-07-04	Established	+26.7%
Balance	2025-01-24	2025-02-07	New	+23.8%
Rotation Down	2024-12-13	2025-01-17	Developing	+10.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-12-06	Established	-21.6%
Deceleration	2024-08-02	2024-08-23	New	+25.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-22	2024-07-26	Established	+29.2%
Balance	2024-03-15	2024-03-15	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing59

Stage 2 · Advancing21

Stage 3 · Distribution17

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.23
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -22.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -19.2%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 69th percentile59 in cohort

Test PNR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.94×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PNR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 2.92rising

Slow Activity AUD 2.70falling

Trend Reference AUD 2.86+5.5% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 2.68+12.6% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.90shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +8.5%

Annualized volatility +61.1%

From structural high -53.4%

From structural low +58.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	1	-27.5%-27.5% to -27.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-23.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	-50.0%-50.0% to -50.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-42.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	-48.8%-48.8% to -48.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-50.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+5.0%+5.0% to +5.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-2.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PNR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map