Weekly structural research ยท MEX ยท Industrials

BE Stage Analysis

Bloom Energy Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 5,157.86Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^MXX
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Re-acceleration watch

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and expanding.
  • Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.
Direction 74โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 56/100directional strength
Maturity 46/100lifecycle context
Confidence 65/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +296.0%MXN 1,302.45 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-255,157.863,996.5464.223526Deceleration7456
2026-09-184,598.093,912.0953.723098Deceleration4734
2026-09-114,692.873,843.2558.613118Deceleration4523
2026-09-044,200.003,766.4943.133334Deceleration38
2026-08-283,606.053,709.0624.252061Deceleration-2022
2026-08-213,400.003,673.8918.68294Deceleration-2936
2026-08-143,900.003,645.4941.32290Deceleration-026
2026-08-073,740.003,603.4933.25182Deceleration-327
2026-07-313,631.083,560.2531.9985Deceleration-226
2026-07-243,240.003,497.6921.373988Deceleration-1024
2026-07-173,500.003,445.0933.2114Deceleration1319
2026-07-104,265.643,381.9266.29312Deceleration4231
2026-07-034,733.003,305.5488.197Deceleration4538
2026-06-264,514.283,218.3585.056592Upward Expansion5744
2026-06-195,741.343,134.21141.3511Upward Expansion8162
2026-06-124,537.892,998.0298.52150Upward Expansion6257
2026-06-054,633.262,914.09115.65292Upward Expansion6564
2026-05-294,940.902,838.15130.405176Upward Expansion6769
2026-05-225,266.002,753.45156.963830Upward Expansion8292
2026-05-154,890.002,646.58151.39835Upward Expansion8193
2026-05-084,560.002,553.58138.758227Upward Expansion7892
2026-05-014,925.002,454.35177.0513255Upward Expansion9397
2026-04-244,105.972,344.72138.0510669Upward Expansion9087
2026-04-173,545.002,250.70112.475520Upward Expansion8356
2026-04-102,884.512,183.9378.743161Upward Expansion6636
2026-04-032,428.442,126.7855.381436Upward Expansion4025
2026-03-272,382.722,080.1763.001327Upward Expansion5333
2026-03-202,716.112,033.8897.9313183Upward Expansion6445
2026-03-132,722.321,970.1899.8013248Upward Expansion6543
2026-03-062,437.921,903.8379.985660Upward Expansion5537
2026-02-272,624.431,846.9687.611642Upward Expansion6545
2026-02-202,532.841,774.9886.068028Upward Expansion6347
2026-02-132,390.001,706.0580.3428102Upward Expansion6162
2026-02-062,477.041,641.6893.67964Upward Expansion6374
2026-01-302,550.961,574.81114.921310Upward Expansion6677
2026-01-232,547.961,504.11119.698014Upward Expansion6972
2026-01-162,640.001,432.91138.507487Deceleration7453
2026-01-092,442.911,357.93132.082683Deceleration6731
2026-01-021,754.251,289.5277.282290Deceleration3019
2025-12-261,661.881,244.0767.58434Deceleration3419
2025-12-191,605.101,199.5969.238391Deceleration3825
2025-12-121,974.301,157.01109.6810798Deceleration4330
2025-12-052,117.321,102.12135.9811513Upward Expansion5136
2025-11-281,990.001,042.46128.243684Upward Expansion4943
2025-11-211,655.57987.04102.931447Upward Expansion6356
2025-11-142,020.00943.76154.261465Upward Expansion6766
2025-11-072,355.00888.22204.61365Upward Expansion8073
2025-10-312,399.99824.72230.81237Upward Expansion9176
2025-10-242,060.00759.72209.13920Upward Expansion8775
2025-10-172,100.00706.06229.431674Upward Expansion9779
2025-10-101,583.00651.78168.261038Upward Expansion8173
2025-10-031,636.00614.12183.41261Upward Expansion9478
2025-09-261,285.36574.58132.361412Upward Expansion7170
2025-09-191,542.00547.44194.56179Upward Expansion10094
2025-09-121,170.00511.50132.5138Upward Expansion9897
2025-09-051,030.00487.97116.89362Upward Expansion9799
2025-08-29994.21469.10122.842455Upward Expansion99100
2025-08-22805.00451.4385.02856Upward Expansion9999
2025-08-15731.83442.2075.350Rotation Up100100
2025-08-08731.83435.4080.407748Rotation Up7390
2025-08-01465.00428.6119.910Rotation Up3978
2025-07-25465.00430.7120.742060Rotation Up4580
2025-07-18459.00432.8123.182025Rotation Up5075
2025-07-11470.87435.1127.5515220Rotation Up3653
2025-07-04430.00436.7715.523000Downward Expansion1039
2025-06-27411.75439.7913.2033Downward Expansion-1748
2025-06-20390.71432.7010.940Downward Expansion-3844
2025-06-13390.71426.319.970Downward Expansion-4946
2025-06-06390.71419.9210.054397Downward Expansion-6665
2025-05-30327.55413.53-6.310Rotation Down-6988
2025-05-23327.55409.25-6.420Rotation Down-4581
2025-05-16327.55404.96-4.920Rotation Down-4882
2025-05-09327.55400.68-1.610Rotation Down-5885
2025-05-02327.55396.390.6714221Rotation Down-5784
2025-04-25357.00392.119.053000Rotation Down-3254
2025-04-18354.00386.8417.044000Rotation Down-3142
2025-04-11450.00381.6755.140Deceleration2129
2025-04-04450.00373.3158.090Deceleration2534
2025-03-28450.00364.9456.243000Deceleration3037
2025-03-21471.78356.5768.7713735Deceleration3945
2025-03-14453.00347.4866.442001Deceleration4443
2025-03-07450.00339.0167.946672Deceleration4456
2025-02-28471.00330.6581.48500Deceleration4238
2025-02-21464.00320.3878.200Deceleration4236
2025-02-14464.00310.3581.150Upward Expansion4950
2025-02-07464.00300.3189.010Upward Expansion5460
2025-01-31464.00290.2898.922946Upward Expansion5764
2025-01-24528.00280.25130.750Upward Expansion6769
2025-01-17528.00268.08143.920Upward Expansion6969
2025-01-10528.00255.91152.890Upward Expansion7090
2025-01-03528.00243.75164.120Upward Expansion7090
2024-12-27528.00231.58170.010Upward Expansion8796
2024-12-20528.00219.41176.521252Upward Expansion9598
2024-12-13520.71207.25170.030Upward Expansion9598
2024-12-06520.71195.32179.244072Upward Expansion9397
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Price vs TrendAbove+29.1%
Trend directionRising+16.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+296.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-60.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+64.2%
Relative strength directionWeakening-20.8%
Price momentumPositive+116.5%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.64ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

74 / ยฑ100

+94.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

56 /100

+34.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up76
Upward Expansion79
Deceleration55
Rotation Down13
Downward Expansion11

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 95 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 28%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 5%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-07-032026-09-25Established+9.0%
Upward Expansion2026-01-232026-06-26Established+77.2%
Deceleration2025-12-122026-01-16Developing+33.7%
Upward Expansion2025-08-222025-12-05Established+163.0%
Rotation Up2025-07-112025-08-15Developing+55.4%
Downward Expansion2025-06-062025-07-04Developing+10.1%
Rotation Down2025-04-182025-05-30Developing-7.5%
Deceleration2025-02-212025-04-11Developing-3.0%
Upward Expansion2024-12-062025-02-14Developing-10.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing0
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution75
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
94/100
Current Relative Strength
64.22
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+116.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+119.0%
Industrials regime cohort
86th percentile14 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.90ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.64ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity MXN 4,684.42rising
Slow Activity MXN 4,216.72rising
Trend Reference MXN 3,996.54+29.1% close margin
Current Fair Value MXN 1,302.45+296.0% close margin
Structural low MXN 2,115.01shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.9%
Annualized volatility +88.0%
From structural high -10.2%
From structural low +301.3%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^MXX Regime survived Read
Near term7+1.4%-25.0% to +43.0%+57.1%+57.1%+1.5%+71.4%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+4.2%-29.4% to +37.9%+50.0%+50.0%-0.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+101.7%+73.5% to +129.8%+100.0%+100.0%+94.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+445.9%+445.9% to +445.9%+100.0%+100.0%+412.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context