Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical

HOUR Stage Analysis

Hour Loop Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.79Tenure EstablishedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 41/100directional strength

Maturity 46/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.9%USD 1.66 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.79	1.93	-19.24	75084	Balance	-52	41
2026-10-02	1.86	1.93	-16.91	266083	Balance	-50	39
2026-09-25	1.74	1.93	-22.85	55110	Balance	-60	45
2026-09-18	1.77	1.94	-20.35	42208	Balance	-55	35
2026-09-11	1.84	1.95	-17.84	54321	Balance	-48	25
2026-09-04	1.92	1.95	-16.58	33731	Balance	-34	15
2026-08-28	1.84	1.94	-21.51	48212	Balance	-48	23
2026-08-21	1.85	1.94	-20.69	44380	Balance	-22	16
2026-08-14	1.94	1.94	-18.85	68450	Balance	-16	15
2026-08-07	1.94	1.94	-18.30	66763	Balance	-18	18
2026-07-31	1.78	1.93	-21.44	156890	Balance	-15	10
2026-07-24	1.87	1.94	-17.27	101590	Balance	-8	6
2026-07-17	1.90	1.94	-17.36	251125	Balance	19	11
2026-07-10	2.08	1.94	-13.66	855146	Balance	20	8
2026-07-03	1.84	1.94	-22.26	85397	Balance	-12	9
2026-06-26	1.80	1.94	-23.40	239471	Balance	-14	10
2026-06-19	2.19	1.95	-10.96	898714	Balance	33	16
2026-06-12	1.84	1.94	-22.99	183793	Balance	-2	10
2026-06-05	1.90	1.95	-18.55	104090	Balance	20	14
2026-05-29	1.91	1.95	-21.65	118385	Balance	29	16
2026-05-22	2.02	1.95	-14.65	155330	Upward Expansion	49	28
2026-05-15	2.06	1.96	-11.70	240789	Upward Expansion	52	35
2026-05-08	2.40	1.96	2.78	3303399	Rotation Up	71	57
2026-05-01	2.06	1.96	-6.56	59124	Rotation Up	24	30
2026-04-24	2.06	1.99	-4.72	50269	Rotation Up	14	24
2026-04-17	2.35	2.02	11.26	180891	Rotation Up	16	16
2026-04-10	1.88	2.05	-5.03	77069	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2026-04-03	1.82	2.11	-3.76	30321	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2026-03-27	1.71	2.17	-5.91	48447	Downward Expansion	-74	44
2026-03-20	1.89	2.16	0.45	33771	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-03-13	1.90	2.15	-1.14	57242	Downward Expansion	-31	24
2026-03-06	1.93	2.14	-0.90	43322	Downward Expansion	-33	26
2026-02-27	1.91	2.14	-3.31	44723	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2026-02-20	1.97	2.13	-0.84	102542	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2026-02-13	1.89	2.13	-4.02	112815	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2026-02-06	1.80	2.12	-10.08	52484	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2026-01-30	1.75	2.12	-15.00	103941	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2026-01-23	1.80	2.11	-13.27	104286	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2026-01-16	1.85	2.09	-11.16	92633	Downward Expansion	-36	51
2026-01-09	1.85	2.08	-12.55	119886	Downward Expansion	-34	43
2026-01-02	1.85	2.06	-11.28	237128	Deceleration	-34	40
2025-12-26	1.92	2.04	-10.50	93603	Deceleration	-21	30
2025-12-19	1.97	2.01	-8.23	226513	Deceleration	-16	21
2025-12-12	1.99	1.99	-6.51	138547	Deceleration	2	19
2025-12-05	2.03	1.97	-6.34	145738	Deceleration	6	11
2025-11-28	2.12	1.94	-0.63	155707	Deceleration	7	10
2025-11-21	1.86	1.91	-8.50	285837	Deceleration	4	12
2025-11-14	2.01	1.89	-4.07	1528321	Deceleration	9	13
2025-11-07	1.87	1.87	-10.91	194044	Deceleration	15	17
2025-10-31	2.00	1.84	-7.41	130855	Deceleration	21	18
2025-10-24	2.24	1.82	5.83	239051	Deceleration	32	19
2025-10-17	2.16	1.80	4.63	300709	Upward Expansion	38	21
2025-10-10	2.50	1.78	24.49	367086	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-10-03	2.84	1.76	39.15	748332	Upward Expansion	58	53
2025-09-26	3.06	1.72	53.19	1016536	Upward Expansion	60	72
2025-09-19	3.10	1.68	56.45	1450453	Upward Expansion	62	69
2025-09-12	3.59	1.64	87.49	73196752	Upward Expansion	78	61
2025-09-05	3.65	1.59	97.94	216210517	Rotation Up	84	56
2025-08-29	1.39	1.54	-22.23	123949	Rotation Up	-2	6
2025-08-22	1.59	1.56	-11.43	96576	Rotation Up	27	25
2025-08-15	1.76	1.58	-3.23	67205	Rotation Up	33	49
2025-08-08	1.81	1.59	0.51	164408	Rotation Up	30	54
2025-08-01	1.72	1.61	-0.39	139169	Rotation Up	24	51
2025-07-25	1.88	1.63	7.06	378972	Downward Expansion	39	45
2025-07-18	1.69	1.66	-2.14	206940	Downward Expansion	7	22
2025-07-11	1.61	1.65	-5.00	297458	Downward Expansion	-1	13
2025-07-04	1.56	1.65	-7.73	7883997	Downward Expansion	-24	16
2025-06-27	1.35	1.65	-18.50	216472	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-06-20	1.32	1.65	-16.74	160346	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2025-06-13	1.23	1.66	-22.00	46475	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2025-06-06	1.24	1.67	-21.96	33452	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-05-30	1.24	1.68	-20.28	36620	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2025-05-23	1.23	1.68	-19.37	148627	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-05-16	1.30	1.69	-16.70	195679	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2025-05-09	1.32	1.70	-9.62	104504	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-05-02	1.14	1.70	-22.01	90387	Rotation Down	-71	73
2025-04-25	1.34	1.71	-5.41	517693	Rotation Down	-34	54
2025-04-18	1.24	1.72	-6.65	57797	Rotation Down	-40	58
2025-04-11	1.23	1.72	-9.42	349408	Rotation Down	-34	52
2025-04-04	1.26	1.73	-0.13	492696	Balance	-32	45
2025-03-28	1.57	1.73	12.72	5152472	Balance	-19	27
2025-03-21	1.66	1.72	17.00	74548	Balance	7	9
2025-03-14	1.78	1.71	26.05	74550	Balance	13	10
2025-03-07	1.72	1.69	19.39	236675	Balance	22	12
2025-02-28	1.86	1.67	25.27	119591	Balance	31	13
2025-02-21	1.92	1.64	25.36	178731	Upward Expansion	33	15
2025-02-14	2.02	1.61	29.69	259116	Upward Expansion	34	17
2025-02-07	2.27	1.57	50.40	1193866	Upward Expansion	40	21
2025-01-31	2.06	1.53	37.90	5987202	Upward Expansion	47	25
2025-01-24	2.05	1.49	36.15	200532	Upward Expansion	51	35
2025-01-17	2.19	1.45	48.46	561380	Upward Expansion	56	58
2025-01-10	2.15	1.42	50.93	484452	Upward Expansion	55	52
2025-01-03	2.56	1.38	76.85	1187628	Upward Expansion	69	59
2024-12-27	2.82	1.33	95.23	103958337	Upward Expansion	76	43
2024-12-20	1.37	1.27	-2.94	115910	Upward Expansion	34	18
2024-12-13	1.61	1.26	11.04	105960	Upward Expansion	61	34
2024-12-06	1.38	1.24	-4.60	78657	Upward Expansion	41	30
2024-11-29	1.52	1.23	7.82	93956	Upward Expansion	55	37
2024-11-22	1.49	1.22	5.93	79982	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-11-15	1.66	1.21	19.67	535724	Upward Expansion	74	45
2024-11-08	1.34	1.19	-6.94	70316	Upward Expansion	45	32
2024-11-01	1.44	1.18	4.69	43146	Upward Expansion	59	43
2024-10-25	1.49	1.16	5.90	40733	Upward Expansion	63	48
2024-10-18	1.46	1.15	3.18	30467	Upward Expansion	62	54
2024-10-11	1.50	1.15	5.42	31542	Upward Expansion	68	63
2024-10-04	1.47	1.14	4.24	58446	Upward Expansion	69	63
2024-09-27	1.43	1.14	0.71	58082	Upward Expansion	68	59
2024-09-20	1.43	1.14	1.06	47002	Rotation Up	71	62
2024-09-13	1.35	1.13	-3.99	54797	Rotation Up	40	60
2024-09-06	1.26	1.13	-5.90	81253	Rotation Up	33	56
2024-08-30	1.28	1.13	-10.80	43759	Rotation Up	26	43
2024-08-23	1.39	1.13	-4.90	124228	Downward Expansion	39	38
2024-08-16	1.27	1.13	-13.14	221090	Downward Expansion	7	13
2024-08-09	1.10	1.13	-21.62	909526	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2024-08-02	0.91	1.14	-35.75	70051	Downward Expansion	-63	40
2024-07-26	0.9691	1.16	-34.63	24341	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-07-19	0.9501	1.17	-38.36	75307	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2024-07-12	0.96	1.18	-41.01	24452	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2024-07-05	0.945	1.20	-42.95	43519	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2024-06-28	0.934	1.22	-42.51	54145	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2024-06-21	1.02	1.23	-38.16	28703	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-06-14	1.02	1.25	-38.91	46666	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-06-07	1.03	1.26	-37.03	43019	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2024-05-31	1.05	1.27	-34.95	50696	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2024-05-24	1.03	1.28	-38.20	96017	Downward Expansion	-56	28
2024-05-17	1.13	1.30	-32.35	63342	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2024-05-10	1.12	1.31	-32.54	222652	Downward Expansion	-50	25
2024-05-03	1.18	1.32	-29.01	69691	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2024-04-26	1.07	1.33	-36.02	29162	Downward Expansion	-54	50
2024-04-19	1.09	1.34	-33.00	98017	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2024-04-12	1.10	1.35	-36.77	154105	Downward Expansion	-53	49
2024-04-05	0.97	1.37	-45.28	92387	Balance	-63	47
2024-03-29	1.13	1.39	-37.89	975197	Balance	-55	26
2024-03-22	1.38	1.40	-25.86	88360	Balance	-27	11
2024-03-15	1.27	1.41	-30.97	55307	Downward Expansion	-48	22
2024-03-08	1.36	1.43	-28.58	55004	Downward Expansion	-32	14
2024-03-01	1.38	1.44	-29.99	85288	Downward Expansion	-45	20
2024-02-23	1.20	1.44	-39.09	264040	Downward Expansion	-59	29
2024-02-16	1.43	1.46	-27.96	930265	Downward Expansion	-44	23
2024-02-09	1.30	1.46	-37.05	28128	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-02-02	1.30	1.48	-37.01	23615	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-01-26	1.29	1.49	-38.11	19728	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2024-01-19	1.35	1.50	-36.55	30187	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2024-01-12	1.36	1.51	-35.87	126724	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2024-01-05	1.39	1.53	-33.90	5781	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2023-12-29	1.38	1.54	-37.76	19880	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2023-12-22	1.37	1.55	-39.58	10790	Downward Expansion	-53	26
2023-12-15	1.44	1.57	-37.60	10954	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2023-12-08	1.42	1.58	-38.06	12397	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2023-12-01	1.46	1.60	-37.21	22228	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-11-24	1.39	1.61	-41.62	8878	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2023-11-17	1.43	1.61	-40.81	13264	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2023-11-10	1.40	1.62	-42.26	31323	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2023-11-03	1.43	1.63	-40.14	11576	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2023-10-27	1.41	1.65	-38.18	8206	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2023-10-20	1.45	1.67	-39.16	6585	Downward Expansion	-62	65

Price vs TrendBelow-7.2%

Trend directionFalling-0.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.6%

Price momentumNegative-4.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.52×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-4.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

+16.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HOUR Directional State ↗ HOUR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance37

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion8

Deceleration42

Rotation Down53

Downward Expansion81

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-10-09	Established	-6.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	-1.9%
Rotation Up	2026-04-17	2026-05-08	New	+2.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-04-10	Established	+1.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2026-01-02	Developing	-17.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-17	Developing	-39.8%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-09-05	Developing	+112.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-07-25	Developing	+42.4%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-05-02	New	-7.3%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-04	Developing	-32.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-02-21	Established	+34.3%
Rotation Up	2024-08-30	2024-09-20	New	+11.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-12	2024-08-23	Established	+26.3%
Balance	2024-03-22	2024-04-05	New	-29.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing57

Stage 2 · Advancing9

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining91

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.24
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -4.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -27.7%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 94th percentile34 in cohort

Test HOUR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.40×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.52×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HOUR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1.80falling

Slow Activity USD 1.89falling

Trend Reference USD 1.93-7.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 1.66+7.9% close margin

Structural low USD 1.70shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.7%

Annualized volatility +68.5%

From structural high -43.7%

From structural low +7.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	-5.8%-21.0% to +3.9%	+14.3%	+14.3%	-5.4%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-26.1%-33.3% to -3.7%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-33.7%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-10.8%-25.3% to +3.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-21.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+17.1%+13.9% to +20.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+2.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HOUR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map