Weekly structural research · MIL · Technology

CY4 Stage Analysis

Cy4gate S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 11.44Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 82−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +77.8%EUR 6.44 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.44	8.98	33.25	581798	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-10-02	10.92	8.84	26.55	406467	Upward Expansion	79	64
2026-09-25	9.97	8.72	13.56	358727	Deceleration	59	34
2026-09-18	10.12	8.63	16.94	365118	Deceleration	56	30
2026-09-11	9.31	8.54	6.52	332765	Deceleration	33	19
2026-09-04	9.05	8.46	5.03	45854	Upward Expansion	39	22
2026-08-28	9.64	8.40	11.48	17458	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-08-21	9.21	8.34	7.23	26659	Upward Expansion	57	50
2026-08-14	9.72	8.29	12.05	8599	Upward Expansion	59	56
2026-08-07	10.20	8.23	18.14	32694	Upward Expansion	73	50
2026-07-31	9.70	8.15	16.54	54739	Upward Expansion	64	42
2026-07-24	9.32	8.09	13.66	105077	Upward Expansion	47	35
2026-07-17	8.96	8.05	9.90	82159	Upward Expansion	59	43
2026-07-10	9.72	8.03	18.29	30342	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-07-03	9.33	7.98	13.98	46156	Upward Expansion	64	71
2026-06-26	9.47	7.94	19.97	47695	Upward Expansion	68	75
2026-06-19	9.99	7.89	23.61	41747	Upward Expansion	83	80
2026-06-12	9.22	7.78	17.93	123699	Upward Expansion	74	68
2026-06-05	8.71	7.68	15.80	102719	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-05-29	8.73	7.60	16.39	199610	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-05-22	8.45	7.52	14.45	548253	Upward Expansion	62	57
2026-05-15	8.06	7.46	10.63	412937	Upward Expansion	46	52
2026-05-08	8.75	7.39	20.60	425845	Deceleration	64	54
2026-05-01	7.45	7.30	5.88	126622	Deceleration	34	24
2026-04-24	8.14	7.24	17.96	416787	Deceleration	40	24
2026-04-17	7.61	7.14	8.51	280458	Deceleration	29	12
2026-04-10	7.23	7.06	6.57	131079	Deceleration	4	10
2026-04-03	6.95	6.99	7.65	86668	Deceleration	-2	15
2026-03-27	7.03	6.92	15.27	123954	Deceleration	2	10
2026-03-20	7.10	6.85	18.74	250673	Deceleration	4	10
2026-03-13	7.12	6.78	16.02	436895	Deceleration	6	10
2026-03-06	7.36	6.71	21.28	262171	Deceleration	12	15
2026-02-27	7.22	6.65	12.04	135065	Deceleration	13	19
2026-02-20	7.34	6.57	16.63	202534	Deceleration	17	18
2026-02-13	7.04	6.49	15.35	200368	Deceleration	28	20
2026-02-06	7.33	6.42	19.95	312075	Deceleration	39	26
2026-01-30	7.62	6.34	26.77	215878	Deceleration	43	35
2026-01-23	7.96	6.25	35.59	300762	Deceleration	47	41
2026-01-16	7.73	6.15	30.02	236216	Upward Expansion	49	46
2026-01-09	7.92	6.07	34.36	345703	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-01-02	7.92	5.97	36.16	218352	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-12-26	8.16	5.88	43.38	431739	Upward Expansion	68	80
2025-12-19	8.26	5.78	45.52	466023	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-12-12	8.12	5.68	48.13	399364	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-12-05	8.20	5.55	50.99	606240	Upward Expansion	90	91
2025-11-28	7.85	5.42	46.23	687889	Upward Expansion	91	72
2025-11-21	6.76	5.29	28.93	772966	Upward Expansion	77	63
2025-11-14	6.30	5.19	17.20	217674	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-11-07	6.15	5.10	17.81	292343	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-10-31	6.62	5.01	26.53	509088	Upward Expansion	85	92
2025-10-24	6.35	4.91	23.99	282630	Upward Expansion	85	91
2025-10-17	6.09	4.84	21.31	490103	Upward Expansion	84	87
2025-10-10	6.06	4.78	20.13	993570	Upward Expansion	88	82
2025-10-03	5.62	4.72	8.40	643131	Upward Expansion	78	66
2025-09-26	5.15	4.68	0.54	117760	Upward Expansion	54	34
2025-09-19	5.11	4.63	0.06	312872	Deceleration	52	31
2025-09-12	5.20	4.59	0.75	232994	Deceleration	58	30
2025-09-05	5.00	4.54	-1.50	59280	Upward Expansion	47	26
2025-08-29	4.94	4.50	-4.65	131985	Upward Expansion	50	34
2025-08-22	4.90	4.47	-8.69	161887	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-08-15	5.15	4.44	-3.65	155727	Deceleration	56	37
2025-08-08	5.32	4.42	1.01	267201	Deceleration	66	38
2025-08-01	4.84	4.40	-4.98	171919	Deceleration	38	23
2025-07-25	4.90	4.40	-6.63	121446	Deceleration	42	28
2025-07-18	4.92	4.40	-6.26	200493	Upward Expansion	45	34
2025-07-11	4.92	4.40	-6.69	124211	Upward Expansion	49	40
2025-07-04	4.94	4.39	-5.88	144642	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-06-27	5.16	4.37	-2.82	212194	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-06-20	5.14	4.35	-2.54	350921	Upward Expansion	67	79
2025-06-13	4.88	4.31	-8.48	311543	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-06-06	5.29	4.28	-4.51	188864	Rotation Up	79	87
2025-05-30	5.36	4.24	-2.75	531670	Rotation Up	49	67
2025-05-23	5.12	4.20	-6.40	959856	Balance	44	39
2025-05-16	4.29	4.18	-24.48	220331	Balance	-12	13
2025-05-09	4.20	4.20	-24.40	166155	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2025-05-02	3.85	4.22	-29.51	116682	Downward Expansion	-53	49
2025-04-25	3.86	4.25	-28.32	64097	Downward Expansion	-55	55
2025-04-18	3.73	4.29	-28.82	139567	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2025-04-11	3.39	4.34	-32.20	180302	Downward Expansion	-72	50
2025-04-04	3.64	4.41	-29.15	199808	Downward Expansion	-56	28
2025-03-28	4.22	4.47	-27.40	82216	Downward Expansion	-27	23
2025-03-21	4.25	4.53	-27.97	144954	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2025-03-14	4.14	4.59	-29.64	324455	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-03-07	4.52	4.66	-23.46	591756	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2025-02-28	3.74	4.70	-37.02	108826	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2025-02-21	3.92	4.78	-34.17	389550	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2025-02-14	3.62	4.86	-39.07	324214	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2025-02-07	3.67	4.95	-37.60	341685	Downward Expansion	-85	83
2025-01-31	4.05	5.04	-30.91	282413	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-01-24	4.28	5.10	-27.67	165335	Deceleration	-54	32
2025-01-17	4.48	5.15	-25.47	101203	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2025-01-10	4.72	5.20	-19.88	113014	Downward Expansion	-13	22
2025-01-03	4.88	5.24	-16.15	79194	Downward Expansion	-23	29
2024-12-27	4.90	5.29	-16.94	82772	Downward Expansion	-30	29
2024-12-20	4.74	5.34	-19.75	226512	Downward Expansion	-38	30
2024-12-13	4.81	5.40	-22.29	597815	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2024-12-06	4.34	5.45	-30.43	175488	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2024-11-29	4.46	5.52	-26.72	281508	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-11-22	4.05	5.58	-34.61	741986	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2024-11-15	3.93	5.65	-38.80	661446	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2024-11-08	4.04	5.71	-37.36	309582	Downward Expansion	-85	90
2024-11-01	4.16	5.78	-37.94	294874	Downward Expansion	-87	91
2024-10-25	4.62	5.85	-32.23	164060	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-10-18	4.67	5.89	-33.11	114384	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2024-10-11	4.74	5.92	-31.22	241142	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2024-10-04	4.82	5.93	-29.43	161396	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2024-09-27	5.25	5.95	-26.43	114205	Rotation Down	-70	80
2024-09-20	5.05	5.96	-27.95	201472	Rotation Down	-55	70
2024-09-13	5.41	5.98	-23.34	381670	Balance	-46	54
2024-09-06	5.57	6.02	-21.33	99531	Balance	-33	37
2024-08-30	6.04	6.04	-18.36	29088	Balance	-9	13
2024-08-23	6.04	6.09	-17.50	50054	Balance	-9	12
2024-08-16	6.10	6.14	-15.98	19245	Balance	-13	15
2024-08-09	5.92	6.18	-16.00	47671	Balance	-30	12
2024-08-02	6.10	6.24	-14.88	44914	Balance	-16	14
2024-07-26	6.20	6.31	-18.74	43387	Balance	-13	13
2024-07-19	6.36	6.37	-18.27	46066	Balance	-9	5
2024-07-12	6.35	6.43	-19.94	77017	Balance	-26	20
2024-07-05	6.02	6.47	-23.48	92527	Balance	-41	35
2024-06-28	5.73	6.54	-26.11	161907	Balance	-50	36
2024-06-21	5.92	6.61	-24.87	165730	Balance	-40	23
2024-06-14	5.93	6.68	-24.25	221121	Balance	-23	13
2024-06-07	6.41	6.75	-23.73	72685	Balance	-7	16
2024-05-31	6.54	6.79	-22.66	73112	Balance	-3	14
2024-05-24	6.53	6.82	-23.63	144768	Balance	-6	14
2024-05-17	6.31	6.82	-28.82	294191	Downward Expansion	-19	16
2024-05-10	6.20	6.85	-29.30	210925	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2024-05-03	6.33	6.89	-26.44	65988	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-04-26	6.11	6.92	-30.98	170957	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2024-04-19	5.83	6.96	-34.20	140871	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2024-04-12	6.06	7.04	-32.03	429356	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2024-04-05	6.35	7.12	-30.10	884366	Downward Expansion	-52	48
2024-03-29	5.77	7.19	-38.56	445830	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-03-22	5.66	7.28	-39.85	739450	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2024-03-15	5.03	7.36	-46.75	691909	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-03-08	5.34	7.47	-43.45	853575	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2024-03-01	5.50	7.56	-41.73	1085402	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2024-02-23	5.83	7.65	-38.64	545866	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2024-02-16	6.44	7.73	-31.01	256808	Downward Expansion	-86	88
2024-02-09	6.35	7.79	-31.47	675615	Downward Expansion	-89	82
2024-02-02	7.45	7.86	-19.39	94888	Balance	-48	45
2024-01-26	7.50	7.89	-18.50	79657	Balance	-43	28
2024-01-19	7.41	7.94	-19.76	76648	Balance	-42	19
2024-01-12	7.72	8.00	-17.51	59590	Balance	-21	14
2024-01-05	8.06	8.04	-14.37	38653	Balance	-3	13
2023-12-29	8.18	8.07	-13.34	74175	Balance	2	10
2023-12-22	7.90	8.10	-16.92	95245	Balance	-10	11
2023-12-15	7.82	8.12	-18.41	95981	Balance	-9	14
2023-12-08	7.96	8.14	-17.86	45112	Downward Expansion	-17	20
2023-12-01	7.99	8.18	-17.03	43785	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2023-11-24	7.98	8.20	-16.35	94299	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2023-11-17	7.84	8.23	-18.46	67788	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2023-11-10	7.59	8.26	-18.76	26430	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2023-11-03	7.49	8.32	-20.79	95177	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2023-10-27	6.59	8.39	-27.28	250887	Downward Expansion	-85	84
2023-10-20	7.27	8.50	-20.74	29649	Downward Expansion	-71	81

Price vs TrendAbove+27.3%

Trend directionRising+10.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+77.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+23.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+33.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+15.0%

Price momentumPositive+58.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.63×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

82 / ±100

+49.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

81 /100

+61.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CY4 Directional State ↗ CY4 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance20

Rotation Up78

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration45

Rotation Down9

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+4.8%
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	+7.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-09-04	Established	+12.3%
Deceleration	2026-01-23	2026-05-08	Established	+9.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2026-01-16	Established	+50.1%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	-1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+1.9%
Deceleration	2025-07-25	2025-08-15	New	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-07-18	Developing	+0.7%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-06-06	New	-1.3%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	+19.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-05-09	Established	+3.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-24	2025-01-24	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-01-17	Established	-7.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: 33.25
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +58.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +53.7%
Technology regime cohort: 75th percentile8 in cohort

Test CY4 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.87×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.63×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CY4 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 10.69rising

Slow Activity EUR 9.54rising

Trend Reference EUR 8.98+27.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 6.44+77.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 7.13shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.2%

Annualized volatility +44.6%

From structural high -3.1%

From structural low +95.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+4.9%-11.3% to +23.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+3.3%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+6.4%-16.3% to +58.4%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-1.5%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+13.5%-21.8% to +66.2%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-4.8%	+66.7%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+25.6%-37.5% to +88.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.2%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CY4 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map