Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Energy

LB Stage Analysis

LandBridge Company LLC

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 81.38Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 57โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 39/100directional strength
Maturity 39/100lifecycle context
Confidence 81/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +31.0%USD 62.14 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 118 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2581.3874.4210.211122996Upward Expansion5739
2026-09-1885.9674.1818.431225165Upward Expansion6262
2026-09-1186.8573.5920.41717635Upward Expansion6573
2026-09-0486.5372.8619.831121167Upward Expansion6670
2026-08-2886.9471.8721.311312974Upward Expansion7164
2026-08-2189.5970.8826.401978985Upward Expansion7958
2026-08-1478.5869.9010.111901377Upward Expansion5937
2026-08-0775.3069.306.132199534Upward Expansion5650
2026-07-3177.4268.4613.331131690Upward Expansion5960
2026-07-2476.2367.4913.151237963Upward Expansion5655
2026-07-1777.6766.6814.96990992Balance6050
2026-07-1076.6965.8312.121637129Balance5626
2026-07-0373.7565.119.422365415Balance2914
2026-06-2665.1264.63-1.472755445Balance711
2026-06-1963.9564.35-5.961298108Upward Expansion87
2026-06-1269.2964.122.181319497Upward Expansion4635
2026-06-0570.2864.293.611613652Upward Expansion4841
2026-05-2970.0764.240.131815989Upward Expansion4835
2026-05-2278.5063.8713.132328311Deceleration6836
2026-05-1569.6063.220.541564062Deceleration3516
2026-05-0864.8862.70-7.012090362Deceleration2616
2026-05-0165.9662.15-3.941354558Deceleration3118
2026-04-2468.1861.84-0.73818587Deceleration3419
2026-04-1767.1261.37-2.441231507Deceleration3823
2026-04-1067.9060.842.392112114Upward Expansion4228
2026-04-0369.1260.357.481955112Upward Expansion5741
2026-03-2771.9059.7715.351463855Upward Expansion6155
2026-03-2070.8459.1310.833447297Upward Expansion6573
2026-03-1374.6758.5614.111723062Upward Expansion7381
2026-03-0672.2757.788.442182877Upward Expansion7379
2026-02-2774.2657.088.993384495Upward Expansion8277
2026-02-2068.3056.44-0.422123906Upward Expansion7565
2026-02-1365.0456.03-4.292873780Balance5540
2026-02-0656.5455.71-18.183082359Balance1517
2026-01-3057.2855.80-17.702669169Balance1111
2026-01-2360.3056.10-13.442006182Balance158
2026-01-1660.5056.33-14.112097191Downward Expansion-2921
2026-01-0950.3256.59-29.323267492Downward Expansion-5052
2026-01-0248.3057.32-31.772760927Downward Expansion-5750
2025-12-2651.79โ€”โ€”895592Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1952.32โ€”โ€”2331584Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1255.03โ€”โ€”1418371Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0559.39โ€”โ€”1447841Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2856.67โ€”โ€”1429383Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2157.13โ€”โ€”4718812Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1474.18โ€”โ€”2720278Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0768.82โ€”โ€”1673861Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3158.88โ€”โ€”1492972Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2459.24โ€”โ€”1550547Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1753.78โ€”โ€”1979829Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1048.62โ€”โ€”2122502Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0356.39โ€”โ€”2569688Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2654.28โ€”โ€”2569012Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1951.10โ€”โ€”1775125Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1253.14โ€”โ€”1729338Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0551.82โ€”โ€”1454345Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2952.79โ€”โ€”1283410Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2253.73โ€”โ€”2730834Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1551.16โ€”โ€”3452520Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0851.21โ€”โ€”3596670Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0155.02โ€”โ€”3136019Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2556.04โ€”โ€”6921392Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1855.41โ€”โ€”3270386Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1159.29โ€”โ€”2262916Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0466.42โ€”โ€”2244293Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2767.13โ€”โ€”2414449Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2068.37โ€”โ€”1490290Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1372.01โ€”โ€”2061460Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0672.88โ€”โ€”1699452Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3070.87โ€”โ€”1846733Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2377.78โ€”โ€”2455852Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1683.81โ€”โ€”2002238Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0969.59โ€”โ€”2167023Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0277.80โ€”โ€”1883905Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2571.42โ€”โ€”1564538Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1868.49โ€”โ€”1117107Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1165.16โ€”โ€”3151796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0459.16โ€”โ€”4351939Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2869.12โ€”โ€”4093408Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2176.43โ€”โ€”3148820Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1471.98โ€”โ€”2279110Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0767.17โ€”โ€”3915241Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2868.51โ€”โ€”2736850Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2164.58โ€”โ€”2314597Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1469.32โ€”โ€”2365865Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0764.78โ€”โ€”3716333Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3164.24โ€”โ€”6630447Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2476.94โ€”โ€”2917358Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1774.02โ€”โ€”1740440Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1072.98โ€”โ€”2659176Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0369.32โ€”โ€”2097517Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2764.17โ€”โ€”1290981Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2057.72โ€”โ€”2555509Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1359.64โ€”โ€”2128197Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0663.49โ€”โ€”2977234Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2975.15โ€”โ€”2416873Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2276.60โ€”โ€”4111787Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1568.10โ€”โ€”2388960Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0874.66โ€”โ€”2449592Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0155.66โ€”โ€”1183466Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2551.65โ€”โ€”1774596Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1854.06โ€”โ€”1830367Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1148.47โ€”โ€”1210304Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0445.14โ€”โ€”2187825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2739.36โ€”โ€”2198617Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2038.24โ€”โ€”1149835Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1337.57โ€”โ€”1333851Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0634.35โ€”โ€”1003966Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3036.63โ€”โ€”1534321Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2341.57โ€”โ€”2016647Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1635.43โ€”โ€”1276144Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0932.24โ€”โ€”1125639Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0231.50โ€”โ€”1625306Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2629.79โ€”โ€”1424986Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1928.53โ€”โ€”2750554Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1230.44โ€”โ€”2200796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0528.18โ€”โ€”2543571Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2822.89โ€”โ€”3203390Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+9.4%
Trend directionRising+11.6%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+31.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+22.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.2%
Relative strength directionImproving+11.7%
Price momentumPositive+13.2%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.30ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

57 / ยฑ100

-13.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

39 /100

-25.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance15
Rotation Up50
Upward Expansion78
Deceleration63
Rotation Down23
Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-06-28 to 2026-09-25 ยท 39 classified observations out of 118 shown.

Balance 21%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 15%Downward Expansion 8%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-07-242026-09-25Developing+6.8%
Balance2026-06-262026-07-17New+19.3%
Upward Expansion2026-05-292026-06-19New-8.7%
Deceleration2026-04-172026-05-22Developing+17.0%
Upward Expansion2026-02-202026-04-10Developing-0.6%
Balance2026-01-232026-02-13New+7.9%
Downward Expansion2026-01-022026-01-16New+25.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing27
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution45
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2B ยท Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
85/100
Current Relative Strength
10.21
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+13.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-8.8%
Energy regime cohort
34th percentile82 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.71ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.30ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 84.75rising
Slow Activity USD 77.35rising
Trend Reference USD 74.42+9.4% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 62.14+31.0% close margin
Structural low USD 59.59shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +9.8%
Annualized volatility +41.0%
From structural high -11.1%
From structural low +86.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term5-4.1%-7.1% to +17.5%+40.0%+40.0%-3.7%+60.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+19.5%+14.9% to +24.1%+100.0%+100.0%+14.4%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+31.2%+31.2% to +31.2%+100.0%+100.0%+19.8%+100.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context