Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Defensive

HELE Stage Analysis

Helen of Troy Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 26.51Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 9−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 9/100directional strength

Maturity 39/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -50.6%USD 53.63 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	26.51	25.20	4.33	4394550	Deceleration	9	9
2026-10-02	26.74	24.86	5.49	2150439	Deceleration	14	12
2026-09-25	28.63	24.52	13.18	2137130	Deceleration	34	18
2026-09-18	26.84	24.15	9.34	2154959	Deceleration	31	18
2026-09-11	26.81	23.88	10.18	1407218	Upward Expansion	37	22
2026-09-04	28.40	23.57	15.81	2021294	Upward Expansion	52	35
2026-08-28	28.62	23.25	16.79	1790403	Upward Expansion	56	42
2026-08-21	29.06	22.85	18.87	1566257	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-08-14	30.22	22.49	20.41	1416773	Upward Expansion	67	51
2026-08-07	29.77	22.12	20.02	1927678	Upward Expansion	68	47
2026-07-31	27.63	21.77	17.26	1715136	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-07-24	28.47	21.54	21.57	2388624	Upward Expansion	63	44
2026-07-17	28.10	21.29	18.00	2659807	Upward Expansion	62	45
2026-07-10	26.34	21.04	6.07	4874494	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-07-03	28.14	20.86	15.08	1812422	Upward Expansion	65	55
2026-06-26	28.38	20.61	15.80	3046822	Upward Expansion	69	56
2026-06-19	26.47	20.30	2.48	2301536	Upward Expansion	62	56
2026-06-12	29.86	20.03	17.71	2544507	Upward Expansion	84	74
2026-06-05	24.34	19.65	-2.38	2479531	Upward Expansion	64	61
2026-05-29	27.14	19.49	2.92	2207213	Upward Expansion	82	86
2026-05-22	25.65	19.20	-0.73	3301998	Upward Expansion	78	86
2026-05-15	22.61	19.03	-12.18	3166708	Rotation Up	65	80
2026-05-08	24.71	18.91	-5.67	3871787	Rotation Up	42	66
2026-05-01	23.93	18.77	-4.69	3661684	Rotation Up	43	48
2026-04-24	23.62	18.85	-5.56	6412517	Rotation Up	27	28
2026-04-17	18.86	18.91	-23.91	2918100	Downward Expansion	-31	24
2026-04-10	16.73	19.04	-29.99	2563448	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2026-04-03	14.60	19.28	-37.67	2526877	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2026-03-27	13.88	19.65	-40.70	2451623	Downward Expansion	-78	77
2026-03-20	14.85	20.01	-41.08	2875556	Downward Expansion	-76	66
2026-03-13	16.47	20.31	-38.27	2870621	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2026-03-06	16.47	20.53	-40.96	2381508	Downward Expansion	-67	42
2026-02-27	17.64	20.71	-39.76	2951362	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2026-02-20	18.52	20.84	-38.86	2357777	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2026-02-13	17.64	21.03	-42.90	2967917	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2026-02-06	18.76	21.17	-41.71	4110179	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2026-01-30	16.56	21.30	-50.94	4728933	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2026-01-23	18.30	21.84	-47.58	2856399	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2026-01-16	19.04	22.17	-47.09	4600108	Downward Expansion	-55	29
2026-01-09	19.40	22.43	-48.18	6255514	Downward Expansion	-42	20
2026-01-02	20.61	22.68	-45.34	2669439	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2025-12-26	21.14	22.93	-46.25	2179661	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2025-12-19	20.42	23.12	-48.73	9375867	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-12-12	21.00	23.31	-48.34	4307630	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-12-05	20.72	23.63	-51.34	3200548	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2025-11-28	18.95	23.85	-56.36	3723909	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-11-21	18.45	24.16	-56.76	2856716	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-11-14	18.50	24.50	-59.15	3689125	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2025-11-07	19.40	25.00	-58.31	4166417	Downward Expansion	-63	75
2025-10-31	18.63	25.50	-62.06	4362555	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2025-10-24	20.41	26.37	-58.69	3821311	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2025-10-17	18.96	27.49	-61.69	6442641	Downward Expansion	-74	51
2025-10-10	20.60	28.62	-58.40	9192030	Downward Expansion	-67	37
2025-10-03	26.44	29.68	-49.11	3430246	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2025-09-26	25.44	30.69	-51.37	3974474	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-09-19	22.63	31.68	-57.72	3797077	Downward Expansion	-46	29
2025-09-12	24.12	32.88	-54.81	3071942	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2025-09-05	25.57	33.96	-52.04	3001686	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2025-08-29	24.55	34.99	-54.24	3085401	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-08-22	24.11	36.23	-55.81	4082569	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-08-15	23.07	37.65	-58.69	3214907	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2025-08-08	21.81	39.03	-61.29	2442335	Downward Expansion	-69	73
2025-08-01	21.57	40.37	-60.91	3158054	Downward Expansion	-74	73
2025-07-25	24.11	41.61	-57.97	5180142	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-07-18	21.94	42.83	-62.02	9496111	Downward Expansion	-78	62
2025-07-11	22.55	44.19	-61.06	10202501	Downward Expansion	-80	59
2025-07-04	32.66	45.72	-44.71	2895831	Downward Expansion	-50	47
2025-06-27	28.34	47.05	-52.35	2584566	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2025-06-20	26.73	48.55	-54.35	2092767	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-06-13	27.06	49.99	-55.01	3344272	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2025-06-06	27.99	51.25	-54.91	2532868	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-05-30	26.89	52.40	-56.95	2726692	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2025-05-23	26.24	53.67	-58.42	3092827	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2025-05-16	30.49	54.94	-54.10	4053239	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2025-05-09	27.28	56.19	-57.29	5337674	Downward Expansion	-77	92
2025-05-02	28.21	57.67	-57.03	3670759	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2025-04-25	28.61	58.82	-55.97	6051838	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2025-04-18	33.69	59.92	-45.98	2826097	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2025-04-11	34.28	60.79	-47.47	4493800	Downward Expansion	-92	92
2025-04-04	44.76	61.58	-27.76	2514824	Downward Expansion	-82	75
2025-03-28	54.02	61.92	-22.79	1893045	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2025-03-21	52.85	61.90	-27.59	2901576	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2025-03-14	52.45	61.91	-29.24	2257206	Rotation Down	-71	65
2025-03-07	56.73	61.88	-26.83	2101385	Rotation Down	-32	51
2025-02-28	55.03	61.77	-32.70	2314334	Rotation Down	-41	60
2025-02-21	58.80	61.80	-31.95	2095806	Rotation Down	-29	49
2025-02-14	56.53	61.81	-37.34	1978448	Balance	-28	33
2025-02-07	56.32	61.82	-37.06	1748121	Balance	-29	19
2025-01-31	61.78	62.07	-32.09	1761718	Balance	5	5
2025-01-24	66.75	62.95	-28.87	1385049	Balance	17	14
2025-01-17	64.44	63.82	-31.54	2352112	Balance	-23	29
2025-01-10	61.98	64.96	-33.38	3665513	Balance	-42	37
2025-01-03	58.87	66.18	-39.24	1710131	Balance	-41	33
2024-12-27	60.54	67.58	-39.12	941313	Balance	-31	18
2024-12-20	62.78	69.13	-37.43	1926775	Balance	-5	13
2024-12-13	68.42	70.53	-34.49	1792308	Balance	2	22
2024-12-06	72.70	71.88	-30.96	1638742	Balance	11	25
2024-11-29	73.33	72.87	-29.06	1635443	Balance	12	18
2024-11-22	69.92	73.64	-32.73	2604511	Deceleration	3	6
2024-11-15	64.92	74.35	-37.16	1758874	Deceleration	-26	22
2024-11-08	62.48	75.52	-42.32	1792228	Deceleration	-16	15
2024-11-01	64.78	76.76	-37.72	1759282	Deceleration	-10	24
2024-10-25	64.54	78.14	-39.75	1743298	Deceleration	-13	25
2024-10-18	68.04	79.83	-37.22	2803211	Downward Expansion	-16	28
2024-10-11	71.54	81.31	-34.73	6705448	Downward Expansion	-28	31
2024-10-04	62.78	82.82	-42.82	2226966	Downward Expansion	-41	35
2024-09-27	61.69	84.88	-44.56	2690001	Downward Expansion	-47	47
2024-09-20	59.67	86.97	-46.72	8042008	Downward Expansion	-51	55
2024-09-13	58.02	89.16	-48.29	2733587	Downward Expansion	-55	60
2024-09-06	54.82	91.30	-49.05	2228970	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-08-30	53.38	93.35	-53.96	1706692	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2024-08-23	53.36	95.47	-55.09	2577917	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2024-08-16	51.52	97.81	-56.94	4042153	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2024-08-09	53.28	100.02	-53.86	2146231	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2024-08-02	56.09	102.29	-52.05	3133959	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-07-26	58.98	104.29	-52.00	3659140	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2024-07-19	56.75	106.35	-55.79	4118809	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2024-07-12	64.07	108.50	-52.88	9442004	Downward Expansion	-96	96
2024-07-05	88.06	110.28	-36.35	1185107	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2024-06-28	92.74	111.01	-31.21	1190239	Downward Expansion	-74	59
2024-06-21	98.85	111.59	-27.22	825572	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2024-06-14	98.40	111.79	-27.73	903708	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2024-06-07	101.05	111.94	-23.50	856496	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2024-05-31	106.88	111.87	-17.24	857025	Downward Expansion	-37	26
2024-05-24	104.78	111.73	-20.38	1054145	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2024-05-17	108.88	111.45	-16.47	1735936	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2024-05-10	102.40	111.27	-19.98	1599616	Rotation Down	-66	77
2024-05-03	96.54	111.59	-23.78	2465120	Rotation Down	-43	76
2024-04-26	91.21	111.99	-27.66	4120944	Rotation Down	-61	81
2024-04-19	100.00	112.84	-18.11	1714224	Rotation Down	-42	69
2024-04-12	99.85	113.37	-22.82	1322534	Rotation Down	-44	61
2024-04-05	106.01	113.95	-18.75	1072092	Upward Expansion	-33	34
2024-03-29	115.24	114.25	-12.62	755206	Upward Expansion	21	17
2024-03-22	112.52	114.49	-15.35	1108397	Upward Expansion	22	12
2024-03-15	116.91	114.77	-9.62	973365	Upward Expansion	54	40
2024-03-08	124.36	114.94	-5.16	686423	Upward Expansion	59	53
2024-03-01	124.37	114.95	-6.99	734120	Balance	60	46
2024-02-23	125.57	115.37	-4.85	621751	Balance	36	25
2024-02-16	122.07	115.91	-6.73	1102700	Balance	32	22
2024-02-09	116.52	116.34	-12.88	854270	Balance	13	14
2024-02-02	116.84	116.73	-11.45	1089774	Rotation Up	26	24
2024-01-26	123.44	116.59	-6.01	901225	Rotation Up	29	28
2024-01-19	117.88	116.07	-10.16	975099	Rotation Up	20	32
2024-01-12	121.43	115.42	-5.42	1493661	Rotation Up	27	47
2024-01-05	115.98	114.62	-7.35	1015731	Rotation Up	20	33
2023-12-29	120.81	114.07	-7.20	604592	Rotation Up	26	33
2023-12-22	121.29	113.32	-7.22	1195957	Deceleration	28	30
2023-12-15	117.50	112.62	-9.77	2264646	Deceleration	-11	18
2023-12-08	109.93	111.94	-13.11	1494747	Deceleration	-37	22
2023-12-01	110.33	111.54	-12.67	933571	Deceleration	-18	21
2023-11-24	104.72	111.17	-17.37	635219	Rotation Down	-33	36
2023-11-17	102.84	111.02	-18.42	959505	Rotation Down	-38	60
2023-11-10	98.91	110.51	-20.27	939543	Rotation Down	-47	70
2023-11-03	102.65	110.17	-15.31	1426207	Rotation Down	-29	61
2023-10-27	96.58	109.73	-15.43	1387457	Rotation Down	-48	68
2023-10-20	103.42	109.69	-12.12	2074424	Deceleration	-38	49

Price vs TrendAbove+5.2%

Trend directionRising+15.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-50.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+4.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.7%

Price momentumPositive+58.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.84×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

9 / ±100

-27.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

9 /100

-12.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HELE Directional State ↗ HELE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance62

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion42

Deceleration83

Rotation Down31

Downward Expansion32

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-1.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-09-11	Established	+4.5%
Rotation Up	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-4.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2026-04-17	Extended	-64.3%
Rotation Down	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-10.8%
Balance	2024-11-29	2025-02-14	Developing	-22.9%
Deceleration	2024-10-25	2024-11-22	Developing	+8.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-10-18	Established	-37.5%
Rotation Down	2024-04-12	2024-05-10	Developing	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-08	2024-04-05	Developing	-14.8%
Balance	2024-02-09	2024-03-01	New	+6.7%
Rotation Up	2023-12-29	2024-02-02	Developing	-3.3%
Deceleration	2023-12-01	2023-12-22	New	+9.9%
Rotation Down	2023-10-27	2023-11-24	Developing	+8.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing47

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution30

Stage 4 · Declining3

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 58/100
Current Relative Strength: 4.33
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +58.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +35.5%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 38th percentile13 in cohort

Test HELE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.87×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.84×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HELE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 27.06falling

Slow Activity USD 27.17rising

Trend Reference USD 25.20+5.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 53.63-50.6% close margin

Structural low USD 16.32shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +11.6%

Annualized volatility +61.3%

From structural high -17.1%

From structural low +91.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	-0.6%-11.5% to +9.5%	+44.4%	+44.4%	-3.9%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.0%-11.3% to +38.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-1.6%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-8.4%-55.7% to +3.6%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-14.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-55.8%-68.4% to -2.6%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-38.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HELE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map