Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

AEM Stage Analysis

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 189.02Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 11−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +59.8%USD 118.26 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	189.02	182.21	-6.79	7942869	Rotation Up	11	12
2026-10-02	183.69	182.81	-8.44	9987133	Rotation Up	16	18
2026-09-25	194.48	184.04	-3.38	7602594	Rotation Up	31	34
2026-09-18	199.49	185.90	0.40	9600569	Rotation Up	27	54
2026-09-11	200.36	186.83	0.89	6109140	Rotation Up	30	63
2026-09-04	204.73	187.34	2.51	15802545	Rotation Up	32	61
2026-08-28	205.77	187.04	3.38	16422082	Rotation Up	36	48
2026-08-21	215.56	186.50	9.17	20956566	Rotation Up	24	36
2026-08-14	186.03	186.44	-6.59	16044313	Downward Expansion	-17	19
2026-08-07	178.41	186.79	-10.07	18596781	Downward Expansion	-42	37
2026-07-31	144.93	187.19	-24.27	12243032	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2026-07-24	145.13	188.02	-23.38	13067288	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2026-07-17	136.97	189.26	-28.13	12135721	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2026-07-10	146.87	190.48	-24.15	11969819	Downward Expansion	-77	80
2026-07-03	153.86	191.16	-19.44	12018502	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2026-06-26	157.23	191.64	-15.80	14550994	Downward Expansion	-73	77
2026-06-19	166.66	192.17	-12.70	15431520	Rotation Down	-65	69
2026-06-12	162.64	191.92	-13.89	16953848	Rotation Down	-45	62
2026-06-05	163.66	192.06	-12.79	13113077	Rotation Down	-47	60
2026-05-29	182.68	191.95	-4.91	8903928	Rotation Down	-20	43
2026-05-22	175.46	191.19	-7.05	9553636	Rotation Down	-27	45
2026-05-15	179.87	190.75	-3.65	10380068	Deceleration	-23	28
2026-05-08	192.72	190.53	3.96	12515891	Deceleration	10	11
2026-05-01	183.09	189.55	1.51	12428735	Deceleration	6	6
2026-04-24	199.72	189.05	12.27	11659716	Deceleration	46	27
2026-04-17	219.54	187.81	24.70	8586840	Deceleration	47	26
2026-04-10	218.19	185.83	30.33	9242401	Deceleration	39	24
2026-04-03	208.01	183.63	29.74	11148635	Deceleration	28	24
2026-03-27	192.91	181.72	25.64	17252667	Deceleration	30	23
2026-03-20	178.67	180.05	14.79	20631780	Upward Expansion	29	25
2026-03-13	207.01	178.63	31.55	10350130	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-03-06	220.44	176.13	39.44	15611457	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-02-27	250.51	173.26	57.33	10790434	Upward Expansion	90	91
2026-02-20	227.27	169.05	44.46	9130448	Upward Expansion	82	64
2026-02-13	215.65	165.66	40.63	12923219	Upward Expansion	79	66
2026-02-06	195.75	162.36	27.76	16934646	Upward Expansion	62	67
2026-01-30	189.68	159.80	24.86	21210531	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-01-23	213.61	157.44	42.68	11827345	Upward Expansion	89	89
2026-01-16	196.63	154.15	32.79	13131269	Upward Expansion	79	75
2026-01-09	190.31	151.59	29.74	12030502	Upward Expansion	75	58
2026-01-02	169.71	149.36	18.95	8669205	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-12-26	182.42	147.60	27.85	7500726	Upward Expansion	72	50
2025-12-19	173.46	145.41	24.85	16962716	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-12-12	167.54	143.50	22.16	12724337	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-12-05	168.10	141.42	23.13	9820684	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-11-28	173.27	139.68	28.69	7334507	Deceleration	69	45
2025-11-21	158.94	137.56	23.79	11134956	Deceleration	44	33
2025-11-14	167.00	136.16	28.85	12231786	Upward Expansion	55	42
2025-11-07	160.34	134.60	25.38	10752692	Upward Expansion	51	48
2025-10-31	159.74	133.12	24.13	17337544	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-10-24	162.27	131.07	28.11	15843316	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-10-17	173.33	129.20	40.81	15363235	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-10-10	163.29	126.85	36.59	14777915	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-10-03	168.30	124.82	39.04	13953921	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-09-26	162.34	122.46	37.29	15865769	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-09-19	160.12	120.22	36.56	22234102	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-09-12	152.23	118.03	32.83	13733603	Upward Expansion	86	94
2025-09-05	150.84	116.10	34.95	14596706	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-08-29	142.83	114.29	29.54	10047197	Upward Expansion	86	90
2025-08-22	135.98	112.58	24.37	11130271	Upward Expansion	77	84
2025-08-15	132.11	110.99	22.09	11629805	Upward Expansion	74	79
2025-08-08	134.35	109.38	26.29	13425695	Upward Expansion	81	71
2025-08-01	124.05	107.66	20.54	14839912	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-07-25	125.67	106.19	20.00	15853143	Upward Expansion	70	44
2025-07-18	116.63	104.57	13.92	10415122	Upward Expansion	43	27
2025-07-11	118.76	103.25	17.47	11229442	Upward Expansion	57	36
2025-07-04	118.94	102.03	18.14	7744225	Upward Expansion	58	40
2025-06-27	115.04	100.81	17.12	15897497	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-06-20	119.89	99.74	27.35	10427023	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-06-13	123.30	98.49	32.10	13254586	Upward Expansion	72	51
2025-06-06	116.87	96.89	26.16	15912559	Upward Expansion	60	39
2025-05-30	116.89	95.73	29.52	11426485	Upward Expansion	65	42
2025-05-23	116.13	94.63	32.13	18622842	Upward Expansion	65	41
2025-05-16	105.10	93.59	17.67	23427979	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-05-09	115.83	92.90	37.37	16926137	Upward Expansion	66	58
2025-05-02	109.71	91.63	30.84	17882490	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-04-25	117.01	90.54	44.93	24764674	Upward Expansion	73	65
2025-04-18	119.99	89.31	57.24	15112531	Upward Expansion	87	70
2025-04-11	116.16	88.03	52.12	32718233	Upward Expansion	88	67
2025-04-04	98.22	86.87	37.77	21368013	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-03-28	106.00	86.10	36.64	10471066	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-03-21	103.02	85.22	32.27	11163097	Upward Expansion	80	75
2025-03-14	102.29	84.48	33.45	15817399	Upward Expansion	83	72
2025-03-07	97.54	83.67	25.68	11968029	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-02-28	95.06	82.82	19.83	14031278	Upward Expansion	69	80
2025-02-21	94.49	82.09	19.09	11612959	Upward Expansion	70	83
2025-02-14	94.25	81.32	17.95	15293619	Upward Expansion	74	83
2025-02-07	96.70	80.59	23.94	13558645	Upward Expansion	85	84
2025-01-31	91.38	79.81	18.15	9534739	Upward Expansion	75	71
2025-01-24	88.43	79.03	14.14	8376452	Deceleration	67	55
2025-01-17	83.61	78.20	10.57	6350187	Deceleration	42	20
2025-01-10	82.89	77.53	13.55	6838959	Deceleration	27	15
2025-01-03	79.72	76.85	7.68	5029656	Deceleration	15	13
2024-12-27	77.33	76.27	4.32	4272222	Deceleration	10	9
2024-12-20	76.85	75.90	4.64	11449990	Deceleration	24	15
2024-12-13	82.32	75.53	10.30	8845420	Deceleration	53	33
2024-12-06	82.19	75.05	9.90	6683462	Deceleration	41	21
2024-11-29	83.01	74.51	12.43	6509965	Deceleration	46	24
2024-11-22	82.50	73.85	13.47	9795567	Upward Expansion	47	27
2024-11-15	75.12	73.21	5.59	15897229	Upward Expansion	34	29
2024-11-08	82.05	72.77	13.37	12640560	Upward Expansion	61	62
2024-11-01	83.97	72.01	22.19	11742775	Upward Expansion	67	62
2024-10-25	85.02	71.22	22.75	15987163	Upward Expansion	75	54
2024-10-18	84.33	70.31	21.22	10706248	Upward Expansion	77	50
2024-10-11	77.76	69.29	13.29	8571930	Upward Expansion	48	39
2024-10-04	77.13	68.51	14.15	11776222	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-09-27	80.07	67.69	19.45	11988346	Upward Expansion	64	53
2024-09-20	81.35	66.63	22.80	13401952	Upward Expansion	72	60
2024-09-13	81.39	65.50	25.29	10194302	Upward Expansion	76	67
2024-09-06	75.25	64.32	21.24	7615254	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-08-30	79.73	63.30	23.91	9096040	Upward Expansion	75	77
2024-08-23	80.62	62.20	26.46	11585837	Upward Expansion	86	75
2024-08-16	77.91	61.09	24.78	10480183	Upward Expansion	83	66
2024-08-09	72.21	60.08	21.09	14539688	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-08-02	73.15	59.35	23.33	11806066	Upward Expansion	72	84
2024-07-26	71.48	58.60	18.63	8853626	Upward Expansion	68	83
2024-07-19	72.23	57.97	19.37	9145884	Upward Expansion	76	80
2024-07-12	73.15	57.33	18.96	10707426	Deceleration	83	63
2024-07-05	67.97	56.62	11.96	5577690	Deceleration	72	46
2024-06-28	63.69	56.00	7.23	7655182	Deceleration	40	28
2024-06-21	63.52	55.62	7.06	12010406	Deceleration	45	36
2024-06-14	62.57	55.08	6.28	10709817	Upward Expansion	49	43
2024-06-07	62.13	54.53	7.36	14584993	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-05-31	66.43	53.96	16.28	9505912	Upward Expansion	69	66
2024-05-24	65.55	53.31	14.50	11358658	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-05-17	67.88	52.68	18.73	9963886	Upward Expansion	85	88
2024-05-10	66.22	52.00	17.86	13228348	Upward Expansion	85	88
2024-05-03	62.97	51.33	14.08	12404110	Upward Expansion	75	85
2024-04-26	63.43	50.67	15.30	19843263	Upward Expansion	83	92
2024-04-19	61.81	50.00	15.22	19742562	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-04-12	59.49	49.50	7.40	17607190	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-04-05	60.03	49.07	6.43	21650292	Upward Expansion	88	93
2024-03-29	57.75	48.58	1.21	10647805	Upward Expansion	84	86
2024-03-22	53.87	48.18	-5.39	14133831	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-03-15	54.16	47.87	-3.11	16752142	Balance	63	51
2024-03-08	52.77	47.53	-5.94	21546097	Balance	50	27
2024-03-01	48.04	47.31	-14.70	18164423	Rotation Down	-15	18
2024-02-23	47.65	47.24	-14.83	14690436	Rotation Down	-19	27
2024-02-16	45.90	47.27	-16.81	18896657	Upward Expansion	-22	32
2024-02-09	44.76	47.38	-19.35	14746332	Upward Expansion	-31	33
2024-02-02	46.68	47.55	-15.16	11707205	Upward Expansion	11	19
2024-01-26	47.41	47.51	-12.99	12077507	Upward Expansion	22	19
2024-01-19	47.37	47.51	-12.69	13522581	Upward Expansion	32	20
2024-01-12	50.48	47.48	-6.43	11656497	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-01-05	50.53	47.40	-5.00	11085404	Upward Expansion	62	63
2023-12-29	52.67	47.32	-2.96	7318353	Upward Expansion	69	73
2023-12-22	53.10	47.20	-2.11	11754433	Upward Expansion	75	76
2023-12-15	51.86	47.03	-3.80	18003062	Rotation Up	70	69
2023-12-08	49.20	46.99	-6.79	14389914	Rotation Up	30	47
2023-12-01	52.22	47.12	-1.07	21935707	Balance	39	43
2023-11-24	47.48	47.25	-9.40	7579922	Balance	-4	5
2023-11-17	46.11	47.44	-11.32	9493136	Balance	-17	8
2023-11-10	44.85	47.67	-11.90	12149267	Balance	-34	19
2023-11-03	47.14	48.00	-6.34	15774997	Balance	-9	14
2023-10-27	46.50	48.19	-2.21	16227035	Balance	-31	14
2023-10-20	47.46	48.24	-2.60	14224150	Downward Expansion	-31	22

Price vs TrendAbove+3.7%

Trend directionFalling-2.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+59.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+22.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.4%

Price momentumNegative-13.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.85×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

11 / ±100

-18.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-51.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AEM Directional State ↗ AEM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance60

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion32

Deceleration70

Rotation Down33

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 64%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-21	2026-10-09	Developing	-12.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-08-14	Developing	+18.3%
Rotation Down	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	-5.0%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-05-15	Developing	-6.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-03-20	Established	+6.3%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-11-14	Extended	+82.7%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2025-01-24	Developing	+6.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-11-22	Established	+14.2%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-07-12	New	+15.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-22	2024-06-14	Established	+16.2%
Balance	2024-03-08	2024-03-15	New	+2.6%
Rotation Down	2024-02-23	2024-03-01	New	+0.8%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-22	2024-02-16	Developing	-13.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing29

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining71

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 45/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.2%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test AEM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.61×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.85×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AEM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 190.84falling

Slow Activity USD 181.30rising

Trend Reference USD 182.21+3.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 118.26+59.8% close margin

Structural low USD 134.38shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +9.1%

Annualized volatility +50.3%

From structural high -25.8%

From structural low +40.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+6.4%-7.5% to +9.0%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+3.5%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-8.2%-15.3% to +7.3%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-4.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+4.0%-29.8% to +26.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-1.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+27.1%-12.9% to +67.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+15.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AEM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map