Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Defensive

1203 Stage Analysis

Ve Wong Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 42.75Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 1−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 9/100directional strength

Maturity 26/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -1.2%TWD 43.25 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	42.75	43.38	-25.05	90647	Deceleration	1	9
2026-10-02	42.90	43.25	-24.27	77780	Deceleration	1	7
2026-09-25	43.30	43.14	-23.66	56225	Deceleration	18	9
2026-09-18	45.95	43.07	-18.39	101590	Deceleration	43	19
2026-09-11	43.70	42.88	-21.45	79286	Deceleration	23	18
2026-09-04	44.70	42.74	-21.13	24655	Deceleration	29	24
2026-08-28	44.18	42.56	-22.45	13299	Upward Expansion	35	21
2026-08-21	43.94	42.41	-21.80	11250	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-08-14	43.45	42.27	-24.38	13881	Upward Expansion	60	54
2026-08-07	46.58	42.14	-16.85	15301	Upward Expansion	65	79
2026-07-31	47.85	41.91	-13.18	14008	Upward Expansion	81	83
2026-07-24	46.90	41.64	-16.66	32432	Upward Expansion	79	73
2026-07-17	45.95	41.41	-17.22	38072	Deceleration	75	51
2026-07-10	43.15	41.20	-27.55	0	Deceleration	48	26
2026-07-03	43.35	41.09	-30.24	77109	Deceleration	42	23
2026-06-26	42.50	40.97	-29.05	63803	Deceleration	37	21
2026-06-19	43.00	40.88	-31.87	113876	Deceleration	40	28
2026-06-12	42.80	40.76	-29.43	119193	Upward Expansion	43	29
2026-06-05	42.85	40.65	-31.49	64175	Upward Expansion	45	31
2026-05-29	43.55	40.54	-30.68	133080	Upward Expansion	63	43
2026-05-22	42.60	40.40	-29.07	165481	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-05-15	42.55	40.30	-28.07	119046	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-05-08	44.00	40.21	-27.23	134257	Upward Expansion	73	85
2026-05-01	43.60	40.07	-23.69	85266	Upward Expansion	74	84
2026-04-24	44.10	39.93	-23.59	177758	Upward Expansion	83	82
2026-04-17	43.40	39.77	-21.28	350254	Upward Expansion	77	63
2026-04-10	40.45	39.64	-24.49	72702	Balance	12	6
2026-04-03	39.40	39.62	-20.61	111453	Balance	-47	31
2026-03-27	39.55	39.59	-22.11	138181	Balance	-18	21
2026-03-20	38.55	39.55	-25.51	125268	Balance	-22	24
2026-03-13	38.60	39.55	-25.58	217413	Upward Expansion	7	7
2026-03-06	39.80	39.54	-24.13	168230	Upward Expansion	47	42
2026-02-27	41.25	39.50	-25.77	177871	Balance	72	55
2026-02-13	40.10	39.44	-24.29	114287	Balance	50	19
2026-02-06	39.45	39.42	-21.58	66529	Balance	12	9
2026-01-30	39.35	39.40	-22.71	44724	Balance	10	7
2026-01-23	39.75	39.40	-21.97	69469	Balance	31	13
2026-01-16	39.60	39.38	-21.21	98133	Upward Expansion	31	14
2026-01-09	39.65	39.31	-18.52	113244	Upward Expansion	34	17
2026-01-02	39.75	39.24	-16.05	28066	Upward Expansion	46	23
2025-12-26	39.75	39.16	-14.07	16623	Upward Expansion	48	27
2025-12-19	39.80	39.13	-11.62	90682	Upward Expansion	49	33
2025-12-12	39.80	39.13	-13.48	50077	Upward Expansion	50	35
2025-12-05	39.90	39.13	-12.95	38873	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-11-28	39.75	39.12	-12.59	82490	Upward Expansion	47	23
2025-11-21	39.80	39.05	-8.98	81807	Upward Expansion	39	18
2025-11-14	39.40	38.97	-13.42	89182	Upward Expansion	32	15
2025-11-07	39.40	38.91	-14.71	117233	Upward Expansion	35	17
2025-10-31	39.50	38.86	-16.89	66738	Upward Expansion	46	24
2025-10-24	39.50	38.77	-15.36	33129	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-10-17	39.50	38.69	-15.24	85717	Upward Expansion	51	34
2025-10-10	39.80	38.62	-15.17	31833	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-10-03	39.90	38.51	-13.88	240429	Balance	57	45
2025-09-26	39.25	38.39	-12.01	64812	Balance	48	41
2025-09-19	39.40	38.30	-12.32	98403	Balance	49	37
2025-09-12	39.55	38.19	-12.23	79476	Balance	49	28
2025-09-05	39.70	38.06	-9.08	152170	Balance	51	22
2025-08-29	38.62	37.92	-11.22	127451	Balance	25	13
2025-08-22	38.23	37.84	-11.09	83700	Upward Expansion	24	14
2025-08-15	38.72	37.77	-12.66	145873	Upward Expansion	33	15
2025-08-08	38.14	37.71	-13.56	133363	Upward Expansion	43	22
2025-08-01	38.81	37.70	-10.48	100716	Upward Expansion	52	36
2025-07-25	39.30	37.72	-9.70	116750	Upward Expansion	53	46
2025-07-18	39.49	37.69	-9.75	58885	Balance	56	48
2025-07-11	38.91	37.70	-8.96	109838	Balance	47	32
2025-07-04	39.25	37.76	-7.78	196395	Balance	39	18
2025-06-27	39.25	37.82	-8.30	207935	Balance	10	12
2025-06-20	37.50	37.93	-10.61	126758	Balance	-6	13
2025-06-13	37.41	38.09	-11.30	90852	Rotation Up	1	5
2025-06-06	37.41	38.37	-10.03	99654	Rotation Up	17	19
2025-05-30	38.86	38.71	-5.67	126389	Rotation Up	31	44
2025-05-23	39.69	38.97	-5.39	92391	Deceleration	28	44
2025-05-16	39.98	39.25	-5.95	209934	Deceleration	15	27
2025-05-09	39.69	39.49	-2.96	471098	Deceleration	11	18
2025-05-02	37.55	39.74	-8.01	180175	Deceleration	-18	15
2025-04-25	37.46	40.12	-4.48	143495	Deceleration	-22	15
2025-04-18	37.65	40.50	-2.00	301181	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2025-04-11	37.84	40.83	-2.45	403531	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2025-04-04	36.58	41.18	-13.88	101928	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2025-03-28	37.17	41.65	-14.29	121898	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2025-03-21	37.36	42.14	-16.75	183628	Downward Expansion	-48	46
2025-03-14	36.68	42.56	-18.01	197020	Downward Expansion	-52	54
2025-03-07	36.10	43.03	-22.08	613421	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2025-02-28	36.68	43.49	-23.27	347333	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-02-21	36.19	43.96	-27.23	162138	Downward Expansion	-68	81
2025-02-14	35.66	44.39	-27.35	228864	Downward Expansion	-72	84
2025-02-07	35.37	44.84	-29.84	145036	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2025-01-24	36.19	45.38	-29.26	39408	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2025-01-17	36.34	45.82	-28.70	69845	Downward Expansion	-80	81
2025-01-10	36.83	46.26	-28.23	175365	Downward Expansion	-81	82
2025-01-03	37.80	46.60	-26.96	85610	Downward Expansion	-79	83
2024-12-27	39.49	46.92	-25.82	60183	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2024-12-20	38.43	47.20	-26.18	83377	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2024-12-13	39.69	47.51	-26.17	196790	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2024-12-06	40.76	47.80	-25.45	107460	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-11-29	40.95	48.04	-22.62	242369	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2024-11-22	42.55	48.26	-22.43	85827	Downward Expansion	-77	78
2024-11-15	42.45	48.38	-22.59	253975	Balance	-81	71
2024-11-08	45.70	48.45	-20.01	46399	Balance	-38	37
2024-11-01	47.55	48.47	-14.31	87747	Balance	-23	23
2024-10-25	46.82	48.48	-17.89	68224	Balance	-29	32
2024-10-18	48.08	48.53	-16.49	90993	Balance	-13	24
2024-10-11	47.06	48.56	-16.46	90542	Balance	-20	30
2024-10-04	47.16	48.63	-14.25	49429	Balance	-21	24
2024-09-27	49.00	48.69	-13.11	142931	Balance	-8	15
2024-09-20	48.91	48.78	-10.87	82559	Balance	12	14
2024-09-13	47.35	48.88	-12.24	107082	Balance	12	9
2024-09-06	48.47	49.03	-8.92	150366	Balance	28	16
2024-08-30	50.60	49.19	-8.51	47885	Balance	51	35
2024-08-23	51.83	49.28	-5.86	71864	Balance	33	26
2024-08-16	50.13	49.32	-9.74	36453	Balance	22	20
2024-08-09	50.79	49.43	-4.87	143791	Balance	28	20
2024-08-02	49.75	49.55	-7.50	122442	Downward Expansion	13	14
2024-07-26	50.98	49.72	-7.29	92798	Downward Expansion	27	34
2024-07-19	48.89	49.82	-13.98	58744	Downward Expansion	-4	20
2024-07-12	49.37	49.88	-17.07	42868	Downward Expansion	-3	21
2024-07-05	51.36	49.92	-12.50	57496	Downward Expansion	11	21
2024-06-28	49.65	49.83	-13.65	103632	Downward Expansion	-6	9
2024-06-21	49.37	49.79	-15.19	278832	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2024-06-14	47.18	49.70	-16.46	60570	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2024-06-07	47.18	49.63	-14.16	52801	Balance	-38	20
2024-05-31	47.94	49.43	-10.09	76594	Balance	-33	21
2024-05-24	47.66	49.16	-12.27	53567	Deceleration	-9	13
2024-05-17	48.42	48.90	-9.65	124037	Deceleration	-14	15
2024-05-10	48.13	48.66	-7.85	41982	Rotation Down	-31	33
2024-05-03	47.42	48.38	-7.47	63275	Rotation Down	-36	53
2024-04-26	46.14	48.11	-8.97	65467	Rotation Down	-38	62
2024-04-19	44.62	47.88	-9.27	144660	Rotation Down	-48	68
2024-04-12	46.28	47.70	-11.36	112141	Deceleration	-41	56
2024-04-05	47.85	47.47	-6.56	5544	Deceleration	-11	28
2024-03-29	48.23	47.15	-5.53	63484	Deceleration	-8	26
2024-03-22	48.99	46.85	-3.64	167452	Deceleration	1	17
2024-03-15	49.37	46.49	-0.05	98059	Deceleration	13	19
2024-03-08	48.89	46.13	-1.33	149389	Deceleration	27	23
2024-03-01	51.74	45.77	9.32	97912	Deceleration	42	35
2024-02-23	51.83	45.35	10.27	104645	Deceleration	44	41
2024-02-16	51.83	44.93	12.41	54822	Upward Expansion	47	45
2024-02-09	53.26	44.53	19.31	13201	Upward Expansion	59	54
2024-02-02	53.35	44.02	20.50	134438	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-01-26	52.97	43.59	20.81	60259	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-01-19	53.35	43.24	24.53	341005	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-01-12	54.40	42.88	28.98	83006	Upward Expansion	75	75
2024-01-05	54.87	42.42	30.98	156127	Upward Expansion	86	91
2023-12-29	54.02	41.91	26.85	223726	Upward Expansion	90	95
2023-12-22	50.70	41.39	22.07	116867	Upward Expansion	79	92
2023-12-15	50.70	40.96	22.22	269377	Upward Expansion	87	95
2023-12-08	48.70	40.54	20.03	77554	Upward Expansion	83	94
2023-12-01	48.23	40.09	19.16	267188	Upward Expansion	87	92
2023-11-24	46.76	39.64	17.14	273840	Upward Expansion	88	86
2023-11-17	45.09	39.26	14.05	272376	Upward Expansion	87	75
2023-11-10	41.01	38.93	7.38	142468	Upward Expansion	63	54
2023-11-03	39.97	38.74	5.91	69664	Upward Expansion	51	43
2023-10-27	39.97	38.59	8.40	142736	Upward Expansion	51	41
2023-10-20	41.06	38.45	9.46	99752	Upward Expansion	65	47
2023-10-13	39.78	38.26	4.09	65748	Deceleration	41	25
2023-10-06	39.21	38.10	4.43	90492	Deceleration	34	20

Price vs TrendBelow-1.5%

Trend directionRising+3.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-1.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-2.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-25.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.5%

Price momentumPositive+5.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

1 / ±100

-22.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

9 /100

-9.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1203 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration76

Rotation Down37

Downward Expansion37

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 35%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 19%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-4.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-08-28	Developing	-5.8%
Deceleration	2026-06-19	2026-07-17	Developing	+6.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-06-12	Developing	-1.4%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-10	New	+4.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-03-13	New	-3.0%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-02-27	Developing	+3.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2026-01-16	Established	-0.5%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-10-03	Developing	+3.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-22	Developing	-2.7%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	+5.3%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-06-13	New	-3.7%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-23	Developing	+6.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-04-18	Established	-11.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing47

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 16/100
Current Relative Strength: -25.05
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +5.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -33.5%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 11th percentile9 in cohort

Test 1203 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.59×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1203 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 43.39falling

Slow Activity TWD 44.03rising

Trend Reference TWD 43.38-1.5% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 43.25-1.2% close margin

Structural low TWD 40.15shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.7%

Annualized volatility +22.4%

From structural high -12.3%

From structural low +14.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-1.5%-8.9% to +13.1%	+41.7%	+41.7%	-4.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+7.3%-8.1% to +9.0%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+3.6%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+5.5%+0.0% to +17.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-17.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+9.7%-18.0% to +37.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-19.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1203 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map