Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

SON Stage Analysis

Sonoco Products Company

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 47.92Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -33−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 60/100directional strength

Maturity 13/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -0.4%USD 48.12 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	47.92	52.56	-11.54	4777414	Rotation Down	-33	60
2026-10-02	48.74	52.72	-8.93	4642982	Rotation Down	-29	58
2026-09-25	50.06	52.85	-6.66	5208825	Rotation Down	-22	40
2026-09-18	48.84	53.05	-7.78	6547618	Deceleration	-29	36
2026-09-11	47.84	53.26	-9.85	6433296	Deceleration	-20	22
2026-09-04	51.95	53.36	-3.08	5918888	Upward Expansion	26	18
2026-08-28	56.47	53.30	5.40	4652491	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-08-21	59.48	52.99	11.61	3859626	Upward Expansion	71	54
2026-08-14	58.27	52.60	8.01	3259208	Upward Expansion	68	58
2026-08-07	57.48	52.24	6.86	5252772	Upward Expansion	65	54
2026-07-31	55.84	51.88	7.59	6802848	Upward Expansion	60	58
2026-07-24	57.69	51.46	12.56	7208148	Upward Expansion	70	73
2026-07-17	56.05	50.96	8.85	6373505	Upward Expansion	62	65
2026-07-10	55.37	50.51	6.02	5009064	Upward Expansion	58	57
2026-07-03	57.42	50.05	11.49	4329731	Deceleration	68	45
2026-06-26	55.11	49.49	9.48	7157808	Deceleration	47	26
2026-06-19	50.68	49.03	-1.53	5929636	Deceleration	17	11
2026-06-12	50.57	48.68	-0.89	6448020	Deceleration	6	11
2026-06-05	47.49	48.34	-6.50	6146303	Deceleration	-5	24
2026-05-29	48.68	48.07	-6.77	4842743	Deceleration	2	15
2026-05-22	49.37	47.75	-4.35	6023985	Balance	6	18
2026-05-15	46.69	47.41	-9.01	6914657	Balance	-6	20
2026-05-08	51.56	47.14	0.35	5763599	Upward Expansion	30	18
2026-05-01	49.54	46.70	-1.48	7847352	Upward Expansion	36	21
2026-04-24	47.95	46.45	-3.93	14835832	Upward Expansion	36	31
2026-04-17	56.81	46.27	14.04	4938199	Upward Expansion	76	60
2026-04-10	55.79	45.87	17.04	3661291	Upward Expansion	73	53
2026-04-03	54.27	45.55	18.11	3806220	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-03-27	52.64	45.23	18.48	3959027	Upward Expansion	52	44
2026-03-20	50.14	45.00	10.43	5231940	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-03-13	52.77	44.86	14.06	4522061	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-03-06	52.79	44.59	12.45	3586391	Upward Expansion	68	86
2026-02-27	55.88	44.30	16.66	4460451	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-02-20	55.34	43.85	15.09	8212255	Upward Expansion	95	96
2026-02-13	50.65	43.54	6.72	5262245	Upward Expansion	84	92
2026-02-06	50.31	43.32	4.64	4882603	Rotation Up	88	94
2026-01-30	47.06	43.12	-2.34	5400270	Rotation Up	42	77
2026-01-23	47.64	43.03	-0.92	3376499	Rotation Up	55	80
2026-01-16	47.75	42.84	-1.21	5428217	Rotation Up	51	73
2026-01-09	46.42	42.62	-4.48	4576536	Rotation Up	48	62
2026-01-02	43.50	42.49	-9.26	2622044	Balance	26	28
2025-12-26	42.64	42.48	-12.27	2601614	Balance	-3	14
2025-12-19	42.46	42.51	-11.79	6287829	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2025-12-12	41.62	42.55	-13.81	4741293	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2025-12-05	40.62	42.64	-16.84	4095112	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2025-11-28	41.34	42.70	-15.53	3132605	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-11-21	40.24	42.73	-15.22	5216231	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2025-11-14	40.12	42.84	-17.52	5372037	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-11-07	39.37	42.89	-19.42	6173532	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-10-31	39.26	42.94	-21.39	12605978	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2025-10-24	39.06	43.02	-21.78	9502027	Rotation Down	-69	78
2025-10-17	38.74	43.19	-21.50	6144399	Rotation Down	-46	65
2025-10-10	38.33	43.36	-21.51	5856178	Balance	-42	44
2025-10-03	41.92	43.52	-16.85	5432797	Balance	-10	14
2025-09-26	42.49	43.63	-15.32	5535797	Upward Expansion	19	10
2025-09-19	44.81	43.72	-11.50	5604814	Upward Expansion	51	31
2025-09-12	46.25	43.69	-8.06	4453078	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-09-05	44.73	43.63	-10.17	4767879	Upward Expansion	51	47
2025-08-29	45.72	43.61	-8.46	4402134	Upward Expansion	59	48
2025-08-22	46.01	43.57	-8.44	3821274	Balance	61	30
2025-08-15	44.76	43.54	-11.08	3535662	Balance	27	23
2025-08-08	43.96	43.54	-12.15	3317842	Balance	20	21
2025-08-01	42.32	43.50	-13.70	7159767	Balance	0	19
2025-07-25	46.23	43.59	-8.48	7165414	Balance	30	34
2025-07-18	43.88	43.57	-12.18	3579501	Balance	8	11
2025-07-11	44.26	43.65	-11.23	4123883	Balance	-9	5
2025-07-04	44.49	43.79	-11.30	4900400	Balance	-22	14
2025-06-27	41.91	43.90	-15.21	4864307	Balance	-50	37
2025-06-20	41.18	44.12	-14.18	3030311	Balance	-55	31
2025-06-13	42.47	44.34	-12.17	3040217	Balance	-34	14
2025-06-06	43.15	44.48	-11.64	2911592	Balance	-25	14
2025-05-30	43.56	44.62	-9.99	2458095	Balance	-25	14
2025-05-23	43.70	44.75	-8.82	2778430	Downward Expansion	-29	14
2025-05-16	44.36	44.93	-10.43	4451080	Downward Expansion	-28	14
2025-05-09	42.40	45.08	-10.50	3807925	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2025-05-02	42.26	45.34	-11.78	7411306	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2025-04-25	43.66	45.59	-6.78	2816465	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2025-04-18	41.50	45.81	-7.80	2518242	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-04-11	40.99	46.11	-10.74	5523908	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2025-04-04	41.38	46.44	-5.31	4486461	Downward Expansion	-70	47
2025-03-28	44.14	46.76	-8.55	3348030	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-03-21	44.12	47.03	-10.38	5814782	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2025-03-14	43.13	47.21	-12.36	4039886	Downward Expansion	-63	35
2025-03-07	45.13	47.34	-10.88	3825389	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-02-28	45.20	47.35	-13.96	5829922	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-02-21	43.78	47.42	-17.92	4982626	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2025-02-14	44.65	47.56	-18.17	3084855	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-02-07	43.87	47.65	-18.89	3416073	Downward Expansion	-67	49
2025-01-31	44.54	47.74	-18.33	4386745	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2025-01-24	45.30	47.74	-18.31	2575663	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-01-17	44.64	47.78	-18.69	3190947	Downward Expansion	-64	78
2025-01-10	42.94	47.99	-20.05	3405424	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2025-01-03	44.83	48.30	-18.74	2458910	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2024-12-27	45.70	48.63	-18.20	2197071	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2024-12-20	46.20	48.98	-17.29	6158344	Downward Expansion	-64	32
2024-12-13	48.55	49.29	-15.20	3421489	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2024-12-06	47.89	49.51	-17.28	2594512	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2024-11-29	48.50	49.72	-16.00	2309508	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2024-11-22	47.60	49.82	-17.09	2968394	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2024-11-15	46.81	49.94	-17.62	2932264	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2024-11-08	47.36	50.11	-18.89	3255156	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-11-01	47.32	50.23	-15.64	4031597	Balance	-51	30
2024-10-25	49.12	50.39	-14.19	2997307	Balance	-33	19
2024-10-18	49.01	50.50	-15.63	3163454	Balance	-29	17
2024-10-11	50.15	50.57	-13.33	2656055	Balance	-20	10
2024-10-04	49.75	50.63	-13.45	2063977	Balance	-8	10
2024-09-27	50.16	50.71	-12.91	3390349	Downward Expansion	-5	15
2024-09-20	50.47	50.75	-12.34	6757865	Downward Expansion	15	25
2024-09-13	50.96	50.79	-10.65	2871699	Downward Expansion	-4	21
2024-09-06	50.91	50.76	-7.54	2600054	Downward Expansion	-15	21
2024-08-30	52.35	50.77	-9.16	4116901	Downward Expansion	-14	13
2024-08-23	49.59	50.74	-14.07	4073880	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2024-08-16	47.05	50.83	-17.74	2767313	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-08-09	45.33	50.98	-18.05	3500438	Downward Expansion	-72	51
2024-08-02	47.28	51.18	-14.98	4354146	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-07-26	47.94	51.34	-16.04	3023250	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2024-07-19	47.50	51.42	-17.91	2715910	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-07-12	46.59	51.52	-21.48	4664909	Rotation Down	-71	85
2024-07-05	44.41	51.62	-24.87	3483361	Rotation Down	-62	61
2024-06-28	46.44	51.78	-20.45	6206293	Rotation Down	-44	41
2024-06-21	50.91	51.91	-13.37	7571948	Upward Expansion	16	10
2024-06-14	52.45	51.87	-10.58	2483909	Upward Expansion	55	43
2024-06-07	54.66	51.78	-5.72	2339766	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-05-31	56.19	51.57	-2.36	2498452	Upward Expansion	78	84
2024-05-24	55.50	51.34	-4.32	3048051	Upward Expansion	79	80
2024-05-17	55.19	50.99	-5.26	3174938	Upward Expansion	77	68
2024-05-10	53.99	50.66	-6.17	2484492	Upward Expansion	66	39
2024-05-03	51.55	50.43	-9.16	2678155	Upward Expansion	31	13
2024-04-26	51.29	50.30	-9.53	1819475	Upward Expansion	33	15
2024-04-19	51.83	50.20	-6.61	1974644	Upward Expansion	39	22
2024-04-12	51.13	50.08	-11.15	1813867	Upward Expansion	46	23
2024-04-05	51.89	50.03	-11.60	2209078	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-03-29	52.50	49.93	-11.80	1800780	Upward Expansion	61	39
2024-03-22	51.22	49.89	-14.10	2702807	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-03-15	51.72	49.86	-11.80	2519453	Upward Expansion	54	37
2024-03-08	52.23	49.79	-11.31	1727153	Deceleration	58	31
2024-03-01	51.47	49.73	-13.20	2453998	Deceleration	40	21
2024-02-23	51.67	49.71	-12.47	2205287	Upward Expansion	43	22
2024-02-16	50.06	49.72	-14.23	2952630	Upward Expansion	41	25
2024-02-09	51.22	49.77	-12.98	1517026	Upward Expansion	56	40
2024-02-02	51.22	49.77	-12.15	2100026	Upward Expansion	59	53
2024-01-26	52.45	49.74	-9.20	1800498	Rotation Up	70	65
2024-01-19	51.59	49.73	-10.10	1403597	Rotation Up	37	49
2024-01-12	51.26	49.70	-9.96	1524688	Rotation Up	34	45
2024-01-05	52.17	49.77	-7.07	2373512	Rotation Up	36	40
2023-12-29	50.25	49.89	-12.22	1294370	Balance	18	17
2023-12-22	50.51	50.03	-11.96	1767973	Balance	4	14
2023-12-15	49.71	50.13	-12.99	3230200	Balance	-4	14
2023-12-08	49.01	50.23	-12.57	2276253	Downward Expansion	-6	18
2023-12-01	50.30	50.35	-10.46	2477448	Downward Expansion	-10	21
2023-11-24	49.89	50.43	-10.80	1121815	Downward Expansion	-17	23
2023-11-17	49.60	50.54	-10.79	1835203	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2023-11-10	48.55	50.69	-10.97	1570907	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2023-11-03	49.10	50.84	-9.00	2942212	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2023-10-27	45.11	50.94	-11.80	2511482	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2023-10-20	45.40	51.22	-13.94	2233399	Downward Expansion	-83	83

Price vs TrendBelow-8.8%

Trend directionRising+1.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-0.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-16.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-17.6%

Price momentumNegative-14.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.13×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-33 / ±100

-13.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

60 /100

+38.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SON Directional State ↗ SON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion28

Deceleration49

Rotation Down72

Downward Expansion57

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 36%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-4.3%
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	+2.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-09-04	Developing	-6.2%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-07-03	Developing	+18.0%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	+5.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-08	Established	+1.8%
Rotation Up	2026-01-09	2026-02-06	Developing	+8.4%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-01-02	New	+2.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-31	2025-12-19	Developing	+8.1%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-10-24	New	+0.8%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	-8.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-09-26	Developing	-7.1%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-08-22	Established	+5.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-05-23	Extended	-7.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing24

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining76

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 79/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.54
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -14.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -29.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 44th percentile41 in cohort

Test SON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.13×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 48.68falling

Slow Activity USD 52.67falling

Trend Reference USD 52.56-8.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 48.12-0.4% close margin

Structural low USD 45.90shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +7.2%

Annualized volatility +40.2%

From structural high -20.3%

From structural low +28.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+3.4%-3.5% to +8.6%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+2.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	4	+4.3%-11.8% to +23.3%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+4.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+4.1%-1.6% to +46.7%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+0.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-1.8%-7.7% to +4.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-19.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map