Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Technology

4813 Stage Analysis

Access Co., Ltd.

Week ending 18 Sep 2026Close JPY 383.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -32โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 18/100directional strength
Maturity 98/100lifecycle context
Confidence 69/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -55.5%JPY 860.45 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-18383.00468.70-36.033738400Downward Expansion-3218
2026-09-11401.00475.57-33.011650500Downward Expansion-1522
2026-09-04421.00483.00-31.813358900Downward Expansion-2029
2026-08-28438.00489.90-31.693134900Downward Expansion-2534
2026-08-21452.00496.00-30.22649300Downward Expansion-3132
2026-08-14432.00501.43-37.48803500Downward Expansion-4947
2026-08-07381.00508.53-43.612174100Downward Expansion-6564
2026-07-31343.00515.77-49.511385000Downward Expansion-6868
2026-07-24335.00523.30-51.96563700Downward Expansion-7490
2026-07-17342.00531.23-51.73828900Downward Expansion-7290
2026-07-10345.00537.10-55.532298400Downward Expansion-7792
2026-07-03343.00542.60-57.43282700Downward Expansion-8996
2026-06-26335.00548.67-59.00429200Downward Expansion-9799
2026-06-19386.00555.87-55.23560300Downward Expansion-9697
2026-06-12442.00560.80-46.09218400Downward Expansion-8887
2026-06-05490.00565.20-42.06221200Downward Expansion-7475
2026-05-29497.00566.90-42.29799300Downward Expansion-7367
2026-05-22520.00568.47-38.14608100Downward Expansion-6360
2026-05-15510.00570.87-38.55987900Rotation Down-7165
2026-05-08530.00572.90-38.57254100Rotation Down-3651
2026-05-01528.00575.23-36.66624700Rotation Down-2951
2026-04-24530.00576.90-37.67927800Rotation Down-3048
2026-04-17542.00579.47-36.01637500Balance-2538
2026-04-10546.00581.33-34.82642000Balance-2425
2026-04-03559.00583.63-29.601132500Balance-1715
2026-03-27589.00586.27-27.251081800Balance2615
2026-03-20579.00587.67-29.551895500Balance2713
2026-03-13617.00596.07-26.67672400Balance99
2026-03-06612.00602.87-30.811274700Balance1211
2026-02-27633.00609.10-33.57567300Rotation Up3121
2026-02-20589.00612.07-37.08639700Rotation Up1516
2026-02-13624.00617.83-34.721185100Rotation Up2028
2026-02-06628.00622.80-32.37932900Rotation Up2432
2026-01-30621.00624.70-33.14887100Balance424
2026-01-23615.00626.13-35.73661800Balance-122
2026-01-16645.00634.43-33.551082700Downward Expansion922
2026-01-09598.00641.03-36.691120000Downward Expansion-3119
2026-01-02569.00648.00-38.51635200Downward Expansion-4534
2025-12-26573.00656.87-39.264864400Downward Expansion-5946
2025-12-19518.00666.20-44.332581500Downward Expansion-6774
2025-12-12510.00674.73-47.252317900Downward Expansion-7683
2025-12-05525.00684.13-46.021360200Downward Expansion-7372
2025-11-28551.00693.43-43.841618400Downward Expansion-6271
2025-11-21534.00700.70-44.931014400Downward Expansion-7057
2025-11-14574.00708.70-44.13799100Downward Expansion-6154
2025-11-07541.00714.20-48.31688000Downward Expansion-7274
2025-10-31544.00720.40-51.12982400Downward Expansion-7461
2025-10-24592.00727.03-44.58564000Downward Expansion-6363
2025-10-17571.00735.77-45.59671400Downward Expansion-7175
2025-10-10600.00745.73-44.451524100Downward Expansion-6575
2025-10-03578.00757.17-44.691844100Downward Expansion-7483
2025-09-26607.00769.83-42.431332700Downward Expansion-6577
2025-09-19598.00781.17-44.012605500Downward Expansion-7078
2025-09-12615.00795.70-43.401346500Downward Expansion-7070
2025-09-05638.00811.73-40.507442000Balance-6848
2025-08-29631.00825.83-41.847015800Balance-6527
2025-08-22831.00844.30-24.18769700Balance-1513
2025-08-15821.00847.37-27.06771000Downward Expansion-2413
2025-08-08799.00848.07-27.061089100Downward Expansion-4825
2025-08-01722.00849.80-33.131239800Downward Expansion-5850
2025-07-25762.00855.10-31.331207000Downward Expansion-5563
2025-07-18773.00859.23-28.361558900Downward Expansion-5460
2025-07-11685.00861.87-36.691598000Downward Expansion-7366
2025-07-04664.00868.97-39.644789900Downward Expansion-7341
2025-06-27864.00878.13-22.841066900Downward Expansion-1112
2025-06-20843.00890.90-21.86948200Downward Expansion-3020
2025-06-13807.00906.77-24.66903000Downward Expansion-3620
2025-06-06835.00923.03-22.681793700Downward Expansion-3823
2025-05-30853.00937.97-22.392886400Downward Expansion-4129
2025-05-23774.00951.30-28.69547000Downward Expansion-4942
2025-05-16792.00966.07-28.97636100Downward Expansion-4944
2025-05-09804.00982.70-28.43492200Downward Expansion-6255
2025-05-02769.00997.93-31.15628500Downward Expansion-6577
2025-04-25774.001,016.13-29.33603300Downward Expansion-6676
2025-04-18739.001,040.27-31.26703700Downward Expansion-7383
2025-04-11727.001,069.03-30.821458700Downward Expansion-8287
2025-04-04743.001,102.87-30.441822300Downward Expansion-8684
2025-03-28854.001,125.87-27.841170900Downward Expansion-7476
2025-03-21870.001,137.30-28.481970400Downward Expansion-6567
2025-03-14943.001,149.10-22.081109600Downward Expansion-5240
2025-03-07958.001,157.90-20.89924000Downward Expansion-4728
2025-02-28947.001,164.77-22.821466500Downward Expansion-4223
2025-02-211,034.001,173.30-19.451355000Downward Expansion-2329
2025-02-141,096.001,183.50-15.301030000Downward Expansion-2831
2025-02-071,061.001,189.93-16.941942100Downward Expansion-3828
2025-01-311,185.001,198.83-8.865158100Downward Expansion-3434
2025-01-24923.001,200.20-29.331224000Downward Expansion-6765
2025-01-17842.001,211.93-32.991003800Downward Expansion-7385
2025-01-10851.001,226.83-33.542179100Downward Expansion-7490
2025-01-03881.001,246.23-32.43422400Downward Expansion-7089
2024-12-27886.001,268.03-32.782552800Downward Expansion-7390
2024-12-20852.001,284.60-32.843155900Downward Expansion-8594
2024-12-13898.001,304.67-30.682997100Downward Expansion-8685
2024-12-06939.001,330.27-26.906348700Balance-8161
2024-11-291,247.001,350.90-0.472790800Balance-4321
2024-11-221,319.001,358.975.761880000Balance-4724
2024-11-151,295.001,360.803.471391300Balance-5136
2024-11-081,283.001,365.670.90725700Balance-5445
2024-11-011,253.001,373.872.831407400Balance-4636
2024-10-251,217.001,378.370.771776600Balance-4937
2024-10-181,291.001,397.134.501489800Balance-3826
2024-10-111,261.001,412.031.052826700Rotation Up-3415
2024-10-041,315.001,414.238.542584100Rotation Up1031
2024-09-271,498.001,418.1020.632663700Rotation Up2240
2024-09-201,602.001,407.5337.315095100Rotation Up3042
2024-09-131,742.001,385.4055.7113301700Deceleration3733
2024-09-061,433.001,355.4030.679349200Deceleration-2414
2024-08-301,197.001,336.403.681242000Deceleration-3143
2024-08-231,224.001,323.177.021009100Deceleration-3043
2024-08-161,207.001,308.236.562071800Deceleration-3031
2024-08-091,164.001,293.8311.932647200Deceleration-3830
2024-08-021,203.001,281.3013.301930100Deceleration-2723
2024-07-261,340.001,268.1720.811353500Deceleration220
2024-07-191,289.001,251.209.85767400Deceleration-030
2024-07-121,328.001,235.0310.362070900Deceleration227
2024-07-051,226.001,218.102.841513700Balance-722
2024-06-281,275.001,199.3010.641687600Balance311
2024-06-211,289.001,180.6714.902005100Upward Expansion1313
2024-06-141,433.001,165.2327.244228500Upward Expansion3820
2024-06-071,535.001,143.6737.367271000Upward Expansion5734
2024-05-311,383.001,118.1325.083011700Upward Expansion5335
2024-05-241,454.001,097.7331.074775900Upward Expansion5640
2024-05-171,666.001,073.8350.653143300Deceleration6845
2024-05-101,558.001,042.7344.362999700Deceleration5137
2024-05-031,489.001,016.8039.022346900Deceleration4637
2024-04-261,374.00992.6030.134832500Upward Expansion4638
2024-04-191,441.00972.9740.298769800Upward Expansion6257
2024-04-121,529.00951.3740.535373900Upward Expansion6667
2024-04-051,388.00927.6330.097946800Upward Expansion6882
2024-03-291,780.00909.2761.689728400Upward Expansion9297
2024-03-221,738.00880.2757.2916568800Upward Expansion9899
2024-03-151,327.00853.1727.915323100Upward Expansion8594
2024-03-081,431.00838.4034.7911402400Upward Expansion9798
2024-03-011,181.00819.7310.698443600Upward Expansion9288
2024-02-23938.00809.53-10.651627300Balance4555
2024-02-16842.00808.27-19.20784300Balance1624
2024-02-09863.00810.60-14.451220000Balance2213
2024-02-02800.00812.47-19.841924200Balance-2312
2024-01-26776.00816.67-22.11562900Balance-1910
2024-01-19775.00823.77-23.33563400Balance-1411
2024-01-12788.00831.47-21.92603000Balance-1014
2024-01-05809.00839.27-15.24457500Balance-917
2023-12-29831.00846.03-13.581408600Balance-107
2023-12-22804.00854.83-16.031906300Downward Expansion-3828
2023-12-15820.00856.47-14.274108300Downward Expansion-4531
2023-12-08662.00858.27-29.661216600Downward Expansion-8357
2023-12-01716.00864.93-27.101927600Downward Expansion-6338
2023-11-24826.00869.90-17.02557300Downward Expansion-4025
2023-11-17786.00871.03-21.15423000Downward Expansion-4840
2023-11-10769.00872.87-20.72355900Downward Expansion-6253
2023-11-03771.00875.77-19.23567700Downward Expansion-6558
2023-10-27737.00878.43-20.64511000Downward Expansion-7480
2023-10-20733.00883.00-22.00543600Downward Expansion-8186
2023-10-13780.00886.80-19.99520800Downward Expansion-6882
2023-10-06763.00889.57-18.68560700Downward Expansion-7886
2023-09-29785.00897.23-18.86551500Downward Expansion-7380
Price vs TrendBelow-18.3%
Trend directionFalling-12.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-55.5%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-36.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+19.2%
Price momentumNegative-33.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.55ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-32 / ยฑ100

-0.6 points since 2026-08-21

Energy

18 /100

-13.4 points since 2026-08-21

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance46
Rotation Up27
Upward Expansion22
Deceleration50
Rotation Down30
Downward Expansion56

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-18 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 55%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-05-222026-09-18Established-26.3%
Rotation Down2026-04-242026-05-15New-3.8%
Balance2026-03-062026-04-17Developing-11.4%
Rotation Up2026-02-062026-02-27New+0.8%
Balance2026-01-232026-01-30New+1.0%
Downward Expansion2025-09-122026-01-16Established+4.9%
Balance2025-08-222025-09-05New-23.2%
Downward Expansion2024-12-132025-08-15Extended-8.6%
Balance2024-10-182024-12-06Developing-27.3%
Rotation Up2024-09-202024-10-11New-21.3%
Deceleration2024-07-122024-09-13Developing+31.2%
Balance2024-06-282024-07-05New-3.8%
Upward Expansion2024-05-242024-06-21Developing-11.3%
Deceleration2024-05-032024-05-17New+11.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing69
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution1
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
95/100
Current Relative Strength
-36.03
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-33.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-55.7%
Technology regime cohort
12th percentile130 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.00ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.55ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 407.33falling
Slow Activity JPY 424.73falling
Trend Reference JPY 468.70-18.3% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 860.45-55.5% close margin
Structural low JPY 318.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +10.8%
Annualized volatility +42.0%
From structural high -44.6%
From structural low +20.4%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term29-2.4%-25.8% to +26.3%+41.4%+58.6%-3.4%+86.2%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate11+1.4%-26.8% to +116.2%+54.5%+45.5%-1.0%+72.7%Usable descriptive sample
Extended6-7.5%-36.8% to +119.2%+33.3%+66.7%-4.3%+66.7%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3+26.2%-43.2% to +102.0%+66.7%+33.3%+28.1%+33.3%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context