Weekly structural research ยท GER ยท Real Estate

HABA Stage Analysis

Hamborner REIT AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 4.01Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -91โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 94/100directional strength
Maturity 9/100lifecycle context
Confidence 80/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -20.5%EUR 5.05 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-024.014.38-10.66587901Downward Expansion-9194
2026-09-254.204.39-7.70257939Rotation Down-7385
2026-09-184.194.40-7.93333075Rotation Down-5377
2026-09-114.224.41-8.83291447Rotation Down-5371
2026-09-044.264.42-10.0739686Rotation Down-4965
2026-08-284.344.43-10.7447453Rotation Down-2551
2026-08-214.304.42-10.6542981Rotation Down-3352
2026-08-144.344.42-11.26139949Rotation Down-2743
2026-08-074.364.42-11.0544384Deceleration-2430
2026-07-314.384.41-8.6870430Deceleration-212
2026-07-244.434.40-6.2739769Deceleration712
2026-07-174.464.39-4.9071412Deceleration2119
2026-07-104.434.38-6.9126192Deceleration1821
2026-07-034.484.37-8.8942559Deceleration2922
2026-06-264.444.36-6.2773183Upward Expansion3421
2026-06-194.484.35-6.99100212Upward Expansion4532
2026-06-124.624.34-3.4084060Upward Expansion6054
2026-06-054.564.33-5.48145422Upward Expansion6364
2026-05-294.814.32-2.04676711Upward Expansion8080
2026-05-224.684.32-4.42709246Upward Expansion7169
2026-05-154.584.33-3.04749001Rotation Up6666
2026-05-084.604.33-4.64883565Rotation Up4253
2026-05-014.474.35-7.49448043Balance3029
2026-04-244.474.37-7.20882714Balance1216
2026-04-174.424.39-10.90596516Balance-179
2026-04-104.334.41-10.05585746Balance-4530
2026-04-034.224.44-10.38647631Balance-5546
2026-03-274.034.48-11.581572519Balance-6147
2026-03-204.174.52-9.29717318Balance-4935
2026-03-134.234.56-12.38820624Balance-3520
2026-03-064.234.59-13.211196844Balance-1918
2026-02-274.424.63-15.801944333Balance-323
2026-02-204.554.66-13.59687381Balance826
2026-02-134.494.68-14.00833509Downward Expansion-920
2026-02-064.434.71-15.10596755Downward Expansion-3326
2026-01-304.324.74-17.19554000Downward Expansion-4130
2026-01-234.244.78-20.43546421Downward Expansion-4742
2026-01-164.274.82-21.74752233Downward Expansion-5252
2026-01-094.164.87-24.28782502Downward Expansion-6562
2026-01-024.104.91-23.78446797Downward Expansion-6665
2025-12-264.054.97-24.72359599Downward Expansion-7368
2025-12-194.125.02-24.03932492Downward Expansion-6967
2025-12-124.035.06-26.06766972Downward Expansion-8172
2025-12-054.185.11-23.33560408Downward Expansion-7480
2025-11-284.345.15-20.384729502Downward Expansion-6887
2025-11-214.045.18-24.201311565Downward Expansion-9698
2025-11-144.315.22-22.521002321Downward Expansion-9497
2025-11-074.465.25-19.351446927Downward Expansion-9497
2025-10-314.795.27-15.59904781Downward Expansion-7690
2025-10-244.785.28-17.33759634Downward Expansion-8491
2025-10-174.815.29-16.01686267Downward Expansion-8786
2025-10-104.965.30-15.31813844Rotation Down-8078
2025-10-035.125.30-13.71594419Rotation Down-3959
2025-09-265.115.30-12.11328541Rotation Down-4259
2025-09-195.105.30-12.41553040Balance-4551
2025-09-125.225.30-11.15342117Balance-2225
2025-09-055.245.32-10.99424346Balance-2217
2025-08-295.305.33-11.62420362Balance-35
2025-08-225.355.33-13.03256441Deceleration-1013
2025-08-155.335.34-13.85330486Deceleration-1321
2025-08-085.415.34-12.34552964Deceleration-1122
2025-08-015.175.34-14.20380751Deceleration-3235
2025-07-255.245.35-16.58347005Deceleration419
2025-07-185.345.35-15.75510224Deceleration2521
2025-07-115.415.35-15.05482174Upward Expansion4024
2025-07-045.445.35-13.42805001Upward Expansion5535
2025-06-275.535.35-13.341182651Rotation Up6154
2025-06-205.585.35-10.50509384Rotation Up3861
2025-06-135.555.35-12.10407335Rotation Up3760
2025-06-065.635.35-14.22740845Rotation Up4063
2025-05-305.625.34-13.691131017Rotation Up4155
2025-05-235.435.34-15.71542126Rotation Up2531
2025-05-165.435.34-16.62552074Downward Expansion2126
2025-05-095.355.35-17.26364449Downward Expansion-1520
2025-05-025.375.36-15.93417807Deceleration-2115
2025-04-255.225.36-15.69302675Deceleration-4127
2025-04-185.235.38-11.68465409Downward Expansion-4532
2025-04-114.985.39-12.911072220Downward Expansion-6849
2025-04-045.035.41-13.47555832Downward Expansion-6760
2025-03-285.165.43-18.76398961Downward Expansion-6374
2025-03-215.115.44-21.30851999Downward Expansion-6379
2025-03-144.995.46-23.94707510Downward Expansion-7784
2025-03-075.025.48-23.881209624Downward Expansion-7674
2025-02-285.135.50-20.981306180Downward Expansion-7147
2025-02-215.285.52-17.95716652Downward Expansion-4622
2025-02-145.595.53-14.36356865Downward Expansion2021
2025-02-075.595.53-11.79346473Downward Expansion-910
2025-01-315.505.53-13.30661449Downward Expansion-3217
2025-01-245.405.53-13.84424677Downward Expansion-5229
2025-01-175.415.54-11.85503173Downward Expansion-5233
2025-01-105.415.55-9.22309798Downward Expansion-5549
2025-01-035.435.55-7.90147698Downward Expansion-5653
2024-12-275.365.56-9.73111432Downward Expansion-6553
2024-12-205.365.57-9.59785461Downward Expansion-6738
2024-12-135.445.58-10.95391539Downward Expansion-5934
2024-12-065.525.58-9.78343651Downward Expansion-5239
2024-11-295.525.58-6.59403214Downward Expansion-5652
2024-11-225.415.58-7.25399498Downward Expansion-6762
2024-11-155.475.59-5.96352552Balance-5852
2024-11-085.505.58-5.84435500Balance-2831
2024-11-015.555.58-5.48415110Balance-1615
2024-10-255.545.57-6.99235381Balance96
2024-10-185.615.57-7.06237793Balance3214
2024-10-115.615.56-5.99303455Balance3214
2024-10-045.575.55-5.56175885Balance2711
2024-09-275.645.53-6.34266920Balance3817
2024-09-205.595.51-3.72426803Balance199
2024-09-135.575.49-4.09469589Balance2010
2024-09-065.615.48-1.56350354Balance2310
2024-08-305.595.46-5.13267687Upward Expansion3013
2024-08-235.605.44-3.78250604Upward Expansion3317
2024-08-165.535.43-3.49186664Upward Expansion3415
2024-08-095.635.421.43328178Upward Expansion5329
2024-08-025.655.422.01340052Upward Expansion5532
2024-07-265.535.41-4.28438970Upward Expansion5131
2024-07-195.705.41-0.09219085Upward Expansion6239
2024-07-125.615.40-4.82260680Deceleration5132
2024-07-055.655.39-2.76322799Deceleration4931
2024-06-285.575.38-3.06193946Upward Expansion4228
2024-06-215.595.37-2.28346358Upward Expansion5536
2024-06-145.535.36-2.60319411Upward Expansion5842
2024-06-075.635.35-4.09410606Upward Expansion6257
2024-05-315.655.34-3.58370702Upward Expansion6868
2024-05-245.635.32-5.07395108Upward Expansion6971
2024-05-175.585.30-6.14343029Upward Expansion6568
2024-05-105.595.28-6.50335884Upward Expansion7064
2024-05-035.585.26-2.91351706Upward Expansion7255
2024-04-265.465.24-6.05583034Upward Expansion6247
2024-04-195.355.23-6.13646961Upward Expansion5550
2024-04-125.345.22-7.46451958Upward Expansion5649
2024-04-055.445.21-7.30369508Upward Expansion6243
2024-03-295.445.20-9.00371300Rotation Down5235
2024-03-225.325.20-10.01298483Rotation Down1812
2024-03-155.255.19-10.19577874Rotation Down010
2024-03-085.105.19-12.38383703Rotation Down-2134
2024-03-015.025.19-13.80684107Rotation Down-3049
2024-02-235.085.20-11.52332509Rotation Down-2343
2024-02-165.095.20-10.18330775Upward Expansion-2132
2024-02-095.085.21-9.67440137Upward Expansion-2126
2024-02-025.055.21-10.55499583Upward Expansion812
2024-01-265.215.20-8.34302018Upward Expansion3419
2024-01-195.325.20-4.36248425Upward Expansion5637
2024-01-125.545.20-1.44389356Upward Expansion7058
2024-01-055.405.20-3.34192494Upward Expansion5852
2023-12-295.405.20-4.40116532Rotation Up6052
2023-12-225.415.20-4.20340126Rotation Up3439
2023-12-155.405.20-4.93374341Rotation Up3439
2023-12-085.365.19-5.89379284Rotation Up2532
2023-12-015.225.20-6.50300528Rotation Up1322
2023-11-245.265.21-3.94349651Downward Expansion1522
2023-11-175.315.22-2.70295411Downward Expansion-1114
2023-11-105.185.22-1.07348346Downward Expansion-2813
2023-11-035.295.231.05518428Downward Expansion-3521
2023-10-274.905.23-3.51244154Downward Expansion-6661
2023-10-204.955.25-3.68241757Downward Expansion-6455
2023-10-135.015.26-5.45278844Downward Expansion-6047
Price vs TrendBelow-8.5%
Trend directionFalling-0.5%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-20.5%
Fair Value directionMoving away-8.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-1.8%
Price momentumNegative-5.0%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.23ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-91 / ยฑ100

-42.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

94 /100

+28.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance13
Rotation Up9
Upward Expansion22
Deceleration37
Rotation Down84
Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 32%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-10-022026-10-02New+0.0%
Rotation Down2026-08-142026-09-25Developing-3.5%
Deceleration2026-07-032026-08-07Developing-2.7%
Upward Expansion2026-05-222026-06-26Developing-5.2%
Rotation Up2026-05-082026-05-15New-0.3%
Balance2026-02-202026-05-01Developing-1.8%
Downward Expansion2025-10-172026-02-13Established-6.5%
Rotation Down2025-09-262025-10-10New-2.9%
Balance2025-08-292025-09-19New-3.8%
Deceleration2025-07-182025-08-22Developing+0.2%
Upward Expansion2025-07-042025-07-11New-0.5%
Rotation Up2025-05-232025-06-27Developing+1.9%
Downward Expansion2025-05-092025-05-16New+1.4%
Deceleration2025-04-252025-05-02New+2.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing71
Stage 2 ยท Advancing8
Stage 3 ยท Distribution38
Stage 4 ยท Declining92

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
95/100
Current Relative Strength
-10.66
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-5.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-13.9%
Real Estate regime cohort
100th percentile18 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.07ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.23ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 4.14falling
Slow Activity EUR 4.36falling
Trend Reference EUR 4.38-8.5% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 5.05-20.5% close margin
Structural low EUR 4.01shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.5%
Annualized volatility +14.5%
From structural high -21.8%
From structural low +1.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term27+1.0%-13.2% to +7.5%+51.9%+48.1%-2.2%+85.2%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate9+0.8%-13.8% to +7.4%+55.6%+44.4%-4.5%+55.6%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5-2.8%-9.9% to +1.2%+40.0%+60.0%-11.7%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3-12.4%-25.4% to +8.5%+33.3%+66.7%-25.9%+33.3%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context