Weekly structural research · LSE · Basic Materials

TYM Stage Analysis

Tertiary Minerals plc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close GBP 0.0008Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 29−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +4.4%GBP 0.000766 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	0.0008	0.000719	7.84	0	Balance	29	33
2026-09-18	0.0008	0.000725	9.07	486553614	Balance	9	11
2026-09-11	0.00065	0.000727	-10.65	155998279	Balance	-24	12
2026-09-04	0.00063	0.00074	-14.62	343114323	Balance	-19	12
2026-08-28	0.0007	0.000753	-4.74	172185643	Balance	-9	11
2026-08-21	0.00073	0.000759	0.17	18897630	Balance	-5	12
2026-08-14	0.00065	0.000767	-9.48	23406795	Balance	-29	18
2026-08-07	0.00065	0.000776	-10.13	22652525	Downward Expansion	-30	21
2026-07-31	0.0007	0.000779	-2.36	90156146	Downward Expansion	-32	23
2026-07-24	0.00065	0.000775	-7.64	62442808	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-07-17	0.00065	0.000771	-5.97	7140853	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2026-07-10	0.00063	0.000767	-7.36	10680738	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2026-07-03	0.0006	0.000764	-12.70	9625340	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2026-06-26	0.00053	0.00076	-21.19	165133580	Rotation Down	-66	74
2026-06-19	0.00053	0.000758	-19.67	105700067	Rotation Down	-40	61
2026-06-12	0.0005	0.000758	-24.64	125274910	Rotation Down	-46	59
2026-06-05	0.00053	0.00076	-19.00	509815068	Balance	-45	48
2026-05-29	0.0007	0.000763	7.04	42946467	Balance	-21	26
2026-05-22	0.0007	0.000763	6.86	129438026	Balance	-2	14
2026-05-15	0.0008	0.000759	25.74	58116614	Balance	9	10
2026-05-08	0.0008	0.000755	26.09	59188117	Balance	10	7
2026-05-01	0.0008	0.000753	25.27	70632466	Balance	13	7
2026-04-24	0.0008	0.000745	25.69	132488098	Balance	14	8
2026-04-17	0.00085	0.000732	30.91	96521609	Balance	27	11
2026-04-10	0.00085	0.000719	33.05	116404352	Balance	28	14
2026-04-03	0.00083	0.000707	32.97	135902203	Upward Expansion	30	15
2026-03-27	0.0009	0.000693	51.94	265327497	Upward Expansion	32	15
2026-03-20	0.00075	0.000675	28.36	100090278	Upward Expansion	35	18
2026-03-13	0.00085	0.000661	41.81	107106913	Upward Expansion	42	24
2026-03-06	0.001	0.000644	67.96	177391004	Upward Expansion	58	36
2026-02-27	0.001	0.000623	60.25	201033909	Upward Expansion	61	41
2026-02-20	0.00085	0.000603	40.72	320291426	Upward Expansion	59	42
2026-02-13	0.00105	0.000587	79.16	176192108	Upward Expansion	70	63
2026-02-06	0.001	0.000564	74.26	995239724	Upward Expansion	70	71
2026-01-30	0.0009	0.000542	61.07	627849578	Upward Expansion	66	72
2026-01-23	0.00095	0.000523	72.86	1007579882	Upward Expansion	75	75
2026-01-16	0.00093	0.000501	68.73	405682901	Balance	77	68
2026-01-09	0.00073	0.00048	34.30	238641598	Balance	60	39
2026-01-02	0.00058	0.000466	8.87	111391687	Balance	32	15
2025-12-26	0.00053	0.000458	-0.01	59697053	Balance	15	8
2025-12-19	0.00053	0.000456	-0.68	121603204	Balance	14	11
2025-12-12	0.00055	0.000455	5.17	186731617	Balance	23	16
2025-12-05	0.00048	0.000453	-9.19	94387338	Upward Expansion	23	17
2025-11-28	0.00048	0.000454	-10.77	177743775	Upward Expansion	28	16
2025-11-21	0.00053	0.000456	-0.82	88162783	Upward Expansion	38	21
2025-11-14	0.00055	0.000453	0.03	396111002	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-11-07	0.00063	0.000448	13.47	144653186	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-10-31	0.00068	0.000442	21.15	269225159	Upward Expansion	65	66
2025-10-24	0.00058	0.000435	3.44	560937745	Upward Expansion	62	68
2025-10-17	0.0007	0.000434	26.92	935020314	Rotation Up	76	76
2025-10-10	0.00073	0.000425	30.30	433203482	Rotation Up	59	67
2025-10-03	0.00055	0.000417	-3.21	739314290	Rotation Up	33	44
2025-09-26	0.00043	0.000416	-23.60	199152874	Rotation Up	14	24
2025-09-19	0.00045	0.000419	-20.94	316581812	Balance	18	24
2025-09-12	0.00048	0.00042	-17.77	560304674	Balance	9	16
2025-09-05	0.00042	0.000422	-28.70	1025862096	Downward Expansion	-12	10
2025-08-29	0.00035	0.000426	-41.43	58313718	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2025-08-22	0.00035	0.000432	-43.30	153512569	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-08-15	0.00034	0.000442	-45.23	207075037	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2025-08-08	0.00036	0.000454	-43.26	110209255	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2025-08-01	0.00039	0.00046	-39.82	112514403	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-07-25	0.00039	0.000465	-41.38	264147013	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-07-18	0.00035	0.00047	-47.88	93467522	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2025-07-11	0.00034	0.000477	-50.46	191753917	Downward Expansion	-60	62
2025-07-04	0.00033	0.000488	-52.55	259935919	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-06-27	0.00029	0.0005	-59.03	122248288	Downward Expansion	-69	75
2025-06-20	0.00031	0.000514	-57.06	269324235	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-06-13	0.00031	0.000529	-58.45	107113097	Balance	-66	57
2025-06-06	0.00032	0.000543	-58.12	271168863	Balance	-64	36
2025-05-30	0.00048	0.000555	-38.45	18936712	Balance	-31	13
2025-05-23	0.0005	0.000564	-36.80	95159801	Balance	-29	15
2025-05-16	0.0005	0.000575	-37.79	92214819	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-05-09	0.0005	0.000586	-37.94	49014780	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-05-02	0.00053	0.000597	-35.71	85586991	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-04-25	0.00045	0.000606	-44.90	56317864	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-04-18	0.0004	0.000621	-50.85	95030411	Downward Expansion	-62	35
2025-04-11	0.00045	0.000637	-43.45	20723650	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2025-04-04	0.00048	0.000652	-41.25	222187733	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-03-28	0.00055	0.000663	-37.64	183201455	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-03-21	0.00043	0.000673	-51.33	109537521	Downward Expansion	-65	42
2025-03-14	0.00048	0.000693	-45.94	73141663	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2025-03-07	0.00053	0.000714	-41.07	96355319	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-02-28	0.0005	0.000731	-45.57	101998450	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-02-21	0.0005	0.000747	-45.01	104155458	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-02-14	0.00053	0.000767	-42.65	74260303	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2025-02-07	0.00053	0.00079	-42.96	105038497	Downward Expansion	-60	32
2025-01-31	0.00055	0.000812	-41.42	171548213	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-01-24	0.00065	0.000827	-30.21	341458188	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2025-01-17	0.0007	0.00084	-25.58	363128414	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2025-01-10	0.00053	0.000855	-42.48	68153568	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2025-01-03	0.00055	0.000878	-41.01	58510791	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2024-12-27	0.00053	0.000904	-43.56	82743008	Downward Expansion	-75	65
2024-12-20	0.00055	0.000928	-41.89	153286177	Downward Expansion	-78	61
2024-12-13	0.00068	0.000952	-31.24	207483949	Downward Expansion	-64	45
2024-12-06	0.0007	0.000969	-30.29	40884087	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2024-11-29	0.0007	0.000987	-30.93	114561487	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2024-11-22	0.00075	0.000997	-26.84	129630005	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2024-11-15	0.00073	0.001005	-27.66	53061902	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-11-08	0.0007	0.001015	-31.37	60641581	Downward Expansion	-71	64
2024-11-01	0.00073	0.001028	-30.13	220330963	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2024-10-25	0.00085	0.001025	-20.27	78025218	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2024-10-18	0.00083	0.001018	-24.17	104935753	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-10-11	0.00083	0.001013	-24.28	138843985	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-10-04	0.0008	0.001009	-28.06	92817207	Downward Expansion	-33	35
2024-09-27	0.00088	0.001007	-22.03	62306190	Rotation Down	-28	37
2024-09-20	0.00088	0.001002	-22.01	127183303	Rotation Down	-29	44
2024-09-13	0.0009	0.000999	-21.05	308992453	Rotation Down	-29	42
2024-09-06	0.00083	0.000997	-26.89	229502551	Balance	-27	37
2024-08-30	0.00083	0.001004	-29.24	177806231	Balance	-26	26
2024-08-23	0.00105	0.001009	-10.28	31786627	Balance	11	10
2024-08-16	0.0011	0.001008	-5.83	24491902	Balance	15	11
2024-08-09	0.00105	0.001006	-8.42	199872428	Balance	14	9
2024-08-02	0.00098	0.001009	-14.57	76949353	Balance	12	6
2024-07-26	0.0011	0.001018	-5.47	39019342	Balance	31	14
2024-07-19	0.0012	0.001023	4.94	43041940	Balance	35	18
2024-07-12	0.0012	0.001028	4.03	96730576	Balance	34	20
2024-07-05	0.001	0.001032	-12.54	48952177	Balance	27	18
2024-06-28	0.00105	0.001038	-7.84	60640516	Rotation Up	40	22
2024-06-21	0.00115	0.001048	-0.11	45828406	Rotation Up	28	25
2024-06-14	0.0012	0.001046	5.38	160247251	Rotation Up	32	32
2024-06-07	0.00135	0.001044	17.29	129657413	Rotation Up	43	47
2024-05-31	0.00125	0.001039	8.43	59404421	Rotation Up	31	55
2024-05-24	0.00125	0.001038	7.87	146043410	Rotation Up	34	53
2024-05-17	0.0012	0.001043	2.01	131202017	Rotation Up	33	42
2024-05-10	0.00125	0.001051	5.63	284407950	Rotation Up	39	39
2024-05-03	0.001	0.001055	-13.69	193328398	Downward Expansion	-4	23
2024-04-26	0.00098	0.001063	-15.46	67182197	Downward Expansion	-20	25
2024-04-19	0.00103	0.001076	-9.34	215702513	Downward Expansion	-25	20
2024-04-12	0.00108	0.001079	-7.02	506083154	Downward Expansion	-32	30
2024-04-05	0.00065	0.001084	-43.95	131305937	Downward Expansion	-70	83
2024-03-29	0.00063	0.001104	-46.82	25045307	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2024-03-22	0.00068	0.001114	-43.16	27693656	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2024-03-15	0.00073	0.001122	-38.30	44294658	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-03-08	0.00073	0.001128	-38.55	49690788	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2024-03-01	0.00073	0.001135	-39.56	38150086	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-02-23	0.00078	0.001142	-36.16	43216333	Rotation Down	-72	66
2024-02-16	0.00085	0.001147	-31.07	133819422	Rotation Down	-43	53
2024-02-09	0.00103	0.001151	-15.63	68854266	Rotation Down	-29	45
2024-02-02	0.001	0.001147	-18.74	48337601	Rotation Down	-25	42
2024-01-26	0.001	0.001146	-19.33	84824291	Balance	-23	31
2024-01-19	0.00105	0.001147	-13.90	59944598	Balance	1	9
2024-01-12	0.00115	0.001147	-8.42	45709731	Balance	14	8
2024-01-05	0.00125	0.001144	-1.83	43662975	Balance	36	20
2023-12-29	0.00125	0.00114	-2.45	29090882	Balance	35	20
2023-12-22	0.00135	0.001137	5.77	391052755	Balance	48	26
2023-12-15	0.0013	0.001135	3.66	161626586	Balance	44	19
2023-12-08	0.0012	0.001137	-4.41	99811776	Balance	26	14
2023-12-01	0.00133	0.001145	5.55	231371966	Balance	34	19
2023-11-24	0.0011	0.001151	-12.78	89906077	Balance	20	18
2023-11-17	0.00115	0.001166	-10.31	63515563	Balance	6	7
2023-11-10	0.00118	0.001181	-7.33	23500930	Rotation Up	14	15
2023-11-03	0.00123	0.001195	-5.61	39376854	Rotation Up	28	27
2023-10-27	0.0014	0.001207	7.24	36270790	Rotation Up	32	38
2023-10-20	0.00145	0.001205	8.01	77708029	Rotation Up	32	46
2023-10-13	0.00135	0.001207	-3.71	29574958	Rotation Up	26	39
2023-10-06	0.00125	0.00121	-11.65	108489553	Rotation Up	17	26

Price vs TrendAbove+11.3%

Trend directionFalling-6.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+37.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.0%

Price momentumNegative-11.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.45×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

29 / ±100

+37.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

33 /100

+22.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TYM Directional State ↗ TYM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up56

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration22

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion27

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 31%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 12%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-09-25	Developing	+23.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	+8.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+6.0%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-06-05	Developing	-37.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-03	Developing	-12.6%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-01-16	Developing	+69.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-12-05	Developing	-17.2%
Rotation Up	2025-09-26	2025-10-17	New	+62.8%
Balance	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	-6.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-09-05	Developing	+35.5%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	-38.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-05-16	Extended	-37.5%
Rotation Down	2024-09-13	2024-09-27	New	-2.2%
Balance	2024-07-05	2024-09-06	Developing	-17.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution20

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.84
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -11.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -18.4%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 92th percentile24 in cohort

Test TYM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.45×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TYM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.000741rising

Slow Activity GBP 0.000684falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.000719+11.3% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.000766+4.4% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.0005shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +13.1%

Annualized volatility +65.2%

From structural high -42.9%

From structural low +105.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-5.3%-38.0% to +52.1%	+36.4%	+36.4%	-4.9%	+59.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-22.9%-49.6% to +54.5%	+30.0%	+30.0%	-22.9%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-12.4%-52.0% to +6.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-14.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-41.6%-67.0% to +35.4%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-43.9%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TYM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map