Weekly structural research · EBS · Consumer Cyclical

AVOL Stage Analysis

Avolta AG

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CHF 42.08Tenure NewBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -71−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 13/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.8%CHF 39.05 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	42.08	47.17	-11.39	1378472	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-10-02	42.68	47.32	-9.42	1260785	Downward Expansion	-68	81
2026-09-25	42.72	47.40	-11.30	1083298	Rotation Down	-72	85
2026-09-18	41.84	47.62	-12.43	1687786	Rotation Down	-56	77
2026-09-11	43.60	47.90	-9.00	1467623	Rotation Down	-42	65
2026-09-04	44.26	48.02	-11.84	217201	Deceleration	-40	51
2026-08-28	46.20	48.15	-8.22	191759	Deceleration	-28	23
2026-08-21	47.00	48.15	-7.25	256273	Deceleration	5	11
2026-08-14	49.72	48.15	-1.66	157869	Deceleration	21	20
2026-08-07	49.58	48.01	-3.12	183966	Deceleration	20	25
2026-07-31	48.34	47.94	-4.38	382126	Deceleration	24	22
2026-07-24	46.80	47.86	-7.37	272021	Upward Expansion	25	18
2026-07-17	47.78	47.83	-5.67	314034	Upward Expansion	52	48
2026-07-10	52.85	47.76	5.01	183721	Upward Expansion	63	75
2026-07-03	54.80	47.50	7.52	162959	Upward Expansion	78	79
2026-06-26	53.75	47.23	7.45	255769	Upward Expansion	75	72
2026-06-19	51.40	46.87	5.90	730408	Balance	64	54
2026-06-12	50.40	46.55	4.49	649907	Balance	57	34
2026-06-05	47.00	46.30	-0.10	430161	Balance	26	14
2026-05-29	49.30	46.11	3.65	1407009	Balance	27	11
2026-05-22	46.22	45.84	-2.47	1548252	Balance	-14	19
2026-05-15	44.42	45.65	-4.28	1392658	Balance	-16	23
2026-05-08	45.56	45.53	-1.00	1862351	Balance	12	14
2026-05-01	41.94	45.37	-9.07	1450067	Balance	-3	4
2026-04-24	44.83	45.37	-2.98	1760813	Upward Expansion	36	33
2026-04-17	51.40	45.35	9.37	1379429	Upward Expansion	67	60
2026-04-10	50.91	45.12	10.90	1471740	Upward Expansion	61	30
2026-04-03	48.41	44.91	7.67	1317932	Upward Expansion	38	19
2026-03-27	46.02	44.75	6.23	1477782	Upward Expansion	21	21
2026-03-20	43.17	44.71	2.10	3173842	Upward Expansion	9	13
2026-03-13	46.83	44.77	6.68	1113766	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-03-06	44.83	44.72	0.57	1428762	Upward Expansion	48	35
2026-02-27	49.50	44.68	4.07	814661	Upward Expansion	70	70
2026-02-20	50.33	44.41	7.32	1169075	Upward Expansion	78	64
2026-02-13	47.19	44.13	2.91	700585	Upward Expansion	59	42
2026-02-06	48.18	43.98	6.59	650549	Upward Expansion	69	44
2026-01-30	46.13	43.81	4.20	638918	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-01-23	47.01	43.70	6.73	1009207	Upward Expansion	66	45
2026-01-16	45.43	43.53	1.31	841762	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-01-09	47.40	43.39	5.81	1098157	Upward Expansion	77	72
2026-01-02	45.98	43.20	4.21	336298	Upward Expansion	67	70
2025-12-26	45.80	43.07	4.32	277341	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-12-19	45.84	42.98	5.26	1321812	Upward Expansion	70	67
2025-12-12	45.16	42.86	6.25	809151	Balance	64	53
2025-12-05	46.43	42.79	9.12	996650	Balance	39	34
2025-11-28	43.03	42.60	2.34	934995	Balance	-22	16
2025-11-21	41.86	42.42	1.57	723926	Balance	-9	9
2025-11-14	42.97	42.20	4.60	882672	Rotation Down	-17	18
2025-11-07	41.18	41.90	3.38	944679	Rotation Down	-24	48
2025-10-31	41.18	41.61	4.25	1261194	Rotation Down	-24	43
2025-10-24	40.67	41.33	0.61	760988	Upward Expansion	-29	39
2025-10-17	40.61	41.22	0.18	803692	Upward Expansion	-11	27
2025-10-10	41.00	41.12	2.79	974281	Upward Expansion	4	14
2025-10-03	41.94	40.97	5.31	1352633	Upward Expansion	27	18
2025-09-26	44.08	40.84	16.49	605524	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-09-19	44.53	40.67	16.57	1011120	Upward Expansion	62	46
2025-09-12	44.51	40.48	16.44	497647	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-09-05	43.58	40.35	13.09	1019611	Upward Expansion	63	72
2025-08-29	44.85	40.22	18.84	815194	Upward Expansion	67	77
2025-08-22	45.16	40.04	19.78	778324	Upward Expansion	74	74
2025-08-15	45.12	39.85	22.39	876966	Upward Expansion	77	58
2025-08-08	43.64	39.59	21.34	1437522	Upward Expansion	68	42
2025-08-01	41.57	39.27	16.76	969167	Upward Expansion	45	32
2025-07-25	41.94	39.02	17.34	719231	Upward Expansion	57	53
2025-07-18	42.50	38.78	19.24	826997	Upward Expansion	59	56
2025-07-11	43.21	38.52	22.29	934160	Upward Expansion	66	52
2025-07-04	42.89	38.26	21.68	1132499	Upward Expansion	62	39
2025-06-27	41.96	37.98	19.55	968037	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-06-20	41.16	37.62	18.92	1563560	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-06-13	41.63	37.33	18.01	1024130	Upward Expansion	61	61
2025-06-06	42.19	36.99	17.92	5713394	Upward Expansion	64	74
2025-05-30	42.99	36.69	21.98	768647	Upward Expansion	71	79
2025-05-23	42.23	36.35	20.59	1132708	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-05-16	43.01	36.04	21.99	1651546	Deceleration	74	52
2025-05-09	40.88	35.71	18.72	3179273	Deceleration	53	31
2025-05-02	37.44	35.43	7.55	1266975	Deceleration	-5	14
2025-04-25	35.48	35.27	4.63	700016	Deceleration	-21	33
2025-04-18	33.93	35.23	2.57	843987	Deceleration	-22	34
2025-04-11	32.41	35.16	1.65	2262013	Deceleration	-33	34
2025-04-04	32.77	35.12	-0.85	2358952	Deceleration	-17	26
2025-03-28	37.40	35.04	2.50	1052834	Deceleration	32	24
2025-03-21	37.56	34.84	1.01	2669815	Deceleration	38	25
2025-03-14	36.51	34.65	-0.50	2082235	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-03-07	38.15	34.47	2.68	1536248	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-02-28	38.95	34.19	5.49	1614932	Upward Expansion	64	66
2025-02-21	38.82	33.91	5.68	1048312	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-02-14	40.48	33.73	11.20	1217554	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-02-07	39.77	33.50	11.56	2307672	Upward Expansion	75	87
2025-01-31	39.50	33.34	10.99	1398692	Upward Expansion	81	85
2025-01-24	39.37	33.15	13.66	1612601	Upward Expansion	84	76
2025-01-17	37.35	32.95	10.91	1603649	Upward Expansion	78	60
2025-01-10	34.05	32.86	3.18	1089120	Upward Expansion	54	44
2025-01-03	34.20	32.87	5.33	478676	Upward Expansion	56	61
2024-12-27	34.73	32.89	7.49	304342	Balance	60	63
2024-12-20	34.49	32.90	8.80	1666045	Balance	27	42
2024-12-13	35.54	32.87	9.35	1439115	Balance	38	35
2024-12-06	34.52	32.88	5.69	2075608	Balance	1	3
2024-11-29	31.05	32.90	-4.62	2295386	Balance	-44	23
2024-11-22	32.37	32.98	-0.17	1123184	Balance	-26	13
2024-11-15	31.72	32.98	-1.36	1236475	Balance	-33	14
2024-11-08	33.19	33.00	1.69	983127	Balance	-6	11
2024-11-01	32.67	33.01	-1.16	928619	Balance	-11	10
2024-10-25	32.88	33.09	-2.41	604556	Balance	-10	12
2024-10-18	33.06	33.17	-3.10	953148	Balance	-7	16
2024-10-11	32.56	33.12	-3.25	690984	Balance	-23	20
2024-10-04	32.71	33.14	-1.55	1239321	Balance	-26	19
2024-09-27	34.20	33.15	0.90	1337310	Downward Expansion	-16	10
2024-09-20	31.70	33.10	-4.25	1087838	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2024-09-13	31.34	33.16	-6.40	961846	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-09-06	30.25	33.23	-9.03	1290493	Downward Expansion	-67	49
2024-08-30	31.40	33.28	-10.00	881278	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2024-08-23	32.10	33.28	-7.82	1397876	Rotation Down	-62	69
2024-08-16	31.09	33.22	-10.01	1396750	Rotation Down	-33	58
2024-08-09	29.72	33.15	-12.21	2590505	Balance	-48	58
2024-08-02	30.40	33.14	-10.88	2265931	Balance	-34	30
2024-07-26	33.63	33.13	-5.02	1710779	Balance	14	7
2024-07-19	33.59	33.04	-5.17	1113369	Upward Expansion	25	13
2024-07-12	34.92	32.95	-3.43	1421118	Upward Expansion	40	17
2024-07-05	33.68	32.80	-4.60	1409468	Upward Expansion	32	15
2024-06-28	33.28	32.65	-6.16	1289515	Upward Expansion	32	17
2024-06-21	34.66	32.50	-2.82	1456423	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-06-14	34.45	32.31	-3.87	1569955	Upward Expansion	51	29
2024-06-07	34.92	32.15	-4.51	1739232	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-05-31	34.87	31.91	-2.94	2277847	Upward Expansion	57	46
2024-05-24	33.57	31.77	-6.30	1752384	Upward Expansion	53	40
2024-05-17	35.76	31.61	-1.44	1951812	Upward Expansion	67	46
2024-05-10	35.19	31.37	-1.04	1267835	Upward Expansion	64	31
2024-05-03	33.44	31.18	-2.26	1221021	Upward Expansion	38	19
2024-04-26	32.48	31.07	-5.92	1575426	Upward Expansion	38	23
2024-04-19	32.35	31.08	-6.20	1746227	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-04-12	33.34	31.12	-4.31	1709364	Upward Expansion	56	40
2024-04-05	35.19	31.19	-0.21	1432314	Upward Expansion	70	50
2024-03-29	35.13	31.18	-2.56	1812455	Rotation Up	74	45
2024-03-22	31.68	31.24	-11.78	1403766	Rotation Up	27	25
2024-03-15	33.26	31.40	-8.00	1780630	Rotation Up	35	48
2024-03-08	32.97	31.55	-8.96	2174443	Rotation Up	34	56
2024-03-01	32.73	31.77	-8.87	1505779	Rotation Up	35	59
2024-02-23	33.44	32.00	-7.31	1233399	Balance	36	59
2024-02-16	33.27	32.26	-6.53	1270173	Balance	17	36
2024-02-09	31.97	32.47	-8.69	1829407	Balance	-1	8
2024-02-02	31.43	32.77	-11.66	1863050	Downward Expansion	-16	14
2024-01-26	30.24	33.04	-16.46	1405020	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-01-19	28.94	33.31	-18.74	937041	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2024-01-12	29.47	33.54	-18.25	1228292	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2024-01-05	29.96	33.83	-17.00	857474	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2023-12-29	30.96	34.07	-14.22	518349	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2023-12-22	30.80	34.34	-15.09	1199889	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2023-12-15	30.50	34.61	-16.50	2580456	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2023-12-08	29.27	34.97	-19.28	1399893	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2023-12-01	28.82	35.33	-19.46	1551237	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2023-11-24	29.02	35.68	-19.13	1215119	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2023-11-17	29.66	36.00	-16.48	2284960	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2023-11-10	27.46	36.28	-21.53	2458477	Downward Expansion	-81	72
2023-11-03	30.79	36.59	-12.59	2536554	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2023-10-27	28.81	36.82	-16.22	1435453	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2023-10-20	28.57	37.12	-17.13	1940105	Downward Expansion	-83	93

Price vs TrendBelow-10.8%

Trend directionFalling-1.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-30.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.4%

Price momentumNegative-17.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-71 / ±100

-29.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

78 /100

+13.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AVOL Directional State ↗ AVOL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration38

Rotation Down79

Downward Expansion96

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-1.4%
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	-2.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-09-04	Developing	-8.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	-12.9%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-06-19	Developing	+22.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-04-24	Established	-2.2%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-12	New	+7.9%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	+4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-10-24	Established	-3.7%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-05-16	Developing	+14.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-03-14	Developing	+6.7%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-12-27	Established	+6.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-09-27	Developing	+8.9%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	+3.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing39

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.39
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -17.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -21.9%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 67th percentile3 in cohort

Test AVOL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.18×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AVOL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 42.44falling

Slow Activity CHF 46.67falling

Trend Reference CHF 47.17-10.8% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 39.05+7.8% close margin

Structural low CHF 40.79shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.7%

Annualized volatility +36.5%

From structural high -23.6%

From structural low +9.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	21	+2.5%-16.8% to +17.0%	+61.9%	+38.1%	+1.7%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-1.6%-16.4% to +26.8%	+37.5%	+62.5%	+2.5%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+9.7%-6.5% to +33.7%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+13.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-4.1%-17.4% to +42.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AVOL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map