Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

FEDU Stage Analysis

Four Seasons Education Cayman

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 11.19Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 18/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 58/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +6.6%USD 10.49 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.19	10.03	-6.01	73800	Balance	26	18
2026-10-02	9.35	9.99	-21.15	837	Balance	-19	12
2026-09-25	10.00	10.01	-16.84	1019	Downward Expansion	12	19
2026-09-18	10.22	10.01	-14.75	891	Downward Expansion	6	19
2026-09-11	10.01	10.00	-17.43	388	Downward Expansion	-19	22
2026-09-04	10.43	10.01	-15.43	4507	Downward Expansion	-14	18
2026-08-28	9.53	9.96	-23.44	1867	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2026-08-21	9.80	9.95	-21.87	4657	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2026-08-14	9.25	9.96	-28.20	12658	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2026-08-07	8.20	10.03	-37.21	36356	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2026-07-31	8.05	10.16	-37.06	3240	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2026-07-24	8.12	10.28	-36.67	6288	Balance	-83	71
2026-07-17	10.04	10.40	-23.25	198	Balance	-39	33
2026-07-10	10.04	10.43	-25.42	1118	Balance	-39	26
2026-07-03	9.64	10.55	-28.35	186	Balance	-46	21
2026-06-26	10.50	10.67	-20.67	1099	Balance	-9	5
2026-06-19	10.38	10.76	-23.55	1666	Balance	-19	11
2026-06-12	10.81	10.85	-19.98	916	Balance	-10	6
2026-06-05	10.25	10.97	-23.84	2248	Balance	-24	12
2026-05-29	10.91	11.11	-21.17	791	Balance	-11	7
2026-05-22	10.00	11.20	-26.88	546	Downward Expansion	-42	23
2026-05-15	10.30	11.33	-24.29	2999	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2026-05-08	10.50	11.46	-22.81	3246	Downward Expansion	-34	23
2026-05-01	10.42	11.55	-21.56	1603	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2026-04-24	9.58	11.68	-27.14	1370	Downward Expansion	-41	19
2026-04-17	10.65	11.82	-18.64	4965	Downward Expansion	-18	16
2026-04-10	11.00	11.94	-12.02	371	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2026-04-03	11.00	12.03	-8.43	5295	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-03-27	10.79	12.15	-7.20	13612	Deceleration	-41	27
2026-03-20	9.80	12.27	-17.67	1924	Deceleration	-46	33
2026-03-13	10.25	12.45	-15.56	4612	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2026-03-06	9.69	12.64	-21.47	9561	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2026-02-27	10.10	12.80	-19.96	36813	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2026-02-20	10.00	12.92	-21.09	37279	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2026-02-13	10.18	13.08	-18.95	29238	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2026-02-06	9.02	13.27	-29.30	190951	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2026-01-30	9.15	13.50	-28.70	95906	Downward Expansion	-84	75
2026-01-23	10.29	13.56	-19.84	433215	Downward Expansion	-77	58
2026-01-16	11.31	13.54	-12.39	1661	Downward Expansion	-69	70
2026-01-09	12.07	13.51	-6.96	3686	Rotation Down	-63	74
2026-01-02	11.69	13.43	-8.42	4491	Rotation Down	-41	65
2025-12-26	11.60	13.37	-10.14	6896	Rotation Down	-48	66
2025-12-19	11.00	13.31	-13.61	17226	Deceleration	-56	63
2025-12-12	13.48	13.27	5.83	5805	Deceleration	9	16
2025-12-05	13.35	13.12	4.29	238	Deceleration	9	10
2025-11-28	13.35	12.93	4.87	13624	Deceleration	12	6
2025-11-21	13.00	12.74	6.10	1067	Deceleration	10	6
2025-11-14	14.38	12.57	15.27	1262	Deceleration	35	19
2025-11-07	14.49	12.32	16.61	1914	Deceleration	36	18
2025-10-31	13.59	12.04	7.77	1161	Deceleration	20	10
2025-10-24	14.00	11.89	11.73	5636	Deceleration	22	13
2025-10-17	13.99	11.75	13.83	5010	Deceleration	23	13
2025-10-10	13.35	11.59	10.55	4492	Deceleration	33	17
2025-10-03	14.34	11.45	15.77	2656	Deceleration	34	18
2025-09-26	13.72	11.29	11.95	22414	Deceleration	35	19
2025-09-19	14.25	11.11	15.91	35646	Deceleration	39	24
2025-09-12	13.64	10.97	13.00	6146	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-09-05	14.50	10.86	22.18	47586	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-08-29	14.40	10.71	21.89	17991	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-08-22	15.30	10.57	28.35	1372	Upward Expansion	68	64
2025-08-15	15.95	10.40	33.96	3750	Upward Expansion	80	69
2025-08-08	14.37	10.22	22.25	5150	Upward Expansion	66	84
2025-08-01	13.94	10.07	21.70	937	Upward Expansion	67	88
2025-07-25	14.74	9.95	25.68	8999	Upward Expansion	73	90
2025-07-18	15.90	9.80	37.18	17516	Upward Expansion	92	96
2025-07-11	16.00	9.61	39.30	25812	Rotation Up	94	91
2025-07-04	10.88	9.46	-4.73	3524	Rotation Up	31	38
2025-06-27	9.62	9.44	-14.49	2884	Rotation Up	18	29
2025-06-20	10.50	9.47	-3.83	3553	Rotation Up	28	40
2025-06-13	9.70	9.48	-11.68	1264	Rotation Up	16	25
2025-06-06	9.76	9.53	-11.65	6020	Balance	17	25
2025-05-30	9.76	9.60	-10.46	2308	Balance	-11	18
2025-05-23	9.83	9.66	-8.36	5183	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2025-05-16	9.00	9.72	-18.33	22438	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-09	7.70	9.82	-26.56	4411	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2025-05-02	7.65	9.97	-27.53	12140	Downward Expansion	-59	65
2025-04-25	7.72	10.13	-24.81	14647	Downward Expansion	-60	64
2025-04-18	6.96	10.27	-29.28	71789	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2025-04-11	6.25	10.33	-37.65	203995	Downward Expansion	-78	54
2025-04-04	8.91	10.48	-6.71	38133	Downward Expansion	-57	32
2025-03-28	9.80	10.56	-6.60	15292	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2025-03-21	9.20	10.80	-13.68	7281	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-03-14	9.28	10.96	-12.63	22086	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-03-07	9.47	11.05	-12.96	44476	Downward Expansion	-53	43
2025-02-28	8.23	11.11	-26.73	9888	Downward Expansion	-73	50
2025-02-21	10.17	11.22	-10.64	13177	Downward Expansion	-48	25
2025-02-14	10.30	11.35	-10.68	22258	Downward Expansion	-48	25
2025-02-07	10.01	11.42	-11.67	19815	Downward Expansion	-53	28
2025-01-31	10.29	11.40	-9.27	8740	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2025-01-24	10.18	11.41	-11.19	8814	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2025-01-17	10.49	11.42	-7.00	36721	Downward Expansion	-54	43
2025-01-10	10.00	11.47	-8.78	34712	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-01-03	10.30	11.47	-7.95	9345	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-12-27	10.10	11.45	-10.31	8605	Balance	-61	48
2024-12-20	10.35	11.43	-7.62	12093	Balance	-30	33
2024-12-13	11.32	11.40	-0.90	8814	Balance	-23	29
2024-12-06	10.46	11.32	-8.95	7440	Balance	-28	37
2024-11-29	10.52	11.24	-7.71	4392	Balance	-15	21
2024-11-22	10.80	11.14	-4.27	4432	Balance	9	10
2024-11-15	10.96	11.06	-1.30	8226	Balance	12	7
2024-11-08	11.88	10.97	4.76	27450	Upward Expansion	31	12
2024-11-01	11.60	10.89	7.39	17426	Upward Expansion	32	15
2024-10-25	11.73	10.79	7.56	11845	Upward Expansion	32	17
2024-10-18	11.99	10.71	9.16	7258	Upward Expansion	22	12
2024-10-11	12.18	10.62	12.14	17263	Upward Expansion	28	15
2024-10-04	12.40	10.51	15.99	23763	Upward Expansion	27	19
2024-09-27	11.85	10.38	11.61	45441	Upward Expansion	23	20
2024-09-20	8.82	10.28	-16.21	17755	Upward Expansion	11	8
2024-09-13	10.78	10.22	3.73	8187	Upward Expansion	46	31
2024-09-06	11.35	10.09	13.66	34909	Upward Expansion	55	41
2024-08-30	17.01	9.97	63.60	94327	Upward Expansion	80	60
2024-08-23	14.09	9.69	37.33	9280	Upward Expansion	68	41
2024-08-16	11.94	9.51	18.55	5811	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-08-09	11.21	9.40	15.63	20082	Upward Expansion	56	49
2024-08-02	11.41	9.31	17.90	3598	Upward Expansion	56	45
2024-07-26	14.09	9.22	42.82	11104	Upward Expansion	79	61
2024-07-19	12.33	9.03	24.77	21096	Upward Expansion	72	43
2024-07-12	9.69	8.91	-3.74	1307	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-07-05	10.52	8.87	5.24	473	Upward Expansion	59	59
2024-06-28	10.52	8.79	7.33	2347	Upward Expansion	60	61
2024-06-21	11.74	8.73	20.23	15541	Upward Expansion	79	71
2024-06-14	10.10	8.62	4.78	500	Balance	63	58
2024-06-07	9.88	8.56	4.55	37239	Balance	58	45
2024-05-31	9.37	8.49	0.52	2966	Balance	55	37
2024-05-24	9.51	8.40	1.67	2078	Balance	53	20
2024-05-17	8.81	8.33	-6.05	1098	Balance	10	13
2024-05-10	8.19	8.28	-11.42	4046	Balance	-1	13
2024-05-03	7.45	8.25	-18.40	1319	Balance	-12	13
2024-04-26	8.32	8.25	-8.92	3421	Upward Expansion	28	14
2024-04-19	8.46	8.22	-5.71	1043	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-04-12	9.23	8.18	-0.80	664	Upward Expansion	62	56
2024-04-05	8.55	8.14	-9.84	381	Upward Expansion	58	59
2024-03-29	9.50	8.14	-1.06	1475	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-03-22	9.25	8.12	-3.30	4428	Balance	69	51
2024-03-15	8.84	8.12	-5.51	8673	Balance	52	32
2024-03-08	8.63	8.15	-7.91	1647	Rotation Down	-1	14
2024-03-01	8.71	8.14	-7.63	4187	Rotation Down	-7	30
2024-02-23	7.06	8.14	-25.03	1305	Rotation Down	-80	89
2024-02-16	7.03	8.20	-24.70	3947	Rotation Down	-59	57
2024-02-09	7.74	8.27	-18.00	2480	Upward Expansion	-21	18
2024-02-02	8.59	8.30	-8.39	648	Upward Expansion	29	34
2024-01-26	8.59	8.28	-7.05	199	Upward Expansion	31	35
2024-01-19	8.59	8.22	-5.93	193	Upward Expansion	32	34
2024-01-12	8.59	8.16	-4.85	124	Upward Expansion	52	54
2024-01-05	8.59	8.10	-3.08	189	Upward Expansion	54	58
2023-12-29	8.59	8.06	-4.17	286	Upward Expansion	55	57
2023-12-22	8.59	8.01	-3.72	674	Rotation Up	56	62
2023-12-15	8.59	8.00	-2.47	1095	Rotation Up	37	49
2023-12-08	8.19	7.98	-4.71	3334	Rotation Up	26	33
2023-12-01	8.54	7.99	-0.41	413	Downward Expansion	15	29
2023-11-24	8.54	7.99	0.52	1757	Downward Expansion	10	16
2023-11-17	8.28	8.02	-1.40	5973	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2023-11-10	7.66	8.05	-6.50	1720	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2023-11-03	6.87	8.10	-15.15	1258	Downward Expansion	-73	63
2023-10-27	7.27	8.14	-5.41	5755	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2023-10-20	7.32	8.13	-7.36	405	Rotation Down	-64	66

Price vs TrendAbove+11.6%

Trend directionFalling-1.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+19.4%

Price momentumPositive+1.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led9.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

26 / ±100

+44.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

18 /100

-4.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FEDU Directional State ↗ FEDU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up52

Upward Expansion41

Deceleration33

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 27%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 34%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+19.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-09-25	Developing	+24.2%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-07-24	Developing	-25.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-05-22	Developing	-9.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	+10.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-03-13	Developing	-9.4%
Rotation Down	2025-12-26	2026-01-09	New	+4.1%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-12-19	Established	-22.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-12	Developing	-14.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-07-11	Developing	+64.9%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-06	New	+0.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-05-23	Established	-4.6%
Balance	2024-11-15	2024-12-27	Developing	-7.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-11-08	Established	+1.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing56

Stage 3 · Distribution43

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 43/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.01
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +1.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.2%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 8th percentile24 in cohort

Test FEDU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume9.54×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume9.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FEDU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 10.25rising

Slow Activity USD 9.87rising

Trend Reference USD 10.03+11.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 10.49+6.6% close margin

Structural low USD 6.79shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +12.7%

Annualized volatility +56.0%

From structural high -24.0%

From structural low +67.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	+3.8%-22.7% to +37.9%	+64.3%	+64.3%	+4.5%	+35.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-5.3%-34.0% to +47.5%	+44.4%	+44.4%	-10.5%	+11.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-4.6%-58.6% to +36.8%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-14.4%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+5.6%-45.1% to +31.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-14.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FEDU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map