Weekly structural research · TWO · Technology

4991 Stage Analysis

GCS Holdings, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TWD 463.50Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -36−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 65/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +163.5%TWD 175.89 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	463.50	518.53	-3.12	21871024	Balance	-36	20
2026-09-18	474.00	514.58	1.44	21391201	Balance	-32	18
2026-09-11	448.50	507.75	-1.18	6694777	Balance	-8	12
2026-09-04	497.00	501.57	9.45	34709805	Balance	-3	12
2026-08-28	520.00	492.77	15.98	30296510	Deceleration	-6	12
2026-08-21	481.00	482.25	10.94	8615067	Deceleration	-16	18
2026-08-14	460.00	472.93	5.59	910644	Rotation Down	-21	26
2026-08-07	465.00	464.82	11.34	1204397	Rotation Down	-23	48
2026-07-31	353.00	456.87	-12.72	345100	Rotation Down	-35	56
2026-07-24	417.00	452.78	2.15	12344877	Deceleration	-25	36
2026-07-17	360.00	445.22	-9.23	4002916	Deceleration	-16	26
2026-07-10	461.50	439.05	9.87	24938037	Deceleration	-1	15
2026-07-03	578.00	429.10	34.48	6610148	Deceleration	26	23
2026-06-26	507.00	415.40	25.73	3873787	Deceleration	29	24
2026-06-19	566.00	403.50	36.61	21531450	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-06-12	554.00	390.00	43.16	27411703	Upward Expansion	49	41
2026-06-05	654.00	376.85	68.99	22392012	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-05-29	730.00	361.13	94.81	30170775	Upward Expansion	68	63
2026-05-22	814.00	341.55	136.64	5398061	Upward Expansion	87	72
2026-05-15	642.00	319.12	98.66	4712256	Upward Expansion	67	65
2026-05-08	644.00	302.37	102.80	37457574	Upward Expansion	71	68
2026-05-01	676.00	285.65	133.95	17169428	Upward Expansion	84	80
2026-04-24	596.00	267.52	113.25	4826205	Upward Expansion	77	83
2026-04-17	660.00	253.28	157.00	15115530	Upward Expansion	96	96
2026-04-10	552.00	236.43	132.05	4537404	Upward Expansion	93	89
2026-04-03	435.00	222.90	104.90	3553914	Upward Expansion	78	77
2026-03-27	446.00	213.75	111.48	67877885	Upward Expansion	88	83
2026-03-20	427.00	204.07	105.10	35165307	Upward Expansion	93	94
2026-03-13	331.50	195.20	63.80	4161194	Upward Expansion	74	88
2026-03-06	343.00	189.42	70.90	7619804	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-02-27	345.00	183.60	65.59	6693496	Upward Expansion	94	96
2026-02-13	269.00	177.33	37.68	22497330	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-02-06	263.00	173.50	43.30	62665644	Upward Expansion	86	64
2026-01-30	233.00	169.83	26.73	7960310	Upward Expansion	78	57
2026-01-23	204.50	166.83	12.09	11529812	Upward Expansion	63	53
2026-01-16	201.50	163.82	12.75	38758395	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-01-09	216.50	160.48	25.82	3976804	Upward Expansion	70	86
2026-01-02	226.50	156.28	36.71	4740900	Upward Expansion	86	92
2025-12-26	230.50	151.23	43.89	49817937	Upward Expansion	92	87
2025-12-19	190.01	146.12	23.41	29650492	Upward Expansion	74	63
2025-12-12	175.00	142.60	12.74	9367972	Upward Expansion	63	36
2025-12-05	163.00	139.84	6.35	40247696	Upward Expansion	52	29
2025-11-28	167.00	137.44	10.93	55239589	Upward Expansion	56	32
2025-11-21	150.00	135.04	4.86	6394591	Upward Expansion	50	38
2025-11-14	161.00	133.12	9.34	7920928	Upward Expansion	51	46
2025-11-07	159.50	130.90	8.13	57645539	Deceleration	41	33
2025-10-31	182.50	128.41	22.29	99943988	Deceleration	57	31
2025-10-24	142.50	126.06	-0.73	22105507	Deceleration	15	14
2025-10-17	141.00	125.36	-0.04	27594558	Deceleration	15	18
2025-10-10	139.50	124.38	-0.08	12225359	Deceleration	29	17
2025-10-03	142.50	123.44	5.40	26973003	Deceleration	34	19
2025-09-26	132.00	122.79	3.51	65361923	Upward Expansion	34	20
2025-09-19	169.00	122.63	34.30	41173402	Upward Expansion	66	41
2025-09-12	154.50	121.86	25.67	3473039	Upward Expansion	44	32
2025-09-05	146.00	121.31	25.62	41090966	Upward Expansion	47	37
2025-08-29	160.50	121.28	42.01	47185899	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-08-22	155.50	120.56	43.19	6619944	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-08-15	161.00	119.58	47.78	87526494	Upward Expansion	67	62
2025-08-08	158.00	118.78	50.01	126105079	Rotation Up	68	84
2025-08-01	168.50	117.54	67.57	12210842	Rotation Up	56	84
2025-07-25	157.00	116.49	60.61	18905178	Rotation Up	51	82
2025-07-18	154.00	115.34	61.14	147062570	Rotation Up	47	80
2025-07-11	153.00	113.31	68.38	254772650	Rotation Up	50	65
2025-07-04	143.00	111.91	62.53	191611063	Rotation Up	42	42
2025-06-27	114.00	110.38	32.20	155299667	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2025-06-20	101.50	109.68	22.38	171849934	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2025-06-13	90.30	109.15	10.09	118653910	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2025-06-06	75.10	109.12	-5.67	18034762	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2025-05-30	77.20	109.08	-0.83	22178348	Rotation Down	-76	72
2025-05-23	84.50	108.61	8.11	18221526	Rotation Down	-43	50
2025-05-16	92.10	107.92	18.20	71328228	Rotation Down	-35	45
2025-05-09	91.00	106.70	23.68	49436982	Rotation Down	-37	51
2025-05-02	95.10	105.08	32.12	51330689	Rotation Down	-25	53
2025-04-25	92.40	103.32	36.66	76408283	Rotation Down	-30	52
2025-04-18	94.40	101.54	45.67	84745809	Deceleration	-28	41
2025-04-11	84.70	99.64	32.42	21136146	Deceleration	-18	25
2025-04-04	112.00	98.15	63.30	36963248	Deceleration	6	15
2025-03-28	121.50	95.71	78.65	143150513	Deceleration	16	18
2025-03-21	111.50	92.94	63.64	61284553	Deceleration	26	22
2025-03-14	111.50	90.50	69.17	101149690	Deceleration	37	21
2025-03-07	123.00	88.08	85.86	98780353	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-02-28	127.00	85.21	92.77	57414342	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-02-21	146.00	82.17	121.05	114332263	Upward Expansion	68	56
2025-02-14	138.00	78.59	121.07	176767580	Upward Expansion	62	55
2025-02-07	145.00	75.38	136.31	93449740	Upward Expansion	73	62
2025-01-24	139.00	72.08	133.84	82781000	Upward Expansion	72	63
2025-01-17	126.00	69.00	122.55	105948000	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-01-10	137.00	66.42	150.60	146596000	Upward Expansion	78	70
2025-01-03	121.00	63.50	130.12	62123000	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-12-27	137.00	60.91	164.07	192907000	Upward Expansion	90	75
2024-12-20	122.50	57.74	153.11	124974000	Upward Expansion	89	75
2024-12-13	93.00	54.88	94.18	87284000	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-12-06	111.00	52.97	134.77	135222000	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-11-29	97.20	50.41	120.19	76652000	Upward Expansion	85	90
2024-11-22	92.80	48.17	109.36	6601328	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-11-15	85.80	46.05	99.16	8519000	Upward Expansion	88	96
2024-11-08	89.40	44.15	104.27	148976000	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-11-01	73.70	42.16	77.32	15237000	Upward Expansion	96	99
2024-10-25	63.20	40.71	50.14	5187000	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-10-18	63.90	39.62	51.86	47529000	Upward Expansion	93	95
2024-10-11	55.30	38.47	35.73	20655000	Deceleration	87	80
2024-10-04	42.55	37.61	7.71	221000	Deceleration	45	27
2024-09-27	42.10	37.18	4.04	1258000	Deceleration	41	22
2024-09-20	39.00	36.80	-0.89	89000	Deceleration	23	13
2024-09-13	37.65	36.53	-2.76	229000	Deceleration	17	10
2024-09-06	39.90	36.28	4.47	386000	Deceleration	24	12
2024-08-30	38.80	35.95	-2.40	328000	Deceleration	12	10
2024-08-23	38.35	35.66	-3.20	436000	Deceleration	10	14
2024-08-16	38.25	35.40	-4.44	373000	Deceleration	9	20
2024-08-09	39.10	35.18	1.51	686000	Deceleration	19	27
2024-08-02	36.90	34.92	-5.07	709000	Deceleration	18	29
2024-07-26	35.70	34.76	-10.44	680000	Deceleration	23	26
2024-07-19	38.65	34.63	-6.57	1347000	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-07-12	41.70	34.41	-3.92	1616000	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-07-05	46.00	34.12	7.39	770000	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-06-28	46.40	33.68	10.61	1002000	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-06-21	48.85	33.23	15.43	1208000	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-06-14	49.40	32.71	20.86	2238000	Upward Expansion	97	98
2024-06-07	43.30	32.15	9.59	631000	Upward Expansion	91	96
2024-05-31	41.95	31.84	9.80	1360000	Rotation Up	92	95
2024-05-24	36.45	31.61	-6.19	270000	Rotation Up	52	68
2024-05-17	35.75	31.53	-6.74	915000	Rotation Up	40	39
2024-05-10	34.35	31.47	-8.10	1146000	Rotation Up	10	12
2024-05-03	30.00	31.45	-18.40	387000	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2024-04-26	29.00	31.56	-20.76	161000	Downward Expansion	-64	43
2024-04-19	28.95	31.67	-19.09	133000	Downward Expansion	-67	40
2024-04-12	29.65	31.77	-22.56	273000	Downward Expansion	-59	36
2024-04-05	30.10	31.83	-20.48	116000	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2024-03-29	30.65	31.95	-19.45	669000	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-03-22	29.30	31.98	-23.33	254000	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2024-03-15	29.60	32.04	-21.02	217000	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2024-03-08	29.50	32.07	-22.35	248000	Downward Expansion	-70	45
2024-03-01	30.75	32.16	-16.16	211000	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-02-23	30.90	32.26	-16.19	338000	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2024-02-16	30.10	32.36	-17.76	99000	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2024-02-09	30.10	32.49	-16.15	27000	Downward Expansion	-69	70
2024-02-02	30.00	32.60	-16.90	168000	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2024-01-26	30.70	32.77	-15.33	122000	Downward Expansion	-68	57
2024-01-19	31.70	32.84	-11.79	92000	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2024-01-12	31.10	32.88	-13.29	78000	Balance	-69	56
2024-01-05	32.05	32.86	-11.42	34000	Balance	-20	30
2023-12-29	32.00	32.81	-14.33	45000	Balance	-20	23
2023-12-22	32.10	32.77	-13.15	115000	Balance	-21	18
2023-12-15	32.85	32.67	-12.21	121000	Balance	20	15
2023-12-08	32.85	32.53	-11.44	148000	Balance	21	17
2023-12-01	33.00	32.38	-11.92	91000	Upward Expansion	30	17
2023-11-24	33.15	32.34	-11.38	72000	Upward Expansion	36	19
2023-11-17	32.55	32.34	-13.19	215000	Upward Expansion	46	30
2023-11-10	34.20	32.41	-6.83	89000	Upward Expansion	57	56
2023-11-03	34.85	32.44	-4.53	494000	Upward Expansion	66	61
2023-10-27	34.15	32.44	-4.82	152000	Balance	58	54
2023-10-20	34.00	32.48	-7.60	318000	Balance	28	36
2023-10-13	33.75	32.53	-10.77	184000	Balance	16	17
2023-10-06	33.05	32.62	-11.81	157000	Balance	-12	6
2023-09-29	32.50	32.73	-12.95	161000	Balance	-20	9
2023-09-22	31.80	32.90	-15.40	131000	Balance	-46	19

Price vs TrendBelow-10.6%

Trend directionRising+16.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+163.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-97.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-28.9%

Price momentumPositive+3.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.86×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-36 / ±100

-30.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

20 /100

+8.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

4991 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up25

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration37

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion61

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 45%Deceleration 20%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 13%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-6.7%
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-08-28	New	+8.1%
Rotation Down	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	+30.3%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	-17.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-06-19	Extended	+251.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-07	Developing	+11.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-26	Developing	-18.0%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	+10.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+51.8%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-30	Developing	-16.5%
Deceleration	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	-15.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2025-03-07	Established	+92.5%
Deceleration	2024-07-26	2024-10-11	Developing	+54.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-07	2024-07-19	Developing	-10.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing14

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 66/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.12
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +3.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -41.1%
Technology regime cohort: 81th percentile138 in cohort

Test 4991 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.51×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.86×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 4991 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 471.53falling

Slow Activity TWD 509.11falling

Trend Reference TWD 518.53-10.6% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 175.89+163.5% close margin

Structural low TWD 350.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +18.7%

Annualized volatility +101.7%

From structural high -48.2%

From structural low +260.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	-1.5%-10.3% to +15.3%	+29.4%	+29.4%	-1.8%	+58.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-6.8%-22.6% to +8.0%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-11.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-6.8%-16.1% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-13.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-21.0%-22.3% to +24.6%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-11.8%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

4991 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map