Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Defensive

BN Stage Analysis

Danone S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 58.92Tenure NewBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -83−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 93/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.8%EUR 63.25 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	58.92	65.78	-27.34	227	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2026-09-25	59.50	66.07	-29.69	518	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2026-09-18	60.26	66.43	-28.02	209	Rotation Down	-78	85
2026-09-11	62.18	66.81	-27.41	880	Rotation Down	-53	69
2026-09-04	63.38	67.05	-26.46	288	Deceleration	-49	49
2026-08-28	64.26	67.18	-25.39	0	Deceleration	-23	33
2026-08-21	66.14	67.16	-22.06	0	Deceleration	10	25
2026-08-14	67.40	67.12	-22.35	100	Deceleration	31	28
2026-08-07	68.08	67.31	-21.12	0	Rotation Up	44	28
2026-07-31	67.50	67.51	-19.96	343	Rotation Up	33	36
2026-07-24	70.22	67.72	-17.35	278	Rotation Up	38	71
2026-07-17	73.22	67.85	-12.99	139	Rotation Up	49	81
2026-07-10	72.30	67.91	-16.05	0	Rotation Up	38	72
2026-07-03	73.46	67.94	-16.18	0	Rotation Up	49	54
2026-06-26	72.50	67.96	-15.70	642	Rotation Up	22	33
2026-06-19	65.22	68.02	-25.99	150	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2026-06-12	66.94	68.36	-21.44	140	Downward Expansion	-38	30
2026-06-05	64.36	68.67	-22.90	1	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-05-29	61.12	69.05	-28.11	292	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2026-05-22	61.72	69.48	-26.06	0	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2026-05-15	61.90	69.93	-24.94	134	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2026-05-08	63.14	70.38	-24.32	8	Downward Expansion	-73	70
2026-05-01	64.23	70.72	-22.46	31	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2026-04-24	65.43	70.94	-21.14	642	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2026-04-17	65.60	71.11	-24.25	676	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-04-10	66.59	71.31	-21.90	476	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2026-04-03	67.21	71.49	-16.74	298	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2026-03-27	64.91	71.66	-17.39	784	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2026-03-20	66.59	71.79	-14.42	271	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2026-03-13	69.12	71.95	-12.65	7	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2026-03-06	67.67	71.96	-16.98	540	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2026-02-27	70.34	72.02	-18.53	646	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2026-02-20	71.46	72.01	-19.08	1565	Rotation Down	-60	50
2026-02-13	69.52	71.77	-19.04	2852	Rotation Down	-37	72
2026-02-06	67.13	71.63	-22.73	2633	Rotation Down	-38	75
2026-01-30	63.79	71.59	-26.17	1227	Rotation Down	-56	81
2026-01-23	64.98	71.68	-24.10	1482	Rotation Down	-50	59
2026-01-16	72.93	71.76	-14.49	331	Deceleration	13	12
2026-01-09	74.16	71.62	-12.27	131	Deceleration	35	22
2026-01-02	73.74	71.50	-12.26	0	Deceleration	35	19
2025-12-26	74.10	71.43	-10.38	0	Deceleration	37	21
2025-12-19	75.07	71.40	-9.27	63	Deceleration	45	27
2025-12-12	73.43	71.33	-9.23	137	Upward Expansion	42	28
2025-12-05	73.83	71.26	-8.61	0	Upward Expansion	48	42
2025-11-28	74.53	71.20	-6.71	182	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-11-21	75.28	71.12	-1.69	0	Upward Expansion	63	69
2025-11-14	76.19	70.98	-2.01	0	Upward Expansion	73	79
2025-11-07	75.79	70.75	-0.67	202	Upward Expansion	73	81
2025-10-31	74.12	70.46	-4.11	137	Upward Expansion	63	75
2025-10-24	75.15	70.29	-0.09	337	Upward Expansion	73	70
2025-10-17	75.40	70.00	2.03	120	Upward Expansion	78	58
2025-10-10	73.20	69.74	-2.86	745	Upward Expansion	69	40
2025-10-03	70.82	69.54	-7.92	1650	Upward Expansion	45	34
2025-09-26	70.65	69.40	-6.32	670	Upward Expansion	49	46
2025-09-19	71.50	69.21	-4.85	19	Upward Expansion	50	45
2025-09-12	72.25	68.97	-4.41	0	Rotation Up	61	56
2025-09-05	72.23	68.67	-3.54	0	Rotation Up	63	43
2025-08-29	68.91	68.34	-8.46	0	Rotation Up	32	32
2025-08-22	71.38	68.16	-8.69	84	Rotation Down	58	46
2025-08-15	69.31	67.81	-12.49	0	Rotation Down	14	18
2025-08-08	69.39	67.54	-10.21	0	Rotation Down	3	11
2025-08-01	70.10	67.26	-4.05	286	Rotation Down	-9	34
2025-07-25	64.15	66.96	-14.53	0	Rotation Down	-48	78
2025-07-18	65.45	66.83	-11.15	0	Deceleration	-40	66
2025-07-11	65.74	66.64	-10.76	0	Deceleration	-22	42
2025-07-04	66.68	66.49	-7.46	141	Deceleration	-10	29
2025-06-27	67.19	66.31	-7.45	100	Deceleration	16	23
2025-06-20	69.00	66.08	-3.07	0	Upward Expansion	44	34
2025-06-13	70.43	65.83	-1.47	40	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-06-06	71.77	65.51	-1.69	0	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-05-30	72.98	65.18	0.57	30	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-05-23	72.94	64.82	1.68	141	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-05-16	71.55	64.44	-1.27	0	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-05-09	72.02	64.08	2.44	8	Upward Expansion	78	89
2025-05-02	72.14	63.72	7.56	0	Upward Expansion	84	77
2025-04-25	70.87	63.31	7.49	50	Upward Expansion	82	67
2025-04-18	69.36	63.00	9.41	150	Upward Expansion	77	63
2025-04-11	67.03	62.71	11.81	100	Upward Expansion	64	58
2025-04-04	68.97	62.51	14.06	100	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-03-28	66.66	62.25	-0.23	156	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-03-21	67.39	62.00	-1.04	0	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-03-14	67.33	61.67	-1.96	0	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-03-07	66.70	61.32	-2.74	154	Upward Expansion	90	90
2025-02-28	64.97	60.98	-2.02	380	Upward Expansion	82	83
2025-02-21	64.18	60.73	-0.87	0	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-02-14	63.13	60.43	-3.41	150	Upward Expansion	72	72
2025-02-07	62.43	60.16	0.43	150	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-01-31	63.48	59.92	2.45	50	Deceleration	80	60
2025-01-24	60.93	59.65	-1.16	0	Deceleration	35	22
2025-01-17	61.12	59.41	0.82	139	Deceleration	37	21
2025-01-10	61.12	59.22	4.31	0	Deceleration	26	15
2025-01-03	60.97	59.05	4.14	0	Deceleration	22	14
2024-12-27	60.27	58.89	3.62	0	Deceleration	21	14
2024-12-20	59.77	58.73	4.07	0	Deceleration	28	18
2024-12-13	61.31	58.59	5.18	57	Deceleration	44	29
2024-12-06	61.23	58.42	7.10	459	Deceleration	43	30
2024-11-29	60.40	58.25	7.11	153	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-11-22	61.31	58.03	9.03	0	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-11-15	61.12	57.79	8.12	0	Upward Expansion	62	54
2024-11-08	61.74	57.49	9.55	0	Upward Expansion	65	58
2024-11-01	62.09	57.19	11.08	0	Upward Expansion	74	62
2024-10-25	61.76	56.86	9.01	0	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-10-18	60.72	56.61	5.99	0	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-10-11	61.02	56.38	6.97	280	Upward Expansion	70	64
2024-10-04	59.97	56.14	5.57	0	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-09-27	61.40	55.92	7.15	107	Upward Expansion	76	90
2024-09-20	60.85	55.66	7.40	75	Upward Expansion	75	90
2024-09-13	60.97	55.50	8.16	158	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-09-06	61.27	55.34	9.55	72	Upward Expansion	94	94
2024-08-30	59.15	55.17	1.75	0	Upward Expansion	86	83
2024-08-23	57.29	55.06	-0.31	169	Upward Expansion	69	75
2024-08-16	56.97	55.00	0.83	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-08-09	56.37	54.96	1.65	0	Upward Expansion	58	59
2024-08-02	57.62	54.92	4.92	0	Deceleration	74	54
2024-07-26	55.13	54.82	-3.47	0	Deceleration	29	14
2024-07-19	55.13	54.75	-3.56	0	Deceleration	28	19
2024-07-12	55.20	54.68	-4.40	0	Deceleration	30	21
2024-07-05	55.18	54.58	-4.62	0	Deceleration	34	20
2024-06-28	53.85	54.53	-4.52	0	Upward Expansion	20	16
2024-06-21	55.33	54.52	-1.54	100	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-06-14	56.03	54.45	1.16	0	Upward Expansion	64	66
2024-06-07	56.27	54.32	-1.81	8	Upward Expansion	71	77
2024-05-31	55.43	54.13	-4.09	0	Upward Expansion	60	72
2024-05-24	55.50	53.98	-5.58	0	Deceleration	57	58
2024-05-17	56.37	53.77	-4.43	0	Deceleration	64	50
2024-05-10	55.95	53.52	-3.69	150	Deceleration	53	33
2024-05-03	53.94	53.20	-4.88	0	Deceleration	2	13
2024-04-26	53.99	52.96	-3.83	0	Deceleration	-3	27
2024-04-19	52.36	52.74	-6.53	0	Deceleration	-32	51
2024-04-12	52.47	52.63	-6.96	0	Deceleration	-16	30
2024-04-05	52.23	52.51	-7.81	0	Deceleration	-19	27
2024-03-29	54.35	52.38	-3.43	171	Deceleration	12	24
2024-03-22	53.88	52.19	-3.29	150	Deceleration	22	35
2024-03-15	53.87	52.01	-0.88	25	Deceleration	32	34
2024-03-08	53.20	51.81	-1.15	0	Upward Expansion	38	29
2024-03-01	53.61	51.70	-0.19	0	Upward Expansion	55	53
2024-02-23	56.15	51.56	4.67	204	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-02-16	56.15	51.38	4.36	0	Upward Expansion	74	87
2024-02-09	56.15	51.18	6.31	40	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-02-02	55.80	50.99	3.63	170	Upward Expansion	75	91
2024-01-26	55.48	50.81	2.98	25	Upward Expansion	73	89
2024-01-19	55.87	50.65	7.58	62	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-01-12	55.10	50.48	4.82	0	Upward Expansion	82	77
2024-01-05	54.68	50.29	3.46	150	Upward Expansion	83	66
2023-12-29	53.08	50.12	0.64	0	Upward Expansion	66	60
2023-12-22	52.98	50.02	1.45	0	Upward Expansion	65	69
2023-12-15	52.30	49.99	1.42	0	Upward Expansion	67	83
2023-12-08	53.44	50.01	5.39	0	Rotation Up	76	91
2023-12-01	53.71	50.02	6.39	0	Rotation Up	59	83
2023-11-24	53.05	50.00	7.42	0	Rotation Up	50	75
2023-11-17	52.29	49.98	5.58	150	Rotation Up	47	51
2023-11-10	50.47	49.99	4.47	10	Downward Expansion	9	30
2023-11-03	50.97	50.03	6.39	0	Downward Expansion	-1	14
2023-10-27	49.36	50.08	8.94	0	Downward Expansion	-41	34
2023-10-20	48.77	50.09	7.33	6	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2023-10-13	46.39	50.10	-1.42	194	Downward Expansion	-83	88

Price vs TrendBelow-10.4%

Trend directionFalling-2.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-25.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-27.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-11.2%

Price momentumNegative-12.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.05×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-83 / ±100

-33.7 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

93 /100

+43.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BN Directional State ↗ BN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down87

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 24%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-1.0%
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-3.1%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-6.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-08-07	Developing	-6.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-06-19	Established	-7.3%
Rotation Down	2026-01-23	2026-02-20	Developing	+10.0%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-01-16	Developing	-2.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-12-12	Established	+2.7%
Rotation Up	2025-08-29	2025-09-12	New	+4.9%
Rotation Down	2025-07-25	2025-08-22	Developing	+11.3%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-07-18	New	-2.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-06-20	Established	+10.5%
Deceleration	2024-12-06	2025-01-31	Developing	+3.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-11-29	Established	+7.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution34

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -27.34
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -12.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -35.4%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 93th percentile14 in cohort

Test BN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.08×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.05×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 6

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 60.07falling

Slow Activity EUR 65.35falling

Trend Reference EUR 65.78-10.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 63.25-6.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 57.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +21.9%

From structural high -23.6%

From structural low +2.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	+2.1%-8.6% to +12.3%	+58.8%	+41.2%	-1.2%	+76.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.4%-13.1% to +8.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-4.6%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+5.5%-8.6% to +26.0%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+4.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+5.8%-8.1% to +19.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+11.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map