Weekly structural research · JPX · Communication Services

2411 Stage Analysis

Gendai Agency Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 472.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 49/100directional strength

Maturity 11/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +22.9%JPY 383.94 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	472.00	463.39	-11.20	28300	Rotation Up	63	49
2026-09-18	470.00	463.67	-10.18	87800	Rotation Up	34	49
2026-09-11	470.00	463.70	-9.15	52100	Rotation Up	37	53
2026-09-04	470.00	463.43	-10.94	58200	Rotation Up	28	49
2026-08-28	473.00	463.26	-12.76	52200	Rotation Up	39	50
2026-08-21	465.00	462.89	-14.29	1600	Balance	18	27
2026-08-14	465.00	463.73	-18.23	12200	Balance	18	23
2026-08-07	465.00	464.28	-14.91	7000	Balance	-2	12
2026-07-31	462.00	464.28	-14.38	5200	Balance	-7	17
2026-07-24	464.00	463.98	-14.87	10300	Balance	-13	21
2026-07-17	460.00	463.88	-15.49	82500	Balance	-23	19
2026-07-10	466.00	463.72	-20.40	10000	Downward Expansion	-19	16
2026-07-03	463.00	463.20	-22.76	26600	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2026-06-26	450.00	462.81	-24.98	1800	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2026-06-19	453.00	462.98	-26.93	11700	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2026-06-12	449.00	462.82	-22.40	6200	Rotation Down	-59	64
2026-06-05	440.00	462.64	-25.07	25300	Rotation Down	-47	60
2026-05-29	452.00	462.88	-23.27	61400	Deceleration	-32	39
2026-05-22	451.00	462.63	-20.33	118300	Deceleration	-24	24
2026-05-15	456.00	462.74	-17.37	189400	Deceleration	-0	8
2026-05-08	467.00	462.09	-17.53	24200	Deceleration	43	24
2026-05-01	463.00	460.24	-14.24	81400	Deceleration	40	28
2026-04-24	471.00	458.22	-13.45	483100	Deceleration	48	36
2026-04-17	494.00	456.29	-7.79	393400	Deceleration	69	36
2026-04-10	466.00	453.38	-11.07	69800	Deceleration	19	11
2026-04-03	467.00	451.46	-4.88	353700	Deceleration	21	13
2026-03-27	461.00	449.86	-6.81	115600	Deceleration	31	16
2026-03-20	462.95	448.62	-6.57	75200	Deceleration	37	22
2026-03-13	462.95	447.43	-7.48	103600	Deceleration	41	28
2026-03-06	470.75	445.84	-9.10	183000	Upward Expansion	52	34
2026-02-27	480.49	443.96	-12.48	113000	Upward Expansion	59	37
2026-02-20	470.75	441.37	-11.37	92600	Upward Expansion	46	28
2026-02-13	461.97	439.20	-13.29	182000	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-02-06	464.90	437.04	-8.56	149700	Upward Expansion	61	63
2026-01-30	461.97	434.30	-7.59	468600	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-01-23	490.24	431.38	-2.88	428700	Upward Expansion	87	90
2026-01-16	481.47	427.39	-4.65	227700	Upward Expansion	83	79
2026-01-09	464.90	423.67	-4.33	127600	Upward Expansion	69	50
2026-01-02	453.20	420.37	-3.67	42700	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-12-26	461.00	417.64	-2.66	101100	Upward Expansion	68	49
2025-12-19	455.15	414.57	-1.26	110200	Upward Expansion	63	48
2025-12-12	450.28	411.40	-4.68	104900	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-12-05	451.25	408.56	-3.68	51500	Upward Expansion	64	51
2025-11-28	455.15	405.58	-2.24	78800	Upward Expansion	72	60
2025-11-21	448.33	402.61	-0.35	353900	Upward Expansion	67	68
2025-11-14	443.46	400.05	-4.68	75600	Upward Expansion	64	77
2025-11-07	447.36	397.68	-3.52	167000	Upward Expansion	69	81
2025-10-31	444.43	394.05	-7.88	218300	Upward Expansion	69	73
2025-10-24	454.18	390.67	0.11	1169200	Deceleration	80	59
2025-10-17	436.63	387.22	-0.14	726200	Deceleration	70	42
2025-10-10	411.29	384.45	-6.78	145200	Deceleration	35	21
2025-10-03	402.52	382.25	-4.09	205400	Deceleration	37	22
2025-09-26	413.24	380.38	-0.57	113000	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-09-19	406.61	377.90	-1.31	91700	Upward Expansion	49	41
2025-09-12	408.50	375.70	-0.18	132700	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-09-05	418.93	373.62	6.57	110700	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-08-29	423.67	371.01	8.64	99000	Upward Expansion	74	69
2025-08-22	427.46	368.28	10.12	252300	Upward Expansion	83	76
2025-08-15	415.14	365.29	5.42	145000	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-08-08	414.19	362.50	9.29	319700	Upward Expansion	83	91
2025-08-01	402.82	359.68	9.10	302300	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-07-25	405.66	357.24	8.26	1097300	Upward Expansion	90	93
2025-07-18	397.13	354.49	10.52	464700	Upward Expansion	86	82
2025-07-11	382.91	351.87	7.53	130800	Upward Expansion	72	56
2025-07-04	374.38	349.82	4.73	85000	Upward Expansion	60	37
2025-06-27	370.59	348.05	2.97	59500	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-06-20	369.64	346.37	7.47	52100	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-06-13	365.85	344.67	8.10	66500	Upward Expansion	52	34
2025-06-06	371.54	342.97	10.23	429500	Upward Expansion	62	40
2025-05-30	368.70	341.11	8.97	147100	Upward Expansion	60	38
2025-05-23	360.17	339.41	8.96	93900	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-05-16	364.91	338.17	8.81	193500	Upward Expansion	59	54
2025-05-09	362.06	336.99	8.85	59500	Upward Expansion	61	68
2025-05-02	365.85	335.85	12.15	141700	Upward Expansion	65	52
2025-04-25	371.54	334.55	17.72	1375100	Upward Expansion	75	51
2025-04-18	372.49	333.09	21.67	429000	Upward Expansion	82	50
2025-04-11	338.37	331.69	14.79	144900	Upward Expansion	45	31
2025-04-04	343.11	331.34	16.19	81800	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-03-28	350.69	331.13	8.50	105500	Upward Expansion	69	60
2025-03-21	353.61	330.63	8.06	74800	Upward Expansion	82	63
2025-03-14	345.30	329.86	7.62	35300	Upward Expansion	68	54
2025-03-07	346.22	329.43	8.61	98200	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-02-28	338.83	328.69	5.80	35100	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-02-21	340.68	328.56	2.13	62100	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-02-14	346.22	328.55	2.93	100500	Rotation Up	86	94
2025-02-07	340.68	328.57	2.34	66100	Rotation Up	51	78
2025-01-31	341.60	329.06	0.60	539700	Rotation Up	51	76
2025-01-24	337.91	329.41	-1.45	95900	Rotation Up	47	66
2025-01-17	331.45	329.85	0.30	26100	Downward Expansion	14	32
2025-01-10	329.60	330.42	-2.39	56500	Downward Expansion	6	19
2025-01-03	329.60	330.96	-4.33	17700	Downward Expansion	-12	16
2024-12-27	323.14	331.40	-7.46	71400	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-12-20	318.52	332.01	-5.44	67000	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2024-12-13	321.29	333.04	-6.81	57800	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-12-06	321.29	333.88	-6.29	55100	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-11-29	320.37	334.70	-4.77	35000	Downward Expansion	-60	64
2024-11-22	318.52	335.48	-5.79	38600	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2024-11-15	314.83	336.45	-8.02	35000	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2024-11-08	315.75	336.73	-10.07	61100	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2024-11-01	317.60	337.07	-6.54	127300	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2024-10-25	323.14	337.38	-4.99	89200	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-10-18	329.60	337.74	-6.21	38800	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2024-10-11	327.75	337.75	-8.62	52500	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-10-04	326.83	337.66	-7.01	486700	Balance	-56	36
2024-09-27	327.75	337.67	-10.01	117500	Balance	-29	22
2024-09-20	330.47	337.67	-4.72	33900	Balance	-26	18
2024-09-13	327.78	337.41	-2.93	79600	Rotation Down	-33	22
2024-09-06	336.76	337.18	-0.03	54100	Rotation Down	-16	17
2024-08-30	335.86	336.65	-6.39	40400	Rotation Down	-21	35
2024-08-23	330.47	336.21	-7.60	66800	Deceleration	-23	31
2024-08-16	332.27	335.77	-6.73	42500	Deceleration	-19	30
2024-08-09	324.19	336.42	-1.42	181800	Deceleration	-32	32
2024-08-02	334.96	336.77	-0.89	60500	Upward Expansion	13	14
2024-07-26	340.35	336.68	-4.19	195600	Upward Expansion	41	28
2024-07-19	346.64	336.36	-8.50	236000	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-07-12	355.62	335.67	-9.10	73500	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-07-05	352.03	334.81	-9.97	77400	Upward Expansion	67	57
2024-06-28	351.13	333.83	-7.81	40300	Upward Expansion	68	46
2024-06-21	348.43	332.99	-6.72	58800	Upward Expansion	63	39
2024-06-14	345.74	332.28	-8.53	63000	Upward Expansion	60	41
2024-06-07	343.05	331.68	-9.48	32800	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-05-31	341.25	331.24	-10.06	62100	Upward Expansion	62	61
2024-05-24	349.33	331.00	-8.95	39600	Upward Expansion	69	77
2024-05-17	346.64	330.54	-10.56	43500	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-05-10	345.74	330.04	-9.96	66000	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-05-03	343.94	329.73	-10.98	92200	Balance	66	61
2024-04-26	347.54	329.52	-9.99	412100	Balance	43	35
2024-04-19	323.29	329.45	-14.91	144800	Balance	-45	17
2024-04-12	325.98	330.16	-20.25	54600	Balance	-28	13
2024-04-05	326.88	330.81	-19.87	76400	Balance	-25	13
2024-03-29	334.07	331.51	-21.63	633200	Balance	-14	11
2024-03-22	329.64	332.06	-24.44	206200	Downward Expansion	-26	13
2024-03-15	325.26	332.16	-22.12	85000	Downward Expansion	-34	16
2024-03-08	327.01	332.12	-24.44	151000	Downward Expansion	-46	23
2024-03-01	327.89	332.48	-25.40	66000	Downward Expansion	-51	39
2024-02-23	322.63	332.67	-25.81	57300	Downward Expansion	-53	54
2024-02-16	320.87	333.17	-25.77	92400	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-02-09	320.87	334.13	-23.30	104400	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2024-02-02	322.63	336.12	-21.86	185300	Downward Expansion	-51	22
2024-01-26	317.37	338.31	-22.77	1404600	Downward Expansion	-39	19
2024-01-19	351.56	340.74	-15.25	325500	Downward Expansion	18	25
2024-01-12	334.90	342.28	-18.74	67300	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2024-01-05	332.27	344.54	-14.44	64600	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2023-12-29	330.52	346.44	-15.44	112100	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2023-12-22	326.13	348.59	-16.11	125300	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2023-12-15	329.64	350.47	-14.88	628500	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2023-12-08	322.63	351.42	-15.11	522100	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2023-12-01	326.13	352.61	-17.14	69100	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2023-11-24	327.01	354.23	-17.52	76700	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2023-11-17	327.89	355.70	-17.30	319200	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2023-11-10	329.64	357.63	-14.29	66200	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2023-11-03	334.02	360.41	-11.42	45500	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2023-10-27	335.78	361.60	-8.16	108400	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2023-10-20	331.39	363.49	-10.05	96500	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2023-10-13	336.65	365.55	-11.58	511800	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2023-10-06	337.53	367.40	-7.58	153800	Downward Expansion	-48	31

Price vs TrendAbove+1.9%

Trend directionFalling-0.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+22.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.8%

Price momentumPositive+2.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.92×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

63 / ±100

+24.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

49 /100

-0.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2411 Directional State ↗ 2411 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up62

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration49

Rotation Down16

Downward Expansion8

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 41%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-0.2%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-08-21	Developing	+1.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	+2.9%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-06-12	New	+2.0%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-05-29	Developing	-2.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-03-06	Established	+5.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-24	New	+12.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-09-26	Extended	+21.3%
Rotation Up	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+2.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-11	2025-01-17	Established	+1.1%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-10-04	New	-1.1%
Rotation Down	2024-08-30	2024-09-13	New	-2.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-09	2024-08-23	New	+1.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-10	2024-08-02	Established	-3.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution74

Stage 4 · Declining54

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 17/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.20
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +2.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.0%
Communication Services regime cohort: 74th percentile43 in cohort

Test 2411 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.67×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.92×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2411 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 470.87rising

Slow Activity JPY 463.73rising

Trend Reference JPY 463.39+1.9% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 383.94+22.9% close margin

Structural low JPY 438.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +1.6%

Annualized volatility +13.9%

From structural high -5.8%

From structural low +19.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+0.8%-0.2% to +6.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.1%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+6.5%+3.0% to +10.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+11.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+17.1%+14.1% to +20.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+14.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+43.8%+42.5% to +45.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+12.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2411 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map