Weekly structural research · NSI · Real Estate

SOBHA Stage Analysis

Sobha Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close INR 1,213.10Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^NSEI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -71−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.3%INR 1,450.02 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1,213.10	1,334.61	-5.40	361455	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-09-25	1,226.60	1,339.41	-7.48	331545	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2026-09-18	1,215.20	1,345.02	-9.43	356203	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2026-09-11	1,216.80	1,354.98	-9.84	388992	Downward Expansion	-84	87
2026-09-04	1,263.80	1,365.25	-8.64	74200	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2026-08-28	1,270.20	1,373.61	-9.35	42616	Rotation Down	-69	74
2026-08-21	1,294.60	1,379.61	-8.09	45877	Rotation Down	-43	54
2026-08-14	1,328.20	1,382.52	-6.33	33841	Balance	-33	34
2026-08-07	1,339.00	1,389.15	-6.59	106424	Balance	-18	18
2026-07-31	1,372.20	1,396.43	-3.78	59090	Rotation Up	5	10
2026-07-24	1,362.30	1,400.37	-2.27	295336	Rotation Up	18	34
2026-07-17	1,462.00	1,404.28	2.19	104334	Rotation Up	32	51
2026-07-10	1,511.30	1,404.39	5.92	377210	Balance	36	49
2026-07-03	1,437.01	1,402.33	0.54	248930	Balance	0	11
2026-06-26	1,402.25	1,405.69	-1.03	0	Balance	-21	12
2026-06-19	1,413.11	1,410.19	-0.03	58836	Balance	-20	11
2026-06-12	1,327.46	1,414.06	-4.55	71267	Balance	-37	20
2026-06-05	1,337.12	1,422.27	-3.02	183977	Balance	-30	13
2026-05-29	1,418.00	1,434.41	1.73	488421	Balance	-4	11
2026-05-22	1,376.90	1,441.09	-1.85	328753	Balance	-9	15
2026-05-15	1,397.30	1,446.35	0.01	556474	Downward Expansion	-16	23
2026-05-08	1,425.40	1,450.64	-0.08	3034410	Downward Expansion	-15	23
2026-05-01	1,433.40	1,451.52	1.49	495115	Downward Expansion	-22	22
2026-04-24	1,417.00	1,452.75	0.94	1565205	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2026-04-17	1,332.20	1,456.93	-6.65	334584	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-04-10	1,299.90	1,465.69	-7.63	835812	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2026-04-03	1,156.80	1,474.66	-12.82	704293	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2026-03-27	1,227.50	1,483.02	-7.95	442053	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2026-03-20	1,267.20	1,489.77	-6.13	703593	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2026-03-13	1,294.40	1,496.82	-4.25	585270	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2026-03-06	1,357.10	1,504.81	-4.88	320663	Balance	-62	45
2026-02-27	1,395.10	1,509.98	-5.03	728972	Balance	-57	24
2026-02-20	1,514.00	1,516.29	1.53	389923	Balance	-25	12
2026-02-13	1,524.90	1,519.62	2.90	435925	Balance	-37	23
2026-02-06	1,514.50	1,525.29	1.63	526033	Balance	-42	29
2026-01-30	1,450.20	1,524.81	-1.11	521600	Balance	-50	27
2026-01-23	1,381.80	1,527.02	-4.72	1412176	Balance	-65	31
2026-01-16	1,527.30	1,529.37	2.87	574550	Balance	-31	13
2026-01-09	1,557.20	1,527.99	5.06	2646914	Balance	-38	20
2026-01-02	1,490.60	1,528.07	-1.83	565879	Balance	-54	46
2025-12-26	1,479.60	1,534.26	-1.73	486444	Balance	-55	43
2025-12-19	1,465.10	1,532.61	-2.74	673731	Balance	-57	35
2025-12-12	1,449.60	1,529.50	-4.35	1347914	Balance	-14	17
2025-12-05	1,537.80	1,526.84	0.66	268991	Upward Expansion	26	14
2025-11-28	1,537.30	1,516.31	0.29	388446	Upward Expansion	44	25
2025-11-21	1,529.10	1,508.81	-0.07	507399	Upward Expansion	50	47
2025-11-14	1,573.80	1,499.58	3.16	652263	Upward Expansion	55	56
2025-11-07	1,701.20	1,486.90	13.18	1196611	Deceleration	74	65
2025-10-31	1,618.60	1,467.69	6.76	1005469	Deceleration	60	29
2025-10-24	1,534.70	1,453.36	0.85	1068426	Deceleration	23	12
2025-10-17	1,525.80	1,442.95	0.45	2186227	Deceleration	21	11
2025-10-10	1,452.00	1,434.39	-3.14	798746	Deceleration	19	11
2025-10-03	1,470.30	1,426.03	-0.73	568205	Deceleration	29	22
2025-09-26	1,542.20	1,418.33	4.72	515493	Deceleration	37	24
2025-09-19	1,595.20	1,406.87	5.02	743983	Deceleration	46	21
2025-09-12	1,569.00	1,393.33	3.71	706884	Deceleration	27	19
2025-09-05	1,407.60	1,379.65	-5.78	1144319	Deceleration	1	14
2025-08-29	1,430.00	1,375.55	-3.41	405516	Deceleration	24	19
2025-08-22	1,478.60	1,371.99	-2.16	790932	Upward Expansion	37	20
2025-08-15	1,534.10	1,360.51	2.22	367291	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-08-08	1,512.10	1,352.57	1.62	748008	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-08-01	1,584.50	1,347.77	5.35	1034370	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-07-25	1,613.80	1,346.37	5.94	1027142	Upward Expansion	65	53
2025-07-18	1,695.20	1,345.88	10.45	4136558	Upward Expansion	80	52
2025-07-11	1,499.90	1,340.66	-3.20	1575184	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-07-04	1,516.71	1,343.36	-3.90	1556991	Rotation Up	61	45
2025-06-27	1,452.23	1,347.84	-9.28	1395706	Rotation Up	36	57
2025-06-20	1,485.77	1,354.95	-5.95	1689959	Rotation Up	38	66
2025-06-13	1,559.62	1,359.63	-0.56	1489566	Rotation Up	43	70
2025-06-06	1,676.29	1,358.68	4.81	5984870	Rotation Up	54	72
2025-05-30	1,430.18	1,355.75	-10.27	2257557	Balance	33	43
2025-05-23	1,371.69	1,361.32	-14.96	885081	Balance	7	22
2025-05-16	1,369.80	1,367.14	-16.37	1059902	Downward Expansion	4	15
2025-05-09	1,221.89	1,379.36	-22.89	604056	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-05-02	1,312.51	1,395.49	-18.93	1030897	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2025-04-25	1,252.23	1,411.32	-22.30	948186	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2025-04-18	1,193.24	1,435.03	-25.93	922456	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-04-11	1,124.93	1,461.38	-27.47	1020026	Downward Expansion	-69	45
2025-04-04	1,188.65	1,482.90	-24.08	622865	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2025-03-28	1,222.34	1,500.17	-24.33	1106883	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2025-03-21	1,269.14	1,515.64	-21.14	1107499	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2025-03-14	1,201.18	1,529.49	-22.46	491604	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-03-07	1,239.40	1,546.62	-20.60	1307715	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-02-28	1,198.23	1,562.14	-22.01	1039131	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2025-02-21	1,189.00	1,579.81	-25.25	1575156	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2025-02-14	1,158.66	1,600.04	-27.84	2562577	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2025-02-07	1,284.61	1,622.76	-22.46	2129460	Downward Expansion	-65	81
2025-01-31	1,323.19	1,644.77	-20.18	7568790	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2025-01-24	1,134.26	1,667.80	-30.50	1432714	Downward Expansion	-91	94
2025-01-17	1,295.89	1,694.98	-21.30	867168	Downward Expansion	-84	81
2025-01-10	1,368.10	1,720.17	-17.97	1433588	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2025-01-03	1,542.60	1,745.08	-9.79	616686	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-12-27	1,599.09	1,762.94	-5.58	453680	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2024-12-20	1,538.51	1,772.74	-7.74	1655012	Downward Expansion	-62	34
2024-12-13	1,580.73	1,786.11	-9.30	923913	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2024-12-06	1,651.09	1,795.28	-4.49	602364	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-11-29	1,665.76	1,796.61	-0.97	861623	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-11-22	1,626.09	1,802.73	-1.82	1598105	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2024-11-15	1,531.03	1,806.73	-5.49	474662	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2024-11-08	1,588.51	1,808.12	-3.88	862934	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2024-11-01	1,597.30	1,808.36	-3.33	1249113	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2024-10-25	1,546.30	1,806.76	-5.24	764031	Balance	-73	59
2024-10-18	1,736.42	1,803.34	4.33	776460	Balance	-22	11
2024-10-11	1,705.73	1,794.51	2.99	1244113	Balance	7	14
2024-10-04	1,787.32	1,778.96	8.64	709573	Balance	22	25
2024-09-27	1,963.67	1,769.74	15.24	1048674	Balance	48	33
2024-09-20	1,983.73	1,757.36	19.55	1848215	Rotation Down	44	23
2024-09-13	1,770.40	1,739.74	9.97	1237067	Rotation Down	-18	21
2024-09-06	1,706.78	1,728.65	9.38	794296	Rotation Down	-22	41
2024-08-30	1,686.42	1,718.86	7.56	942577	Deceleration	-22	39
2024-08-23	1,684.62	1,709.62	10.45	495322	Deceleration	-3	24
2024-08-16	1,715.11	1,699.36	15.09	765692	Deceleration	1	18
2024-08-09	1,705.03	1,690.42	16.71	1715131	Deceleration	2	16
2024-08-02	1,728.29	1,678.38	18.17	1279359	Deceleration	17	17
2024-07-26	1,796.00	1,662.92	23.81	2403657	Deceleration	33	18
2024-07-19	1,840.29	1,635.80	30.17	542724	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-07-12	1,944.87	1,608.58	39.92	373147	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-07-05	2,013.97	1,577.63	48.54	1204619	Upward Expansion	60	45
2024-06-28	1,949.65	1,544.77	48.39	997428	Upward Expansion	63	52
2024-06-21	2,051.53	1,511.31	62.59	809207	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-06-14	2,115.39	1,472.69	71.54	1396683	Upward Expansion	74	65
2024-06-07	2,078.54	1,431.24	73.70	1671344	Upward Expansion	76	57
2024-05-31	1,893.00	1,389.30	67.33	1128103	Upward Expansion	66	53
2024-05-24	1,939.68	1,351.69	71.80	1454386	Upward Expansion	75	63
2024-05-17	1,855.89	1,310.49	71.82	1445865	Upward Expansion	73	68
2024-05-10	1,690.88	1,273.21	63.00	1382046	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-05-03	1,849.36	1,242.17	78.58	1103784	Upward Expansion	81	79
2024-04-26	1,746.28	1,204.21	73.15	2032594	Upward Expansion	79	74
2024-04-19	1,572.65	1,169.44	61.49	584234	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-04-12	1,595.57	1,138.57	64.41	1670611	Deceleration	69	47
2024-04-05	1,549.44	1,107.76	63.06	1512819	Deceleration	65	37
2024-03-29	1,443.57	1,078.76	56.28	1123751	Upward Expansion	46	29
2024-03-22	1,471.76	1,050.91	64.05	2924096	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-03-15	1,239.00	1,021.40	41.33	1682631	Upward Expansion	51	41
2024-03-08	1,510.92	999.36	70.78	940025	Upward Expansion	67	58
2024-03-01	1,592.28	967.85	84.40	2624760	Upward Expansion	80	65
2024-02-23	1,454.98	934.54	72.83	1419133	Upward Expansion	70	62
2024-02-16	1,437.74	906.88	75.01	2080965	Upward Expansion	71	66
2024-02-09	1,413.08	877.45	77.04	1578666	Upward Expansion	70	68
2024-02-02	1,409.34	848.71	79.08	1288705	Upward Expansion	71	81
2024-01-26	1,376.61	820.78	82.15	1740934	Upward Expansion	73	83
2024-01-19	1,447.15	792.65	92.44	4792418	Upward Expansion	90	84
2024-01-12	1,343.62	761.89	79.73	4965422	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-01-05	1,264.66	735.36	73.39	23408229	Upward Expansion	93	75
2023-12-29	982.17	710.86	36.55	1198786	Upward Expansion	67	68
2023-12-22	1,023.87	696.95	46.05	2237181	Upward Expansion	75	85
2023-12-15	1,016.20	679.57	45.79	4497463	Upward Expansion	80	91
2023-12-08	1,028.21	662.82	52.29	5072188	Upward Expansion	91	95
2023-12-01	945.90	644.93	46.34	2642991	Upward Expansion	84	91
2023-11-24	892.84	628.79	42.54	1871796	Upward Expansion	82	86
2023-11-17	872.02	614.19	40.67	3650546	Upward Expansion	85	72
2023-11-10	820.25	600.08	35.28	6960484	Upward Expansion	82	63
2023-11-03	764.80	587.41	28.14	2319446	Upward Expansion	75	61
2023-10-27	703.52	576.80	19.40	1608105	Upward Expansion	64	57
2023-10-20	737.65	567.58	22.19	2650118	Upward Expansion	70	67
2023-10-13	759.77	557.28	24.68	8370096	Upward Expansion	83	75

Price vs TrendBelow-9.1%

Trend directionFalling-4.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.9%

Price momentumPositive+4.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-71 / ±100

+5.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

78 /100

-2.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SOBHA Directional State ↗ SOBHA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration39

Rotation Down80

Downward Expansion96

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 32%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	-4.0%
Rotation Down	2026-08-21	2026-08-28	New	-1.9%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	-0.8%
Rotation Up	2026-07-17	2026-07-31	New	-6.1%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-07-10	Developing	+9.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-05-15	Developing	+7.9%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-03-06	Established	-6.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	-2.3%
Deceleration	2025-08-29	2025-11-07	Developing	+19.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-08-22	Developing	-1.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	-9.5%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	+4.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2025-05-16	Extended	-14.2%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-10-25	Developing	-21.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing5

Stage 3 · Distribution35

Stage 4 · Declining95

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NSEI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.40
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +6.1%
Real Estate regime cohort: 75th percentile20 in cohort

Test SOBHA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SOBHA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity INR 1,220.99falling

Slow Activity INR 1,326.00falling

Trend Reference INR 1,334.61-9.1% close margin

Current Fair Value INR 1,450.02-16.3% close margin

Structural low INR 1,153.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +28.2%

From structural high -30.0%

From structural low +7.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^NSEI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	+2.2%-29.1% to +31.1%	+60.9%	+39.1%	+2.2%	+82.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+0.9%-25.3% to +24.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.9%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-6.8%-17.8% to +23.3%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-7.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+1.3%-40.2% to +238.0%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-4.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SOBHA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map