Weekly structural research · NYSEARCA · Market

IPAY Stage Analysis

AMPLIFY DIGITAL PAYMENTS ETF

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 46.46Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 3−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -8.2%USD 50.60 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	46.46	47.02	-12.50	474319	Deceleration	3	21
2026-09-25	47.95	46.99	-10.56	432758	Deceleration	26	22
2026-09-18	47.96	46.90	-10.01	247009	Upward Expansion	37	23
2026-09-11	49.43	46.83	-8.01	487656	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-09-04	51.41	46.66	-5.69	162858	Upward Expansion	65	70
2026-08-28	51.79	46.52	-5.54	141270	Upward Expansion	66	75
2026-08-21	52.26	46.41	-4.90	297137	Upward Expansion	75	79
2026-08-14	52.11	46.39	-7.09	295469	Upward Expansion	79	77
2026-08-07	50.50	46.35	-10.39	309231	Rotation Up	73	74
2026-07-31	49.98	46.44	-8.78	337583	Rotation Up	45	64
2026-07-24	48.01	46.50	-11.98	753767	Rotation Up	34	58
2026-07-17	49.28	46.66	-10.89	66858	Balance	44	55
2026-07-10	48.28	46.77	-14.70	503612	Balance	24	24
2026-07-03	48.40	46.92	-14.00	83155	Balance	5	6
2026-06-26	45.76	47.03	-17.61	276922	Downward Expansion	-46	30
2026-06-19	44.40	47.23	-22.62	172016	Downward Expansion	-42	35
2026-06-12	43.78	47.41	-23.67	140244	Balance	-48	39
2026-06-05	43.17	47.66	-24.97	214602	Balance	-53	34
2026-05-29	46.35	47.96	-22.20	64151	Balance	-31	19
2026-05-22	45.24	48.21	-23.62	56568	Balance	-22	13
2026-05-15	44.76	48.62	-24.42	211353	Balance	-23	18
2026-05-08	46.60	48.99	-21.83	343484	Downward Expansion	-19	27
2026-05-01	47.62	49.29	-18.91	45389	Downward Expansion	-22	26
2026-04-24	46.94	49.63	-19.85	114375	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2026-04-17	48.69	49.96	-17.01	106251	Downward Expansion	-37	34
2026-04-10	43.41	50.30	-23.17	157197	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-04-03	42.54	50.79	-22.56	66070	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2026-03-27	41.41	51.34	-22.56	54181	Downward Expansion	-81	70
2026-03-20	42.66	51.95	-22.55	99946	Downward Expansion	-80	70
2026-03-13	43.37	52.51	-23.22	54551	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2026-03-06	45.64	53.00	-20.93	337007	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2026-02-27	45.19	53.36	-23.75	179587	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2026-02-20	45.95	53.72	-23.39	130546	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2026-02-13	44.37	54.20	-25.69	171746	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2026-02-06	47.12	54.71	-22.71	421189	Downward Expansion	-86	85
2026-01-30	48.60	55.08	-21.01	332025	Downward Expansion	-81	64
2026-01-23	51.44	55.47	-16.64	108718	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2026-01-16	50.93	55.71	-18.18	282417	Downward Expansion	-64	38
2026-01-09	53.37	55.89	-15.03	172483	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-01-02	51.57	55.96	-16.95	66088	Downward Expansion	-48	33
2025-12-26	53.02	56.17	-15.94	76821	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-12-19	52.49	56.27	-16.00	135732	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-12-12	52.76	56.36	-15.87	85793	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-12-05	51.66	56.50	-18.49	164082	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2025-11-28	51.81	56.59	-18.41	35389	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2025-11-21	49.89	56.63	-18.98	96428	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2025-11-14	51.32	56.72	-18.69	56884	Rotation Down	-82	81
2025-11-07	52.13	56.68	-17.68	86248	Rotation Down	-54	64
2025-10-31	53.86	56.62	-16.65	75822	Balance	-38	47
2025-10-24	57.52	56.40	-10.61	45848	Balance	6	18
2025-10-17	55.68	56.24	-11.91	53612	Balance	-5	20
2025-10-10	55.77	56.19	-10.42	100073	Balance	-3	13
2025-10-03	57.66	56.09	-9.75	64565	Balance	19	13
2025-09-26	56.86	55.98	-10.08	52638	Upward Expansion	28	14
2025-09-19	58.91	56.00	-7.22	54557	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-09-12	58.17	55.96	-7.30	57923	Upward Expansion	52	40
2025-09-05	58.91	56.04	-4.70	46715	Upward Expansion	52	43
2025-08-29	59.91	56.09	-2.73	38168	Deceleration	63	36
2025-08-22	59.50	56.12	-3.40	29687	Deceleration	49	26
2025-08-15	58.02	56.12	-5.49	47339	Deceleration	36	20
2025-08-08	56.32	56.15	-7.34	51940	Rotation Up	40	25
2025-08-01	56.09	56.14	-5.41	92923	Rotation Up	55	38
2025-07-25	60.28	56.23	-0.73	121335	Rotation Up	44	69
2025-07-18	59.60	56.17	-0.24	48901	Rotation Up	40	64
2025-07-11	58.41	56.13	-1.48	97220	Rotation Up	34	57
2025-07-04	60.16	56.18	1.36	54902	Rotation Up	39	51
2025-06-27	58.84	56.20	1.03	133975	Balance	32	40
2025-06-20	56.20	56.27	0.06	54866	Balance	-2	18
2025-06-13	55.53	56.40	-1.13	67751	Balance	-2	17
2025-06-06	57.77	56.47	2.66	75381	Balance	9	24
2025-05-30	56.03	56.43	1.35	43746	Balance	-12	22
2025-05-23	55.23	56.32	1.77	31198	Balance	-20	23
2025-05-16	56.92	56.23	2.32	93659	Downward Expansion	-16	20
2025-05-09	54.39	56.14	3.00	37071	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-02	53.08	56.08	0.14	87218	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-04-25	52.43	56.03	1.78	182463	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2025-04-18	50.29	56.00	2.09	86590	Rotation Down	-66	76
2025-04-11	50.17	56.04	0.39	111852	Rotation Down	-43	68
2025-04-04	47.25	56.05	-0.15	118954	Rotation Down	-64	78
2025-03-28	52.83	56.08	1.42	82721	Rotation Down	-36	63
2025-03-21	54.07	56.01	2.17	77394	Rotation Down	-28	50
2025-03-14	52.73	55.86	0.08	115692	Upward Expansion	-38	40
2025-03-07	54.61	55.74	1.19	135911	Upward Expansion	-7	16
2025-02-28	57.43	55.46	3.05	140806	Upward Expansion	36	21
2025-02-21	57.52	55.07	2.21	67620	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-02-14	60.80	54.74	6.33	76512	Upward Expansion	68	56
2025-02-07	60.25	54.31	7.01	71067	Upward Expansion	65	51
2025-01-31	60.71	53.88	7.80	108947	Deceleration	69	45
2025-01-24	59.68	53.42	5.06	73842	Deceleration	53	37
2025-01-17	58.76	52.96	5.32	107247	Deceleration	42	31
2025-01-10	56.17	52.54	3.75	108329	Upward Expansion	42	33
2025-01-03	58.81	52.20	6.55	185074	Upward Expansion	50	51
2024-12-27	58.43	51.82	5.39	77168	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-12-20	58.34	51.44	5.94	87728	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-12-13	59.87	51.08	6.74	64088	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-12-06	60.99	50.71	8.18	82242	Upward Expansion	80	93
2024-11-29	60.68	50.29	8.70	54205	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-11-22	60.09	49.86	9.06	216648	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-11-15	57.69	49.47	6.67	231827	Upward Expansion	87	91
2024-11-08	56.76	49.12	2.95	125251	Upward Expansion	88	86
2024-11-01	52.60	48.86	0.09	44867	Upward Expansion	63	70
2024-10-25	52.63	48.78	-1.16	36276	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-10-18	54.11	48.75	0.76	67346	Upward Expansion	81	79
2024-10-11	52.64	48.64	-1.04	53734	Upward Expansion	72	71
2024-10-04	51.46	48.55	-2.09	84444	Rotation Up	66	65
2024-09-27	51.55	48.51	-1.65	85683	Rotation Up	42	51
2024-09-20	51.66	48.43	-0.91	79108	Rotation Up	48	60
2024-09-13	50.24	48.30	-2.26	340734	Rotation Up	28	51
2024-09-06	48.15	48.19	-2.66	51157	Rotation Up	17	37
2024-08-30	50.89	48.13	-1.43	80514	Balance	36	47
2024-08-23	49.65	47.96	-3.64	96624	Balance	25	17
2024-08-16	48.95	47.81	-3.75	89016	Balance	-13	8
2024-08-09	46.34	47.66	-5.35	166621	Balance	-50	25
2024-08-02	45.70	47.61	-6.79	82882	Balance	-22	13
2024-07-26	47.46	47.57	-5.49	82015	Balance	-3	10
2024-07-19	48.06	47.51	-5.29	103249	Rotation Down	-3	6
2024-07-12	47.37	47.43	-8.69	131429	Rotation Down	-27	24
2024-07-05	46.81	47.33	-9.18	78712	Rotation Down	-33	47
2024-06-28	46.07	47.20	-9.13	132732	Rotation Down	-29	49
2024-06-21	46.12	47.09	-9.29	95833	Deceleration	-29	47
2024-06-14	45.84	46.91	-9.46	179701	Deceleration	-14	27
2024-06-07	47.50	46.72	-4.88	129362	Deceleration	6	11
2024-05-31	47.10	46.41	-4.66	80768	Deceleration	3	7
2024-05-24	47.56	46.10	-4.27	88235	Deceleration	14	11
2024-05-17	48.69	45.67	-2.13	113207	Deceleration	30	17
2024-05-10	48.46	45.27	-1.13	53909	Deceleration	28	23
2024-05-03	47.70	44.91	-0.99	74211	Deceleration	31	26
2024-04-26	48.37	44.59	0.83	86122	Deceleration	39	25
2024-04-19	47.25	44.26	0.97	115532	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-04-12	48.96	43.97	1.28	67250	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-04-05	50.07	43.70	1.93	280318	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-03-29	51.84	43.38	4.54	70167	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-03-22	50.77	43.05	2.69	99693	Upward Expansion	80	87
2024-03-15	49.77	42.70	2.84	149613	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-03-08	50.29	42.37	3.76	203725	Upward Expansion	88	92
2024-03-01	49.16	42.10	1.07	236077	Upward Expansion	87	91
2024-02-23	47.75	41.88	-1.09	121290	Upward Expansion	79	84
2024-02-16	47.18	41.75	-0.88	204595	Upward Expansion	79	83
2024-02-09	46.29	41.65	-3.30	189410	Upward Expansion	73	66
2024-02-02	45.63	41.57	-3.65	167001	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-01-26	45.37	41.44	-3.17	166220	Upward Expansion	69	57
2024-01-19	44.36	41.33	-4.67	270028	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-01-12	44.83	41.21	-2.81	253386	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-01-05	44.39	41.11	-2.22	185940	Rotation Up	67	84
2023-12-29	45.70	41.01	-1.10	277307	Rotation Up	53	82
2023-12-22	45.58	40.85	-1.14	370932	Rotation Up	51	79
2023-12-15	44.39	40.67	-2.92	228514	Rotation Up	47	69
2023-12-08	43.07	40.56	-3.66	263931	Rotation Up	42	48
2023-12-01	42.71	40.47	-4.37	277786	Downward Expansion	29	37
2023-11-24	40.69	40.43	-8.30	145353	Downward Expansion	-15	23
2023-11-17	40.14	40.45	-8.84	224168	Downward Expansion	-38	32
2023-11-10	38.25	40.49	-11.35	167801	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2023-11-03	37.70	40.60	-11.77	220683	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2023-10-27	34.68	40.68	-14.35	185260	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2023-10-20	36.82	40.89	-11.70	151210	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2023-10-13	37.44	40.98	-12.66	108802	Downward Expansion	-80	87

Price vs TrendBelow-1.2%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-8.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.5%

Price momentumPositive+9.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.41×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

3 / ±100

-62.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

21 /100

-49.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

IPAY Directional State ↗ IPAY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion50

Deceleration91

Rotation Down48

Downward Expansion30

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-3.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.0%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-07	New	+5.2%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	+1.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-06-26	New	+3.1%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-06-12	Developing	-2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-05-08	Established	-6.6%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-11-14	New	-1.6%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-31	Developing	-6.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-09-26	New	-3.5%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	+3.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	-6.4%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	+6.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+8.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing37

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining63

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 10/100
Current Relative Strength: -12.50
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +9.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.4%
Sector regime cohort: 4th percentile917 in cohort

Test IPAY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.72×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.41×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore IPAY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 47.88falling

Slow Activity USD 48.24rising

Trend Reference USD 47.02-1.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 50.60-8.2% close margin

Structural low USD 42.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.0%

Annualized volatility +26.3%

From structural high -20.6%

From structural low +12.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	+0.3%-7.7% to +5.2%	+55.6%	+55.6%	-1.9%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-1.9%-14.4% to +6.1%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-7.0%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+3.7%-23.5% to +22.0%	+80.0%	+80.0%	-5.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+8.4%-10.2% to +26.5%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-6.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

IPAY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map