Weekly structural research · SET · Utilities

SKE Stage Analysis

Sakol Energy Public Company Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close THB 0.19Tenure NewBenchmark ^SET.BK

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 54/100directional strength

Maturity 6/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -33.6%THB 0.2862 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.19	0.1853	-1.43	3779600	Upward Expansion	55	54
2026-09-25	0.21	0.184	5.56	12837000	Upward Expansion	56	62
2026-09-18	0.24	0.182	21.50	48893100	Balance	78	65
2026-09-11	0.19	0.1793	-5.42	2297000	Balance	46	26
2026-09-04	0.19	0.178	-5.75	9022100	Balance	40	19
2026-08-28	0.20	0.176	-1.15	4602200	Balance	45	18
2026-08-21	0.17	0.1743	-18.36	689400	Balance	-18	25
2026-08-14	0.17	0.1733	-18.62	305200	Balance	2	12
2026-08-07	0.18	0.1723	-15.04	1146900	Balance	14	12
2026-07-31	0.18	0.1713	-16.39	186800	Balance	17	10
2026-07-24	0.17	0.1703	-22.79	203500	Balance	9	7
2026-07-17	0.18	0.1693	-19.01	43200	Balance	36	26
2026-07-10	0.19	0.1683	-14.37	217500	Balance	49	37
2026-07-03	0.18	0.168	-18.95	434400	Balance	42	26
2026-06-26	0.20	0.168	-6.91	677800	Balance	54	27
2026-06-19	0.18	0.1673	-18.44	119000	Balance	27	13
2026-06-12	0.18	0.167	-20.26	1190700	Balance	28	14
2026-06-05	0.18	0.167	-20.66	115500	Balance	30	16
2026-05-29	0.17	0.1677	-25.19	1899200	Balance	32	16
2026-05-22	0.18	0.1687	-20.23	3463300	Balance	37	21
2026-05-15	0.18	0.1693	-19.88	4525000	Rotation Up	39	21
2026-05-08	0.20	0.17	-10.59	3691200	Rotation Up	32	22
2026-05-01	0.19	0.1703	-15.12	8314700	Rotation Up	28	22
2026-04-24	0.17	0.1717	-22.57	2801700	Rotation Up	27	34
2026-04-17	0.19	0.1737	-15.69	1400300	Rotation Up	21	44
2026-04-10	0.20	0.175	-13.10	7121800	Rotation Up	27	43
2026-04-03	0.20	0.176	-10.34	24621100	Rotation Up	29	30
2026-03-27	0.21	0.1767	-5.88	35779000	Rotation Up	15	17
2026-03-20	0.15	0.1773	-32.32	4579000	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-03-13	0.14	0.1797	-36.15	2951100	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2026-03-06	0.15	0.1823	-32.02	2140200	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2026-02-27	0.15	0.1847	-37.66	1217100	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2026-02-20	0.16	0.1873	-31.96	1870800	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2026-02-13	0.15	0.1897	-34.68	6124300	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2026-02-06	0.13	0.1917	-40.79	1420600	Downward Expansion	-76	61
2026-01-30	0.15	0.1937	-30.96	989100	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2026-01-23	0.14	0.1957	-35.71	982300	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2026-01-16	0.14	0.1977	-34.52	756300	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2026-01-09	0.15	0.1997	-29.38	1160200	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2026-01-02	0.15	0.202	-30.37	605800	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2025-12-26	0.14	0.2043	-35.64	2629500	Downward Expansion	-82	78
2025-12-19	0.15	0.2073	-31.39	5363300	Downward Expansion	-81	71
2025-12-12	0.18	0.2097	-18.62	397900	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2025-12-05	0.18	0.2107	-20.45	661700	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2025-11-28	0.18	0.2117	-19.93	525800	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2025-11-21	0.17	0.2127	-24.73	714800	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2025-11-14	0.18	0.214	-21.83	397400	Rotation Down	-73	65
2025-11-07	0.20	0.2143	-16.16	1513800	Rotation Down	-29	43
2025-10-31	0.20	0.214	-17.15	1661300	Rotation Down	-19	31
2025-10-24	0.20	0.214	-18.22	277400	Upward Expansion	-18	22
2025-10-17	0.20	0.214	-16.45	2640000	Upward Expansion	13	12
2025-10-10	0.21	0.2133	-13.87	1846000	Upward Expansion	26	13
2025-10-03	0.23	0.212	-6.98	2420300	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-09-26	0.23	0.2107	-6.70	3916200	Upward Expansion	51	28
2025-09-19	0.23	0.21	-8.59	6630300	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-09-12	0.23	0.2103	-9.46	6184200	Balance	51	27
2025-09-05	0.22	0.2107	-12.13	4520800	Balance	45	23
2025-08-29	0.23	0.2113	-6.75	16117300	Balance	53	33
2025-08-22	0.22	0.2127	-12.72	2276000	Balance	19	29
2025-08-15	0.22	0.2147	-13.94	1043500	Balance	19	25
2025-08-08	0.22	0.2163	-14.68	596200	Balance	18	19
2025-08-01	0.23	0.2183	-8.77	1620500	Balance	23	17
2025-07-25	0.23	0.2203	-9.59	6833900	Balance	-5	3
2025-07-18	0.21	0.2223	-17.50	1451400	Balance	-37	24
2025-07-11	0.19	0.225	-20.55	353600	Balance	-50	33
2025-07-04	0.21	0.2287	-13.06	1869000	Balance	-33	20
2025-06-27	0.20	0.2317	-14.82	507900	Balance	-39	22
2025-06-20	0.20	0.2347	-14.10	2034000	Balance	-24	12
2025-06-13	0.22	0.238	-10.48	1702400	Balance	-11	13
2025-06-06	0.22	0.2417	-12.12	3721900	Balance	-13	13
2025-05-30	0.23	0.245	-9.75	8262700	Downward Expansion	-9	12
2025-05-23	0.22	0.2493	-16.31	5868800	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2025-05-16	0.21	0.2537	-22.27	1150800	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-05-09	0.21	0.2587	-24.12	1284000	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-05-02	0.21	0.264	-24.39	1217400	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-04-25	0.21	0.2697	-22.77	1476900	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2025-04-18	0.19	0.276	-30.45	1088400	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2025-04-11	0.19	0.2827	-30.18	3099000	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2025-04-04	0.20	0.2887	-27.38	844000	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-03-28	0.20	0.294	-31.44	1856600	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-03-21	0.18	0.2997	-39.78	1876000	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2025-03-14	0.17	0.306	-43.41	2261900	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-03-07	0.19	0.312	-39.29	4686400	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2025-02-28	0.21	0.318	-34.02	2138100	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2025-02-21	0.24	0.324	-28.01	1463900	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2025-02-14	0.24	0.3287	-30.27	943200	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2025-02-07	0.24	0.3337	-31.75	2618000	Downward Expansion	-85	78
2025-01-31	0.27	0.3387	-25.93	1172500	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2025-01-24	0.28	0.3407	-26.12	1041300	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2025-01-17	0.27	0.342	-28.72	970300	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2025-01-10	0.28	0.343	-28.27	2029600	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2025-01-03	0.29	0.3453	-27.23	760800	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2024-12-27	0.29	0.3477	-28.70	2062200	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2024-12-20	0.29	0.351	-27.34	1765100	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2024-12-13	0.30	0.3557	-28.83	1462800	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2024-12-06	0.30	0.36	-30.31	1468000	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2024-11-29	0.29	0.3653	-32.01	2552300	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2024-11-22	0.30	0.3707	-31.12	4142400	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2024-11-15	0.33	0.3753	-24.66	2289600	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-11-08	0.32	0.3803	-28.54	4093100	Balance	-71	58
2024-11-01	0.36	0.3863	-20.29	837600	Balance	-46	28
2024-10-25	0.35	0.3907	-22.98	1508800	Balance	-43	25
2024-10-18	0.36	0.3957	-22.69	4093700	Balance	-35	14
2024-10-11	0.37	0.4003	-20.08	28088600	Balance	-16	12
2024-10-04	0.38	0.4053	-16.96	4155800	Balance	-13	12
2024-09-27	0.40	0.4097	-13.42	14493000	Balance	-5	7
2024-09-20	0.39	0.4117	-16.14	10556100	Balance	-18	10
2024-09-13	0.37	0.415	-19.36	5865700	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-09-06	0.36	0.4203	-22.17	1983600	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-08-30	0.37	0.4243	-16.52	4013300	Downward Expansion	-45	27
2024-08-23	0.37	0.4277	-16.68	2356400	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2024-08-16	0.35	0.431	-18.40	1410300	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2024-08-09	0.37	0.4353	-13.68	6117800	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2024-08-02	0.39	0.4387	-10.40	685300	Downward Expansion	-34	27
2024-07-26	0.38	0.4417	-12.69	2624100	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-07-19	0.39	0.444	-11.40	9533300	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2024-07-12	0.39	0.446	-12.61	16777100	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-07-05	0.33	0.4477	-25.11	9094000	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-06-28	0.32	0.4517	-27.15	7626000	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2024-06-21	0.30	0.456	-32.34	684600	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2024-06-14	0.35	0.4617	-21.68	2579000	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2024-06-07	0.36	0.466	-21.51	1630600	Downward Expansion	-87	87
2024-05-31	0.39	0.4707	-16.18	2423500	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2024-05-24	0.43	0.4743	-9.21	254800	Balance	-64	61
2024-05-17	0.43	0.476	-10.68	1696700	Balance	-36	48
2024-05-10	0.46	0.4787	-3.94	864300	Balance	-12	24
2024-05-03	0.45	0.4803	-6.18	2111000	Balance	-15	21
2024-04-26	0.44	0.4823	-7.94	4361200	Balance	-19	14
2024-04-19	0.48	0.4857	2.03	522800	Balance	0	3
2024-04-12	0.50	0.488	1.04	1683700	Balance	9	6
2024-04-05	0.49	0.4897	0.14	2294100	Balance	16	12
2024-03-29	0.50	0.492	1.63	3030500	Balance	18	19
2024-03-22	0.50	0.494	1.12	5080000	Balance	9	9
2024-03-15	0.52	0.4953	4.45	4020700	Balance	17	13
2024-03-08	0.51	0.495	2.19	13211300	Balance	-3	10
2024-03-01	0.46	0.4953	-6.83	12393300	Balance	-21	14
2024-02-23	0.49	0.499	-3.35	12173900	Balance	-10	14
2024-02-16	0.53	0.501	4.97	124324800	Balance	7	12
2024-02-09	0.48	0.5007	-5.32	829900	Balance	-29	16
2024-02-02	0.47	0.5017	-7.45	4785800	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2024-01-26	0.47	0.503	-6.83	1061900	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2024-01-19	0.48	0.5043	-6.31	1355700	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-01-12	0.47	0.5067	-10.76	3741800	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-01-05	0.48	0.5107	-10.28	4837900	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2023-12-29	0.45	0.513	-15.55	2932600	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2023-12-22	0.45	0.5163	-15.35	3128200	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2023-12-15	0.44	0.5203	-16.74	1458600	Downward Expansion	-74	80
2023-12-08	0.45	0.5237	-14.65	802700	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2023-12-01	0.45	0.529	-15.06	3236300	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2023-11-24	0.47	0.5343	-12.83	1087500	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2023-11-17	0.48	0.5397	-12.60	2540900	Downward Expansion	-66	58
2023-11-10	0.50	0.5457	-7.78	1420100	Downward Expansion	-57	53
2023-11-03	0.50	0.5517	-10.21	999100	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2023-10-27	0.48	0.5573	-12.47	2044800	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2023-10-20	0.51	0.5637	-8.33	1588500	Balance	-57	48
2023-10-13	0.51	0.569	-12.09	1327300	Balance	-58	41

Price vs TrendAbove+2.5%

Trend directionRising+8.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-33.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.5%

Price momentumNegative-5.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.06×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

+15.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

54 /100

+34.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SKE Directional State ↗ SKE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up63

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration46

Rotation Down11

Downward Expansion11

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 38%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 5%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 50%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-9.5%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-09-18	Established	+33.3%
Rotation Up	2026-03-27	2026-05-15	Developing	-14.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-03-20	Established	-11.8%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-10.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	-13.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-09-12	Established	+4.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-05-30	Extended	-30.3%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-11-08	Developing	-17.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-31	2024-09-13	Established	-5.1%
Balance	2024-02-09	2024-05-24	Established	-10.4%
Downward Expansion	2023-10-27	2024-02-02	Established	-2.1%
Balance	2023-09-15	2023-10-20	Developing	-7.3%
Downward Expansion	2023-03-10	2023-09-08	Extended	-17.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing69

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining28

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SET.BK

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 55/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.43
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -5.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.1%
Utilities regime cohort: 75th percentile12 in cohort

Test SKE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.82×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.06×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SKE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity THB 0.2053rising

Slow Activity THB 0.1886rising

Trend Reference THB 0.1853+2.5% close margin

Current Fair Value THB 0.2862-33.6% close margin

Structural low THB 0.16shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +14.2%

Annualized volatility +62.7%

From structural high -24.0%

From structural low +46.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SET.BK	Regime survived	Read
Near term	2	-11.5%-13.0% to -10.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-10.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	-34.8%-34.8% to -34.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-31.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	-34.8%-34.8% to -34.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-45.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+4.3%+4.3% to +4.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-18.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SKE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map