Weekly structural research · PAR · Healthcare

ALCGM Stage Analysis

CEGEDIM

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 11.48Tenure NewBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Structural repair

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
A price shock beyond the complete Activity structure bypassed the ordinary persistence gate.

Direction 1−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 14/100directional strength

Maturity 36/100lifecycle context

Confidence 56/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -10.7%EUR 12.86 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	11.48	10.97	0.32	163053	Rotation Up	1	14
2026-09-18	10.50	10.94	-8.01	31512	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2026-09-11	10.32	10.99	-10.82	45566	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2026-09-04	10.34	11.08	-11.76	11530	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2026-08-28	10.28	11.16	-13.68	26029	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2026-08-21	10.38	11.26	-13.89	2694	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-08-14	10.42	11.37	-15.23	2675	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2026-08-07	10.58	11.48	-14.86	6241	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2026-07-31	10.10	11.58	-16.95	697	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2026-07-24	10.10	11.71	-15.88	9703	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2026-07-17	10.16	11.82	-15.20	2805	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2026-07-10	10.46	11.92	-12.82	1639	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2026-07-03	10.54	12.02	-14.03	1752	Balance	-69	56
2026-06-26	11.04	12.11	-8.78	6826	Balance	-56	33
2026-06-19	11.46	12.18	-5.77	5523	Balance	-46	23
2026-06-12	11.26	12.21	-6.70	4073	Balance	-50	25
2026-06-05	11.40	12.24	-4.06	3329	Balance	-38	30
2026-05-29	11.60	12.24	-1.96	13312	Balance	-38	29
2026-05-22	11.54	12.24	-1.72	21525	Balance	-37	26
2026-05-15	11.00	12.26	-4.47	25890	Balance	-52	28
2026-05-08	11.00	12.26	-6.45	41833	Balance	-39	17
2026-05-01	12.00	12.24	1.80	24923	Balance	1	16
2026-04-24	12.30	12.20	3.70	100695	Balance	2	22
2026-04-17	12.50	12.15	1.93	40600	Balance	11	23
2026-04-10	13.10	12.06	8.88	139327	Rotation Down	10	10
2026-04-03	12.60	11.97	8.64	119910	Rotation Down	-20	27
2026-03-27	10.85	11.90	-3.18	89003	Rotation Down	-39	66
2026-03-20	9.10	11.89	-18.60	49547	Rotation Down	-61	84
2026-03-13	10.50	11.95	-9.50	39845	Rotation Down	-38	72
2026-03-06	10.15	11.95	-13.78	55763	Deceleration	-50	71
2026-02-27	10.70	11.97	-15.75	166477	Deceleration	-44	45
2026-02-20	11.90	11.98	-6.08	20736	Deceleration	6	19
2026-02-13	13.00	11.93	4.74	51416	Deceleration	40	24
2026-02-06	12.70	11.84	2.73	50928	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-01-30	13.35	11.78	9.94	35705	Upward Expansion	63	52
2026-01-23	13.75	11.68	13.11	22546	Upward Expansion	68	59
2026-01-16	13.75	11.57	11.92	20504	Upward Expansion	69	58
2026-01-09	13.60	11.47	9.44	45438	Upward Expansion	67	58
2026-01-02	13.85	11.37	13.39	13851	Upward Expansion	78	81
2025-12-26	13.35	11.27	10.40	14689	Upward Expansion	69	79
2025-12-19	13.35	11.21	9.64	63107	Upward Expansion	71	81
2025-12-12	13.25	11.14	9.74	59932	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-12-05	13.30	11.08	9.27	64689	Upward Expansion	79	83
2025-11-28	13.15	11.04	8.17	51199	Upward Expansion	83	78
2025-11-21	12.50	11.00	4.76	57672	Rotation Up	75	67
2025-11-14	12.05	10.98	-1.22	51408	Rotation Up	42	60
2025-11-07	11.50	10.95	-3.20	39821	Rotation Up	32	52
2025-10-31	11.40	10.94	-6.19	24620	Rotation Up	20	42
2025-10-24	12.30	10.93	-0.33	85776	Downward Expansion	40	34
2025-10-17	10.80	10.94	-12.12	57935	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2025-10-10	10.50	11.01	-12.14	68138	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2025-10-03	11.00	11.10	-10.15	62927	Downward Expansion	-29	19
2025-09-26	10.60	11.18	-11.33	43984	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-09-19	10.00	11.27	-16.42	20897	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2025-09-12	10.20	11.40	-14.87	18517	Downward Expansion	-67	42
2025-09-05	10.45	11.50	-11.49	36590	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2025-08-29	10.65	11.56	-10.51	43179	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2025-08-22	10.80	11.62	-12.61	56199	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-08-15	10.65	11.63	-13.67	54483	Downward Expansion	-41	30
2025-08-08	10.70	11.68	-11.64	40303	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2025-08-01	10.90	11.78	-8.00	69388	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2025-07-25	10.55	11.86	-14.53	37845	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2025-07-18	10.40	11.93	-16.02	12698	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2025-07-11	10.70	12.01	-14.09	87089	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2025-07-04	10.50	12.10	-14.56	39848	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2025-06-27	10.45	12.12	-15.30	27857	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2025-06-20	10.70	12.14	-12.48	28462	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2025-06-13	10.60	12.14	-14.72	32163	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2025-06-06	10.85	12.16	-14.45	104473	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2025-05-30	11.40	12.18	-9.90	35374	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2025-05-23	11.40	12.19	-10.05	19527	Deceleration	-35	27
2025-05-16	11.55	12.23	-10.86	46323	Deceleration	-23	19
2025-05-09	11.80	12.26	-7.52	62614	Rotation Down	-26	24
2025-05-02	12.00	12.27	-6.52	35121	Rotation Down	-31	47
2025-04-25	12.00	12.26	-3.97	42580	Rotation Down	-25	53
2025-04-18	11.25	12.28	-6.99	22871	Rotation Down	-31	54
2025-04-11	11.20	12.32	-5.25	62808	Balance	-32	35
2025-04-04	10.95	12.36	-9.72	35934	Balance	-22	22
2025-03-28	12.55	12.42	-5.15	36705	Upward Expansion	35	19
2025-03-21	12.95	12.42	-3.67	31808	Upward Expansion	54	44
2025-03-14	13.25	12.42	-1.66	16165	Upward Expansion	58	60
2025-03-07	13.40	12.40	-2.06	30050	Upward Expansion	59	58
2025-02-28	13.40	12.36	-2.37	32692	Upward Expansion	57	53
2025-02-21	13.65	12.34	-1.49	50163	Balance	62	45
2025-02-14	13.20	12.32	-5.39	63207	Balance	16	11
2025-02-07	12.25	12.31	-10.49	64026	Balance	-10	14
2025-01-31	12.50	12.34	-8.96	83528	Balance	-4	5
2025-01-24	11.20	12.37	-18.74	57740	Rotation Up	-21	12
2025-01-17	12.25	12.42	-9.51	45419	Rotation Up	18	32
2025-01-10	13.75	12.46	4.40	38856	Rotation Up	37	56
2025-01-03	13.00	12.44	0.19	38352	Rotation Up	24	36
2024-12-27	12.70	12.48	-3.72	32470	Rotation Up	15	27
2024-12-20	12.95	12.54	-1.41	87140	Rotation Up	-9	16
2024-12-13	13.50	12.56	0.28	80400	Rotation Up	-16	17
2024-12-06	10.90	12.58	-19.68	65745	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2024-11-29	11.00	12.70	-17.65	52686	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2024-11-22	10.75	12.82	-20.62	21503	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2024-11-15	11.15	12.92	-18.78	40140	Downward Expansion	-77	70
2024-11-08	11.45	13.01	-18.31	44184	Downward Expansion	-74	48
2024-11-01	11.90	13.10	-16.80	17411	Downward Expansion	-65	40
2024-10-25	12.40	13.17	-15.15	3887	Downward Expansion	-53	38
2024-10-18	12.40	13.19	-17.20	8620	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2024-10-11	12.25	13.31	-18.60	26634	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2024-10-04	11.80	13.44	-21.83	20437	Downward Expansion	-77	62
2024-09-27	12.35	13.59	-21.54	28333	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2024-09-20	12.60	13.71	-17.61	12070	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-09-13	12.50	13.83	-18.52	36838	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2024-09-06	12.50	13.97	-18.01	18928	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2024-08-30	12.85	14.09	-19.61	15632	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-08-23	12.75	14.21	-20.48	11312	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-08-16	12.75	14.37	-19.97	17279	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2024-08-09	12.30	14.55	-21.68	11004	Downward Expansion	-75	59
2024-08-02	12.55	14.72	-20.71	43684	Downward Expansion	-74	57
2024-07-26	13.10	14.89	-20.94	21008	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-07-19	13.05	15.05	-22.22	9578	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-07-12	12.95	15.22	-25.50	24689	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2024-07-05	13.40	15.38	-23.28	18917	Downward Expansion	-62	76
2024-06-28	12.80	15.55	-25.68	28521	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2024-06-21	13.35	15.76	-24.74	24977	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2024-06-14	13.30	15.94	-24.54	21216	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2024-06-07	14.15	16.14	-25.28	13187	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-05-31	14.40	16.29	-24.49	11994	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2024-05-24	13.70	16.41	-29.60	17326	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-05-17	14.05	16.54	-28.97	13965	Downward Expansion	-53	40
2024-05-10	14.35	16.67	-28.40	11818	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-05-03	14.80	16.76	-24.23	45530	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2024-04-26	13.75	16.86	-31.15	28559	Downward Expansion	-69	75
2024-04-19	13.85	17.01	-30.59	21908	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2024-04-12	14.10	17.15	-29.65	28611	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2024-04-05	13.90	17.33	-31.47	57893	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2024-03-29	13.00	17.54	-37.45	131354	Downward Expansion	-91	65
2024-03-22	16.06	17.79	-22.83	7725	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-03-15	16.20	17.94	-22.70	5057	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-03-08	16.32	18.08	-21.05	9731	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-03-01	16.06	18.23	-21.58	24547	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2024-02-23	16.10	18.39	-21.85	61106	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2024-02-16	16.76	18.58	-16.80	15652	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2024-02-09	16.00	18.76	-19.45	30769	Downward Expansion	-83	72
2024-02-02	16.52	18.96	-16.45	30348	Downward Expansion	-81	60
2024-01-26	17.60	19.16	-11.71	55846	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2024-01-19	18.02	19.28	-6.64	12574	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-01-12	17.50	19.39	-10.64	17308	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-01-05	17.70	19.47	-9.13	13427	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2023-12-29	17.86	19.55	-9.81	14353	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2023-12-22	17.90	19.62	-9.84	26269	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2023-12-15	17.92	19.66	-9.99	24184	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2023-12-08	18.50	19.71	-6.09	9186	Downward Expansion	-31	22
2023-12-01	18.98	19.73	-1.10	10691	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2023-11-24	19.00	19.75	-0.05	19653	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2023-11-17	19.24	19.77	2.24	20970	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-11-10	18.46	19.76	0.98	20298	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2023-11-03	18.20	19.77	-0.26	17343	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2023-10-27	17.60	19.80	0.21	15872	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2023-10-20	17.78	19.85	1.00	37154	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2023-10-13	17.06	19.89	-5.78	38985	Rotation Down	-85	91
2023-10-06	17.82	19.87	-2.57	51461	Rotation Down	-53	78

Price vs TrendAbove+4.7%

Trend directionFalling-7.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-10.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+9.1%

Price momentumPositive+5.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.29×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

1 / ±100

+55.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

14 /100

-32.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALCGM Directional State ↗ ALCGM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance56

Rotation Up37

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration44

Rotation Down18

Downward Expansion57

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 10%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 60%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-09-18	Developing	+0.4%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-07-03	Developing	-15.7%
Rotation Down	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	+24.8%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	-21.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-02-06	Developing	-3.4%
Rotation Up	2025-10-31	2025-11-21	New	+9.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-10-24	Established	+7.9%
Deceleration	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	-1.3%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+4.9%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-04-11	New	+2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-03-28	Developing	-6.3%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-02-21	New	+9.2%
Rotation Up	2024-12-13	2025-01-24	Developing	-17.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution26

Stage 4 · Declining51

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 72/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.32
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +5.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +0.9%
Healthcare regime cohort: 40th percentile5 in cohort

Test ALCGM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume8.44×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.29×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALCGM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 10.75rising

Slow Activity EUR 10.80falling

Trend Reference EUR 10.97+4.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 12.86-10.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 10.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +32.5%

From structural high -25.0%

From structural low +35.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-4.9%-10.9% to +15.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-2.3%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-1.3%-9.9% to +17.1%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-5.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-8.1%-42.3% to +15.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-9.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-13.2%-24.4% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-21.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALCGM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map