Weekly structural research ยท LSE ยท Basic Materials

MET1 Stage Analysis

Metals One PLC

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close GBP 0.0123Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^FTSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and stable.
Direction -60โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 40/100directional strength
Maturity 100/100lifecycle context
Confidence 96/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedstable separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -87.9%GBP 0.1018 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-250.01230.0143-39.6820908838Downward Expansion-6040
2026-09-180.01240.0145-40.6226944559Downward Expansion-6036
2026-09-110.01280.0148-40.6021901559Downward Expansion-5229
2026-09-040.01320.015-41.4627353543Downward Expansion-3929
2026-08-280.01320.0152-43.6130082334Downward Expansion-5240
2026-08-210.01340.0155-44.2134759186Downward Expansion-5448
2026-08-140.01250.0157-49.306109070Downward Expansion-6559
2026-08-070.01330.016-48.704265966Downward Expansion-5234
2026-07-310.01320.0161-50.772303708Downward Expansion-5337
2026-07-240.0130.0164-52.821781541Downward Expansion-5636
2026-07-170.01280.0166-55.173678262Downward Expansion-5834
2026-07-100.01340.0168-56.5311064425Downward Expansion-5529
2026-07-030.01390.017-62.343683162Downward Expansion-5230
2026-06-260.0140.0172-65.801296846Downward Expansion-5234
2026-06-190.0150.0178-66.016824242Downward Expansion-5536
2026-06-120.0130.0184-73.143277798Downward Expansion-6142
2026-06-050.01290.0192-74.2939501982Downward Expansion-6341
2026-05-290.01370.0199-75.6244193094Downward Expansion-6139
2026-05-220.0150.0207-77.15126115084Downward Expansion-5637
2026-05-150.01460.0215-80.09206105541Downward Expansion-6141
2026-05-080.01420.022-83.1425804343Downward Expansion-6848
2026-05-010.01540.0228-83.3327424432Downward Expansion-6244
2026-04-240.01570.0235-83.9838070302Downward Expansion-6244
2026-04-170.01650.0242-84.2831623128Downward Expansion-5842
2026-04-100.0160.025-85.3420865627Downward Expansion-6450
2026-04-030.01720.0258-84.8231209537Downward Expansion-6049
2026-03-270.01740.0267-84.6442074826Downward Expansion-6356
2026-03-200.01520.0275-86.9521089314Downward Expansion-7675
2026-03-130.01680.0286-86.3523661285Downward Expansion-7371
2026-03-060.01840.0299-85.2921099973Downward Expansion-6567
2026-02-270.01810.0311-86.5321264908Downward Expansion-6551
2026-02-200.01890.0321-85.7231168620Downward Expansion-6350
2026-02-130.02020.0342-84.4420136990Downward Expansion-5046
2026-02-060.01930.0374-85.0225623973Downward Expansion-5350
2026-01-300.02080.0453-83.6942009410Downward Expansion-5253
2026-01-230.02080.0517-83.5451312224Downward Expansion-6360
2026-01-160.02020.0569-84.2643247285Downward Expansion-6562
2026-01-090.01850.0622-85.4844014932Downward Expansion-7067
2026-01-020.0210.0653-83.3230972667Downward Expansion-6867
2025-12-260.01960.0735-84.3924324564Downward Expansion-7169
2025-12-190.01890.0865-85.0541264369Downward Expansion-7771
2025-12-120.01840.1002-85.1780957009Downward Expansion-8574
2025-12-050.020.1156-83.97213881209Downward Expansion-8874
2025-11-280.03290.1252-73.9520804569Downward Expansion-7067
2025-11-210.03340.1327-73.1017217370Downward Expansion-7168
2025-11-140.0370.1379-70.8325303291Downward Expansion-6682
2025-11-070.03380.1435-73.4322683346Downward Expansion-7188
2025-10-310.03580.1511-72.0228614230Downward Expansion-6887
2025-10-240.04050.1566-68.22129886515Downward Expansion-6886
2025-10-170.02950.1624-76.1563773021Downward Expansion-7689
2025-10-100.03670.1644-70.6544810100Downward Expansion-6881
2025-10-030.0370.1662-70.6937079844Downward Expansion-6881
2025-09-260.03760.1684-69.6430295310Downward Expansion-6882
2025-09-190.040.1686-67.5549315651Downward Expansion-6881
2025-09-120.03940.1685-68.3673891613Downward Expansion-6878
2025-09-050.0460.1681-62.87128292075Rotation Down-6573
2025-08-290.03950.1674-68.23120805262Rotation Down-4062
2025-08-220.050.1669-60.63150069756Rotation Down-3962
2025-08-150.05350.1666-57.27479685949Rotation Down-3760
2025-08-080.0550.1661-56.06209123094Rotation Down-2853
2025-08-010.0490.1657-60.92368690991Rotation Down-3043
2025-07-250.0810.1655-36.24222255646Balance-2626
2025-07-180.11740.1642-6.49324585147Balance-411
2025-07-110.2550.1617104.58149964558Balance1213
2025-07-040.2130.154777.4995150798Balance1723
2025-06-270.17670.149350.54120731080Upward Expansion1724
2025-06-200.180.14555.64204359362Upward Expansion2520
2025-06-130.1110.1406-3.58161083787Upward Expansion2720
2025-06-060.26760.1388133.0866548578Upward Expansion6352
2025-05-300.410.1313269.7221004854Upward Expansion6771
2025-05-230.430.1192311.6953457884Upward Expansion7674
2025-05-160.480.1062390.9567041291Upward Expansion9068
2025-05-090.30750.0917242.2330840331Upward Expansion7759
2025-05-020.2580.083196.9134872601Upward Expansion7459
2025-04-250.190.076129.2813131106Upward Expansion6458
2025-04-180.2050.0713154.238351888Upward Expansion6780
2025-04-110.260.0662239.344080888Upward Expansion9296
2025-04-040.2020.0593171.255873026Upward Expansion9095
2025-03-280.2150.0551174.224659209Upward Expansion9797
2025-03-210.090.050417.46387116Rotation Up7380
2025-03-140.090.0515.372585269Rotation Up5151
2025-03-070.10250.049528.052855876Rotation Up4440
2025-02-280.0450.0487-45.571036499Downward Expansion-4631
2025-02-210.0350.0501-58.442063661Downward Expansion-6264
2025-02-140.02750.0518-68.77696575Downward Expansion-6871
2025-02-070.0250.0542-72.661401080Downward Expansion-7464
2025-01-310.025โ€”โ€”2458603Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-240.04โ€”โ€”40901Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-170.04โ€”โ€”377701Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-100.0425โ€”โ€”52076Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-030.0425โ€”โ€”161154Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-270.0425โ€”โ€”147925Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-200.0425โ€”โ€”352742Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-130.045โ€”โ€”247350Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-060.05โ€”โ€”232903Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-290.05โ€”โ€”316836Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-220.0475โ€”โ€”625415Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-150.055โ€”โ€”1072872Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-080.045โ€”โ€”154501Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-010.045โ€”โ€”878949Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-250.04โ€”โ€”366810Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-180.045โ€”โ€”124167Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-110.0475โ€”โ€”117114Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-040.0475โ€”โ€”474575Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-270.05โ€”โ€”513956Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-200.0525โ€”โ€”138779Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-130.0525โ€”โ€”886306Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-060.075โ€”โ€”188587Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-300.075โ€”โ€”192736Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-230.0775โ€”โ€”244895Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-160.075โ€”โ€”550505Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-090.0775โ€”โ€”155796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-020.0875โ€”โ€”867870Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-260.0875โ€”โ€”360550Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-190.0975โ€”โ€”1244296Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-120.09โ€”โ€”584793Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-050.0875โ€”โ€”339905Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-280.095โ€”โ€”206134Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-210.095โ€”โ€”83152Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-140.095โ€”โ€”181072Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-070.10โ€”โ€”135088Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-310.1025โ€”โ€”74500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-240.0975โ€”โ€”790377Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-170.135โ€”โ€”84262Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-100.13โ€”โ€”3043Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-030.135โ€”โ€”32347Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-260.14โ€”โ€”58345Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-190.145โ€”โ€”610955Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-120.105โ€”โ€”32777Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-050.12โ€”โ€”118006Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-290.1175โ€”โ€”176860Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-220.155โ€”โ€”260000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-150.155โ€”โ€”72299Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-080.155โ€”โ€”85093Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-010.175โ€”โ€”46862Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-230.175โ€”โ€”141007Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-160.196โ€”โ€”41610Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-090.205โ€”โ€”50233Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-020.225โ€”โ€”88392Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-260.235โ€”โ€”51118Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-190.255โ€”โ€”35582Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-120.255โ€”โ€”42867Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-050.26โ€”โ€”24308Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-290.265โ€”โ€”4224Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-220.265โ€”โ€”46715Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-150.26โ€”โ€”95436Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-080.31โ€”โ€”30262Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-010.31โ€”โ€”137134Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-240.295โ€”โ€”135408Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-170.29โ€”โ€”97463Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-100.29โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-030.29โ€”โ€”49410Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-270.31โ€”โ€”72762Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-200.29โ€”โ€”32555Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-130.325โ€”โ€”40412Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-060.36โ€”โ€”69531Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-14.2%
Trend directionFalling-13.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-87.9%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-39.7%
Relative strength directionImproving+26.1%
Price momentumNegative-29.2%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.57ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-60 / ยฑ100

-8.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

40 /100

-0.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance35
Rotation Up20
Upward Expansion4
Deceleration49
Rotation Down51
Downward Expansion75

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 86 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 16%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 69%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2025-09-122026-09-25Extended-68.8%
Rotation Down2025-08-012025-09-05Developing-6.1%
Balance2025-07-042025-07-25New-62.0%
Upward Expansion2025-03-282025-06-27Established-17.8%
Rotation Up2025-03-072025-03-21New-12.2%
Downward Expansion2025-02-072025-02-28New+80.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing71
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution0
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
95/100
Current Relative Strength
-39.68
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-29.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-36.5%
Basic Materials regime cohort
63th percentile57 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.67ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity GBP 0.0126falling
Slow Activity GBP 0.0135falling
Trend Reference GBP 0.0143-14.2% close margin
Current Fair Value GBP 0.1018-87.9% close margin
Structural low GBP 0.0115shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +9.3%
Annualized volatility +35.8%
From structural high -73.5%
From structural low +6.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^FTSE Regime survived Read
Near term14-4.2%-40.8% to +310.0%+21.4%+78.6%-4.7%+92.9%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate5-8.9%-53.4% to +1130.0%+20.0%+80.0%-15.2%+80.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended3-23.6%-57.5% to +120.0%+33.3%+66.7%-27.4%+66.7%Too little matched history
Full cycle1-22.6%-22.6% to -22.6%+0.0%+100.0%-41.8%+100.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context