Weekly structural research ยท SHZ ยท Industrials

002786 Stage Analysis

Shenzhen Silver Basis Technology Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 7.56Tenure DevelopingBenchmark 399001.SZ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -21โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 15/100directional strength
Maturity 17/100lifecycle context
Confidence 63/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -19.9%CNY 9.43 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-027.567.77-0.1314403430Balance-2115
2026-09-257.707.78-1.9231757000Balance-33
2026-09-187.897.81-2.4246922819Balance-16
2026-09-117.557.84-6.1327180050Balance-3418
2026-09-047.937.87-2.716808750Balance714
2026-08-288.027.88-5.255741000Balance-1112
2026-08-217.757.92-10.077860428Downward Expansion-3718
2026-08-147.787.95-12.155174340Downward Expansion-5235
2026-08-077.687.99-13.966339506Downward Expansion-5444
2026-07-317.408.02-13.528529874Downward Expansion-5852
2026-07-247.008.06-20.147383600Balance-6749
2026-07-177.698.11-12.8314812100Balance-4127
2026-07-107.598.14-22.447615973Balance-4227
2026-07-038.158.20-20.7016791570Balance-1013
2026-06-267.638.23-27.3911055600Balance-3517
2026-06-198.098.28-25.0671979523Rotation Up1315
2026-06-128.148.32-20.0718639800Rotation Up1925
2026-06-058.838.36-16.1039341756Rotation Up3035
2026-05-298.418.37-22.12186918696Rotation Up1629
2026-05-228.738.40-20.05192749741Downward Expansion325
2026-05-158.418.41-23.5184992899Downward Expansion-1321
2026-05-088.108.44-27.0868395306Downward Expansion-4129
2026-05-017.848.47-27.9982820387Downward Expansion-6149
2026-04-247.068.52-34.9826549843Downward Expansion-7175
2026-04-177.208.61-34.0924543800Downward Expansion-6781
2026-04-107.168.72-32.4422131600Downward Expansion-7489
2026-04-036.898.84-30.9934604488Downward Expansion-9095
2026-03-277.568.94-27.1836448460Downward Expansion-7789
2026-03-207.469.02-29.4228110997Downward Expansion-8890
2026-03-137.859.10-28.6526538000Downward Expansion-8279
2026-03-068.069.17-26.9554921048Downward Expansion-7871
2026-02-278.569.22-24.8422537400Downward Expansion-5857
2026-02-138.559.26-23.5526254723Downward Expansion-5744
2026-02-068.449.29-24.0129130928Downward Expansion-6541
2026-01-308.409.34-26.4941990300Downward Expansion-6837
2026-01-239.049.39-22.6735340268Downward Expansion-4227
2026-01-168.799.40-24.4456949018Downward Expansion-5638
2026-01-098.909.39-23.1842814219Downward Expansion-6055
2026-01-028.609.39-22.9717409123Downward Expansion-6669
2025-12-268.569.41-24.1930759360Downward Expansion-7068
2025-12-198.599.42-21.7733709254Downward Expansion-7062
2025-12-128.759.44-21.6935937203Balance-6653
2025-12-059.149.45-18.2744572070Balance-2520
2025-11-289.129.45-18.1770761707Balance-2418
2025-11-219.029.44-16.8380297707Balance-3020
2025-11-149.399.42-18.4937846102Balance-37
2025-11-079.339.38-20.7651140600Rotation Down-1618
2025-10-319.139.34-23.0862945507Rotation Down-2233
2025-10-249.479.34-20.5782974498Rotation Down-1829
2025-10-178.989.33-21.8547188100Balance-2735
2025-10-109.239.37-24.3223130710Balance-1829
2025-10-039.179.41-26.3220822200Balance817
2025-09-269.259.46-24.3960303971Upward Expansion2720
2025-09-199.749.48-20.06108578206Upward Expansion5541
2025-09-1210.359.52-14.88158654627Upward Expansion6162
2025-09-0510.969.49-7.93273213537Rotation Up8168
2025-08-299.869.44-17.8578556669Rotation Up2729
2025-08-2210.039.41-12.8778775526Rotation Up3631
2025-08-159.749.38-11.4868095800Rotation Up2726
2025-08-089.929.36-5.7464531846Rotation Up3735
2025-08-019.599.32-7.6289658544Rotation Up1941
2025-07-259.689.29-8.2249907288Rotation Up2048
2025-07-189.669.30-6.1951966798Rotation Up1942
2025-07-119.809.34-2.74106521836Balance2433
2025-07-049.969.390.73209571458Balance59
2025-06-279.169.46-6.0751096539Downward Expansion-4422
2025-06-208.759.52-6.9736369100Downward Expansion-5328
2025-06-138.889.60-6.6851364794Downward Expansion-3720
2025-06-069.089.69-5.1830426087Downward Expansion-3317
2025-05-308.989.81-4.8233978600Downward Expansion-3419
2025-05-239.009.93-5.6042551200Downward Expansion-3719
2025-05-169.1210.04-4.9144873620Downward Expansion-4226
2025-05-099.2610.12-3.2679705878Downward Expansion-5740
2025-05-028.7410.16-6.8553566700Downward Expansion-6268
2025-04-258.2810.22-12.2536183340Downward Expansion-6775
2025-04-188.2310.26-12.0136367701Downward Expansion-7074
2025-04-118.2510.31-12.6967466526Balance-6862
2025-04-048.9910.31-10.3029759018Balance-4833
2025-03-289.2110.25-10.7865830800Balance-3918
2025-03-2110.1810.17-2.94139242800Balance1917
2025-03-1410.5410.05-2.98128437606Balance1521
2025-03-0710.549.93-2.81165200846Balance1219
2025-02-2810.009.81-6.67106887587Balance-113
2025-02-2110.749.72-4.05234049310Deceleration810
2025-02-149.629.60-12.73101625602Deceleration-817
2025-02-079.569.52-11.9544649999Rotation Down-1924
2025-01-318.789.45-16.4411644819Rotation Down-2752
2025-01-249.089.42-15.7061794529Rotation Down-2247
2025-01-179.379.38-12.97105473532Deceleration-2036
2025-01-108.729.33-17.1860633834Deceleration-927
2025-01-038.639.32-20.0051070148Deceleration-817
2024-12-279.839.29-16.5972597600Deceleration2615
2024-12-2010.919.26-9.0077063621Deceleration3824
2024-12-1311.449.20-5.90103658737Deceleration4126
2024-12-0611.869.16-3.62229861261Upward Expansion4629
2024-11-2911.139.10-8.47113566549Upward Expansion4635
2024-11-2211.099.08-7.58140027501Upward Expansion6148
2024-11-1511.439.05-7.93246910761Upward Expansion6557
2024-11-0812.869.000.14262867124Upward Expansion7782
2024-11-0112.548.934.85456709695Rotation Up8083
2024-10-2512.218.891.30318425341Rotation Up5778
2024-10-1811.458.89-1.86378780297Rotation Up5677
2024-10-1110.568.95-6.16348310077Rotation Up4165
2024-10-0410.479.08-10.48103108933Rotation Up4753
2024-09-279.639.19-8.22467047900Rotation Up1835
2024-09-209.649.319.01281723754Rotation Up418
2024-09-138.329.39-3.84388096896Downward Expansion-4134
2024-09-067.059.40-19.34164295172Downward Expansion-6258
2024-08-306.879.52-23.0241493500Downward Expansion-6462
2024-08-236.539.72-25.1245840300Downward Expansion-7868
2024-08-166.979.96-21.4653908700Downward Expansion-7065
2024-08-096.9410.24-21.8071026000Downward Expansion-7468
2024-08-027.4110.52-17.6887597170Downward Expansion-6765
2024-07-267.0910.81-21.2252228520Downward Expansion-7873
2024-07-197.2011.18-22.3745392900Downward Expansion-8079
2024-07-127.5711.40-17.5781583136Downward Expansion-7577
2024-07-057.6911.58-14.3199865531Downward Expansion-7584
2024-06-288.0211.78-11.70133182626Downward Expansion-7188
2024-06-217.9211.91-14.2545380080Downward Expansion-7589
2024-06-148.2112.10-12.2949032184Downward Expansion-7589
2024-06-077.9612.10-14.4076821376Downward Expansion-8591
2024-05-318.9612.10-4.1651189800Downward Expansion-7682
2024-05-249.0212.04-3.36112749800Downward Expansion-7876
2024-05-1710.2311.977.3577678387Rotation Down-3452
2024-05-1010.1711.867.67106048336Rotation Down-3656
2024-05-0310.3111.7412.0353161500Rotation Down-3556
2024-04-2610.2411.5914.0995442120Rotation Down-3754
2024-04-1910.0211.4615.24159146720Deceleration-2942
2024-04-1210.6511.3324.6596607595Deceleration-416
2024-04-0511.4011.1830.7171710883Deceleration1710
2024-03-2912.1710.9943.38169842877Deceleration3222
2024-03-2213.2010.8155.03251630377Deceleration3727
2024-03-1514.4710.6071.47291633889Deceleration4427
2024-03-0813.8410.3271.30427953351Deceleration2314
2024-03-0113.1110.0763.85455791834Deceleration1317
2024-02-2312.219.8561.21345145287Deceleration919
2024-02-098.439.6416.14192981523Deceleration317
2024-02-0210.649.5761.49162195603Deceleration2719
2024-01-2612.989.4384.03215032307Upward Expansion4229
2024-01-1913.719.2297.66337141954Upward Expansion5743
2024-01-1215.448.96122.27547582687Upward Expansion6355
2024-01-0515.278.62122.89399465033Upward Expansion6659
2023-12-2916.068.30130.40637058322Upward Expansion7163
2023-12-2218.367.96178.57692876168Upward Expansion9275
2023-12-1513.887.55114.33501210136Upward Expansion7567
2023-12-0812.917.27100.28646348192Upward Expansion7288
2023-12-0113.537.02110.35526007914Upward Expansion8794
2023-11-2412.136.7590.56428794969Upward Expansion8693
2023-11-1713.436.53112.09283356477Upward Expansion9896
2023-11-108.346.2834.81312134210Upward Expansion7875
2023-11-037.946.2031.06332080320Upward Expansion7469
2023-10-277.206.1420.84276106489Balance6356
2023-10-206.746.1416.27267392671Balance5141
2023-10-136.986.1515.20277817272Balance5838
2023-09-296.526.217.68129109400Balance75
2023-09-225.886.26-3.20144591991Balance-4022
Price vs TrendBelow-2.7%
Trend directionFalling-3.6%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-19.9%
Fair Value directionMoving away-7.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+20.6%
Price momentumPositive+9.7%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.85ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-21 / ยฑ100

-27.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

15 /100

+1.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance58
Rotation Up34
Upward Expansion19
Deceleration49
Rotation Down42
Downward Expansion40

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 35%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-08-282026-10-02Developing-5.7%
Downward Expansion2026-07-312026-08-21New+4.7%
Balance2026-06-262026-07-24Developing-8.3%
Rotation Up2026-05-292026-06-19New-3.8%
Downward Expansion2025-12-192026-05-22Established+1.6%
Balance2025-11-142025-12-12Developing-6.8%
Rotation Down2025-10-242025-11-07New-1.5%
Balance2025-10-032025-10-17New-2.1%
Upward Expansion2025-09-122025-09-26New-10.6%
Rotation Up2025-07-182025-09-05Developing+13.5%
Balance2025-07-042025-07-11New-1.6%
Downward Expansion2025-04-182025-06-27Developing+11.3%
Balance2025-02-282025-04-11Developing-17.5%
Deceleration2025-02-142025-02-21New+11.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing62
Stage 2 ยท Advancing29
Stage 3 ยท Distribution32
Stage 4 ยท Declining71

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
54/100
Current Relative Strength
-0.13
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+9.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+13.2%
Industrials regime cohort
62th percentile211 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.40ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.85ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CNY 7.69falling
Slow Activity CNY 7.79falling
Trend Reference CNY 7.77-2.7% close margin
Current Fair Value CNY 9.43-19.9% close margin
Structural low CNY 6.83shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.0%
Annualized volatility +34.6%
From structural high -25.8%
From structural low +10.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs 399001.SZ Regime survived Read
Near term21-3.7%-17.6% to +68.5%+42.9%+42.9%+0.6%+57.1%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate9-1.8%-13.5% to +25.2%+44.4%+44.4%+4.0%+55.6%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5-1.4%-21.9% to +67.8%+40.0%+40.0%+4.0%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3+4.9%-19.4% to +9.5%+66.7%+66.7%+22.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context