Weekly structural research · TOR · Basic Materials

ELO Stage Analysis

Eloro Resources Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CAD 1.71Tenure NewBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 39/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +11.3%CAD 1.54 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.71	1.92	-22.02	451100	Balance	-52	39
2026-09-25	1.78	1.94	-19.57	335800	Balance	-43	29
2026-09-18	1.83	1.97	-17.35	557900	Balance	-31	15
2026-09-11	1.81	2.01	-17.73	407300	Rotation Up	-16	19
2026-09-04	2.01	2.05	-10.32	391900	Rotation Up	4	29
2026-08-28	2.05	2.07	-8.11	230900	Downward Expansion	4	30
2026-08-21	2.08	2.10	-6.47	170200	Downward Expansion	-3	24
2026-08-14	2.05	2.13	-7.62	85100	Downward Expansion	-19	19
2026-08-07	2.03	2.17	-7.42	170300	Downward Expansion	-37	33
2026-07-31	1.65	2.20	-22.13	77400	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2026-07-24	1.63	2.25	-23.37	132300	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2026-07-17	1.63	2.29	-23.30	76400	Downward Expansion	-71	81
2026-07-10	1.61	2.31	-24.52	132800	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2026-07-03	1.73	2.33	-18.79	42500	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2026-06-26	1.69	2.34	-19.98	146200	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2026-06-19	1.81	2.34	-14.25	72800	Downward Expansion	-67	61
2026-06-12	1.97	2.33	-6.34	154900	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2026-06-05	1.93	2.31	-6.55	342800	Balance	-56	27
2026-05-29	2.16	2.28	3.92	526800	Balance	-5	10
2026-05-22	2.05	2.26	0.11	573800	Balance	-10	10
2026-05-15	2.32	2.23	16.13	1004900	Balance	-6	8
2026-05-08	2.23	2.21	11.98	1212500	Deceleration	-11	12
2026-05-01	2.01	2.19	2.40	952000	Deceleration	-15	18
2026-04-24	1.93	2.17	-0.98	898800	Deceleration	-21	22
2026-04-17	2.16	2.16	10.06	1344900	Rotation Down	-19	32
2026-04-10	1.96	2.12	2.62	677700	Rotation Down	-23	51
2026-04-03	1.96	2.10	5.05	1092900	Rotation Down	-23	45
2026-03-27	1.83	2.07	2.38	1186000	Deceleration	-27	36
2026-03-20	1.76	2.04	1.21	1323300	Deceleration	-12	25
2026-03-13	2.13	2.02	18.15	1363700	Deceleration	18	15
2026-03-06	2.45	2.00	34.58	2528100	Deceleration	38	24
2026-02-27	2.69	1.96	44.26	3956000	Deceleration	43	31
2026-02-20	3.11	1.91	71.73	907400	Upward Expansion	55	39
2026-02-13	2.86	1.86	64.56	1918700	Upward Expansion	49	40
2026-02-06	2.68	1.81	59.57	1993900	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-01-30	2.82	1.76	73.17	2226000	Upward Expansion	67	65
2026-01-23	3.16	1.71	90.17	2016800	Upward Expansion	74	86
2026-01-16	3.07	1.65	88.97	1521500	Upward Expansion	74	90
2026-01-09	3.14	1.59	100.03	1961400	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-01-02	3.14	1.52	109.42	1482700	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-12-26	2.64	1.46	80.13	780600	Upward Expansion	88	94
2025-12-19	2.44	1.40	71.23	2146900	Upward Expansion	86	88
2025-12-12	2.13	1.36	53.33	2724300	Upward Expansion	79	80
2025-12-05	1.84	1.32	35.19	1990500	Upward Expansion	71	67
2025-11-28	1.89	1.29	39.87	1200500	Upward Expansion	73	38
2025-11-21	1.34	1.26	4.03	589300	Balance	26	18
2025-11-14	1.39	1.25	7.89	1024200	Upward Expansion	29	18
2025-11-07	1.20	1.23	-5.03	1000300	Upward Expansion	22	11
2025-10-31	1.35	1.22	5.73	885000	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-10-24	1.41	1.21	10.25	877600	Upward Expansion	59	64
2025-10-17	1.55	1.19	22.33	1771200	Upward Expansion	63	69
2025-10-10	1.54	1.18	22.86	810700	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-10-03	1.55	1.17	21.80	1998200	Deceleration	65	53
2025-09-26	1.51	1.14	22.26	1669400	Deceleration	50	22
2025-09-19	1.20	1.13	-2.27	2139300	Deceleration	4	17
2025-09-12	1.11	1.12	-8.12	3022100	Deceleration	1	20
2025-09-05	1.07	1.12	-10.92	2495400	Deceleration	6	17
2025-08-29	1.15	1.12	-2.75	1594300	Deceleration	25	17
2025-08-22	1.15	1.12	-2.02	1307800	Upward Expansion	33	18
2025-08-15	1.35	1.12	16.49	261500	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-08-08	1.37	1.11	19.07	214600	Upward Expansion	64	50
2025-08-01	1.25	1.10	12.20	298500	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-07-25	1.45	1.08	28.20	465700	Upward Expansion	77	78
2025-07-18	1.48	1.06	31.99	544100	Upward Expansion	87	83
2025-07-11	1.26	1.04	13.70	280600	Upward Expansion	67	69
2025-07-04	1.24	1.03	11.50	203500	Upward Expansion	66	71
2025-06-27	1.27	1.02	14.90	551200	Upward Expansion	74	75
2025-06-20	1.15	1.02	4.46	225500	Upward Expansion	59	64
2025-06-13	1.24	1.00	11.70	527600	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-06-06	1.16	0.9913	3.90	491100	Balance	58	43
2025-05-30	1.11	0.9837	-0.73	260900	Balance	43	24
2025-05-23	1.06	0.9803	-5.55	195700	Balance	16	9
2025-05-16	0.96	0.9807	-15.99	154500	Balance	-8	6
2025-05-09	0.97	0.9873	-14.64	343300	Balance	-10	11
2025-05-02	0.93	0.9873	-18.37	306700	Balance	-14	19
2025-04-25	0.96	0.9863	-15.93	954500	Balance	-12	20
2025-04-18	0.94	0.9843	-17.40	582500	Balance	-12	17
2025-04-11	0.97	0.9853	-13.59	864900	Balance	-6	7
2025-04-04	0.86	0.9867	-23.01	1152300	Balance	-16	7
2025-03-28	0.90	0.988	-25.73	1317500	Balance	18	9
2025-03-21	1.24	0.9903	0.42	630800	Balance	64	31
2025-03-14	1.13	0.9847	-7.22	659200	Balance	43	22
2025-03-07	0.90	0.981	-27.05	278800	Balance	14	13
2025-02-28	1.00	0.9793	-21.90	476000	Upward Expansion	49	27
2025-02-21	1.00	0.9767	-21.67	270300	Upward Expansion	54	45
2025-02-14	1.11	0.98	-14.74	207600	Rotation Up	60	63
2025-02-07	1.16	0.9823	-11.40	320300	Rotation Up	40	53
2025-01-31	1.09	0.983	-17.80	368300	Balance	23	29
2025-01-24	1.15	0.9917	-14.33	557200	Balance	28	22
2025-01-17	0.98	0.9933	-26.90	197300	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2025-01-10	0.96	1.00	-28.58	239700	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2025-01-03	0.87	1.02	-37.19	113700	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2024-12-27	0.85	1.04	-39.24	238000	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2024-12-20	0.85	1.07	-40.17	301900	Downward Expansion	-57	25
2024-12-13	0.93	1.10	-37.97	270600	Downward Expansion	-48	24
2024-12-06	0.96	1.12	-38.13	224900	Downward Expansion	-47	29
2024-11-29	1.08	1.15	-31.32	433700	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2024-11-22	0.83	1.17	-47.29	241800	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2024-11-15	0.83	1.20	-46.79	284900	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2024-11-08	0.93	1.22	-40.86	268800	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2024-11-01	1.01	1.24	-35.18	270000	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2024-10-25	1.07	1.26	-32.66	483100	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2024-10-18	1.16	1.27	-28.97	354500	Downward Expansion	-35	26
2024-10-11	0.97	1.28	-40.66	451700	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-10-04	0.90	1.29	-45.18	191300	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2024-09-27	0.90	1.31	-45.58	368500	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2024-09-20	0.97	1.32	-42.03	256900	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-09-13	1.01	1.33	-39.76	304900	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-09-06	0.90	1.34	-45.41	139600	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2024-08-30	0.97	1.36	-43.60	112100	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2024-08-23	1.07	1.38	-38.81	212000	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2024-08-16	1.02	1.41	-42.67	216900	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-08-09	0.85	1.43	-51.98	293900	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2024-08-02	0.92	1.46	-49.44	302700	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2024-07-26	1.10	1.50	-42.64	253500	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-07-19	1.18	1.53	-39.59	273700	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2024-07-12	1.18	1.58	-41.13	321100	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2024-07-05	1.35	1.60	-32.72	120700	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2024-06-28	1.20	1.61	-41.12	360500	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2024-06-21	1.31	1.62	-36.47	130900	Balance	-51	33
2024-06-14	1.42	1.63	-33.12	236100	Balance	-40	22
2024-06-07	1.51	1.63	-31.61	367000	Rotation Up	-6	8
2024-05-31	1.69	1.63	-25.93	214500	Rotation Up	15	18
2024-05-24	1.65	1.63	-29.02	246300	Rotation Up	13	20
2024-05-17	1.78	1.63	-24.83	269000	Rotation Up	23	29
2024-05-10	1.67	1.63	-29.90	219500	Balance	15	18
2024-05-03	1.61	1.64	-32.30	173400	Balance	-9	15
2024-04-26	1.80	1.64	-25.63	489500	Downward Expansion	-4	17
2024-04-19	1.47	1.65	-39.74	259900	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2024-04-12	1.55	1.66	-37.88	562500	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2024-04-05	1.73	1.68	-33.07	453600	Downward Expansion	-27	19
2024-03-29	1.40	1.69	-46.51	271300	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-03-22	1.26	1.73	-52.41	250500	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2024-03-15	1.26	1.79	-53.20	761400	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2024-03-08	1.46	1.85	-46.54	499600	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2024-03-01	1.24	1.92	-54.91	503300	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2024-02-23	1.21	1.98	-56.46	386000	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-02-16	1.33	2.04	-52.48	485900	Downward Expansion	-74	65
2024-02-09	1.48	2.12	-47.24	408100	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-02-02	1.75	2.19	-38.62	289600	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2024-01-26	1.80	2.25	-37.60	217800	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2024-01-19	1.68	2.31	-41.68	242500	Downward Expansion	-28	16
2024-01-12	1.87	2.38	-35.97	264000	Downward Expansion	-6	21
2024-01-05	2.01	2.44	-31.79	149200	Downward Expansion	-6	26
2023-12-29	2.17	2.49	-27.21	145500	Downward Expansion	-4	25
2023-12-22	2.42	2.53	-19.58	347900	Downward Expansion	-11	22
2023-12-15	1.91	2.54	-36.01	187100	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2023-12-08	1.73	2.58	-42.18	299100	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2023-12-01	1.47	2.63	-51.80	353400	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2023-11-24	1.47	2.69	-51.61	236600	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2023-11-17	1.56	2.76	-49.49	123700	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2023-11-10	1.48	2.83	-51.25	157900	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2023-11-03	1.56	2.91	-49.55	225100	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2023-10-27	1.64	2.98	-44.43	232700	Downward Expansion	-77	70
2023-10-20	1.89	3.05	-37.84	201200	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2023-10-13	1.94	3.11	-37.97	132000	Downward Expansion	-68	84

Price vs TrendBelow-10.8%

Trend directionFalling-15.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+11.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.2%

Price momentumNegative-12.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.58×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-56.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

39 /100

+10.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ELO Directional State ↗ ELO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration62

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion70

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-6.6%
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-10.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-08-28	Developing	+4.1%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-06-05	New	-16.8%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-08	New	+15.5%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+10.2%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-03-27	Developing	-32.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-02-20	Established	+64.6%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-11-21	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-9.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-29	2025-10-03	Developing	+34.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-08-22	Developing	-7.3%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-06-06	Established	+28.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -22.02
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -12.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.0%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 76th percentile37 in cohort

Test ELO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.58×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ELO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 1.79falling

Slow Activity CAD 1.88falling

Trend Reference CAD 1.92-10.8% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 1.54+11.3% close margin

Structural low CAD 1.54shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.5%

Annualized volatility +53.3%

From structural high -50.0%

From structural low +48.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	-3.1%-39.0% to +82.1%	+41.7%	+41.7%	-3.3%	+45.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-11.7%-49.2% to +132.1%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-12.2%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-9.0%-37.6% to +53.0%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-13.1%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-12.5%-75.4% to +174.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-10.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ELO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map