Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

BBWI Stage Analysis

Bath & Body Works, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 295.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -89−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 95/100directional strength

Maturity 21/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -47.2%MXN 559.16 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	295.00	340.67	-18.33	20	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2026-09-18	305.90	343.74	-14.13	20	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2026-09-11	319.80	347.54	-11.82	0	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2026-09-04	319.80	350.01	-13.95	0	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2026-08-28	319.80	352.54	-15.96	595	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2026-08-21	345.00	355.08	-11.01	0	Deceleration	-14	29
2026-08-14	341.56	356.77	-11.24	0	Balance	-15	30
2026-08-07	341.61	358.58	-15.70	0	Balance	-11	18
2026-07-31	341.62	360.39	-16.84	0	Rotation Up	3	12
2026-07-24	341.59	361.16	-17.33	20	Rotation Up	14	46
2026-07-17	403.77	361.37	-4.13	0	Rotation Up	36	74
2026-07-10	404.00	359.94	-5.16	0	Rotation Up	39	69
2026-07-03	404.00	358.50	-7.24	0	Rotation Up	44	47
2026-06-26	397.00	356.59	-10.29	28	Rotation Up	17	24
2026-06-19	351.60	354.21	-22.01	0	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2026-06-12	329.00	351.81	-28.20	35	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-06-05	309.70	354.46	-31.28	0	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2026-05-29	347.78	359.70	-26.43	143	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-05-22	290.81	363.67	-39.01	2081	Downward Expansion	-86	66
2026-05-15	315.10	370.74	-34.61	150	Downward Expansion	-75	52
2026-05-08	328.79	376.38	-34.65	300	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2026-05-01	340.78	381.27	-31.40	75	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2026-04-24	346.30	385.67	-32.49	9468	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-04-17	335.78	390.38	-35.84	17329	Downward Expansion	-68	89
2026-04-10	313.80	394.56	-41.02	81	Downward Expansion	-92	97
2026-04-03	320.79	400.41	-40.33	0	Downward Expansion	-92	97
2026-03-27	321.00	408.26	-38.66	1325	Downward Expansion	-93	97
2026-03-20	360.00	415.99	-29.58	25	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2026-03-13	360.00	422.24	-32.14	2400	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2026-03-06	368.55	428.49	-33.18	630	Balance	-55	48
2026-02-27	387.00	434.46	-35.44	57	Balance	-11	22
2026-02-20	420.00	439.85	-31.63	153	Balance	13	29
2026-02-13	393.81	445.25	-37.10	8	Downward Expansion	-20	21
2026-02-06	395.81	451.86	-37.37	0	Downward Expansion	-30	26
2026-01-30	395.81	458.80	-35.63	0	Downward Expansion	-33	32
2026-01-23	395.81	466.11	-37.39	0	Downward Expansion	-39	30
2026-01-16	395.81	471.72	-37.58	0	Downward Expansion	-44	38
2026-01-09	395.81	476.50	-37.74	13	Downward Expansion	-48	48
2026-01-02	364.83	479.61	-41.93	15	Downward Expansion	-53	57
2025-12-26	347.84	484.42	-47.01	44	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-12-19	360.83	491.16	-44.73	5	Downward Expansion	-65	86
2025-12-12	360.83	498.70	-46.30	22338	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2025-12-05	346.84	507.06	-48.13	12989	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-11-28	325.44	515.89	-52.28	15645	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-11-21	279.60	522.98	-58.58	15627	Downward Expansion	-96	96
2025-11-14	408.59	531.59	-40.78	1934	Downward Expansion	-89	67
2025-11-07	466.90	535.90	-34.17	0	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2025-10-31	466.90	538.27	-33.94	7240	Downward Expansion	-75	56
2025-10-24	502.83	542.61	-27.44	9803	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-10-17	484.43	545.75	-31.26	886	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2025-10-10	475.44	549.51	-31.72	4705	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-10-03	472.65	553.56	-34.01	1740	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2025-09-26	487.62	565.82	-32.64	5997	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2025-09-19	461.37	577.58	-35.48	3931	Downward Expansion	-90	85
2025-09-12	489.24	587.67	-32.63	6306	Downward Expansion	-83	62
2025-09-05	556.18	596.83	-22.01	3114	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-08-29	552.85	603.76	-20.44	9229	Downward Expansion	-56	50
2025-08-22	547.71	610.80	-22.12	0	Downward Expansion	-51	54
2025-08-15	547.51	618.01	-21.33	0	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2025-08-08	547.51	625.04	-21.55	12	Balance	-49	32
2025-08-01	548.68	631.50	-20.36	189	Balance	-29	18
2025-07-25	582.10	639.98	-16.75	264	Balance	-8	24
2025-07-18	592.09	646.69	-14.29	436	Downward Expansion	-11	28
2025-07-11	604.08	651.57	-13.51	88	Downward Expansion	-28	30
2025-07-04	615.05	656.05	-14.43	3815	Downward Expansion	-40	38
2025-06-27	564.13	660.16	-21.16	10837	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2025-06-20	539.17	665.97	-23.66	3093	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2025-06-13	489.13	669.62	-32.64	1112	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2025-06-06	509.22	674.93	-31.23	14573	Downward Expansion	-83	61
2025-05-30	549.94	676.96	-26.05	982	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2025-05-23	586.87	677.63	-22.32	11716	Downward Expansion	-48	42
2025-05-16	611.82	679.50	-18.84	0	Downward Expansion	-55	57
2025-05-09	611.82	680.53	-17.08	50	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-05-02	537.96	679.19	-26.35	0	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2025-04-25	537.96	680.31	-27.90	0	Rotation Down	-80	93
2025-04-18	537.96	682.16	-23.25	0	Rotation Down	-60	86
2025-04-11	537.96	683.35	-21.36	975	Rotation Down	-64	87
2025-04-04	597.06	682.88	-12.99	0	Rotation Down	-41	59
2025-03-28	597.06	682.60	-15.96	0	Rotation Down	-52	63
2025-03-21	597.06	682.88	-15.38	0	Rotation Down	-28	41
2025-03-14	597.06	684.85	-15.30	9	Rotation Down	8	13
2025-03-07	840.38	689.88	18.09	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-02-28	840.38	686.79	19.55	5	Upward Expansion	96	97
2025-02-21	764.22	683.71	6.20	0	Upward Expansion	54	72
2025-02-14	764.02	683.17	5.61	0	Upward Expansion	55	74
2025-02-07	764.02	682.63	8.28	0	Upward Expansion	55	58
2025-01-31	764.02	682.09	11.90	0	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-01-24	764.02	681.55	12.02	13	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-01-17	758.34	681.01	14.74	1140	Rotation Up	66	67
2025-01-10	741.37	680.67	13.19	1138	Rotation Up	41	63
2025-01-03	803.24	680.88	24.47	568	Rotation Up	64	87
2024-12-27	783.28	679.04	21.06	69	Rotation Up	63	87
2024-12-20	738.48	677.85	14.34	0	Rotation Up	39	79
2024-12-13	738.48	678.16	10.53	0	Rotation Up	44	80
2024-12-06	738.48	678.47	11.72	0	Rotation Up	48	64
2024-11-29	738.48	678.77	15.71	2141	Rotation Up	24	33
2024-11-22	648.58	679.08	1.05	0	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2024-11-15	648.38	682.38	1.28	880	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2024-11-08	570.07	685.69	-13.03	0	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2024-11-01	570.07	691.61	-10.81	2000	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2024-10-25	642.88	697.54	-1.51	0	Downward Expansion	-46	41
2024-10-18	642.88	701.03	-3.56	121	Downward Expansion	-52	54
2024-10-11	571.57	704.52	-13.15	0	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-10-04	571.57	710.39	-13.57	500	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2024-09-27	593.51	717.19	-10.60	5	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-09-20	573.56	723.00	-12.60	14598	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2024-09-13	523.94	729.47	-19.88	7703	Downward Expansion	-97	79
2024-09-06	588.53	737.04	-8.54	14901	Downward Expansion	-96	78
2024-08-30	605.48	742.45	-9.11	10758	Downward Expansion	-95	78
2024-08-23	656.16	745.93	-2.50	3241	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2024-08-16	747.89	747.71	10.13	0	Deceleration	14	56
2024-08-09	747.89	748.14	12.76	0	Deceleration	2	66
2024-08-02	747.89	748.58	15.06	0	Deceleration	-20	52
2024-07-26	747.89	749.02	14.42	0	Deceleration	-20	52
2024-07-19	747.89	744.40	13.21	0	Deceleration	16	51
2024-07-12	747.89	739.77	11.11	0	Upward Expansion	25	54
2024-07-05	747.89	735.15	17.18	0	Upward Expansion	53	84
2024-06-28	747.89	730.53	17.32	0	Upward Expansion	53	84
2024-06-21	747.89	724.39	16.78	0	Upward Expansion	53	84
2024-06-14	747.89	718.20	18.25	0	Deceleration	53	84
2024-06-07	747.89	712.01	16.87	0	Deceleration	52	62
2024-05-31	747.69	704.42	12.41	0	Deceleration	47	73
2024-05-24	747.69	696.83	12.02	0	Upward Expansion	48	79
2024-05-17	747.69	689.25	7.90	0	Upward Expansion	47	79
2024-05-10	747.69	683.03	8.03	0	Upward Expansion	43	79
2024-05-03	747.69	676.81	9.55	0	Upward Expansion	51	58
2024-04-26	747.69	670.60	8.48	0	Upward Expansion	51	79
2024-04-19	747.69	664.38	12.56	0	Upward Expansion	49	71
2024-04-12	747.69	658.17	11.45	0	Upward Expansion	51	73
2024-04-05	747.69	652.74	8.79	0	Upward Expansion	53	65
2024-03-29	747.69	647.31	10.33	0	Upward Expansion	53	56
2024-03-22	747.69	641.88	12.03	0	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-03-15	747.69	636.45	13.00	20	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-03-08	775.60	631.02	20.17	17	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-03-01	767.63	624.66	17.32	0	Upward Expansion	77	71
2024-02-23	767.63	618.56	14.69	14	Upward Expansion	84	73
2024-02-16	751.05	612.46	10.87	0	Upward Expansion	80	72
2024-02-09	751.05	606.91	10.06	10	Upward Expansion	82	73
2024-02-02	709.62	601.36	1.92	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-01-26	709.62	599.62	3.95	617	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-01-19	761.00	599.20	13.93	0	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-01-12	761.00	597.07	13.42	0	Rotation Up	99	100
2024-01-05	761.00	594.94	12.04	300	Rotation Up	71	90
2023-12-29	609.22	592.80	-12.43	0	Rotation Up	38	70
2023-12-22	609.22	595.73	-13.12	0	Rotation Up	47	61
2023-12-15	609.22	598.65	-13.53	0	Rotation Up	30	52
2023-12-08	609.22	597.76	-9.93	1000	Rotation Up	11	37
2023-12-01	563.77	596.88	-16.48	766	Downward Expansion	-47	41
2023-11-24	562.18	599.35	-15.86	0	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2023-11-17	562.18	601.86	-16.06	1260	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2023-11-10	520.09	604.38	-20.67	0	Downward Expansion	-95	78
2023-11-03	520.09	608.30	-20.92	0	Downward Expansion	-98	99
2023-10-27	520.09	612.22	-17.49	1600	Downward Expansion	-99	100
2023-10-20	561.22	616.15	-10.08	0	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2023-10-13	561.22	618.70	-12.41	0	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2023-10-06	561.22	621.25	-13.34	0	Downward Expansion	-81	91

Price vs TrendBelow-13.4%

Trend directionFalling-5.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-47.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-15.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-8.0%

Price momentumNegative-8.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-89 / ±100

-23.3 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

95 /100

+38.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BBWI Directional State ↗ BBWI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance17

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down86

Downward Expansion98

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 13%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 53%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-7.8%
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-08-21	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	-0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-13.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-06-19	Established	-2.3%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-03-06	New	-12.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-02-13	Extended	-28.1%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-5.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-07-18	Developing	+10.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-25	Developing	-9.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-03-07	Developing	+10.0%
Rotation Up	2024-11-29	2025-01-17	Developing	+2.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-23	2024-11-22	Established	-1.2%
Deceleration	2024-07-19	2024-08-16	Developing	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution24

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.33
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -8.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 71th percentile48 in cohort

Test BBWI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.13×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BBWI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 307.83falling

Slow Activity MXN 338.83falling

Trend Reference MXN 340.67-13.4% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 559.16-47.2% close margin

Structural low MXN 279.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +49.2%

From structural high -41.3%

From structural low +10.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	36	+0.0%-27.8% to +33.4%	+47.2%	+44.4%	-0.3%	+80.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-3.6%-25.4% to +36.4%	+30.8%	+69.2%	-6.0%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-13.2%-27.0% to +43.8%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-11.8%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-19.8%-37.0% to +17.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-25.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BBWI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map