Weekly structural research · HKG · Real Estate

2165 Stage Analysis

Ling Yue Services Group Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close HKD 1.64Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: moderate and stable.

Direction -41−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 48/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatestable separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +17.1%HKD 1.41 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.64	1.68	-0.94	2124000	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2026-09-25	1.52	1.68	-10.36	204000	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2026-09-18	1.54	1.70	-11.06	33000	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2026-09-11	1.50	1.71	-13.74	163000	Downward Expansion	-64	37
2026-09-04	1.53	1.72	-15.49	333000	Downward Expansion	-49	23
2026-08-28	1.64	1.73	-9.60	21000	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2026-08-21	1.65	1.74	-11.34	16000	Downward Expansion	-33	22
2026-08-14	1.62	1.75	-9.82	0	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2026-08-07	1.60	1.76	-13.08	0	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2026-07-31	1.59	1.76	-14.41	4000	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2026-07-24	1.61	1.78	-10.32	134000	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-07-17	1.59	1.78	-10.04	0	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2026-07-10	1.47	1.80	-15.53	15000	Downward Expansion	-76	67
2026-07-03	1.47	1.81	-12.56	39000	Downward Expansion	-81	63
2026-06-26	1.58	1.83	-3.04	101000	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2026-06-19	1.55	1.84	-9.51	189000	Downward Expansion	-82	79
2026-06-12	1.66	1.86	-6.01	0	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2026-06-05	1.63	1.87	-8.34	26000	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2026-05-29	1.69	1.88	-5.58	33000	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2026-05-22	1.69	1.88	-6.79	224000	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2026-05-15	1.78	1.89	-2.80	81000	Downward Expansion	-62	68
2026-05-08	1.74	1.89	-6.16	49000	Downward Expansion	-79	77
2026-05-01	1.82	1.90	0.79	18000	Downward Expansion	-58	59
2026-04-24	1.83	1.90	0.90	116000	Balance	-53	47
2026-04-17	1.80	1.91	-1.16	256000	Balance	-57	37
2026-04-10	1.91	1.92	6.27	54000	Balance	-24	11
2026-04-03	1.88	1.94	8.27	49000	Balance	-21	10
2026-03-27	1.92	1.95	11.96	21000	Balance	-12	8
2026-03-20	1.90	1.96	10.05	77000	Balance	-23	14
2026-03-13	1.95	1.95	12.74	47000	Balance	-16	12
2026-03-06	1.88	1.94	8.17	157000	Balance	-31	16
2026-02-27	1.94	1.93	8.51	108000	Deceleration	-25	13
2026-02-20	1.88	1.92	6.51	3000	Deceleration	-47	31
2026-02-13	1.89	1.92	6.87	21000	Deceleration	-21	19
2026-02-06	1.87	1.91	6.12	69000	Deceleration	-24	27
2026-01-30	1.80	1.90	-0.79	446000	Deceleration	-38	40
2026-01-23	1.92	1.88	8.30	81000	Deceleration	-5	13
2026-01-16	1.88	1.86	5.88	271000	Deceleration	3	16
2026-01-09	1.83	1.85	5.74	91000	Balance	-4	14
2026-01-02	1.90	1.83	9.56	78000	Balance	10	9
2025-12-26	1.90	1.81	12.02	0	Upward Expansion	17	12
2025-12-19	1.90	1.79	12.99	31000	Upward Expansion	34	25
2025-12-12	1.98	1.77	17.11	3000	Upward Expansion	43	38
2025-12-05	2.02	1.74	19.46	176000	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-11-28	2.01	1.72	20.37	19000	Deceleration	49	35
2025-11-21	1.96	1.69	20.68	122000	Deceleration	37	23
2025-11-14	1.92	1.67	12.19	14000	Deceleration	21	15
2025-11-07	1.96	1.65	15.71	74000	Deceleration	31	26
2025-10-31	1.88	1.63	12.65	250000	Deceleration	28	29
2025-10-24	1.79	1.60	6.34	435000	Deceleration	32	29
2025-10-17	1.77	1.59	9.02	768000	Deceleration	41	29
2025-10-10	1.99	1.57	17.78	269000	Upward Expansion	50	48
2025-10-03	2.05	1.55	17.80	231000	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-09-26	2.07	1.52	23.93	93000	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-09-19	2.16	1.50	27.54	221000	Upward Expansion	67	88
2025-09-12	2.25	1.47	33.94	47000	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-09-05	2.23	1.44	38.20	305000	Upward Expansion	90	92
2025-08-29	2.17	1.41	36.81	2003000	Upward Expansion	92	74
2025-08-22	1.86	1.39	16.40	1145000	Upward Expansion	86	68
2025-08-15	1.60	1.37	0.27	198000	Upward Expansion	65	78
2025-08-08	1.62	1.36	2.67	446000	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-01	1.69	1.34	8.15	148000	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-07-25	1.69	1.33	4.03	94000	Upward Expansion	91	93
2025-07-18	1.65	1.31	3.42	1505000	Upward Expansion	91	84
2025-07-11	1.48	1.29	-4.98	659000	Upward Expansion	83	72
2025-07-04	1.35	1.29	-12.93	9000	Balance	54	50
2025-06-27	1.34	1.28	-15.55	55000	Balance	51	39
2025-06-20	1.35	1.28	-13.02	119000	Balance	50	33
2025-06-13	1.34	1.29	-15.54	273000	Balance	18	10
2025-06-06	1.35	1.29	-15.14	194000	Balance	-17	9
2025-05-30	1.24	1.30	-20.96	182000	Balance	-49	37
2025-05-23	1.22	1.30	-23.91	412000	Balance	-54	24
2025-05-16	1.26	1.31	-21.24	70000	Balance	-34	15
2025-05-09	1.27	1.31	-19.63	104000	Balance	-33	14
2025-05-02	1.31	1.32	-16.15	42000	Balance	-29	13
2025-04-25	1.32	1.32	-13.09	197000	Balance	-41	27
2025-04-18	1.25	1.33	-14.96	187000	Balance	-52	40
2025-04-11	1.24	1.33	-13.29	497000	Balance	-51	40
2025-04-04	1.23	1.34	-20.94	549000	Balance	-47	33
2025-03-28	1.28	1.34	-19.55	503000	Balance	-35	18
2025-03-21	1.31	1.34	-18.44	129000	Balance	-27	14
2025-03-14	1.28	1.34	-20.99	135000	Balance	-28	12
2025-03-07	1.34	1.35	-17.92	272000	Balance	-9	8
2025-02-28	1.30	1.35	-15.57	240000	Balance	-11	12
2025-02-21	1.36	1.35	-13.33	104000	Balance	11	16
2025-02-14	1.35	1.35	-10.25	216000	Downward Expansion	-20	19
2025-02-07	1.38	1.35	-1.34	110000	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2025-01-31	1.36	1.36	2.20	0	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2025-01-24	1.30	1.36	-0.99	1818000	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-01-17	1.20	1.37	-5.88	125000	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2025-01-10	1.20	1.38	-2.73	44000	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2025-01-03	1.27	1.38	-0.06	61000	Downward Expansion	-60	65
2024-12-27	1.23	1.39	-4.08	335000	Downward Expansion	-58	66
2024-12-20	1.08	1.40	-13.60	295000	Balance	-74	68
2024-12-13	1.25	1.42	-0.77	167000	Balance	-59	43
2024-12-06	1.28	1.43	2.90	199000	Balance	-53	25
2024-11-29	1.33	1.43	10.21	311000	Balance	-9	9
2024-11-22	1.50	1.41	26.58	212000	Deceleration	51	35
2024-11-15	1.55	1.39	31.35	791000	Deceleration	50	24
2024-11-08	1.41	1.36	13.82	239000	Deceleration	20	9
2024-11-01	1.41	1.33	16.51	67000	Deceleration	32	13
2024-10-25	1.37	1.31	14.29	878000	Deceleration	40	23
2024-10-18	1.41	1.29	17.84	515000	Deceleration	51	35
2024-10-11	1.45	1.27	20.13	343000	Deceleration	52	37
2024-10-04	1.49	1.25	16.98	3142000	Deceleration	51	33
2024-09-27	1.50	1.22	31.41	854000	Deceleration	53	27
2024-09-20	1.35	1.19	35.77	307000	Deceleration	14	14
2024-09-13	1.32	1.17	41.90	196000	Deceleration	16	15
2024-09-06	1.32	1.15	43.83	148000	Deceleration	22	21
2024-08-30	1.38	1.13	48.43	110000	Deceleration	28	39
2024-08-23	1.37	1.11	53.38	100000	Deceleration	29	31
2024-08-16	1.40	1.09	61.52	62000	Deceleration	38	28
2024-08-09	1.37	1.06	64.47	207000	Deceleration	37	25
2024-08-02	1.37	1.04	69.51	73000	Deceleration	39	25
2024-07-26	1.38	1.02	73.65	398000	Deceleration	42	30
2024-07-19	1.39	0.9913	74.73	80000	Deceleration	46	39
2024-07-12	1.41	0.966	72.50	812000	Deceleration	47	44
2024-07-05	1.48	0.9407	90.04	178000	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-06-28	1.55	0.9127	104.67	1013000	Upward Expansion	69	61
2024-06-21	1.45	0.8847	93.25	559000	Upward Expansion	64	62
2024-06-14	1.43	0.8553	96.21	237000	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-06-07	1.52	0.8243	108.95	94000	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-05-31	1.50	0.7903	115.38	358000	Upward Expansion	72	90
2024-05-24	1.54	0.7565	121.08	1391000	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-05-17	1.64	0.7225	130.38	2008000	Upward Expansion	93	96
2024-05-10	1.37	0.6852	104.22	8541000	Upward Expansion	88	80
2024-05-03	0.76	0.6562	18.94	1794000	Upward Expansion	41	18
2024-04-26	0.70	0.6478	15.16	681000	Upward Expansion	32	15
2024-04-19	0.67	0.641	20.29	737000	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-04-12	0.74	0.635	29.52	49000	Upward Expansion	54	46
2024-04-05	0.75	0.6265	31.92	192000	Upward Expansion	54	44
2024-03-29	0.81	0.6182	44.98	273000	Upward Expansion	71	51
2024-03-22	0.75	0.6073	35.79	611000	Deceleration	62	34
2024-03-15	0.68	0.5983	22.57	146000	Deceleration	35	20
2024-03-08	0.69	0.593	27.90	447000	Deceleration	39	24
2024-03-01	0.70	0.5863	28.66	108000	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-02-23	0.67	0.5817	23.01	118000	Upward Expansion	52	34
2024-02-16	0.71	0.578	34.28	20000	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-02-09	0.71	0.5723	40.38	45000	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-02-02	0.75	0.5673	51.42	204000	Upward Expansion	69	48
2024-01-26	0.76	0.561	50.99	1278000	Upward Expansion	76	49
2024-01-19	0.63	0.554	31.49	19000	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-01-12	0.68	0.551	34.22	139000	Upward Expansion	69	49
2024-01-05	0.65	0.5463	26.66	22000	Upward Expansion	64	50
2023-12-29	0.65	0.5417	23.34	0	Upward Expansion	65	55
2023-12-22	0.63	0.5367	25.05	405000	Upward Expansion	63	78
2023-12-15	0.65	0.534	25.45	781000	Upward Expansion	67	81
2023-12-08	0.64	0.532	26.47	512000	Rotation Up	69	80
2023-12-01	0.71	0.531	36.55	1914000	Rotation Up	60	77
2023-11-24	0.57	0.5297	6.06	677000	Rotation Up	12	12
2023-11-17	0.50	0.5333	-6.61	10000	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2023-11-10	0.50	0.5387	-5.42	400000	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2023-11-03	0.485	0.546	-10.55	0	Downward Expansion	-48	23
2023-10-27	0.52	0.5525	-2.61	0	Downward Expansion	-30	19
2023-10-20	0.52	0.5578	-1.52	25000	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-10-13	0.50	0.5605	-8.82	20000	Downward Expansion	-41	28

Price vs TrendBelow-1.9%

Trend directionFalling-5.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+17.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.6%

Price momentumNegative-12.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.18×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-41 / ±100

+8.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

29 /100

+6.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2165 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion5

Deceleration46

Rotation Down49

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 24%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-10-02	Established	-9.6%
Balance	2026-03-06	2026-04-24	Developing	-2.7%
Deceleration	2026-01-16	2026-02-27	Developing	+3.2%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-09	New	-3.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	-5.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-28	Developing	+13.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-10-10	Established	+34.5%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-07-04	Established	-0.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-02-14	Developing	+9.8%
Balance	2024-11-29	2024-12-20	New	-18.8%
Deceleration	2024-07-12	2024-11-22	Established	+6.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-29	2024-07-05	Established	+82.7%
Deceleration	2024-03-08	2024-03-22	New	+8.7%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-15	2024-03-01	Developing	+7.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing25

Stage 3 · Distribution37

Stage 4 · Declining75

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 40/100
Current Relative Strength: -0.94
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -12.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.9%
Real Estate regime cohort: 21th percentile146 in cohort

Test 2165 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume11.61×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.18×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2165 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 1.56falling

Slow Activity HKD 1.61falling

Trend Reference HKD 1.68-1.9% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 1.41+17.1% close margin

Structural low HKD 1.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +28.1%

From structural high -20.5%

From structural low +26.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+2.1%-13.4% to +9.8%	+61.5%	+30.8%	-1.7%	+84.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+1.1%-12.6% to +28.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.2%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+17.2%+8.9% to +25.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+14.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+126.3%+54.5% to +198.0%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+114.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2165 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

RMI Reversal Map