Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

ARCON Stage Analysis

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close MXN 128.10Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -89−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 83/100directional strength

Maturity 21/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -19.3%MXN 158.79 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	128.10	144.74	-6.42	5339	Downward Expansion	-89	83
2026-09-25	133.00	145.43	-3.54	0	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2026-09-18	131.73	145.93	-1.97	260	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2026-09-11	137.67	146.47	1.43	0	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2026-09-04	137.67	146.60	-0.10	72	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2026-08-28	134.21	147.11	-3.65	8086	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2026-08-21	130.77	147.09	-6.71	0	Rotation Down	-95	95
2026-08-14	137.39	147.18	-0.25	187	Rotation Down	-57	65
2026-08-07	146.68	147.05	2.26	0	Rotation Down	-35	55
2026-07-31	142.50	146.80	-0.80	0	Rotation Down	-41	64
2026-07-24	143.00	146.68	0.13	0	Rotation Down	-29	53
2026-07-17	143.00	146.55	-0.46	0	Deceleration	-26	35
2026-07-10	145.23	146.41	1.05	0	Deceleration	-1	10
2026-07-03	145.23	146.20	-0.07	0	Deceleration	1	6
2026-06-26	150.80	145.75	3.20	0	Deceleration	19	16
2026-06-19	149.58	145.11	1.37	0	Deceleration	23	20
2026-06-12	149.57	144.52	0.66	0	Deceleration	26	19
2026-06-05	142.63	143.92	-1.67	0	Deceleration	10	14
2026-05-29	150.13	143.46	-0.49	15953	Upward Expansion	43	29
2026-05-22	154.93	142.45	2.78	25830	Upward Expansion	67	52
2026-05-15	150.93	141.28	0.45	0	Upward Expansion	65	76
2026-05-08	150.93	140.25	-2.49	5204	Upward Expansion	66	74
2026-05-01	156.93	139.21	3.94	33500	Upward Expansion	73	62
2026-04-24	163.26	138.11	5.68	0	Upward Expansion	93	69
2026-04-17	148.00	136.80	-5.21	0	Upward Expansion	53	42
2026-04-10	148.00	136.43	-5.99	43200	Upward Expansion	54	45
2026-04-03	147.90	136.06	-6.27	6	Upward Expansion	67	55
2026-03-27	144.43	135.69	-5.12	21077	Upward Expansion	66	61
2026-03-20	148.93	135.44	0.93	0	Upward Expansion	71	85
2026-03-13	148.93	135.03	-2.12	0	Upward Expansion	75	90
2026-03-06	148.93	134.63	-5.13	26000	Upward Expansion	75	82
2026-02-27	147.93	134.23	-11.73	0	Upward Expansion	76	91
2026-02-20	147.93	133.86	-12.43	10	Upward Expansion	84	88
2026-02-13	141.73	133.49	-16.91	4242	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-02-06	152.93	133.33	-10.36	10150	Rotation Up	92	70
2026-01-30	133.53	132.91	-18.61	0	Rotation Up	13	28
2026-01-23	133.53	133.30	-20.09	0	Rotation Up	24	36
2026-01-16	133.53	133.71	-19.61	37	Rotation Up	40	68
2026-01-09	139.02	134.12	-15.78	0	Rotation Up	34	77
2026-01-02	139.02	134.33	-14.05	0	Rotation Up	41	79
2025-12-26	139.02	134.55	-16.75	0	Rotation Up	51	83
2025-12-19	138.96	134.76	-15.38	0	Rotation Up	50	60
2025-12-12	138.96	134.98	-17.06	13	Rotation Up	33	49
2025-12-05	131.68	135.19	-20.36	0	Downward Expansion	-14	41
2025-11-28	131.68	135.76	-21.27	0	Downward Expansion	-25	50
2025-11-21	131.68	136.33	-19.75	0	Downward Expansion	-38	46
2025-11-14	131.68	136.83	-21.04	1326	Downward Expansion	-54	56
2025-11-07	128.78	137.32	-24.81	70	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2025-10-31	119.89	138.03	-29.98	0	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2025-10-24	119.89	139.36	-28.96	0	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2025-10-17	119.89	140.87	-30.41	0	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2025-10-10	119.89	142.49	-29.89	18	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2025-10-03	123.83	143.79	-30.08	0	Downward Expansion	-94	78
2025-09-26	123.83	144.90	-31.25	12	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2025-09-19	136.88	145.99	-23.25	0	Downward Expansion	-57	65
2025-09-12	136.88	147.16	-24.47	0	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2025-09-05	136.88	148.33	-23.33	0	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2025-08-29	136.88	149.18	-21.60	0	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2025-08-22	136.88	150.07	-22.72	0	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2025-08-15	136.88	150.96	-22.04	0	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-08-08	136.88	151.85	-22.09	0	Downward Expansion	-73	91
2025-08-01	136.88	152.75	-20.91	0	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2025-07-25	136.88	153.64	-21.98	0	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2025-07-18	136.88	154.53	-20.99	7	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2025-07-11	140.29	155.42	-19.82	6010	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2025-07-04	145.30	156.20	-19.28	7242	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2025-06-27	145.80	156.81	-18.40	0	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2025-06-20	145.74	157.27	-17.10	13000	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2025-06-13	145.44	158.06	-19.17	0	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2025-06-06	145.44	159.14	-20.30	0	Downward Expansion	-64	68
2025-05-30	145.44	160.07	-20.34	0	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2025-05-23	145.44	161.27	-21.29	0	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2025-05-16	145.44	162.52	-20.86	10059	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-05-09	148.73	164.13	-17.33	0	Downward Expansion	-63	73
2025-05-02	148.73	165.71	-16.52	8000	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2025-04-25	146.58	167.30	-19.31	0	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2025-04-18	146.58	168.07	-13.98	20	Downward Expansion	-77	62
2025-04-11	149.98	168.72	-9.54	5657	Downward Expansion	-72	39
2025-04-04	159.91	169.32	-3.64	18521	Downward Expansion	-57	27
2025-03-28	165.03	169.78	-3.72	13	Downward Expansion	-47	31
2025-03-21	168.63	169.93	-0.63	17137	Downward Expansion	-43	40
2025-03-14	158.66	170.29	-6.18	22088	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2025-03-07	157.26	170.62	-7.84	5022	Downward Expansion	-78	50
2025-02-28	156.66	171.02	-7.48	6488	Downward Expansion	-69	40
2025-02-21	171.97	171.72	-1.46	0	Downward Expansion	-3	27
2025-02-14	171.97	171.86	-2.27	1905	Downward Expansion	-21	30
2025-02-07	162.15	171.69	-5.84	23417	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2025-01-31	163.65	172.07	-2.22	0	Downward Expansion	-47	64
2025-01-24	163.65	171.75	-2.75	0	Downward Expansion	-47	62
2025-01-17	163.65	171.75	-0.43	0	Downward Expansion	-56	60
2025-01-10	163.65	171.61	0.28	0	Rotation Down	-58	59
2025-01-03	163.65	171.50	1.43	0	Rotation Down	-33	52
2024-12-27	163.65	171.69	0.62	0	Rotation Down	-33	50
2024-12-20	163.59	171.56	-0.21	0	Rotation Down	-25	52
2024-12-13	163.59	171.25	-4.33	8	Rotation Down	-28	53
2024-12-06	163.59	171.83	-4.11	20226	Balance	-27	47
2024-11-29	159.82	172.49	-3.79	90	Balance	-33	33
2024-11-22	169.34	173.29	0.48	13029	Balance	11	17
2024-11-15	177.75	173.78	5.35	14609	Balance	30	19
2024-11-08	173.31	173.51	-0.09	5193	Upward Expansion	33	19
2024-11-01	181.54	173.82	7.22	82	Upward Expansion	54	51
2024-10-25	183.04	173.61	5.93	46	Upward Expansion	56	62
2024-10-18	193.63	173.28	9.52	24	Upward Expansion	60	65
2024-10-11	196.19	172.87	12.22	54	Balance	66	59
2024-10-04	196.50	172.71	12.30	71	Balance	36	29
2024-09-27	169.57	172.23	-3.13	20615	Balance	-30	15
2024-09-20	165.99	173.22	-4.09	52	Balance	-36	17
2024-09-13	167.99	174.38	-2.55	5	Balance	-29	12
2024-09-06	173.65	175.48	2.52	59	Balance	-13	7
2024-08-30	169.51	176.34	-3.15	116	Balance	-15	7
2024-08-23	179.48	177.71	1.56	76	Balance	-3	8
2024-08-16	168.51	179.20	-5.58	645	Balance	-15	11
2024-08-09	169.51	179.56	-3.26	42	Balance	-14	13
2024-08-02	177.49	180.55	3.13	172	Downward Expansion	-15	17
2024-07-26	176.17	181.28	1.65	133	Downward Expansion	-28	15
2024-07-19	167.05	182.38	-4.78	5	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-07-12	173.50	183.79	-3.17	428	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-07-05	153.98	185.00	-9.53	153	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2024-06-28	163.53	186.84	-3.99	71	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-06-21	159.48	187.80	-6.77	1274	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-06-14	160.47	188.51	-5.02	542	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2024-06-07	169.45	189.62	-0.90	231	Downward Expansion	-59	65
2024-05-31	159.48	189.58	-10.18	303	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2024-05-24	154.49	189.67	-13.28	115	Downward Expansion	-79	50
2024-05-17	180.99	190.06	-2.19	13	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2024-05-10	183.40	190.14	-0.85	217	Rotation Down	-42	29
2024-05-03	183.70	189.27	0.63	12	Rotation Down	-18	22
2024-04-26	184.20	188.53	0.02	92	Rotation Down	-31	38
2024-04-19	169.64	187.77	-4.33	33	Rotation Down	-44	55
2024-04-12	182.40	187.44	1.80	5407	Rotation Down	-24	45
2024-04-05	175.36	187.01	-4.39	15	Rotation Down	-29	51
2024-03-29	173.05	186.41	-4.30	37	Deceleration	-34	45
2024-03-22	181.41	185.95	1.86	127	Deceleration	-6	19
2024-03-15	191.31	185.48	8.43	268	Deceleration	8	14
2024-03-08	182.14	184.90	6.04	7	Deceleration	-1	10
2024-03-01	199.28	183.71	15.17	1332	Deceleration	35	18
2024-02-23	200.92	181.94	14.42	0	Deceleration	48	30
2024-02-16	200.92	180.13	13.88	22	Deceleration	52	39
2024-02-09	199.28	178.31	12.99	189	Deceleration	51	33
2024-02-02	210.74	176.55	18.43	203	Deceleration	61	39
2024-01-26	224.19	174.40	30.08	69	Deceleration	68	41
2024-01-19	179.35	171.81	7.82	21	Upward Expansion	37	27
2024-01-12	199.28	170.71	20.16	49	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-01-05	199.28	168.95	19.86	133	Upward Expansion	65	59
2023-12-29	209.24	167.18	24.13	111	Upward Expansion	71	86
2023-12-22	209.24	165.08	25.15	127	Upward Expansion	76	90
2023-12-15	209.80	162.99	26.85	11	Upward Expansion	84	92
2023-12-08	209.20	160.87	33.86	360	Upward Expansion	89	91
2023-12-01	192.17	158.78	25.21	10	Upward Expansion	78	81
2023-11-24	180.91	157.25	20.93	38	Upward Expansion	66	63
2023-11-17	193.76	156.10	31.01	515	Upward Expansion	84	58
2023-11-10	168.36	154.52	18.00	694	Deceleration	54	38
2023-11-03	161.98	153.78	14.19	6	Deceleration	51	35
2023-10-27	166.37	153.26	23.37	166	Deceleration	53	39
2023-10-20	183.30	152.60	38.70	15	Deceleration	85	56
2023-10-13	157.40	151.36	17.36	5	Deceleration	40	27

Price vs TrendBelow-11.5%

Trend directionFalling-1.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-19.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-6.3%

Price momentumNegative-13.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.41×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-89 / ±100

-22.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

83 /100

-4.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ARCON Directional State ↗ ARCON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration42

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-4.5%
Rotation Down	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	-8.6%
Deceleration	2026-06-05	2026-07-17	Developing	+0.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-29	Established	+5.9%
Rotation Up	2025-12-12	2026-02-06	Developing	+10.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-12-05	Extended	-19.5%
Rotation Down	2024-12-13	2025-01-10	Developing	+0.0%
Balance	2024-11-15	2024-12-06	New	-8.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-10.5%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-10-11	Developing	+15.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-08-02	Developing	-1.9%
Rotation Down	2024-04-05	2024-05-10	Developing	+4.6%
Deceleration	2024-01-26	2024-03-29	Developing	-22.8%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-17	2024-01-19	Developing	-7.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing61

Stage 2 · Advancing11

Stage 3 · Distribution37

Stage 4 · Declining89

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 66/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.42
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -13.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 70th percentile47 in cohort

Test ARCON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.92×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.41×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ARCON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 132.05falling

Slow Activity MXN 141.28falling

Trend Reference MXN 144.74-11.5% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 158.79-19.3% close margin

Structural low MXN 128.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.6%

Annualized volatility +25.5%

From structural high -21.5%

From structural low +6.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-0.9%-11.3% to +16.4%	+27.8%	+61.1%	-2.6%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-6.8%-12.4% to +33.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-6.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-2.1%-16.4% to +33.6%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-5.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+3.8%-19.6% to +33.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-13.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ARCON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map