Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Industrials

IEX Stage Analysis

IDEX Corporation

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 232.99Tenure NewBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 45โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 22/100directional strength
Maturity 37/100lifecycle context
Confidence 91/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +17.6%USD 198.12 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-02232.99216.326.313537428Deceleration4522
2026-09-25229.36215.124.803217078Deceleration3422
2026-09-18223.02214.443.582966511Deceleration3122
2026-09-11223.51213.904.072003495Upward Expansion3821
2026-09-04223.04213.433.402615416Upward Expansion5637
2026-08-28229.56213.026.802435209Upward Expansion6151
2026-08-21234.39211.969.903223032Upward Expansion6465
2026-08-14238.94210.6410.852660007Upward Expansion7565
2026-08-07234.46209.219.332612983Upward Expansion7353
2026-07-31230.45207.5111.665973039Upward Expansion7049
2026-07-24223.27205.769.773227231Upward Expansion5944
2026-07-17224.94204.2810.033437088Upward Expansion6554
2026-07-10222.16202.677.072854611Upward Expansion6467
2026-07-03223.09201.199.012660784Upward Expansion6671
2026-06-26226.45199.6313.143388146Upward Expansion7574
2026-06-19224.20197.839.544366725Upward Expansion7563
2026-06-12217.78196.017.472906189Upward Expansion6947
2026-06-05214.65194.196.513040421Upward Expansion6543
2026-05-29210.83192.601.893431416Upward Expansion5944
2026-05-22208.78191.242.182897859Upward Expansion6061
2026-05-15206.97189.841.973140939Upward Expansion6370
2026-05-08216.16188.456.433427706Upward Expansion7578
2026-05-01214.18186.587.724794354Upward Expansion7369
2026-04-24204.03184.943.432698903Deceleration4939
2026-04-17205.20183.464.393733243Deceleration5129
2026-04-10200.39181.926.403330479Deceleration2820
2026-04-03189.81180.544.283053315Deceleration1926
2026-03-27185.90179.645.425254830Deceleration1928
2026-03-20183.47178.871.516398027Deceleration2725
2026-03-13187.52178.311.623405566Upward Expansion4939
2026-03-06197.21177.484.992967210Upward Expansion6661
2026-02-27208.74176.138.702737395Upward Expansion7281
2026-02-20206.76174.416.982833570Upward Expansion7188
2026-02-13209.68173.649.565896194Upward Expansion8292
2026-02-06210.63172.698.578073166Upward Expansion9296
2026-01-30197.86171.651.664142337Upward Expansion8392
2026-01-23194.59171.01-0.202829890Upward Expansion8286
2026-01-16196.24170.31-0.223672242Upward Expansion9085
2026-01-09183.41169.45-7.542441771Upward Expansion7568
2026-01-02177.80169.17-9.471685319Rotation Up6364
2025-12-26179.05169.26-10.291364291Rotation Up4260
2025-12-19176.52169.23-10.834350622Rotation Up3656
2025-12-12177.67169.24-10.713287749Rotation Up3251
2025-12-05176.29169.56-12.523177226Balance3141
2025-11-28172.70169.69-14.662164920Balance415
2025-11-21169.44169.86-13.883095896Balance-410
2025-11-14163.33169.87-19.262933178Balance-2016
2025-11-07166.77169.79-18.183650916Balance-1416
2025-10-31170.25169.74-18.504647283Downward Expansion-1716
2025-10-24166.76169.38-20.232105334Downward Expansion-3519
2025-10-17165.14169.74-19.983308659Downward Expansion-4123
2025-10-10160.02170.18-21.632740427Downward Expansion-5937
2025-10-03165.09170.81-21.663087230Downward Expansion-5738
2025-09-26159.51171.45-24.013095546Downward Expansion-6044
2025-09-19159.19172.48-24.964894790Downward Expansion-6344
2025-09-12158.72173.49-24.823219917Downward Expansion-6644
2025-09-05163.05174.58-22.062962602Downward Expansion-5843
2025-08-29162.62175.55-22.482860890Downward Expansion-5866
2025-08-22166.64177.47-21.113919612Downward Expansion-5869
2025-08-15162.89179.11-23.113900391Downward Expansion-5867
2025-08-08156.45180.73-25.854098048Rotation Down-7265
2025-08-01157.30182.23-24.096692941Rotation Down-6732
2025-07-25183.57183.74-14.082571490Balance-212
2025-07-18181.29184.50-14.293396548Balance-118
2025-07-11179.40185.38-15.014111312Balance-3320
2025-07-04178.48186.67-16.022258762Balance-3825
2025-06-27173.63188.21-17.203414888Balance-4027
2025-06-20170.51189.94-16.254605307Balance-4528
2025-06-13175.10191.83-14.512776812Balance-2717
2025-06-06180.51193.42-12.512574537Downward Expansion-2718
2025-05-30178.15194.86-12.572306034Downward Expansion-2822
2025-05-23176.86195.96-12.092891898Downward Expansion-3025
2025-05-16187.24196.68-9.772828419Downward Expansion-3426
2025-05-09180.00197.30-9.162935737Downward Expansion-4737
2025-05-02178.01198.19-11.064196484Downward Expansion-6149
2025-04-25169.72199.12-13.233902944Downward Expansion-6661
2025-04-18160.84200.45-14.532474632Downward Expansion-7780
2025-04-11165.32201.87-14.066068755Downward Expansion-7478
2025-04-04159.41202.85-13.073702301Downward Expansion-8989
2025-03-28177.48203.87-12.622169254Downward Expansion-7381
2025-03-21178.46204.67-14.063232821Downward Expansion-7684
2025-03-14178.94205.34-14.033181704Downward Expansion-7983
2025-03-07184.11205.77-14.203887247Rotation Down-7380
2025-02-28190.65205.94-14.492466877Rotation Down-3967
2025-02-21189.33205.90-16.481696698Rotation Down-4562
2025-02-14191.51206.29-17.473390286Deceleration-3434
2025-02-07192.23206.50-16.494513912Deceleration-138
2025-01-31220.06206.74-5.171754083Deceleration4422
2025-01-24215.80205.71-8.271346914Deceleration1615
2025-01-17211.60205.03-8.792378507Deceleration319
2025-01-10201.47204.54-10.902382446Deceleration-827
2025-01-03202.45204.24-12.541185729Deceleration521
2024-12-27206.45204.03-11.701148393Deceleration2521
2024-12-20207.69203.90-11.024694793Upward Expansion4029
2024-12-13218.08203.95-8.701971914Upward Expansion6256
2024-12-06224.64203.88-6.862585533Upward Expansion6679
2024-11-29225.54203.69-5.972205981Upward Expansion6882
2024-11-22227.37203.29-4.362726954Upward Expansion7884
2024-11-15222.80202.83-4.934019887Rotation Up7674
2024-11-08223.47202.74-6.853493260Rotation Up5452
2024-11-01211.28202.80-7.973926917Rotation Up4028
2024-10-25198.34203.48-15.081563703Rotation Up1015
2024-10-18205.88204.75-13.161759020Rotation Up2042
2024-10-11206.82205.76-12.401802298Balance2034
2024-10-04205.77206.61-12.252359284Balance-117
2024-09-27209.55207.46-10.862877527Balance410
2024-09-20203.46208.20-13.406243726Downward Expansion-2514
2024-09-13194.74209.07-16.372173012Downward Expansion-4022
2024-09-06190.21209.92-15.522410224Downward Expansion-5329
2024-08-30201.27210.95-14.792178516Downward Expansion-4127
2024-08-23198.75211.37-16.152307369Downward Expansion-5641
2024-08-16191.62211.49-18.572393574Downward Expansion-5944
2024-08-09189.43211.79-16.823085829Downward Expansion-6746
2024-08-02189.22212.15-17.403039124Downward Expansion-7043
2024-07-26201.25212.64-14.502552178Downward Expansion-4839
2024-07-19197.85212.92-17.032413564Downward Expansion-6150
2024-07-12199.30213.23-18.412030644Downward Expansion-6456
2024-07-05189.14213.39-22.172127482Downward Expansion-7982
2024-06-28195.46213.67-18.472954737Rotation Down-6982
2024-06-21196.92213.69-18.312056864Rotation Down-4275
2024-06-14192.58213.54-19.932110385Rotation Down-5780
2024-06-07196.03213.49-17.542302246Rotation Down-5173
2024-05-31202.69213.13-14.043332160Deceleration-4661
2024-05-24209.01212.66-12.052281657Deceleration-1934
2024-05-17215.99211.83-9.411476826Deceleration-125
2024-05-10219.03210.84-6.882579320Deceleration427
2024-05-03213.47209.99-7.831988545Deceleration626
2024-04-26213.70209.48-7.492155216Deceleration2025
2024-04-19219.88209.04-2.551603953Upward Expansion4635
2024-04-12225.33208.35-3.481461300Upward Expansion6356
2024-04-05231.83207.71-2.461398640Upward Expansion6765
2024-03-29236.33206.92-1.721067826Upward Expansion7581
2024-03-22236.18206.37-1.831562293Upward Expansion7990
2024-03-15232.40205.75-1.591953961Upward Expansion7590
2024-03-08231.07205.04-2.541271448Upward Expansion7690
2024-03-01231.92204.51-2.812002804Upward Expansion8493
2024-02-23229.57203.86-3.231633097Rotation Up8693
2024-02-16220.30203.34-5.972517376Rotation Up5073
2024-02-09221.00202.82-6.413304992Balance5461
2024-02-02213.76202.18-8.582742300Balance3827
2024-01-26202.55201.77-12.531429794Balance16
2024-01-19200.51201.90-13.071504965Rotation Up1519
2024-01-12200.39201.71-12.611268990Rotation Up1936
2024-01-05203.90201.74-9.991883464Rotation Up2137
2023-12-29209.62201.56-9.421091235Rotation Up3238
2023-12-22206.98201.25-10.731674941Downward Expansion2730
2023-12-15204.06200.83-11.682265502Downward Expansion-1119
2023-12-08197.77200.57-12.831844849Downward Expansion-3423
2023-12-01196.04200.62-13.892421550Downward Expansion-4228
2023-11-24192.34200.82-15.303340805Downward Expansion-5842
2023-11-17191.18200.98-15.451940999Downward Expansion-6254
2023-11-10185.11201.56-16.721973509Downward Expansion-7078
2023-11-03188.44202.39-14.523693515Downward Expansion-6678
2023-10-27184.33203.02-11.964372929Downward Expansion-8285
2023-10-20186.08204.24-13.692938201Rotation Down-7679
2023-10-13193.72205.04-12.582194164Rotation Down-4861
Price vs TrendAbove+7.7%
Trend directionRising+5.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+17.6%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+4.0%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+6.3%
Relative strength directionWeakening-2.7%
Price momentumPositive+22.8%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.35ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

45 / ยฑ100

-10.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

22 /100

-15.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance43
Rotation Up33
Upward Expansion56
Deceleration86
Rotation Down25
Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 30%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-182026-10-02New+4.5%
Upward Expansion2026-05-012026-09-11Established+4.4%
Deceleration2026-03-202026-04-24Developing+11.2%
Upward Expansion2026-01-092026-03-13Developing+2.2%
Rotation Up2025-12-122026-01-02New+0.1%
Balance2025-11-072025-12-05Developing+5.7%
Downward Expansion2025-08-152025-10-31Developing+4.5%
Rotation Down2025-08-012025-08-08New-0.5%
Balance2025-06-132025-07-25Developing+4.8%
Downward Expansion2025-03-142025-06-06Established+0.9%
Rotation Down2025-02-212025-03-07New-2.8%
Deceleration2024-12-272025-02-14Developing-7.2%
Upward Expansion2024-11-222024-12-20Developing-8.7%
Rotation Up2024-10-182024-11-15Developing+8.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing16
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution62
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2B ยท Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
79/100
Current Relative Strength
6.31
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+22.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+5.1%
Industrials regime cohort
77th percentile64 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.11ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.35ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 228.10falling
Slow Activity USD 223.70rising
Trend Reference USD 216.32+7.7% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 198.12+17.6% close margin
Structural low USD 186.73shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%
Annualized volatility +15.9%
From structural high -4.4%
From structural low +47.3%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term10+1.3%-12.3% to +14.5%+60.0%+60.0%-1.5%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate6-5.6%-14.0% to +22.2%+33.3%+33.3%-6.9%+0.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5+2.0%-15.9% to +21.6%+60.0%+60.0%-5.8%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3-16.3%-20.6% to +5.1%+33.3%+33.3%-13.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context